Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 476. EyEtoEyE:
. Hello GT, When you say a little stronger , do you mean a hurricane ? And do you think West coast of Florida , to the panhandle?
Hi EyE can't rule out the possibility of that, especially this time of the year where the shallow shelf waters are warm, it all comes down to the conditions in the atmosphere i.e. wind shear and dry air. As far as track goes anywhere from Central Louisiana to the Big Bend of FL. needs to watch carefully. If nothing develops this may continue heading west into the low level zonal steering in the Caribbean which would move it over Central America and then the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8428
Quoting 522. Patrap:


It sure looks better than Dorian at some points in its life.
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I have Keyboards older than some.


Sheesh'

; )
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Quoting 510. 954FtLCane:

lol....I think Romo will do quite well this year. Thanks for the avatar note.
Thank god for the investS, you can hear the website taking a collective sigh of relief because of them!
He will. He just needs to put some playoff wins under his belt. And yes, thankfully there are a couple of areas to track or else this place would be nothing but a big dumpster fire.
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I think stop putting invests on this map!!
only putting tropical d and tropical storm and hurricanes on here.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52270
Quoting 495. opal92nwf:
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">


I remember thinking the same thing some years after Florida's 1964 double-whammy of Cleo and Isbell. It wouldn't be until 40 years later that Palm Beach County felt any major effects from a hurricane. They go where they will, and by no one elses.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
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Any florida gulf coast surfers on here? Any generally known (not asking for secret spots) areas good for a southwestern to west swell? Wishful thinking, but its flat on the east coast...
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1800
Quoting 519. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're old he made me feel young was in the 11th grade.


You're not helping GT! LOL

I went on vacation, since the tropics seemed to be on vacation. Was down by you for a bit. Thanks for the welcome back.
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Quoting 515. CaneHunter031472:


At least a good app on your phones.


LOL Talking about alerts. My phone's app just sent me an alert.
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I see invest 92L moving west for a day then moving wnw for a few days and start to move back to the weast as a big high to the north and maybe move wsw and move west again!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52270
Quoting 496. daddyjames:


Wow, you really know how to make some of us feel old - still driving the car with the dented roof from Wilma ;)
You're old he made me feel young was in the 11th grade and by the way I didn't welcome you back to the blog, nice to have you back.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8428
Quoting 498. mitchelace5:


I was age 10 at that time.
Quoting 508. opal92nwf:

I wasn't 13 yet


{sigh} I'm not gonna say how young I was at that time. please stop, it hurts ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Joe Bastardi
ECMWF MJO says lets get ready to rumble later next week and beyond in tropics. Phase 2,3 hyper phases
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Quoting 479. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm pretty sure that is Grothar's Blobzilla. :D...By the way nice to have you back on Washi, it seems as though you brought some luck with you as well as things were getting a bit boring in here without your presence.


Boy is Gro going to be surprised when he gets back.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Quoting 514. Patrap:
A NOAA Weather Alert Radio SHOULD be in everyone's home.




At least a good app on your phones.
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A NOAA Weather Alert Radio SHOULD be in everyone's home.


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Quoting 512. Civicane49:


Not yet but soon.

OK!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting 509. 62901IL:
Are the floaters for invest 92 and 93L up yet?


Not yet but soon.
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What about this wave in front of 93L it looks really good right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting 481. Matt74:
You better fear Tony Romo this year. Nice avatar btw.

lol....I think Romo will do quite well this year. Thanks for the avatar note.
Thank god for the investS, you can hear the website taking a collective sigh of relief because of them!
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Are the floaters for invest 92 and 93L up yet?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting 498. mitchelace5:


I was age 10 at that time.

I wasn't 13 yet
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Quoting 485. catastropheadjuster:


Thank you LAbonbon, and everyone. I promise it is really really bad. Thunder is shaking our building.

sheri


I can definitely see the line of storms dropping down on you. It's part of the same line just going over me now, but yours looks worse.

As a couple of backup sites, there's NWS (which you're likely well aware of), which I like to use, because it includes all the HWO's and SWS's in addition to watches and warnings on their maps. Link

Also, I love the site out of my city (Baton Rouge) Link This site covers the whole coast, you can zoom in to neighborhood level, and if you click the 'Layers' button on the right you can overlay any warnings, expected severe weather, etc. I keep it up all the time whenever tornados are a possibility.

