Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 628. 62901IL:

What was it like?


Like in a tornado lol BUT A VERY LONG TORNADO
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Quoting 625. 62901IL:

And it is also important to note that the floaters are not up yet and it has been almost 2 hours, maybe more.

Invest 92L's floater will be up shortly. Invest 93L will not get a floater from SSD for a while; not until 30-35W. It's too far out.
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Quoting 623. Drakoen:
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.


Lol, obviously.. :/
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Quoting 623. Drakoen:
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.


Does not look like cyclone models this cycle for the Atlantic storms, no entries in the TCVITALS file.
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Quoting 625. 62901IL:

And it is also important to note that the floaters are not up yet and it has been almost 2 hours, maybe more.
The wave in the atlantic is too far for a floater.
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Quoting 626. CaribBoy:
As for major hurricanes, of course, I don't wish one to pay a visit to anyone. I've experienced a few ones in the N Leewards, and it's no fun at all.

What was it like?
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A lot of rain, but I only care about the temperatures. May not get out of the 70s...in coastal North Carolina...in August!

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As for major hurricanes, of course, I don't wish one to pay a visit to anyone. I've experienced a few ones in the N Leewards, and it's no fun at all.
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Quoting 623. Drakoen:
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.

And it is also important to note that the floaters are not up yet and it has been almost 2 hours, maybe more.
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this tropical low look better by the hour!
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No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Cybrteddy has to know that every storms are not major hurricanes! I highly doubt a strong Cat 1 with 90MPH winds will do much damage to my area, but instead of that will bring lots of fun!!!
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Quoting 612. islandgirls:

I sincerely hope that nobody here wants to see death and destruction, but let's face it,sometimes there is death and destruction. Of great significance though, is the fact that Nature is awesome and this is what draws us to this blog. Isn't that so?


What's less significant about a category 5 hurricane that recurves out into the open Atlantic vs. one that strikes the United States?
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Quoting 148. allancalderini:
Like I mention activity is about to start,someone bring the popcorn please.
I went to the movie last weekend and got in with my senior discount for $6.00... Kinda hungry and thirsty so I got a small buttered popcorn and a small Diet Coke....It cost me $247.53 ...What the .??
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Quoting 597. weathermanwannabe:


Yup; pressures are falling (but not rapidly yet) at the moment at all three bouys in the Caribbean and off of the Yucatan.........Something is bound to give over the next 48 hours.

That's just the diurnal pressure change. It will be news when the pressure drops when the atmospheric tide would ordinarily make it rise. Here's a plot.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42 056&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT
Well, it would be a plot if WU did not eat long links.
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Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!
You can thank dry air for that.
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Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!


yeah, go thru the archive again on this site.
he made landfall as a cat 2

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072008_Gustav.p df

and then there's this too, but good job though.
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Quoting 605. CybrTeddy:


Sorry but half the blog gets totally bummed out every single year when a storm goes out to sea, and it really does take the fun out of tracking these storms when half the blog is disinterested.


also when a bunch of people automatically say the system is out to sea when it first comes off the coast. To me that takes the fun out of it too
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LETS HOPE WE DO NOT GET ANY BIG HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.I DO NOT LIKE WHAT I AM sEEING HERE!
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Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

Wow! I forgot about that!
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Quoting 573. CybrTeddy:
The people who are always downcast about storms going OTS are the ones who are least interested in tropical cyclones and more interested in being struck by one. I love tracking long lived Cape Verde hurricanes, and when they go OTS that's fine by me. I'm here to track hurricanes, not to track death and destruction.

I sincerely hope that nobody here wants to see death and destruction, but let's face it,sometimes there is death and destruction. Of great significance though, is the fact that Nature is awesome and this is what draws us to this blog. Isn't that so?
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More showers is heading our way.



MetServiceJA ‏@MetserviceJA 3h
Thunderstorm cloud top at 50,531' moving toward St.Catherine/Clarendon @ 17KT. Expect more activity within the hour.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7480
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

I remember when Gustav's remnants hit my area and we just got a lot of rain. But you should have been there when the remnants of Ike hit our area.
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I'm in BR, too. Been a member since fall of 2004. Read a lot. Learn a little.



Quoting LAbonbon:


I can definitely see the line of storms dropping down on you. It's part of the same line just going over me now, but yours looks worse.

As a couple of backup sites, there's NWS (which you're likely well aware of), which I like to use, because it includes all the HWO's and SWS's in addition to watches and warnings on their maps. Link

Also, I love the site out of my city (Baton Rouge) Link This site covers the whole coast, you can zoom in to neighborhood level, and if you click the 'Layers' button on the right you can overlay any warnings, expected severe weather, etc. I keep it up all the time whenever tornados are a possibility.

Good luck and stay safe.
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Quoting 589. 69Viking:
Well bummer, unless these storms fizzle before reaching the coastline it doesn't look like I'll make it to day 3 without rain.


You didn't get the rain that came through this morning?
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Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

utor remind me of gustav a little!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1256


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
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Quoting 586. ncstorm:


thats not true..everyone has their preference in tracking TCs..To make an assumption about a group of people is pretty unfair..


