Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Which one will grab the name Erin first?.The African wave? or the caribbean disturbance?.And which bloggers(s) will get banned in the process while fighting over these storms?.Stay tuned to wunderground.
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Quoting 125. DavidHOUTX:


What is that bright flash of light that flies across the bottom of the image? That can't be the sun can it?

Looks like the sun to me.
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Quoting 125. DavidHOUTX:


What is that bright flash of light that flies across the bottom of the image? That can't be the sun can it?


Yes; really cool as you follow it across just North of the Equator.
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Weather Extremes
Japan Breaks National Heat Record. Chinese Heat Wave Continues
Posted by: Christopher C. Burt, 3:48 PM CDT on August 12, 2013



Japan Breaks National Heat Record. Chinese Heat Wave Continues

An all-time national heat record was set in Japan today (August 12th) when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto (part of Kochi Prefecture). The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. Tokyo endured its warmest daily minimum on August 11th with a low of 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan following a minimum of 30.8°C (87.4°F) at Itoigawa on August 22, 1990.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 121. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I knew you guys would feel the effects from this disturbance first.

Hi Caleb! Yeah, it seems as if it will be raining for most of the day.
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Quoting 118. weathermanwannabe:
Also note that the sheer tendancy is dropping per the latest CIMSS chart (below) in the area where the wave is currently headed.

Link

We could conceivably have a TD before the disturbance reaches the Yucatan if the sheer really drops by Thursday morning and this persistent convection continues .......If that happens, we will have a better idea (after more model runs) as to where it might be headed over the weekend.


Indeed, the upper level shear axis has shifted west to the western Caribbean as subequatorial ridging builds from the south. Conditions slowly improving, but will there be enough time. That is the question.
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12Z CMC 2 TS in the next 5days
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It's like model wars you have the FIM, NAVGEM, and GEM vs. GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET. The new vs. the old. I'll side with the new kids on the block we have a lot to prove. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 122. moonlightcowboy:
LLC trying to consolidate at 16n,81w ? ? ? ;)



What is that bright flash of light that flies across the bottom of the image? That can't be the sun can it?
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Have they moved the buses to a low-level parking lot in NOLA yet?
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YOU THINK THE LOW DEVELOPES IN THE GULFAND HEADS MORE EAST NORTHEAST
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LLC trying to consolidate at 16n,81w ? ? ? ;)



Shear has to be relaxing. If an LLC develops in this area (16n,81w), it will most assuredly come just west of nearly due north given weaker high pressures just above it. And, it's hard to discern the timing of the CONUS trough and its affect on the more substantial mid-latitude high pressure currently of the GoM.

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Quoting 102. nigel20:
Thanks Dr. Masters....Good morning all!

It has been a very wet morning here in Jamaica.




The above radar is from 10:10 local time.
I knew you guys would feel the effects from this disturbance first.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 82. Neapolitan:
So here we are with yet another broken all-time national high temperature record. That is, by my count, more than 30 such incidences in just the past few years, compared to but a single all-time national record low over the same span. And here we are with yet another deadly, deep, and dangerously prolonged heat wave that's claiming lives--and I've lost count how many of those there've been recently.

I know some bristle at the term, but there's truly no better adjective to describe what's going on than "unprecedented".


This is a tropical blog and we all are discussing the tropics. There is another site on The Weather Underground that you can post your non-tropics related posts. Much appreciated and thank you.
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Some moderate showers is being recorded along the south coast of Jamaica.

MetServiceJA ‏@MetserviceJA 2h
Rainfall amounts have exceeded the threshold in Spanish Town and we've measured 53mm
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Also note that the sheer tendancy is dropping per the latest CIMSS chart (below) in the area where the wave is currently headed.

Link

We could conceivably have a TD before the disturbance reaches the Yucatan if the sheer really drops by Thursday morning and this persistent convection continues .......If that happens, we will have a better idea (after more model runs) as to where it might be headed over the weekend.
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The CMC should be given props for ALWAYS seeing the glass as half full. :)
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GEM 84 hrs.



NAVGEM 102 hrs.



FIM will likely continue to show a stronger system than portrayed by these models. The GFS still shows a TD/Weak TS. I will go with a moderate TS, conditions are almost going to be similar than with Andrea with maybe a little more of a favorable environment in the GOM.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
CMC is just too far west for that to happen..dry air and shear will prevent that.
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CMC model bullish...GFS may be changed names to POOF.

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12Z CMC 102HR
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111. FOREX
Quoting 110. scottsvb:

This system has to develop further north and east near western Cuba and head north closer to 85W to stay away from shear and drier air in the NW GOM that will be sliding east with the surface trough. If this system gets to about 87W...it won't develop if at all. All the midlevel moisture will be pulled NE into the trough and a LLC vortex will be out west of there in the drier air SE of NO. This is the set up. So again, if you want this to develop...this has to stay further east near 22N and 85W by Thurs morning, head north then NE towards the Big Bend. Right now, I give this a 30% chance or less until the GFS or Euro back off on the shear and dry air over the GOM but looking at the pattern, I have to agree cause you can't go by models all the time, actual atmospheric sciences come into play.


Thanks.
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Quoting 98. FOREX:


It's Thursdays GFS I am more afraid of.

