Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 380. JLPR2:
Also of note, the TW in the CATL has developed some convergence and still has a weak and elongated spin.

92L (Caribbean feature) has more convergence right now than Dorian had in its entire lifespan.
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The 12z Euro still has a strung-out wave axis in the western gulf, not the northeastern gulf.

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Quoting 336. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You are basing your predictions on current conditions. We have 2 areas of interest that the NHC acknowledges could develop along with decent model support for both systems. Dry air in any given season becomes less of a factor as we near the peak of the hurricane season. The TUTT shifts around all the time and depending on the position can actual aid in developing a good anti-cyclonic flow for tropical systems. And no I am not wishcasting as you said, just not overreacting like you are because we haven't seen a major Category 5 hurricane plowing through landmasses causing death and destruction, so that we can call this season a memorable one. We are only 2 weeks into August and there is a huge difference in conditions in August now and after the 20th. You will see. I hope you stick around for when activity picks up because I know I will be here tracking the storms. By the way what is the point of being here if you are going to try to stir the pot with bloggers who come here to track storms? That's the reason most of us are here not to talk about nice weather, but interesting weather and learn from that.
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380. JLPR2
Also of note, the TW in the CATL has developed some convergence and still has a weak and elongated spin.

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boy the blog just lights up with comments..just no more than a hour ago when people started showing the ensembles, the season was declared a bust again..

You got to have patience people to track TC..models will change at a whip of a breeze..
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Quoting 367. Walshy:


I thought Levi said that was just 1 path out of 2 and wasn't 100% sure? He still thinks GOM hit still possible right?

Levi thinks it will go through the Yucitan and slow down and maybe to Mexico but there is a chance it could end up going north depending on where the surface low develops. He gave it a 66% Mx 33% NE GOM but like me, it all depends on where or if this does develop
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377. yoboi
Quoting 252. Neapolitan:
But that's not how science works. In actuality, all methods are to be questioned and explained. And the more novel or disruptive a hypothesis or theory is, the more questioning--and answering--there needs to be before it gets anywhere close to acceptance.



Well.... if that is how science works.....let's put your theory to work.....I have about 20 questions to ask you.......How would you like me to list the questions from hard to easy or easy to hard??????? TIA
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Quoting 351. Drakoen:
Looks like we will get a Caribbean invest as well
maybe invest 94L SOON
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 57065
Quoting 363. WxLogic:
If trend continues... I would expect a LLC to start taking shape S/SW of Jamaica in 24HR to 48HR.

850MB


Their initialization appears north of the Panama low. Possibly a comprise between the Panama low and the vorticity on the poleward end of the wave axis.
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Quoting 366. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Finally! We can breath a sigh of relief we have 2 areas to track. Where are all the downcasters now? Show yourselves. :P


I think this is a sign that the Atlantic is finally rising back from the dead. Since Dorian, of course. :)
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Quoting 353. JLPR2:
From nothing to two invests, nice 2013!

Very nice.

92L


93L:
The one out near the African coast looks more promising. Looks like too many ULL for the Carribean system to be able to do very much.
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Quoting 366. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Finally! We can breath a sigh of relief we have 2 areas to track. Where are all the downcasters now? Show yourselves. :P
He easy there! Nothing has develop yet.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
Finally an Invest
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Quoting 356. scottsvb:


Miss is just upset cause he goes against everything I say and he ends up being wrong. :)

Reedzone I have no problem with, he's come a long way over the years. He actually is a decent in forecasting things over the past year. I've known him for maybe 10?


Trying to recall a situation you've ever been right in here...

................

Nothing.
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369. xcool
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922013
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Two invests tagged! Awesome!
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 1649
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)



I thought Levi said that was just 1 path out of 2 and wasn't 100% sure? He still thinks GOM hit still possible right?
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Quoting 352. washingtonian115:
I'm putting my money on the African wave.
Finally! We can breath a sigh of relief we have 2 areas to track. Where are all the downcasters now? Show yourselves. :P
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8566
Quoting 293. Tazmanian:


What about that upper level low that been spining out there for a few days now and every so closer too FL dos it have a ch of fourming in too any thing I find it odd no one been talking about it
I hear you Taz. Since it is hurricane season, when I see anything spinning near Florda, I keep an eye out until it has dissipated or moved away.
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Quoting 357. Drakoen:


They had only just mentioned the EATL wave in their TWO and look how quickly it got tagged. Read in between the lines. :)
Damn, smart thinking LOL.
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If trend continues... I would expect a LLC to start taking shape S/SW of Jamaica in 24HR to 48HR.

850MB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
Quoting 343. Levi32:


It's an uncertain situation, which is the reason I gave westward 2/3 chance and northward 1/3 chance, but it will come down to where the low develops near the Yucatan. We haven't gotten there yet.

how about ukmet model it still favor my and levi track!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting 312. yoboi:



Invest in 72 taz.....go back to the last blog.....



