Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)

not good at all!!

Both models show a broad ridge across a large chunk of the Continental United States. The oranges and reds indicate higher than average 500mb heights. Based on the data from these models, high temperatures could potentially reach the upper 80's at some point next week. If this happens, there would also be elevated levels of humidity. The 12z Euro ensembles are not out yet, but the 00z run showed above average highs into southern Canada and the latest 12z GFS ensembles show a similar setup.



say goodbye to the cool weather!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 46 Comments: 77097
I put odds at 80 % this year will be below average! My arguement on why is above.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 325. MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, probably. Doesn't seem like they're interested in responding to intricate meteorological questions...just the regular folks asking about hurricane preparedness and stuff lol.


Might be a question too intricate to answer in a facebook comment.
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Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)

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Quoting 324. tropicfreak:


MissWx is right. Come on now, you have to admit that you can be very critical of those who are more knowledgeable about weather than you are. *Cough* Reedzone *cough*


lol
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328. NCstu
Quoting 301. panamasteve:


Where are you taking MET101 and have you read your textbook yet?


Ha! I'm a curious statistician. I vaguely remember these textbook things you speak of.
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2013 : H storm : Duration August 3 – August 11
Peak intensity 105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min) 976 mbar (hPa)

2009 H storm : Duration August 22 – August 28
Peak intensity 65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min) 995 mbar (hPa)
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 307. DavidHOUTX:


Or if they chose to respond lol


So what do you think with this SWCARIB wave.. are you going with the models or your 'lyin' eyes?

I think I'm going with my lyin' eyes.
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Quoting 309. Levi32:


They likely wouldn't respond at all lol. That's how it was at NWS Norman. They got some interesting questions on Facebook. There was one involving the intimate dynamics of zonal gravity waves, and we talked about it for a good while out of curiosity, but they ended up never responding to it.
Lol, probably. Doesn't seem like they're interested in responding to intricate meteorological questions...just the regular folks asking about hurricane preparedness and stuff lol.
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Quoting 297. scottsvb:


Well Mississippi you can always put me on ignore if you think I was cause I said that they shouldn't question him if they don't have the facts cause Levi said that they didn't. If that is being critical then you have personal issues.


MissWx is right. Come on now, you have to admit that you can be very critical of those who are more knowledgeable about weather than you are. *Cough* Reedzone *cough*
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting 269. Birthmark:

And did you take his advice? ;)
No.It was still pretty rude though..
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Lest we all forget:

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Quoting 300. Camille33:
The epac is well ahead of schedule this year more so than 2009 this to me says it is more favored than atlantic!


Cooling SSTs in the tropical Atlantic before 120w and 5-20n beg to differ as well as subsidence located over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Weak La Niña enso conditions net to differ as well, and the upward phase in the MJO over the Caribbean and Eastern Atlantic, and downward phase in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting 308. luvtogolf:


You have to understand that there is no way we can have or accept any signs other than a warming planet. Any mention other than a warming planet is immediately discounted. Why? Because then science would be wrong and we all know that can not happen.


Well, we'll find out eventually - right or wrong. Those of you who know me, know where I lean.

So, let's stop blowing hot air and vilifying anyone today. There is too much other stuff going on of interest.
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Quoting 308. luvtogolf:


You have to understand that there is no way we can have or accept any signs other than a warming planet. Any mention other than a warming planet is immediately discounted. Why? Because then science would be wrong and we all know that can not happen.

I'll tell ya, if science is wrong about the GH effects of CO2, it would show up in other ways in other areas of science --and in very obvious ways.
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Quoting 309. Levi32:


They likely wouldn't respond at all lol. That's how it was at NWS Norman. They got some interesting questions on Facebook. There was one involving the intimate dynamics of zonal gravity waves, and we talked about it for a good while out of curiosity, but they ended up never responding to it.

I would ask them why is Epac well above normal to date and why do they not see that? It is ahead of 2004 and 2009!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 293. Tazmanian:


What about that upper level low that been spining out there for a few days now and every so closer too FL dos it have a ch of fourming in too any thing I find it odd no one been talking about it


Hey, Taz... No one has mentioned it basically because it is not worthy of mentioning. Sure, it has a nice spin... but it's only in the upper levels. In all likelihood, this ULL over the central Atlantic will dampen out and/or lift north as a short wave trough moves off the east coast of the US.
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Link
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EAST COAST.

DRIER AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO
THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST.

MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST COAST AND
DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA. PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE
NORTHWARD. AS FOR THE WAVE ITSELF...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND MODELS
DIFFER ON WHICH PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS COULD DEVELOP. THE
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...CANADIAN...AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EITHER WAY...AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. SO POPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE BROAD TROUGH MAY DEEPEN INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
MISSOURI ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD LET DEEP MOISTURE
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH END
SCATTERED POPS ONCE AGAIN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FLORIDA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE
TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS
HEIGHTS BUILD...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL EMERGE...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&
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Quoting 304. daddyjames:


Levi could further clarify this, but in the context of the research done by the undergraduate fellows, most often the methods would be extensively critiqued. Since they are relatively inexperienced to analyzing the data. Given that the methods that Levi utilized were not critiqued, and the encouragement received to publish his results, I would say that the meteorologists there were very impressed with what he accomplished.

That is not necessarily a common experience - given that he also took the initiative to investigate something he was not "assigned" to do.


agreed. I'm a MET but I'm no DR in Atmospheric Science.... we question everything...but if Levi said they didn't question his data, it's probably cause they couldn't give him reasons on why it's faulty.... just my guess. So good job Levi.
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313. JLPR2
Neat new TW there.



The environment in the short term looks favorable, so I don't see any reason why it wouldn't try to develop.

Promising...

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312. yoboi
Quoting 293. Tazmanian:


What about that upper level low that been spining out there for a few days now and every so closer too FL dos it have a ch of fourming in too any thing I find it odd no one been talking about it



Invest in 72 taz.....go back to the last blog.....
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New model 1007 near mexico !
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Quoting 287. TheDawnAwakening:

Our African wave now emerging or already has emerged off Africa has tremendous upper level divergence and low level convergence in development stages along its axis and associated 850mb vorticity center. The fact that this 850mb center is already well developed and strengthening quickly, this should be an invest by the 8pm TWO.


850mb vorticity off the coast:

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Quoting 298. MiamiHurricanes09:
Someone needs to tweet them some complicated question to see how they respond.


They likely wouldn't respond at all lol. That's how it was at NWS Norman. They got some interesting questions on Facebook. There was one involving the intimate dynamics of zonal gravity waves, and we talked about it for a good while out of curiosity, but they ended up never responding to it.
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Quoting 282. ncstorm:


Really?..calling yoboi???..

you and your counterparts dont have this same thinking when a "denier" raises doubts to your GW thinking..

Nea, you have been nothing but contradictory today..lows are usual but heatwaves are "unprecedented"..my my my..


You have to understand that there is no way we can have or accept any signs other than a warming planet. Any mention other than a warming planet is immediately discounted. Why? Because then science would be wrong and we all know that can not happen.
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Quoting 298. MiamiHurricanes09:
Someone needs to tweet them some complicated question to see how they respond.


Or if they chose to respond lol
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Quoting 296. Camille33:

I saw it first!!



Am not playing that game with you



I this came on ask ask why no one been talking about the upper level low that's moving closer too FL and ask if it has a ch of doing any thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Quoting 284. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL, come up with something original. Through mid-September? We are not talking El-Nino here, you must be a rookie, so I'll just sit back and watch you downcast this season like many of the trolls have done here and failed miserably while doing so.
You should face the facts that this is an unfavorable season for many storms due to the persistent TUTT and the dry air present in the MDR. There may be a few weak systems that develop maybe but no major storms. There is a good chance for some late season storms in the far southern areas of the tropics and some respectable storms that recurve out into the open Atlantic. You should be relieved that there should be no major threats this season. If you are wishcasting non-existing "potential" threats down the road then who is "trolling?"
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Quoting 280. scottsvb:


Didn't say I was critical.... I supported him cause he said he wasn't questioned. I stated that they probably didn't question him cause they had No facts to prove he was wrong.



Levi could further clarify this, but in the context of the research done by the undergraduate fellows, most often the methods would be extensively critiqued. Since they are relatively inexperienced to analyzing the data. Given that the methods that Levi utilized were not critiqued, and the encouragement received to publish his results, I would say that the meteorologists there were very impressed with what he accomplished.

That is not necessarily a common experience - given that he also took the initiative to investigate something he was not "assigned" to do.
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Quoting 297. scottsvb:


Well Mississippi you can always put me on ignore if you think I was cause I said that they shouldn't question him if they don't have the facts cause Levi said that they didn't. If that is being critical then you have personal issues.


Kk.
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Supercells are simply thunderstorms with rotating updrafts, or mesocyclones. Tropical cyclones as they hit land, hit friction slowing the surface boundary layer winds while winds around 5,000ft above ground level reach a certain unobstructed value producing wind shear both speed and directional shear. S higher the low level shear values the better chances for supercell development.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting 273. NCstu:
Weather experts:

What conditions lead to supercells in the context of tropical cyclones?


