Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 170. Levi32:
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low from the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.



Are we looking at the waves emerging from Africa, or is this in reference to the Caribbean disturbance.

BTW - has your tour of duty ended in OK, and you're back in AK now? Overall, how was your experience?
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Quoting 172. Stormchaser2007:
Really wouldn't be shocked to see that easterly wave off of Africa develop as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave interacts with it shortly.

Could be another Dorian/Chantal


Please not another Dorian :s This pathetic storm gave me headache and disappointment ... same for Chantal. Haven't got a drop from BOTH!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
Quoting 172. Stormchaser2007:
Really wouldn't be shocked to see that easterly wave off of Africa develop as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave interacts with it shortly.

Could be another Dorian/Chantal


I doubt it honestly. A lot more of the ensemble members and models like this one than they did with Dorian and Chantal.

Plus I don't think the blog could handle another disappointment like that.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
.
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Utor - a small eye is closing its north side again?

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Quoting 173. mikatnight:
Anybody else having a problem with the blog loading endlessly?

Yes, on and off.
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Winds WNW/NW out of of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, center must have move further North, IMO This Caribbean disturbance is more organized than anticipated should be 20-30% at 2pm.
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Quoting Levi32:
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low to the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.



Quite a few members develop a CATL system...
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Quoting 170. Levi32:
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low to the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.



The majority of them develop the Cape Verde wave to some degree too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
Quoting 170. Levi32:
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low from the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.



CV activity also too far north :( I can't stand boring weather during ASO !!
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Anybody else having a problem with the blog loading endlessly?
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Really wouldn't be shocked to see that easterly wave off of Africa develop as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave interacts with it shortly.

Could be another Dorian/Chantal
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Quoting 140. CybrTeddy:
Worth noting the GFS has had an annoying northerly bias with tropical waves from what I've been seeing. Made Dorian go nearly due-north over the Cape Verde islands. This did not occur. It's also been showing in the long-range tropical waves so far north that they're leaving Africa practically right over the Azores.


Yes and that's really depressing... next!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low to the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting 159. Drakoen:
Surface pressures are not falling and there is little evidence of a surface circulation forming.
That's true, but there may be a downward trend ...

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Quoting 117. unknowncomic:


So all modelS are showing a boring fish again in the CATL... as if the expected reduced activity due to "cooler" water wasn't enough!!!
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Quoting 120. luvtogolf:


This is a tropical blog and we all are discussing the tropics. There is another site on The Weather Underground that you can post your non-tropics related posts. Much appreciated and thank you.


Dr. Masters mentions the record warmth in his blog, therefore, it is "fair game." So therefore, it is fine to mention it... as long as people leave their political propaganda out of it and respect the opinions of the other bloggers (who may or may not dispute the validity of "climate change" or "global warming"), then all should be good.
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Quoting 158. ncstorm:
WPC 11am discussion:
Seems the Euro is being highly favored.

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... GFS/CMC RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAY 5 SUN. AS PER CONTINUITY FROM
NHC/WPC COORDINATION FROM MON AUG 12 PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD
CONSENSUS OF OTHER GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT TAKES
A MORE SRN TRACK INTO THE SWRN GULF. ONE OTHER ISSUE OVER THE
EAST IS EXACT POSITIONING OF THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SFC FRONT.
THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD BUT APPEARS TO HAVE
BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM EARLIER DAYS.

OVERALL PREFER A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN SOLNS...
LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MEAN... TO DEPICT THE LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT IN THE FCST AND PROVIDE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE
WHERE DIFFERENCES EXIST
.



Could someone help clarify what this means? What is the 'reasonable compromise'? Thanks
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Quoting 115. GTstormChaserCaleb:
GEM 84 hrs.



NAVGEM 102 hrs.



FIM will likely continue to show a stronger system than portrayed by these models. The GFS still shows a TD/Weak TS. I will go with a moderate TS, conditions are almost going to be similar than with Andrea with maybe a little more of a favorable environment in the GOM.


