Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 729. Levi32:


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.



I agree 100% I dont see much development till the BOC.


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Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"


That's funny coming from someone with Opal in their screen name!
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Quoting 714. Patrap:
Actually, Fairbanks is 63F.

;P


I was gonna say....
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting 724. Patrap:
Discombobulated.
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Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting 704. Levi32:
Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.



notice the feature near the Islands aswell.
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Quoting 716. opal92nwf:

It wasn't that you were mentioning SAL being a problem, it was that you were making it sound like it was beyond the shadow of a doubt that the wave was going to fizzle because of it.
??.I never said this wave wouldn't develop.Look at my comment that I made to Ted saying that it's best chances are in the short term for development but in long term dry air could be a problem...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting 722. GTstormChaserCaleb:
All good with me Washi. You have proof to back it up too. You already know which model I am going with on this one. *Hint I post it like every second on here. :P


Well if the SAL and Water Vapor stayed the way it shows on that picture, then it would not be a problem one bit.
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Quoting 721. nrtiwlnvragn:
Experimental Basin Scale HWRF from last night (sure is not timely), One West, another Northwest





not good very strong ridge.
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Quoting 715. 69Viking:
Decent convection for a wave approaching DMIN.

Divergent flow aloft will keep the thunderstorm activity pulsating.

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Quoting 710. washingtonian115:
Good god of mighty you name one negative thing that this wave has to go through and people start going mad.lol.Dry air is a reality for this wave like it was Dorian and Chantal.Which is why the models don't see this becoming more than a weak tropical cyclone not saying it will not become anything more if it can over come the dry air.Sorry I even commented on it..>>
All good with me Washi. You have proof to back it up too. You already know which model I am going with on this one. *Hint I post it like every second on here. :P

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Experimental Basin Scale HWRF from last night (sure is not timely), One West, another Northwest


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Quoting 704. Levi32:
Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.


"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"
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NWS Slidell,La.

Now we have been keeping an eye on this wave in the central Caribbean
and latest GFS continues to hold onto a surface reflection...albeit
weak...drifting to the north and then re-curving to the north and NE
while in the eastern Gulf. With a stalled boundary and being just
downstream of the trough axis it merges with a weak wave along the
stalled front and tries to spin up a surface low...this is not
completely tropical in nature but it is something. Good news is it
looks like if that happens it will be east of our area. As for the
European model (ecmwf) it continues to not like the system and shows an open wave
moving into the Yucatan. Given how weak the system is and how far
south it currently is the European model (ecmwf) makes more sense. Now with that all
said good thing for US is both of the models still showed mostly the
same sensible weather for our area and thus have stuck to the mex
gui. One small issue is the GFS is drier and slightly cooler for our
area and this could be an indirect impact of it trying to spin up a
low in the Gulf. We will continue to watch and see. /Cab/
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718. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 4:00 AM HKT, Severe Typhoon Utor was centered about 300 kilometers south-southwest of Hong Kong is forecast to move northwest at about 16 km/h towards the western coast of Guangdong.

As Utor moved closer to Hong Kong, winds over the territory continued to strengthen. Gales prevailed over offshore waters while winds occasionally reached storm force on high ground. According to the present forecast track, Utor will skirt over 250 kilometers to the southwest of Hong Kong this morning. Local winds are expected to strengthen further in the morning. The Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 will remain in force for most of the morning.
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Quoting 713. redwagon:


The 'piece breaking off' part explains what the FIM at least has been doing.


Yeah, it must be.
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Quoting 710. washingtonian115:
Good god of mighty you name one negative thing that this wave has to go through and people start going mad.lol.Dry air is a reality for this wave like it was Dorian and Chantal.Which is why the models don't see this becoming more than a weak tropical cyclone not saying it will not become anything more if it can over come the dry air.Sorry I even commented on it..>>

It wasn't that you were mentioning SAL being a problem, it was that you were making it sound like it was beyond the shadow of a doubt that the wave was going to fizzle because of it.
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Decent convection for a wave approaching DMIN.

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Actually, Fairbanks is 63F.

;P
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Quoting 676. AtHomeInTX:
Sorry if this was posted already. I may never catch up. :)

CAMPECHE...PUSHING INLAND OVER MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


The 'piece breaking off' part explains what the FIM at least has been doing.
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Quoting 701. Levi32:
The 12z ECMWF ensembles are split between north and west trajectories for 92L.


We don't want another Debbie situation :/
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711. Skyepony (Mod)
93L
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Good god of mighty you name one negative thing that this wave has to go through and people start going mad.lol.Dry air is a reality for this wave like it was Dorian and Chantal.Which is why the models don't see this becoming more than a weak tropical cyclone not saying it will not become anything more if it can over come the dry air.Sorry I even commented on it..>>
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting 698. Tropicsweatherpr:


So the wave in fron 93L has not cleaned the dry air?

I should clarify. The wave/cyclone shouldn't weaken by just solely entering the central Atlantic. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that it will gain latitude while doing so, giving it more interaction with dry air and SAL.
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Quoting 700. CaribBoy:


I prefer that.
Course you do, lol. Dorian might be a good analog for 93L. When one follows a specific track the next one usually follows a similar track. Also models have tended to underestimate the A-B High this year.
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705. ringeaux

U betcha'
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I'll take it!


Quoting Patrap:
It's Hotter in Fairbanks,AK. currently than NOLA.

LOL
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Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting 697. MiamiHurricanes09:
I'd give 93L a 50% of developing in general, although its chances for survival beyond the 3-4 day range are rather poor. It will either be a short-lived tropical cyclone, or a Dorian repeat, if it does gain latitude the way that the GFS and ECMWF are depicting.



