Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 458. StormTrackerScott:



No 100 degree temps on that map. Lots of 90s though, except on the coast... where those upper 80s sure feel nice!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Looks to me that 92L is about to run into 40 knots of sheer, is it forecasted to decrease soon or not.
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Quoting 429. 954FtLCane:
I fear red light cameras. I fear arguments on this website..which inevitably happen when there is nothing to track. I fear Tom Brady so I'm kinda happy he has no one to throw to this year.......
You better fear Tony Romo this year. Nice avatar btw.
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850mb vorticity has increased with 93L and the maps are showing that it is establishing an upper level outflow.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting 461. washingtonian115:
Was 93L the wave over land the GFS was picking up on had attained tropical storm status over land?.
I'm pretty sure that is Grothar's Blobzilla. :D...By the way nice to have you back on Washi, it seems as though you brought some luck with you as well as things were getting a bit boring in here without your presence.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
92L is beginning to pull itself together.


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Impressive anticyclonic flow aloft associated with 93L.



This in combination with the ample lower convergence and upper divergence associated with the system, along with the much stronger vorticity signature in the lower to mid-levels of the atmosphere lead me to believe that 93L has much better prospects of developing into a tropical cyclone in the short term.

African CIMSS maps.

However, I'm not too excited about it's future beyond 72 hours. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF runs show the system heading into 18˚N before even reaching 35˚W. This means the system will have to deal with cooler SSTs and far more subsidence, hence why both models keep it relatively weak. Wouldn't doubt to see a Dorian repeat out of 93L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting 452. GTstormChaserCaleb:
12z FIM-9 a little bit stronger with 92L:

. Hello GT, When you say a little stronger , do you mean a hurricane ? And do you think West coast of Florida , to the panhandle?
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475. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 443. LAbonbon:


I get a security certificate error when I hit the link

It's safe.. NAVY & a few NOAA sites have no security cert. Just tell your computer it's okay..
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Quoting 464. catastropheadjuster:


right outside of Mobile,al in Satsuma,al


Looks like you are gonna be experiencing the rain quite often throughout the day.
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Quoting 464. catastropheadjuster:


right outside of Mobile,al in Satsuma,al


No warnings issued for your area. Hazardous Weather Outlook for Mobile area:

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 131401
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 13 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 22.5N 89.0W AT 15/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
13/2100Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 13/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127545
Beautiful Florida day. This makes we want to do a trough dance.

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Quoting 453. CybrTeddy:


Stronger = OTS.
Weaker = west.

Not too hard of a forecast, imo.


Well, 93L jumped off kinda lowish/Southish... did Dean or Felix have the mass it does?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3170
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Looks a though the outer fringes of the Tropical Wave/Invest 92L have just reached Cayman Brac from SE - moderate Squalls, heavy rain and thunder grumbles.

From blue sky and sunshine to black sky and almost a rain squall white out over the ocean - a respite for now but looking at the ocean horizon and Cayman Weather Radar, there is more to come - to be honest, it is welcome rain and a bit of cool.

I just hope 92L moves further West before any development - not that I wish developing systems on anyone.
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Quoting 440. DavidHOUTX:


Erin from 2007 would be the ideal situation for sure!



For Texas, yes. For most of us in OK, that would not be good at this point. Already under a flood watch, and several flood warnings due to the front stalled over us.
Although those in the southwestern portion of OK would agree with you wholeheartedly.
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Gonna take a break until later this evening but here is a re-post of a relevant portion of Dr. Master's excellent summary of the models and their use by NHC:

Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it.


The point is that the exact timing cyclogenesis is impossible to predict; now we watch and wait for the next 72 hours to see what happens with these two invests and the current long-term model runs are essentially useless; everything has to be re-initialized AFTER a TD or TS forms and then trajectories, and potential landfall locations, are plotted by NHC with their best educated guess based on the models (consensus track) as noted above.

Once the storm is within reach of the Noaa planes and AF Hunters, the track models are further fine tuned by recon data as to the storm and surrounding large-scale synoptic features with the resulting NHC 5 day and 3 day tracks as the final and "official" product.

Way too early to try and figure out what will happen with these two invests in terms of their ultimate trajectory and intensity and if they actually develop.

However, the upward climb towards the peak of the season is beginning so please, pace yourselves...... :)
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Quoting 459. LAbonbon:


Works for me. Where are you located?


right outside of Mobile,al in Satsuma,al
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3653
Quoting 455. scott39:
All of the FIRST model runs on the Tropical Atlantic page,have 93L going W over land and into the very Southern BOC.
look at the dates on the model runs. old 93L
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Quoting 445. StormTrackerScott:


98 at my work with a 74 dewpoint. Don't an explosive evening oof thunderstorms is looming for the I-4 corridor so get ready come about 7pm. Some areas could easily get 2" to 4" of rain this evening once the seabreezes collide over or near I-4.