This system has to develop further north and east near western Cuba and head north closer to 85W to stay away from shear and drier air in the NW GOM that will be sliding east with the surface trough. If this system gets to about 87W...it won't develop if at all. All the midlevel moisture will be pulled NE into the trough and a LLC vortex will be out west of there in the drier air SE of NO. This is the set up. So again, if you want this to develop...this has to stay further east near 22N and 85W by Thurs morning, head north then NE towards the Big Bend. Right now, I give this a 30% chance or less until the GFS or Euro back off on the shear and dry air over the GOM but looking at the pattern, I have to agree cause you can't go by models all the time, actual atmospheric sciences come into play.
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Quoting 82. Neapolitan:
So here we are with yet another broken all-time national high temperature record. That is, by my count, more than 30 such incidences in just the past few years, compared to but a single all-time national record low over the same span. And here we are with yet another deadly, deep, and dangerously prolonged heat wave that's claiming lives--and I've lost count how many of those there've been recently.

I know some bristle at the term, but there's truly no better adjective to describe what's going on than "unprecedented".



There is a blog for that, too.

We are speaking of the tropics in this one.
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Thanks Dr. Glad I want fishing this past weekend near Apalachicola when we had nice weather; looks like another washout this weekend for the Northern Gulf/Florida coast.

A word of caution for the folks in the Big Bend of Florida for the weekend; if a storm does develop from the wave/low, and it does track towards a FL Panhandle landfall location, much of the rain and heaviest bands (and some minor storm surge) could be in the NE quadrant affecting the Big Bend region if the system grows to a nice size.

All boating/coastal interests from the Panhandle all the way to the St. Marks area in the Big Bend need to keep a close eye on Friday in case you need to tie down and properly secure your boats, etc, with not too much notice once/if the system gets picked up by the Trof.
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Quoting 101. allancalderini:
The rain left by Utor will be staggering with that big size it has.


Another key point, since it has a good westerly component to its trajectory even after it makes landfall, Utors' southern side will still have access to warm waters that will continue to feed in for rainbands even after the storm weakens.
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Nasty weather here already. Lots of thunder and lightning.
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12z continues the no development trend along with the Euro model. Hello break in the season for a little bit of time.
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
Thanks Dr. Masters....Good morning all!

It has been a very wet morning here in Jamaica.




The above radar is from 10:10 local time.
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Quoting 91. ILwthrfan:
I'm guessing that the dry air from China is being entrained into Utors' North side. He has yet to have a moist north side since yesterday. Hopefully this will keep him in check. Utor's massive size may bring a bit bigger storm surge than your typical 100 knot cyclone.

The rain left by Utor will be staggering with that big size it has.
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
A little shaken going on 6.7 mag


13-AUG-2013 15:43:13 5.83 -78.24 6.7 4 0 SOUTH OF PANAMA
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Quoting 53. scottsvb:
GFS 12Z shows nothing more than a trough heading north into the panhandle... this sounds reasonable at this time. Unless this stays further east...shear and dry air from the NW GOM will keep everything scrambled. The air patterns on all levels are not going to be good for development.


It's Thursdays GFS I am more afraid of.
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Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
We need to chill with the CMC model, it OVER does everything. this will not be anything other than a TD/low grade TS
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Quoting 90. louisianaboy444:
The reason the 12Z GFS barely develops this system, if at all, is because of a more hostile environment portrayed over the Gulf of Mexico. The 00Z GFS did not deepen the trough as much over the Gulf of Mexico, so wind shear was not as severe. The 12Z GFS shows the trough deepening greatly and even spawns some cut-off energy over the Gulf...High shear environment that would allow very little to form.





Correct. I told them that yesterday and last night but excitement clouds reality.
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24HR CMC
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Better chances of some mojo with the ECMWF and UKMET on board



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I'm guessing that the dry air from China is being entrained into Utors' North side. He has yet to have a moist north side since yesterday. Hopefully this will keep him in check. Utor's massive size may bring a bit bigger storm surge than your typical 100 knot cyclone.

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The reason the 12Z GFS barely develops this system, if at all, is because of a more hostile environment portrayed over the Gulf of Mexico. The 00Z GFS did not deepen the trough as much over the Gulf of Mexico, so wind shear was not as severe. The 12Z GFS shows the trough deepening greatly and even spawns some cut-off energy over the Gulf...High shear environment that would allow very little to form.



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Post 82 lol!! Hear of the dust bowl! Enjoy life a liile.
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Quoting 84. CaribBoy:


BORING cause it's moving too far north... if every waves do that, we will have a very dry september. That's already depressing.


Depends on how the Azores and Bermuda Highs are oriented and how strong they are if the Caribbean will get CV systems.
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its a good time to review the flood insurance huh..geez.
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00GFS HR 138 MON AUG 19
TOTAL PRECIP

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12Z CMC is now coming out
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Quoting 55. MAweatherboy1:

12z GFS develops it:



BORING cause it's moving too far north... if every waves do that, we will have a very dry september. That's already depressing.
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Quoting 68. ryang:
Tropical waves seem to be leaving Africa at a higher latitude than normal.
Once the "wave-train" gets chugging, we should see low and high latitude waves.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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