WHY on Earth weak systems like 93L CANNOT move west into better environment!!
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It's Hotter in Fairbanks,AK. currently than NOLA.

LOL
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The 12z ECMWF ensembles are split between north and west trajectories for 92L.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting 696. GTstormChaserCaleb:
FIM-8



Waits for development near the islands and not a recurve into the Central Atlantic.



I prefer that.
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699. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting 684. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the wave in the eastern Atlantic has a great chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. As others have already pointed out, Invest 93L has a nice anticyclone atop of it, providing both low wind shear and the opportunity for outflow channels to develop. It is emerging south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to allow for tropical development. After a few large outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer the past two weeks, things have calmed down across the Atlantic; regardless, a majority of the SAL lies well north of the wave. Finally, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave...Dr. Masters mentioned we would see a few of these back in his post a couple of days ago...is moving eastward across the Main Development Region. This will help increase divergence and convective activity associated with the wave.

Unfortunately, the system will encounter a more stable environment in the central Atlantic over the weekend. I doubt it becomes anything of huge significance intensity wise. Reminds me of Dorian...maybe stronger.

I doubt the East Atlantic will remain as quiet as the GFS is making it out to be.



So the wave in front 93L has not cleaned the dry air?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14252
I'd give 93L a 50% of developing in general, although its chances for survival beyond the 3-4 day range are rather poor. It will either be a short-lived tropical cyclone, or a Dorian repeat, if it does gain latitude the way that the GFS and ECMWF are depicting.

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FIM-8



Waits for development near the islands and not a recurve into the Central Atlantic.

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Quoting 684. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the wave in the eastern Atlantic has a great chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. As others have already pointed out, Invest 93L has a nice anticyclone atop of it, providing both low wind shear and the opportunity for outflow channels to develop. It is emerging south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to allow for tropical development. After a few large outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer the past two weeks, things have calmed down across the Atlantic; regardless, a majority of the SAL lies well north of the wave. Finally, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave...Dr. Masters mentioned we would see a few of these back in his post a couple of days ago...is moving eastward across the Main Development Region. This will help increase divergence and convective activity associated with the wave.

I doubt the East Atlantic will remain as quiet as the GFS is making it out to be.




That wave in front of 93L all so needs too be watch that wave could be come 94L
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Quoting 686. opal92nwf:

"Sigh", I sort of vowed that I wouldn't comment (more about the tropics) until Erin formed, but I can't help it now.

Why are we suddenly bemoaning that this wave is going to fizzled by just an isolated report(s) that there might be SAL impacting it. We can't be so certain about this right now. Please
as my beautiful grand-daughter always says......."Just Because"
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PHI and other Helo Transportation for the GOM have upgraded their Alert status and advised all Client interest.


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It seems to me, looking at World water temperatures that the water off Africa is no hot enough for a big hurricane season. The West Pacific is where it is all happening this year.
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In the discussions around SAL this week - I can't help but wonder if SAL keeping E. ATL. disturbances weak is part of the reason why forecasts for the season were so concerned with US landfalls. If the disturbances are kept weak until they're most or all of the way across the tropical Atlantic, then they seem more likely to be trouble for us in the long run.
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Quoting 682. mitchelace5:


I read this on an article forecasting the rest of the season's conditions:

"As we get later into the hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical development.
The massive plume of Saharan dust pushing off the coast of Africa will begin to dissipate, allowing for the moist environment necessary for systems to strengthen. This is also the time of year that shredding winds will back off, letting tropical systems have the time to develop."
Accuweather?.and I was suppose to get 10 inches here in D.C according to them from that snow storm.Dry air will be a problem for this system unless it can create a moisture bubble to protect it's self.
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Quoting 651. Stormchaser2007:
NASA GEOS-5 has 93L getting obliterated by SAL later this week.

You can see the dust getting wrapped into the circulation at the end of the run...



:(
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Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
93 will be out of range till about 30 west lots of time with this sit back see what it does



Keep what about the image the Navy site has? Is that not a floater?

Link
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Quoting 663. washingtonian115:
Another one..sigh..bites the dust.Seriously this needs to let up if you want any healthy cape verde storms this year.If not expect a lot of struggling storms in the east Atlantic.

"Sigh", I sort of vowed that I wouldn't comment (more about the tropics) until Erin formed, but I can't help it now.

Why are we suddenly bemoaning that this wave is going to fizzled by just an isolated report(s) that there might be SAL impacting it. We can't be so certain about this right now. Please
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Quoting 556. TheDawnAwakening:


This isn't a fish storm.
. I agree with TDA no fish , long tracker west , and probably a cane!
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I think the wave in the eastern Atlantic has a great chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. As others have already pointed out, Invest 93L has a nice anticyclone atop of it, providing both low wind shear and the opportunity for outflow channels to develop. It is emerging south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to allow for tropical development. After a few large outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer the past two weeks, things have calmed down across the Atlantic; regardless, a majority of the SAL lies well north of the wave. Finally, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave...Dr. Masters mentioned we would see a few of these back in his post a couple of days ago...is moving eastward across the Main Development Region. This will help increase divergence and convective activity associated with the wave.

Unfortunately, the system will encounter a more stable environment in the central Atlantic over the weekend. I doubt it becomes anything of huge significance intensity wise. Reminds me of Dorian...maybe stronger.

Chance of overall cyclone formation - 60%, if you ask me.

I doubt the East Atlantic will remain as quiet as the GFS is making it out to be.

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92L/INV/XX/XX
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.