IF you can read and under Stan what I this said then plzs don't re play back

Am not talking about the Caribbean wave am talking about the upper level low this S of bermuda that's been spining out there for a few days moving closer too FL and I asked if it has a ch of fourming in too any thing be come it looks like FL is in for a lot of rain one from are Caribbean wave and the other from the upper level low I would if that upper level low has a ch of be coming a STS it looks sub tropical to me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Both models show a broad ridge across a large chunk of the Continental United States. The oranges and reds indicate higher than average 500mb heights. Based on the data from these models, high temperatures could potentially reach the upper 80's at some point next week. If this happens, there would also be elevated levels of humidity. The 12z Euro ensembles are not out yet, but the 00z run showed above average highs into southern Canada and the latest 12z GFS ensembles show a similar setup.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 57065
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie Commends Portlight for Sandy Relief Work


Toni Marie Angelini, Office of the Governor, presents Paul Timmons (Board Chair) and Sue Pniewski (New Jersey Coordinator) with a flag that was flown at the World Trade Center. Accompanying the flag was a letter of commendation recognizing Portlight for the work they are doing for people with disabilities.

If you're good enough to give:
Portlight.org
Portlight WU blog
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting 348. MiamiHurricanes09:
They tagged both. ;)


They had only just mentioned the EATL wave in their TWO and look how quickly it got tagged. Read in between the lines. :)
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Quoting 334. MississippiWx:


I knew I wasn't the only one who noticed. Lol.


Miss is just upset cause he goes against everything I say and he ends up being wrong. :)

Reedzone I have no problem with, he's come a long way over the years. He actually is a decent in forecasting things over the past year. I've known him for maybe 10?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
Quoting 343. Levi32:


It's an uncertain situation, which is the reason I gave westward 2/3 chance and northward 1/3 chance, but it will come down to where the low develops near the Yucatan. We haven't gotten there yet.


Just messen with you buddy!
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353. JLPR2
From nothing to two invests, nice 2013!

Very nice.

92L


93L:
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I'm putting my money on the African wave.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17147
Looks like we will get a Caribbean invest as well
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Invest 92L and 93L just went live...
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Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)



8pm update for the NHC will be changing..
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Quoting 344. Drakoen:


As I had said earlier, easier for them to tag the EATL wave as an invest due its present organization compared to the Caribbean system.
They tagged both. ;)
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Quoting 335. Neapolitan:
Here you go. Hapy now? ;-)

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14N 70W? Interesting!
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Quoting 338. Camille33:

where??


The lat and long are provided for both.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
I see we have invests 92L and 93L.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 335. Neapolitan:
Here you go. Hapy now? ;-)

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As I had said earlier, easier for them to tag the EATL wave as an invest due its present organization compared to the Caribbean system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)



It's an uncertain situation, which is the reason I gave westward 2/3 chance and northward 1/3 chance, but it will come down to where the low develops near the Yucatan. We haven't gotten there yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ta Daa...

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AL, 92, 2013081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 813W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8566
We now have 92L and 93L.
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Quoting 318. Camille33:

I would ask them why is Epac well above normal to date and why do they not see that? It is ahead of 2004 and 2009!


The EPAC is exactly 2 days ahead of schedule in terms of named storms, and that's not much. The ACE so far in the EPAC is 39. The normal year-to-date is 56, so they are behind in hurricanes.
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Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)



You know how it can take a while for those models to catch up.
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Quoting 335. Neapolitan:
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932013
AL, 93, 2013081318, , BEST, 0, 140N, 170W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

where??
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting 333. hurricanes2018:
not good at all!!

Both models show a broad ridge across a large chunk of the Continental United States. The oranges and reds indicate higher than average 500mb heights. Based on the data from these models, high temperatures could potentially reach the upper 80's at some point next week. If this happens, there would also be elevated levels of humidity. The 12z Euro ensembles are not out yet, but the 00z run showed above average highs into southern Canada and the latest 12z GFS ensembles show a similar setup.


I guess I am wrong
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1521
Quoting 305. interpreter:
You should face the facts that this is an unfavorable season for many storms due to the persistent TUTT and the dry air present in the MDR. There may be a few weak systems that develop maybe but no major storms. There is a good chance for some late season storms in the far southern areas of the tropics and some respectable storms that recurve out into the open Atlantic. You should be relieved that there should be no major threats this season. If you are wishcasting non-existing "potential" threats down the road then who is "trolling?"
You are basing your predictions on current conditions. We have 2 areas of interest that the NHC acknowledges could develop along with decent model support for both systems. Dry air in any given season becomes less of a factor as we near the peak of the hurricane season. The TUTT shifts around all the time and depending on the position can actual aid in developing a good anti-cyclonic flow for tropical systems. And no I am not wishcasting as you said, just not overreacting like you are because we haven't seen a major Category 5 hurricane plowing through landmasses causing death and destruction, so that we can call this season a memorable one. We are only 2 weeks into August and there is a huge difference in conditions in August now and after the 20th. You will see. I hope you stick around for when activity picks up because I know I will be here tracking the storms. By the way what is the point of being here if you are going to try to stir the pot with bloggers who come here to track storms? That's the reason most of us are here not to talk about nice weather, but interesting weather and learn from that.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8566
Here you go: a twofer. Happy now? ;-)

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....and:

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Quoting 324. tropicfreak:


MissWx is right. Come on now, you have to admit that you can be very critical of those who are more knowledgeable about weather than you are. *Cough* Reedzone *cough*


I knew I wasn't the only one who noticed. Lol.
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Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)

not good at all!!

Both models show a broad ridge across a large chunk of the Continental United States. The oranges and reds indicate higher than average 500mb heights. Based on the data from these models, high temperatures could potentially reach the upper 80's at some point next week. If this happens, there would also be elevated levels of humidity. The 12z Euro ensembles are not out yet, but the 00z run showed above average highs into southern Canada and the latest 12z GFS ensembles show a similar setup.



say goodbye to the cool weather!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 57065

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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