Good luck and stay safe.
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Quoting 497. CybrTeddy:


Impressive, the UKMET really likes 92L.
I've learned Ted that storms seem to develop jealousy of each other.lol.Since people are more interested in 93L 92L may sneak up on us.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
Quoting 495. opal92nwf:
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">


There are bloggers here that were born around the time of Wilma.. or so it feels sometimes.
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What!!? Listen, I came here for an argument!

Oh...sorry, this is ABUSE, you want Room 12A, next door...

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 497. CybrTeddy:


Impressive, the UKMET really likes 92L.


Wow. It looks like things are stting up for at least some sort of tropical system developing in the GOMEX. Wonder what the conditions there will be by then.
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501. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 499. TimSoCal:


That Southern Hemisphere invest can't be right, can it? It's the dead of winter down there.


It is & has persisted for days so far..
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Quoting 492. 62901IL:

Green balls, everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Watch out!!!!!!!!!!!!


That Southern Hemisphere invest can't be right, can it? It's the dead of winter down there.
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Quoting 495. opal92nwf:
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">


I was age 10 at that time.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 460. Drakoen:
UKMET

93L


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 27.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 15.08.2013 13.5N 27.0W WEAK

00UTC 16.08.2013 15.7N 28.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2013 16.5N 31.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2013 17.7N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2013 17.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2013 18.5N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2013 18.0N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2013 17.7N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2013 17.5N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


92L


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+84 : 20.0N 94.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2013 20.0N 94.0W WEAK

12UTC 17.08.2013 20.2N 94.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2013 20.5N 95.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2013 21.3N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2013 22.1N 96.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.08.2013 22.6N 96.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


Impressive, the UKMET really likes 92L.
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Quoting 495. opal92nwf:
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">


Wow, you really know how to make some of us feel old - still driving the car with the dented roof from Wilma ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">
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Quoting 489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball93L.INVEST


green ball92L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball92E.INVEST



Central Pacific


green ball90C.INVEST



West Pacific


green ball11W.UTOR



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere


green ball90S.INVEST

Wow!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting 479. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm pretty sure that is Grothar's Blobzilla. :D...By the way nice to have you back on Washi, it seems as though you brought some luck with you as well as things were getting a bit boring in here without your presence.
Lol.The atlantic is trying to divert my attention.It didn't like that I said I won't be returning if something didn't turn up in the tropics.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
Quoting 489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball93L.INVEST


green ball92L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball92E.INVEST



Central Pacific


green ball90C.INVEST



West Pacific


green ball11W.UTOR



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere


green ball90S.INVEST

Green balls, everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Watch out!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
The 12z ECMWF develops 93L to some extent

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Just like that we have two invest to watch. Seems upward motion of the MJO should be near our region just in time for the peak. Next month will yield the a high concentration of storm in a short time.

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2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball93L.INVEST


green ball92L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball92E.INVEST



Central Pacific


green ball90C.INVEST



West Pacific


green ball11W.UTOR



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere


green ball90S.INVEST
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Quoting 485. catastropheadjuster:


Thank you LAbonbon, and everyone. I promise it is really really bad. Thunder is shaking our building.

sheri

Send us a video?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting 475. Skyepony:

It's safe.. NAVY & a few NOAA sites have no security cert. Just tell your computer it's okay..


Thank you!
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6-hour visible loop of 93L. This is not an updating loop, just a one-time post. If the system becomes more interesting then I'll make it live.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting 473. LAbonbon:


No warnings issued for your area. Special Weather Statement, though:

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.


Thank you LAbonbon, and everyone. I promise it is really really bad. Thunder is shaking our building.

sheri
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484. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon for today got cancelled. Maybe day after tomorrow in the afternoon.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 22.5N 89.0W AT 15/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
13/2100Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 13/1130Z.
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Quoting 458. StormTrackerScott:



No 100 degree temps on that map. Lots of 90s though, except on the coast... where those upper 80s sure feel nice!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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