Where are you taking MET101 and have you read your textbook yet?
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The epac is well ahead of schedule this year more so than 2009 this to me says it is more favored than atlantic!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
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Quoting 286. Levi32:
Daniel Brown replying to someone on NOAA live Twitter chat saying dry air and wind shear might make the season a bust:

Someone needs to tweet them some complicated question to see how they respond.
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Quoting 290. MississippiWx:


I know you didn't say you were critical. I said you were because you...are.


Well Mississippi you can always put me on ignore if you think I was cause I said that they shouldn't question him if they don't have the facts cause Levi said that they didn't. If that is being critical then you have personal issues.
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Quoting 293. Tazmanian:


What about that upper level low that been spining out there for a few days now and every so closer too FL dos it have a ch of fourming in too any thing I find it odd no one been talking about it

I saw it first!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 277. Levi32:


They didn't. They questioned most of the group extensively, but I was not one of those people.


Levi, you should hurry up to publish your findings as it was recommended. Usually if there are some nuggets of science (now) openly on the road it won't take long that someone else would pick them up. Just saying ;)
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Quoting 286. Levi32:
Daniel Brown replying to someone on NOAA live Twitter chat saying dry air and wind shear might make the season a bust:

you dont believe this season will be a bust right? everything points to an acitve season but most models do develop much in the eastern atlantic come late august
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Quoting 249. nigel20:


What about that upper level low that been spining out there for a few days now and every so closer too FL dos it have a ch of fourming in too any thing I find it odd no one been talking about it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
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291. yoboi
Quoting 282. ncstorm:


Really?..calling yoboi???..

you and your counterparts dont have this same thinking when a "denier" raises doubts to your GW thinking..

Nea, you have been nothing but contradictory today..lows are usual but heatwaves are "unprecedented"..my my my..



You rang?????
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Quoting 280. scottsvb:


Didn't say I was critical.... I supported him cause he said he wasn't questioned. I stated that they probably didn't question him cause they had No facts to prove he was wrong.



I know you didn't say you were critical. I said you were because you...are.
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Quoting 177. stormpetrol:


Winds WNW/NW out of of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, center must have move further North, IMO This Caribbean disturbance is more organized than anticipated should be 20-30% at 2pm.


Good catch our AOI is a little further north while its wants to draw up vorticity from the monsoonal grye. So its still very much disorganize it will take awhile another 12-36 hours before it can tightening around a central low. If it consolidating around the Panama low then may it move much
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Quoting 282. ncstorm:


Really?..calling yoboi???..

you and your counterparts dont have this same thinking when a "denier" raises doubts to your GW thinking..

Nea, you have been nothing but contradictory today..lows are usual but heatwaves are "unprecedented"..my my my..

Denying isn't questioning. Questioning becomes denial after a valid answer to a question has been given.

An unprecedented heat wave is one in which all-time highs temperatures are set and/or the heat persists for a record amount of time or over a record large area.

Hope that helps.
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Quoting 278. interpreter:
As previously mentioned due to TUTT and the dry air across the entire MDR and adjacently waters there will be no signifcant developments through at least mid-September. The system in the mid-Atlantic will once again be encountering dry air in the western Atlantic and the TUTT that will cause the system to dissapate or stay very weak.


Actually wind shear is weakening in this region and I'll not be a major impediment to development any longer, at least until the MJO leaves the Western Hemisphere and there is no upward motion to offset the shear. Why do major hurricanes fight off shear well? It's due to their extensive latent heat release as their heat engines take off.

Our African wave now emerging or already has emerged off Africa has tremendous upper level divergence and low level convergence in development stages along its axis and associated 850mb vorticity center. The fact that this 850mb center is already well developed and strengthening quickly, this should be an invest by the 8pm TWO.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Daniel Brown replying to someone on NOAA live Twitter chat saying dry air and wind shear might make the season a bust:

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wow heavy rains go right up the east coastline.......
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Quoting 278. interpreter:
As previously mentioned due to TUTT and the dry air across the entire MDR and adjacently waters there will be no signifcant developments through at least mid-September. The system in the mid-Atlantic will once again be encountering dry air in the western Atlantic and the TUTT that will cause the system to dissapate or stay very weak.
LOL, come up with something original. Through mid-September? We are not talking El-Nino here, you must be a rookie, so I'll just sit back and watch you downcast this season like many of the trolls have done here and failed miserably while doing so.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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