Seems unlikely, but if the FIM,CMC, and Navy model verifies,will be very hard to see the models for the upcoming days, especially GFS flopping some much this year and the Euro, catching almost nothing!!
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Quoting 153. LAsurvivor:


Boy! Everybody sure is getting testy. I believe Dr. Masters mentioned the record heat in Japan. Call me stupid or something, but I think we quite often discuss Dr. Masters'blog. In fact, there are those on this blog who often take up bandwidth to discuss breakfast, the latest score and other items totally unrelated to anything about weather.

Why is it that Patrap can comment about record heat and Neopolitan can't? Hmmm.

Good point.
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Quoting 152. Edortiz1988:
The disturbance will be a moderate tropical storm with the conditions setting up in the GOM during that time. The steering will be more east of what the models are forecasting because of the trough. The biggest threat area will be from the panhandle to the west coast of Florida similar track to Andrea. Plenty of flood risks across central Florida with the the ground being so saturated the risk sinkholes rises as well.


Interesting prediction for a new member of the Blog; I will up your ante and bring it up to Cat 1 if a TD does form before reaching the Yucatan Channel and it has favorable sheer conditions if it passes over the lower Gulf warm pool noted below...................... :)

Link
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Quoting 121. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I knew you guys would feel the effects from this disturbance first.

Come on! No way! Causing rain there? Good call if you called it. I also know (predict) that wherever the system goes it will be raining there. I feel it in my bones. My gut. I just know it.
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The radar is updating once again. Here is the latest radar image.


here is the link: Jamaican radar
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Surface pressures are not falling and there is little evidence of a surface circulation forming.
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WPC 11am discussion:
Seems the Euro is being highly favored.

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... GFS/CMC RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAY 5 SUN. AS PER CONTINUITY FROM
NHC/WPC COORDINATION FROM MON AUG 12 PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD
CONSENSUS OF OTHER GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT TAKES
A MORE SRN TRACK INTO THE SWRN GULF. ONE OTHER ISSUE OVER THE
EAST IS EXACT POSITIONING OF THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SFC FRONT.
THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD BUT APPEARS TO HAVE
BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM EARLIER DAYS.

OVERALL PREFER A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN SOLNS...
LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MEAN... TO DEPICT THE LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT IN THE FCST AND PROVIDE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE
WHERE DIFFERENCES EXIST.

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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
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No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎August ‎13, ‎2013, ‏‎7 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Tue, 13 Aug 2013 17:15:01 GMT
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2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific


green ball92E.INVEST



Central Pacific


green ball90C.INVEST



West Pacific


green ball11W.UTOR



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere


green ball90S.INVEST
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Quoting 142. Hurricanes305:


The satellite data support this as well. Wind shear have certainly drop a little from this morning allowing the convection to concentrate a little more. I think we could see development from this before the Yucatan.





Thank you.. starting to feel a little hope again here in TX.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
Quoting 120. luvtogolf:


This is a tropical blog and we all are discussing the tropics. There is another site on The Weather Underground that you can post your non-tropics related posts. Much appreciated and thank you.


Boy! Everybody sure is getting testy. I believe Dr. Masters mentioned the record heat in Japan. Call me stupid or something, but I think we quite often discuss Dr. Masters'blog. In fact, there are those on this blog who often take up bandwidth to discuss breakfast, the latest score and other items totally unrelated to anything about weather.

Why is it that Patrap can comment about record heat and Neopolitan can't? Hmmm.
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The disturbance will be a moderate tropical storm with the conditions setting up in the GOM during that time. The steering will be more east of what the models are forecasting because of the trough. The biggest threat area will be from the panhandle to the west coast of Florida similar track to Andrea. Plenty of flood risks across central Florida with the the ground being so saturated the risk sinkholes rises as well.
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Quoting 141. hu2007:
hi grothar ,a nice big low coming off from africa and from here and out is very well be the beginning of a active 4 to 6 weeks of high activity


Grothar has temporarily left the building also.

