Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 553. ncstorm:
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?



Link

you will get a warning it is safe to proceed navy site all invests there
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Quoting 553. ncstorm:
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?



Link
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Anyone using the SSS for Impact determination is not only wrong, but well..u know.

: )
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Quoting 565. raggpr:


Where can I find this image? Is it from a free website?


It's free and from here.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 556. TheDawnAwakening:


This isn't a fish storm.


In 5 days, I will ask you the question "Is this a fish storm now?" ... I can't wait to read your answer.
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edit
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Air pressures starting to drop at this isolated buoy in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles due SSE of Jamaica........They were rising at this location this am but those t-storms in that area have been very persistent over the last 4-5 hours:

Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (91)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 82.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F
View Details - View History

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92E
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Quoting 486. Levi32:
6-hour visible loop of 93L. This is not an updating loop, just a one-time post. If the system becomes more interesting then I'll make it live.



There's a bit of a spin out ahead of 93L in that first blob too.
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Tomorrow at 1pm EDT (5pm GMT/12pm CDT) will be 44 years ago...

On Thursday, Aug. 14, a Navy reconnaissance plane reconnoitering a tropical wave in the Caribbean encountered a fast-developing depression which reached storm intensity while the aircraft was still in the area. Advisory Number One on the new storm, to be known as Camille, was issued at 1 pm EDT that day by the Weather Bureau's National Hurricane Center in Miami. At that time, Camille was located near latitude 19.3 north and longitude 2.3 west or about 60 miles west of Grand Cayman or 408 miles south of Miami. Camille was moving west-northwestward at about 13 miles per hour with strongest winds about 60 miles per hour over a very small area near the center...
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The people who are always downcast about storms going OTS are the ones who are least interested in tropical cyclones and more interested in being struck by one. I love tracking long lived Cape Verde hurricanes, and when they go OTS that's fine by me. I'm here to track hurricanes, not to track death and destruction.
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Quoting 548. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been 92 years since the last major hurricane directly hit Tampa Bay. Since then we have had some pretty close brushes including Frances and Jeanne that came through the backdoor.

Elena in 1985 was close
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Quoting 564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
slow long tracker


Those are the best ones to track. However, can also be very dangerous.
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well its pretty cut and clear where both Invests are going..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16311
Quoting 564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
slow long tracker

what is that wave ahead of 93l!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 528. hurricanes2018:
I think stop putting invests on this map!!
only putting tropical d and tropical storm and hurricanes on here.


We do indeed have 92L and 93L now... however, we don't have the model graphics at this point. WU usually puts them up once there are model tracks, floaters, etc. We will likely see the invests posted on these maps later this afternoon or this evening.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
THINGS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL SURGE TO GREATER THAN 2.00 INCHES BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES WILL PEAK TO 2.20 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE MORNING AND 2.40 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING AND 700 MB HEIGHT/TEMPS LOWER AND COOL. FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY

Houston-Galveston discussion. 2.4" is high. Yippee!
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92 is greatest threat
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Quoting 491. Stormchaser2007:
The 12z ECMWF develops 93L to some extent



Where can I find this image? Is it from a free website?
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Quoting 556. TheDawnAwakening:


This isn't a fish storm.
slow long tracker
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Quoting 552. CaribBoy:
Why people are interested in a future fish (93L)


Because there is no guarantee that it will be a "future fish".
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Floaters still not up yet...come on...
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Quoting 282. ncstorm:


Really?..calling yoboi???..

you and your counterparts dont have this same thinking when a "denier" raises doubts to your GW thinking..

Nea, you have been nothing but contradictory today..lows are usual but heatwaves are "unprecedented"..my my my..


Lets be clear, no area of science has been studied and peer tested and reviewed in recent years like man driven global warming/climate change. Rarely in science has a consensus been reached like it has in these studies. 97% of climate scientists agree, the science community as a whole completely agrees, it's scientific fact that it's happening. This area of science has been studied like no other in recent years. And as far as heatwaves that are unprecedented; Jeff quotes in his blog, "Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China, central and southern Japan, and South Korea. That's the definition of unprecedented. The below average temps here in the US are a result of a stuck jet stream that will continue to bring extreme flooding, rainfall amounts to the SE, Missouri and Arkansas. So while we are below average in the Midwest and SE, Europe, Alaska, and the Far East is way above average. Point is, World as a whole is way above average compared to historical norms. Scary when some think they have more knowledge than 97% of climate scientists when they've put in virtually no study on the subject compared to what the scientific community has. It is arrogance in which can't be backed up by facts and the rigorous study and research put in by the scientific community in the past decade plus.
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Gustav and Isaac were not majors when they hit LA.

but that's ok
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Quoting 537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
16.11N/76.77W


Is it just me or can you start to see a spin in the low-level cloud deck
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Quoting 552. CaribBoy:
Why people are interested in a future fish (93L)


This isn't a fish storm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
I see a spin to it now.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 141 Comments: 123478
This wave in front of 93L may be come 94L




Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115741
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16311
Why people are interested in a future fish (93L)
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Quoting 536. Camille33:

will it hit florida!!!!!!!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!
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550. Skyepony (Mod)
GEOS-5 goes a little more west with 92L in the GOM then turns it north. Keeps 93L a weak wave heading west.
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...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING PEARL RIVER COUNTY...ASCENSION PARISH...WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...LIVINGSTON PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...HANCOCK COUNTY...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...JACKSON COUNTY...HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF ESCATAWPA TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVINGTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF PLAQUEMINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SAUCIER...HAMMOND... PLAQUEMINE...WADE...ROBERT...SPRINGFIELD...PRAIRIE VILLE... PONCHATOULA...WHITEHALL...WHITE CASTLE...SORRENTO...MADISONVILLE... KILLIAN...GONZALES...GEISMER...COVINGTON...CARVILL E...BAYOU SORREL... ABITA SPRINGS...VANCLEAVE...PICAYUNE...LYMAN AND ESCATAWPA

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

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Quoting 535. Patrap:
NOLA had 40 years without a Major between Betsy in 1965 and Katrina in 2005.

Since K, we have had Gustav and Issac.


So the odds are never the same, we all have a equal shot at a Major Cane, every year.
It has been 92 years since the last major hurricane directly hit Tampa Bay. Since then we have had some pretty close brushes including Frances and Jeanne that came through the backdoor.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9091
Here we go!
Next couple weeks could be a bit bumpy!
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Quoting 541. surfintexas:


They had that same radio on clearance at Wally world for $1. I bought every single one and gave them to family and friends.

I am pretty much a lurker, but wanted to say thank you to everybody that comments on this blog with informative information. The insight is much appreciated. May everybody be safe and prepared as this season starts to ramp up.


When one stops and helps another, or many, he or she is favored by God and the Universe.

Thnak's for bringing that here.

And thank you
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Anticyclone building in over 92L.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
544. flsky
Quoting 525. FEMAroadwarrior:
Any florida gulf coast surfers on here? Any generally known (not asking for secret spots) areas good for a southwestern to west swell? Wishful thinking, but its flat on the east coast...


Lot of frustrated surfers here in ECFL. The only time there are waves of any consequence is when there is a storm in the Atlantic.
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Quoting 526. Patrap:


Wanted to thank you for helping me rebuild my bookmarks; had to kill Chrome the other day.

Anybody have any idea how fast 92L is moving?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3283
Quoting 480. Drakoen:
850mb vorticity has increased with 93L and the maps are showing that it is establishing an upper level outflow.



Yeah, the CIMSS shear maps show an upper level anticyclone centered over the 850mb vorticity center. This is for 93L invest. I think this system could become our first hurricane of the season. Shear will die down along its path as it establishes convection and outflow pattern.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 514. Patrap:
A NOAA Weather Alert Radio SHOULD be in everyone's home.




They had that same radio on clearance at Wally world for $1. I bought every single one and gave them to family and friends.

I am pretty much a lurker, but wanted to say thank you to everybody that comments on this blog with informative information. The insight is much appreciated. May everybody be safe and prepared as this season starts to ramp up.
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Quoting 485. catastropheadjuster:


Thank you LAbonbon, and everyone. I promise it is really really bad. Thunder is shaking our building.

sheri


Update:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
213 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ALZ060>064-FLZ001>006-132045-
COVINGTON AL-INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-
INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-UPPER BALDWIN AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-UPPER MOBILE AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-
213 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN COVINGTON...
CENTRAL BALDWIN AND SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
OKALOOSA...SANTA ROSA AND CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES EAST OF FLORALA TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
DIAMONDHEAD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REGIONAL AIRPORT IN WEST MOBILE... MIDTOWN MOBILE...
DOWNTOWN MOBILE... WHITFIELD... PINE LEVEL...
WHITING FIELD... ROEVILLE... POINT BAKER...
PEA RIDGE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 IN FLORIDA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 67.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 IN ALABAMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 66.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW
AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION.








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We have a lot out there now we got 92L that upper level low S of.bermuda Heading for FL. That wave in front of 93L wish really looks like a TD right now and 93L I wonder out of all of them I this said wish one would have the best ch of fourming
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115741
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
16.11N/76.77W
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Quoting 520. hurricanes2018:
I see invest 92L moving west for a day then moving wnw for a few days and start to move back to the weast as a big high to the north and maybe move wsw and move west again!

will it hit florida!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
NOLA had 40 years without a Major between Betsy in 1965 and Katrina in 2005.

Since K, we have had Gustav and Issac.


So the odds are never the same, we all have a equal shot at a Major Cane, every year.
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In my opinion 93L won't bring rain to the N Lesser Antilles, and I fell very sad because of that.
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Quoting 476. EyEtoEyE:
. Hello GT, When you say a little stronger , do you mean a hurricane ? And do you think West coast of Florida , to the panhandle?
Hi EyE can't rule out the possibility of that, especially this time of the year where the shallow shelf waters are warm, it all comes down to the conditions in the atmosphere i.e. wind shear and dry air. As far as track goes anywhere from Central Louisiana to the Big Bend of FL. needs to watch carefully. If nothing develops this may continue heading west into the low level zonal steering in the Caribbean which would move it over Central America and then the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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