I certainly hope that happens tonight... Because it is getting kinda dry out there. Our local mets say it is unusual for there to be so little rain on the radar like there has the last several days. But every year that I can recall, and I have lived in the area for 24 years, I can always remember there being a brief lull in the wet season pattern during the month of August (usually lasting a week to two weeks at most). So, on that note... bring it!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Was 93L the wave over land the GFS was picking up on had attained tropical storm status over land?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
UKMET

93L


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 27.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 15.08.2013 13.5N 27.0W WEAK

00UTC 16.08.2013 15.7N 28.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2013 16.5N 31.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2013 17.7N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2013 17.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2013 18.5N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2013 18.0N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2013 17.7N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2013 17.5N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


92L


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+84 : 20.0N 94.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2013 20.0N 94.0W WEAK

12UTC 17.08.2013 20.2N 94.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2013 20.5N 95.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2013 21.3N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2013 22.1N 96.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.08.2013 22.6N 96.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting 446. catastropheadjuster:
I know this is off subject but, what's happened to the warnings page I go to it and it will not pull up. does anyone know. Because the weather here is pretty bad raining so hard can't see across the street and lightning and thunder rolling,

sheri


Works for me. Where are you located?
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
Quoting 446. catastropheadjuster:
I know this is off subject but, what's happened to the warnings page I go to it and it will not pull up. does anyone know. Because the weather here is pretty bad raining so hard can't see across the street and lightning and thunder rolling,

sheri


What warnings page would that be? The severe weather page works fine, although clicking on the map has never worked for me in Chrome.
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Quoting 452. GTstormChaserCaleb:
12z FIM-9 a little bit stronger with 92L:


wow!!
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All of the FIRST model runs on the Tropical Atlantic page,have 93L going W over land and into the very Southern BOC.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting 449. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Teddy, In terms of track how do you see 93L going?


Stronger = OTS.
Weaker = west.

Not too hard of a forecast, imo.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23566
12z FIM-9 a little bit stronger with 92L:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
451. ricderr
7:03 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Caleb is great poster on here and for someone to come on here and attack him in that manner is unexceptable.


from the old blog....and rather than attack the poster who attacked me....let me at least defend myself....

in my post...i did not reference the poster that i was critical of....as...it is not my intention to attack or even embarrass....i admit my writing style is irrelevant and an attempt to be humorous...however to take the extra steps to state that i'm attacking someone overstates the situation...i also feel that the fact that my post received a plus 10 shows that your opinion is of the minority,,,

however...you are allowed to have you own opinion and voice it as per the WU guidelines...just as i'm allowed to refute it

now as to why i posted as i did....i would agree with you that the poster is an asset to this site....and has offered many insightful posts...with that said though...i would disagree with the premise of the post i referenced....we can always speculate about what a future storm might or might not do...we have a tropical wave....and there is a chance as he stated that it could indeed affect the tampa area...there is also a chance....more remote...that it could affect the texas coast....and we that study these things...know that models are highly unpredictable with locating a close proximity of where these storms may form....and we also know that even a hundred miles from one point to another ...can severely affect direction....so my point is....speculation such as was given...is pointless...if we want to look at this in a relevant manner...would we not be looking for conditions changing in favor or not in favor of development until the time we actually see something developing???? (puns intended)

now always feel free to disagree with me as you see fit....as i will do the same..but to charge me with attacking someone....well...it's no more than an attack yourself especially when unfounded
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
450. Stormchaser2007
7:03 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Interesting.

OSCAT had a very decent amount of 35-40 knot winds with 93L

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
449. Tropicsweatherpr
7:03 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 438. CybrTeddy:
A few observations about 93L, which I'm actually more interested in than 92L.

93L appears to be quite a large system, this will help it battle off the stable environment noted by the GFS. However, because of that large size it won't be able to consolidate too quickly. You'll recall Dorian was a rather small system, at least compared to 93L, and took much quicker to develop. That being said, because Dorian organized so quickly it separated itself from the ITCZ before it was ready to do so and caused it to die from the stable air it ran right into. If 93L stays weak and disorganized for the next few days, which I believe it will based off the global models, then it may have a better opportunity to become a more significant system later on.


Hi Teddy, In terms of track how do you see 93L going?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14007
448. washingtonian115
7:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 438. CybrTeddy:
A few observations about 93L, which I'm actually more interested in than 92L.