Quoting 145. ILwthrfan:


Read the entire blog, there is information regarding Tokyo's record high minimum temperature of 86.7 F and also information regarding China's drought. He's very much well within topic. With respect
Jared


Given the size of Utor, it would have been good for China if it could penetrate that high pressure system to its north, providing much needed rains and relief from the heat in central China. Unbelievable the temps they have been experiencing. Makes me wonder how the estimates for economic impact are made, given that much of China's economy is artificially created. Are those reliable figures?
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Quoting 149. hurricanes2018:
I am dong great today I am dancing by my computer and waiting for invest 92L TO COME SOON..

Seriously...can't wait for an invest.
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Quoting 137. xcool:
Drakoen hello how r u
I am dong great today I am dancing by my computer and waiting for invest 92L TO COME SOON..
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Quoting 127. SFLWeatherman:
12Z CMC 2 TS in the next 5days
Like I mention activity is about to start,someone bring the popcorn please.
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Quoting 120. luvtogolf:


This is a tropical blog and we all are discussing the tropics. There is another site on The Weather Underground that you can post your non-tropics related posts. Much appreciated and thank you.


I may be new, but it's obvious that this is a weather blog.
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146. IKE
Need an invest started on the western Caribbean disturbance.
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Quoting 120. luvtogolf:


This is a tropical blog and we all are discussing the tropics. There is another site on The Weather Underground that you can post your non-tropics related posts. Much appreciated and thank you.


Read the entire blog, there is information regarding Tokyo's record high minimum temperature of 86.7 F and also information regarding China's drought. He's very much well within topic. With respect
Jared
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Quoting 29. EyEtoEyE:
I would like to know what about that spin East of Florida , it looks to me it's down to the surface ? And it looks to me it's moving to the West ? Don't know if it's a ULL or not?


Yeah, it's an ULL. Likely to get pushed northward, and dampen out as trough swings in from the west later this week from off the SE CONUS coastline. At least that's my line of thinking.
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Quoting 118. weathermanwannabe:
Also note that the sheer tendancy is dropping per the latest CIMSS chart (below) in the area where the wave is currently headed.

Link

We could conceivably have a TD before the disturbance reaches the Yucatan if the sheer really drops by Thursday morning and this persistent convection continues .......If that happens, we will have a better idea (after more model runs) as to where it might be headed over the weekend.


The satellite data support this as well. Wind shear have certainly drop a little from this morning allowing the convection to concentrate a little more. I think we could see development from this before the Yucatan.



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Quoting 39. Grothar:
Blobzilla has left the building


hi grothar ,a nice big low coming off from africa and from here and out is very well be the beginning of a active 4 to 6 weeks of high activity
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Worth noting the GFS has had an annoying northerly bias with tropical waves from what I've been seeing. Made Dorian go nearly due-north over the Cape Verde islands. This did not occur. It's also been showing in the long-range tropical waves so far north that they're leaving Africa practically right over the Azores.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
Current OSCAT shows a broad circulation at around 79-80W and about 11 N lots of scattered 25-30 knot wind barbs primarily to the north of that circulation.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8579
12z develops both the Caribbean disturbance at the AEW, keeps the forward weak and the latter too far north to develop - perhaps too far north? CMC keeps it south and has it really taking off.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24265
137. xcool
Drakoen hello how r u
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12Z GFS and 12Z CMC and 00Z HWRF develops the wave off Africa
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12z CMC has its big CV storm again with an earlier recurve this run.

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Quoting 128. Drakoen:


Indeed, the upper level shear axis has shifted west to the western Caribbean as subequatorial ridging builds from the south. Conditions slowly improving, but will there be enough time. That is the question.


Thanks for backing up my layman's observation with some science; my eyes tell me that this system wants to form earlier rather than later.
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Which one will grab the name Erin first?.The African wave? or the caribbean disturbance?.And which bloggers(s) will get banned in the process while fighting over these storms?.Stay tuned to wunderground.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.