Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 228. clwstmchasr:


For which system?
the Caribbean system.
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Puzzles me as to why the ECMWF OP doesn't develop anything in the Atlantic with this kind of MJO setup.


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Well, Im going with the Farmers Almanac and say its going north!! No way I can be wrong!





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15650
Quoting 222. Levi32:


I actually took the project in a new direction and found a significant relationship between spring OK tornado activity and antecedent winter 500mb height in the Pacific Northwest region. It turns out that troughing (ridging) there during Nov-Feb tends to lead to enhanced (reduced) tornado activity during the subsequent Mar-Jun period in Oklahoma.


Fantastic! Well received among the meteorologists there? Well, now we have something to look at over the winter to see if we need to sweat it out during the spring. Thanks for the info.
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Quoting 222. Levi32:


I actually took the project in a new direction and found a significant relationship between spring OK tornado activity and antecedent winter 500mb height in the Pacific Northwest region. It turns out that troughing (ridging) there during Nov-Feb tends to lead to enhanced (reduced) tornado activity during the subsequent Mar-Jun period in Oklahoma. The Rossby wave configuration actually serves as a possible explanation for the precipitation pattern we observed, which is why I investigated 500mb height in the first place. It ended up connecting really well.


Well done, Levi, always be creative :)
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Quoting 119. nigel20:
Some moderate showers is being recorded along the south coast of Jamaica.

MetServiceJA ‏@MetserviceJA 2h
Rainfall amounts have exceeded the threshold in Spanish Town and we've measured 53mm


That's good news, I know you guys can use the rain, just hope you don't get too much one time as that is never good!
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Quoting 213. ecflweatherfan:


I think the WNW winds at Puerto Cabezas were probably the result of local winds caused by a thunderstorm complex in the area, not representative of the synoptic winds as a whole, as you mentioned, they have resumed ENE.


Could well be. You have to be careful not to rely on one data set only as the report is only a snapshot of a single point in time.
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Link

Low in link this appears to drifting Northwards
IMO.
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12z FIM-7 still showing Northeastern Gulf Coast, stronger on this run:



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8418
Quoting 208. clwstmchasr:


But what is the common theme that we continue to hear despite now entering the heart of the season - conditions just are not that favorable across the tropics.


Bummer
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 203. daddyjames:


Happy to hear that you benefited greatly from your experience here in OK. Who knows, maybe you'll be back in the near future.

And what became of your project on any the correlation between winter precipitation and the following spring tornado activity - none?


I actually took the project in a new direction and found a significant relationship between spring OK tornado activity and antecedent winter 500mb height in the Pacific Northwest region. It turns out that troughing (ridging) there during Nov-Feb tends to lead to enhanced (reduced) tornado activity during the subsequent Mar-Jun period in Oklahoma. The Rossby wave configuration actually serves as a possible explanation for the precipitation pattern we observed, which is why I investigated 500mb height in the first place. It ended up connecting really well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting 212. Levi32:


Hi Kman,

The 0z GFS's 18-hour forecast valid 18z today (in 15 minutes) had the 1012mb contour over Jamaica, but the METAR from last hour (we'll see what this hour says) had the pressure at 1013mb at Sangster/Monteg, Jamaica. It's a small difference, but could reflect a slight bias towards feeding back the northern portion of the wave, if it is not developing as forecasted. We'll see how the next 24 hours go.

MKJS 131700Z 32007KT 9999 TS BKN017 BKN022CB 30/22 Q1013



Hi,

All we can do really is see how this plays out. Pressure here now is 1013.6. I calibrated my barometer yesterday with ATC at our airport so that reading is solid. This may be another system that spins up near to Cozumel if at all.
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Quoting Drakoen:
NHC may wait till a some type of circulation becomes apparent before making the Caribbean disturbance an invest. The wave off Africa has an easily identifiable 850mb vort max associated with it and they should be able to run their models easier on that.


I could see how they make this an invest sometime tomorrow or Thursday if the model support kicks up.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Quoting 214. washingtonian115:
Please don't like the african wave be weak storm again.But it probably will thanks to dry air again.
Unless something changes I believe the wave will be another Dorian,and it will probably develop first than the caribbean system.
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We may have 2 invests later today.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
hmm interesting 20%/30%
and
10%/20%

we should have 92L now
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216. FOREX
Quoting 200. StormTrackerScott:
Here we go folks. Fasten your seat belts!