Sorry but half the blog gets totally bummed out every single year when a storm goes out to sea, and it really does take the fun out of tracking these storms when half the blog is disinterested.
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Does anyone think that the ULL near 60w 30n has a shot of forming, it is near 30C water? Looks like there potentially could be a trifecta with the storm in the Caribbean, the one coming off Africa and the one I just mentioned.
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Quoting 595. TheDawnAwakening:


I don't get your point, because by then you will be looking at a potential hurricane tracking westward.


Lol a hurricane moving westward is pure fantasy :)
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Quoting 559. BaltOCane:
Gustav and Isaac were not majors when they hit LA.

but that's ok

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!
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Quoting 594. Drakoen:


That's a joke right?
I think so
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Quoting 569. Camille33:

what is that wave ahead of 93l!!
activity being enhanced by proximity near ITCZ
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Quoting 594. Drakoen:


That's a joke right?


of course..LOL..I guess I should have added an emoticon..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
Quoting 585. louisianaboy444:


The one just to the East of Nicaragua also saw falling pressures as of 1850Z


Yup; pressures are falling (but not rapidly yet) at the moment at all three bouys in the Caribbean and off of the Yucatan.........Something is bound to give over the next 48 hours.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8308
Quoting 593. nigel20:
A flash flood watch is now in effect for sections Jamaica:

NEWS RELEASE

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 %u2013 12:00 noon

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, with immediate effect.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near Costa Rica, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across mainly southern parishes since early this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to affect these parishes and spread to other parishes today and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west. Flash flooding is, therefore, possible as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) today.


Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.


ram

OK Nigel! Are you ready for it????????????????????????????????????????????????
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Quoting 579. CaribBoy:


In 5 days, I will ask you the question "Is this a fish storm now?" ... I can't wait to read your answer.


I don't get your point, because by then you will be looking at a potential hurricane tracking westward.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
Quoting 570. ncstorm:
well its pretty cut and clear where both Invests are going..



That's a joke right?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
A flash flood watch is now in effect for sections Jamaica:

NEWS RELEASE

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – 12:00 noon

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, with immediate effect.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near Costa Rica, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across mainly southern parishes since early this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to affect these parishes and spread to other parishes today and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west. Flash flooding is, therefore, possible as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) today.


Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.


ram
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7480
We might, and I stress, might, get a new entry here from Dr. Masters on the developing situ.
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Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Link

you will get a warning it is safe to proceed navy site all invests there



thanks Keep!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
NCAR Model Page

ATCF Invest Page

Make sure to bookmark these. :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6699
Well bummer, unless these storms fizzle before reaching the coastline it doesn't look like I'll make it to day 3 without rain.

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Orleans Parish

Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 1:05 PM CDT on August 13, 2013

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Timberlane... Metairie... Marrero...
Kenner... Harvey... Avondale...
Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of New Orleans...
St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Chalmette...

* until 300 PM CDT

* at 1258 PM CDT... National Weather Service radar indicated a
cluster of thunderstorms over upper Jefferson and Orleans
parishes. Radar estimated around 1.5 inches had fallen between
Lakefront and Chalmette and another maximum near 1 inch over
Harahan.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Additional rainfall amounts up to two inches are possible in the
advisory area.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause localized flooding
and ponding of water in urban areas... highways... streets and
underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 2985 9022 2992 9027 3005 9028 3003 9011
3004 9005 3006 9003 3005 9000 3006 8995
2986 8989 2986 8992 2989 8993 2990 8998
2989 9001 2986 9003

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Quoting 567. bappit:
THINGS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL SURGE TO GREATER THAN 2.00 INCHES BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES WILL PEAK TO 2.20 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE MORNING AND 2.40 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING AND 700 MB HEIGHT/TEMPS LOWER AND COOL. FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY

Houston-Galveston discussion. 2.4" is high. Yippee!


Well this just made my day!
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Quoting 573. CybrTeddy:
The people who are always downcast about storms going OTS are the ones who are least interested in tropical cyclones and more interested in being struck by one. I love tracking long lived Cape Verde hurricanes, and when they go OTS that's fine by me. I'm here to track hurricanes, not to track death and destruction.


thats not true..everyone has their preference in tracking TCs..To make an assumption about a group of people is pretty unfair..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
Quoting 577. weathermanwannabe:
Air pressures starting to drop at this isolated buoy in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles due SSE of Jamaica........They were rising at this location this am but those t-storms in that area have been very persistent over the last 4-5 hours:

Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (91)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 82.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F
View Details - View History



The one just to the East of Nicaragua also saw falling pressures as of 1850Z with East winds reported which does not tell us much
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Quoting 569. Camille33:

what is that wave ahead of 93l!!


Just a wave that emerged a day before 93L emerged. I will get ripped apart by the high wind shear caused by the upper level anticyclonic flow over 93L. There is an area of low level vorticity associated with a wave embedded within a dry layer near 35-40w.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
Quoting 553. ncstorm:
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?



Link

you will get a warning it is safe to proceed navy site all invests there
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.