93L appears to be quite a large system, this will help it battle off the stable environment noted by the GFS. However, because of that large size it won't be able to consolidate too quickly. You'll recall Dorian was a rather small system, at least compared to 93L, and took much quicker to develop. That being said, because Dorian organized so quickly it separated itself from the ITCZ before it was ready to do so and caused it to die from the stable air it ran right into. If 93L stays weak and disorganized for the next few days, which I believe it will based off the global models, then it may have a better opportunity to become a more significant system later on.
When is the earliest time you see 93L acquiring a name?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
447. AtHomeInTX
7:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 434. wunderweatherman123:
fish storm on the euro run?


Hasn't stopped running yet. And I can't tell on that model.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
446. catastropheadjuster
7:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
I know this is off subject but, what's happened to the warnings page I go to it and it will not pull up. does anyone know. Because the weather here is pretty bad raining so hard can't see across the street and lightning and thunder rolling,

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3653
445. StormTrackerScott
7:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 424. ecflweatherfan:
I don't know how much credibility to put into this, but an observation from DeLand, FL is reporting 100F and a dewpoint of 73F. That would make the heat index 111F. I will gladly dispute that 100F temperature, as nowhere close by is even close to that temperature. Sanford, some 25 miles away is 95, Daytona Beach is 20 miles away 92 degrees. Everyone else in central Florida ranges from 86-92 degrees.


98 at my work with a 74 dewpoint. Don't worry an explosive evening of thunderstorms is looming for the I-4 corridor so get ready come about 7pm. Some areas could easily get 2" to 4" of rain this evening once the seabreezes collide over or near I-4.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
444. mitchelace5
7:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 437. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This afternoons model runs and especially tonight's ones will be very interesting.


Hey Caleb, do you think the East Atlantic wave would just be a fish storm?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
443. LAbonbon
7:01 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 415. Stormchaser2007:
92L and 93L both up on the Navy FNMOC site

Link


I get a security certificate error when I hit the link
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
442. Rmadillo
7:00 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 429. 954FtLCane:
I fear red light cameras. I fear arguments on this website..which inevitably happen when there is nothing to track. I fear Tom Brady so I'm kinda happy he has no one to throw to this year.......


I understand what you are saying, and am therefore fearless of it.

Meanwhile I wait for model suite for 92L, the most interesting thing thus far during this hyper-active lull.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
441. WxLogic
7:00 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
TUTT tightening up across the Yucatan Peninsula / S GOM and ULAC starting to get established across the W/NW Carib:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
440. DavidHOUTX
7:00 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 425. redwagon:


I think so, too. There was such dogged agreement on something landfalling in TX on the 21 that I think we have our man now. Or woman. If our blob is eventually Erin she could theoretically pull the same prairiecane the other Erin did a few years ago...


Erin from 2007 would be the ideal situation for sure!

Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
439. washingtonian115
6:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 431. AtHomeInTX:
Euro holds onto east Atlantic system until 120hrs. But we'll see. At least they are showing it. lol

If instability doesn't pull up in the Atlantic soon could be a problem for our cape verde season.Well that's all the models that develop the African wave now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
438. CybrTeddy
6:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
A few observations about 93L, which I'm actually more interested in than 92L.

93L appears to be quite a large system, this will help it battle off the stable environment noted by the GFS. However, because of that large size it won't be able to consolidate too quickly. You'll recall Dorian was a rather small system, at least compared to 93L, and took much quicker to develop. That being said, because Dorian organized so quickly it separated itself from the ITCZ before it was ready to do so and caused it to die from the stable air it ran right into. If 93L stays weak and disorganized for the next few days, which I believe it will based off the global models, then it may have a better opportunity to become a more significant system later on.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23566
437. GTstormChaserCaleb
6:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
This afternoons model runs and especially tonight's ones will be very interesting.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
436. CaneHunter031472
6:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
So we might be getting a Soaker Tropical Storm by Saturday? Dang we are already drowning in rain here in the Gulf Coast. Where do you people see this going? and how strong y'all think this might be?
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435. Levi32
6:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 427. MiamiHurricanes09:
LOLLL, shameless plug I see. ;)


You just can't pass up those opportunities :P
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
434. wunderweatherman123
6:58 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 431. AtHomeInTX:
Euro holds onto east Atlantic system until 120hrs. But we'll see. At least they are showing it. lol

fish storm on the euro run?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
433. Gearsts
6:58 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
Quoting 416. Levi32:


You can also find current invests within minutes of designation here. Sometimes the Navy site is slow :)
Levi what do you think the african wave will do?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1425

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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