So does it sound to you that the NHC is leaning towards a much weaker storm for the gulf?

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NHC may wait till a some type of circulation becomes apparent before making the Caribbean disturbance an invest. The wave off Africa has an easily identifiable 850mb vort max associated with it and they should be able to run their models easier on that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
Please don't like the african wave be a weak storm again.But it probably will thanks to dry air again.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
Quoting 191. kmanislander:
The situation in the Caribbean is somewhat complicated at this time. The surface low itself is way down in the far SW Caribbean and looks to be at risk of going ashore near the border between Panama and Costa Rica. Satellite imagery shows a very broad rotation in the cloud field over a large part of the Western Caribbean but pressures at the buoys to the South of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands show pressures to be relatively high. Puerto Cabezas winds have shifted around to the ENE again so whatever was trying to spin up East of there earlier has backed off.

In short, the loop imagery is more impressive than the system really is for the time being. With the area of lowest pressure sitting so close to land I would not expect significant development any time soon. Yesterday I thought another low would spin up S of Hispaniola but that has not happened. It is still possible that the low far South will meander into the Epac and allow the remainder of the system to reorganise but for now its more wait and see.



I think the WNW winds at Puerto Cabezas were probably the result of local winds caused by a thunderstorm complex in the area, not representative of the synoptic winds as a whole, as you mentioned, they have resumed ENE.
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Quoting 191. kmanislander:
The situation in the Caribbean is somewhat complicated at this time. The surface low itself is way down in the far SW Caribbean and looks to be at risk of going ashore near the border between Panama and Costa Rica. Satellite imagery shows a very broad rotation in the cloud field over a large part of the Western Caribbean but pressures at the buoys to the South of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands show pressures to be relatively high. Puerto Cabezas winds have shifted around to the ENE again so whatever was trying to spin up East of there earlier has backed off.

In short, the loop imagery is more impressive than the system really is for the time being. With the area of lowest pressure sitting so close to land I would not expect significant development any time soon. Yesterday I thought another low would spin up S of Hispaniola but that has not happened. It is still possible that the low far South will meander into the Epac and allow the remainder of the system to reorganise but for now its more wait and see.



Hi Kman,

The 0z GFS's 18-hour forecast valid 18z today (in 15 minutes) had the 1012mb isobar over Jamaica, but the METAR from last hour (we'll see what this hour says) had the pressure at 1013mb at Sangster/Monteg, Jamaica. It's a small difference, but could reflect a slight bias towards feeding back the northern portion of the wave if it is not developing as forecasted. We'll see how the next 24 hours go.

MKJS 131700Z 32007KT 9999 TS BKN017 BKN022CB 30/22 Q1013

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting 187. SFLWeatherman:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
Here comes Erin and Fernand.
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Portlight gears up for Hurricanes

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128619
Just posting the observations from the only two scattered bouys anywhere close to the wave:

In the Western Caribbean between the Yucatan and Cuba:

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.002N 81.501W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 16:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (70°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (110°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 82.9 F

In the Central Caribbean several hundred miles due south of the gap between Jamaica and Haiti:

Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 16:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (98°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.87 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Dew Point: 82.8 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F



No significant pressure drops (actually rising) in the Eastern fringe of the convection.....Have to keep an eye on what happens in 48 hours due South of the Western tip Cuba.
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Quoting 201. hurricanes2018:
easterly wave off of Africa develop and move west and move back to wsw by the high to the north by looking at levi map there

I think so too!!
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Quoting 199. Drakoen:
NHC mentions African wave :)


Hopefully it wont move NW :( we need rain
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
Quoting 153. LAsurvivor:


Boy! Everybody sure is getting testy. I believe Dr. Masters mentioned the record heat in Japan. Call me stupid or something, but I think we quite often discuss Dr. Masters'blog. In fact, there are those on this blog who often take up bandwidth to discuss breakfast, the latest score and other items totally unrelated to anything about weather.

Why is it that Patrap can comment about record heat and Neopolitan can't? Hmmm.
I think it's just that a few here are so fearful of climate change and what it means that they'll pounce on any comment speaking of record heat even when that comment doesn't say a word about either climate change or global warming.

Ah, well... ;-)
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4666
Quoting 190. Levi32:


Sorry, referring to our Caribbean wave.

I'm back in AK now, waiting to head back to UAF. Norman, OK was the best experience of my life...I wish I could go back.


Happy to hear that you benefited greatly from your experience here in OK. Who knows, maybe you'll be back in the near future.

And what became of your project on any the correlation between winter precipitation and the following spring tornado activity - none?
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Quoting 195. washingtonian115:
No!


XD
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
easterly wave off of Africa develop and move west and move back to wsw by the high to the north by looking at levi map there
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Here we go folks. Fasten your seat belts!

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NHC mentions African wave :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi 2007. What do you mean when you say another Chantal/Dorian? There is less dry air at MDR now.


The MDR is still more stable than I'd like to see for this time in the year.

Shear should be rather favorable and the upper level support from the CCKW could help the wave overcome this...

ECMWF Ens. did show a nice area of moisture heading toward the Caribbean that could possibly be this wave.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
NHC gives a 20/30 chance of development in the Carib, and says that winds may become more conducive in the NW Carib, and then less conducive in the southern GOMEX. Also nice to note that they added the TWave off Africa, but they say that will encounter a more stable environment by this weekend.
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visiable loop. gradually the clouds are moving north especially just west of jamaica it does not look very favorable
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Quoting 181. CybrTeddy:


I doubt it honestly. A lot more of the ensemble members and models like this one than they did with Dorian and Chantal.

Plus I don't think the blog could handle another disappointment like that.
No!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
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Tired with their WNW mention.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
Quoting 170. Levi32:
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low to the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.



Good afternoon Levi. I tend to disagree as all the models seem to be favoring either the FL Big Bend or FL Panhandle due to a vort max rounding the base of the trough later this week causing the trough to dig all the way down to the northern Gulf Coast. Also this disturbance seems to gaining more steam.

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The situation in the Caribbean is somewhat complicated at this time. The surface low itself is way down in the far SW Caribbean and looks to be at risk of going ashore near the border between Panama and Costa Rica. Satellite imagery shows a very broad rotation in the cloud field over a large part of the Western Caribbean but pressures at the buoys to the South of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands show pressures to be relatively high. Puerto Cabezas winds have shifted around to the ENE again so whatever was trying to spin up East of there earlier has backed off.

In short, the loop imagery is more impressive than the system really is for the time being. With the area of lowest pressure sitting so close to land I would not expect significant development any time soon. Yesterday I thought another low would spin up S of Hispaniola but that has not happened. It is still possible that the low far South will meander into the Epac and allow the remainder of the system to reorganise but for now its more wait and see.

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Quoting 183. daddyjames:


Are we looking at the waves emerging from Africa, or is this in reference to the Caribbean disturbance.

BTW - has your tour of duty ended in OK, and you're back in AK now? Overall, how was your experience?


Sorry, referring to our Caribbean wave.

I'm back in AK now, waiting to head back to UAF. Norman, OK was the best experience of my life...I wish I could go back.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting 187. SFLWeatherman:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

Good!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1648
Quoting 181. CybrTeddy:


I doubt it honestly. A lot more of the ensemble members and models like this one than they did with Dorian and Chantal.

Plus I don't think the blog could handle another disappointment like that.


Lol I see I'm not the only one that was disappointed with Dorian. This thing -- sorry I can't call that a storm-- stole all my energy, and another event like this will sure bring me to depression XD
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4666
Quoting 172. Stormchaser2007:
Really wouldn't be shocked to see that easterly wave off of Africa develop as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave interacts with it shortly.

Could be another Dorian/Chantal


Hi 2007. What do you mean when you say another Chantal/Dorian? There is less dry air at MDR now.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
The WPC, supposedly after coordination with NHC, still hasn't budged from a westerly track of the wave into the western gulf instead of a turn to the north. If low pressure fails to organize near 20N in the western Caribbean, and the monsoon low becomes more of an anchor to the south, the wave is more likely to just cross the Yucatan and not turn north abruptly like many models show. We still have 24-36 hours to figure out where the wave will try to consolidate a low pressure center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
184. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 173. mikatnight:
Anybody else having a problem with the blog loading endlessly?


Its some of the graphics that have been posted.
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Quoting 170. Levi32:
The 0z GFS EnKF ensembles seem to favor more influence from the monsoon low from the south, with the wave consolidating at a lower latitude. The ultimate result is a track much farther to the west than the operational GFS ensembles.



Are we looking at the waves emerging from Africa, or is this in reference to the Caribbean disturbance.

BTW - has your tour of duty ended in OK, and you're back in AK now? Overall, how was your experience?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.