Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

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Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 416. Levi32:


You can also find current invests within minutes of designation here. Sometimes the Navy site is slow :)
Levi what do you think the african wave will do?
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Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Euro holds onto east Atlantic system until 120hrs. But we'll see. At least they are showing it. lol

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Quoting 421. Patrap:


That ULL east of Florida is concerning this time of the year. Can it work its way down to the surface?
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I fear red light cameras. I fear arguments on this website..which inevitably happen when there is nothing to track. I fear Tom Brady so I'm kinda happy he has no one to throw to this year.......
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Quoting 391. interpreter:

You should know that the models are very unreliable on systems that have not even become cyclones as of yet and they are even more unreliable as you go out further into the future. Neither of those systems you mentioned do not appear to have much of a chance of developing into significant tropical systems and will remain weak.
In regards to 92L I have been saying that I don't expect more than a moderate tropical storm landfalling on the Northeastern Gulf Coast and I have also been saying for awhile to watch for development in the Western Caribbean. I guess you missed where I kept repeating that the other day. Now 93L I haven't had a chance to take a look at both current conditions and the model runs, since the focus should be closer to home where the threat for something to develop and make landfall is just days away. 93L is at least 7-10 days away from any landmasses if it gets there.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6689
Quoting 416. Levi32:


You can also find current invests within minutes of designation here. Sometimes the Navy site is slow :)
LOLLL, shameless plug I see. ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
It's now or never 92L if you ant to make it pass 40mph..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15710
Quoting 395. DavidHOUTX:


I think the models will shift westward as the days past. As the trough stalls out, HP should build in behind it. I don't see a weak TS penetrating a HP. If it is a hurricane, that may be different.

I would agree with the Euro solution, but boy has it been bad this year. Maybe this is the time the Euro finally gets its act together. At the moment it is anyone's guess. If I had it my way I would take a moderate TS into the central Texas coastline and give all of SE Texas and Central Texas plenty of rain.


I think so, too. There was such dogged agreement on something landfalling in TX on the 21 that I think we have our man now. Or woman. If our blob is eventually Erin she could theoretically pull the same prairiecane the other Erin did a few years ago...
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
I don't know how much credibility to put into this, but an observation from DeLand, FL is reporting 100F and a dewpoint of 73F. That would make the heat index 111F. I will gladly dispute that 100F temperature, as nowhere close by is even close to that temperature. Sanford, some 25 miles away is 95, Daytona Beach is 20 miles away 92 degrees. Everyone else in central Florida ranges from 86-92 degrees.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
Quoting 419. TheDawnAwakening:


What are you basing your opinions off then? Since models are the tools we use as guidance and not gospel, you sift out the garbage they spew and try to decide the best you can on what develops and what doesn't develop. You base your hostile conditions on the same model runs that show no storms, but you knock down the same model that shows an area o disturbed weather developing into a tropical cyclone. Based on your thinking you see the current tutt axis and believe therefore it will remain the same throughout the rest of the season, it's not bright forecasting. Tell me if I have you pegged differently than?



interpreter = nostorminflorida/wrongasusual/numerous other handles. He's a troll basically.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
92L:



93L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting 416. Levi32:


You can also find current invests within minutes of designation here. Sometimes the Navy site is slow :)


thanks Levi. I have these bookmarked now. :)
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Quoting 391. interpreter:

You should know that the models are very unreliable on systems that have not even become cyclones as of yet and they are even more unreliable as you go out further into the future. Neither of those systems you mentioned do not appear to have much of a chance of developing into significant tropical systems and will remain weak.


What are you basing your opinions off then? Since models are the tools we use as guidance and not gospel, you sift out the garbage they spew and try to decide the best you can on what develops and what doesn't develop. You base your hostile conditions on the same model runs that show no storms, but you knock down the same model that shows an area o disturbed weather developing into a tropical cyclone. Based on your thinking you see the current tutt axis and believe therefore it will remain the same throughout the rest of the season, it's not bright forecasting. Tell me if I have you pegged differently than?
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Quoting 408. Patrap:
Most fear what they cant understand, or refuse too.



I don't understand Wind Azimuth Profiles, but they don't scare me. And I refuse to let them.
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417. Kyon5

Quoting 407. CybrTeddy:
Very curious to see the intensity forecasts for 93L.
I'm wondering about the possible track.
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Quoting 403. MiamiHurricanes09:
It's up.

But the invest designations came from here.


You can also find current invests within minutes of designation here. Sometimes the Navy site is slow :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
92L and 93L both up on the Navy FNMOC site

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Regarding 92L, it's like I said yesterday - if a LLC can become established before a Yucatan landfall we may very well see a stronger system than anticipated. If not, then oh well.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Navy site now has the invests. Here's 92L:

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Quoting 409. wunderweatherman123:
Drak you expect the GFS to eventually start showing CV storms


I can't predict what the GFS will predict.
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Quoting 403. MiamiHurricanes09:
It's up.

But the invest designations came from here.


thanks Miami :)
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410. yoboi
Quoting 388. Neapolitan:
Put them in any order you wish. But since I'm a busy guy, I want to warn you that I'll not be wasting any of my time answering questions I and/or others have answered for you numerous times already. IOW, if you have something new, fire away.


can I wu mail them to ya that way don't clutter up the blog??????
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Quoting 357. Drakoen:


They had only just mentioned the EATL wave in their TWO and look how quickly it got tagged. Read in between the lines. :)
Drak you expect the GFS to eventually start showing CV storms
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Most fear what they cant understand, or refuse too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Very curious to see the intensity forecasts for 93L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting 366. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Finally! We can breath a sigh of relief we have 2 areas to track. Where are all the downcasters now? Show yourselves. :P

Downcaster here standing up. They are only invest. My 2 cents also are on the african wave. Thank God we have something to track I was starting to see signs of AGW starting to rear it's ugly face on here.
I will take invest discussion anytime over AGW discussion.
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Quoting 401. Drakoen:


I will have to keep a note not to trust his posts on models anymore. Can't afford to ruin my credibility LOL.


Well the good thing is to at least post a picture of what you are talking about. That way someone can correct you if there is an error
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Quoting 400. weathermanwannabe:
I am split as between which of the two invests might make TD status first; both are well out beyond 48 hours at the moment.

Speaking of split-windows, here is the latest SAL chart; Sal is not a significant issue for the African invest in the short-term:

Link

Also, here is a better look from the African EuroMet site:

Link


What about shear?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 396. hurricanehanna:
I'm missing something....where are the invests tagged ? Nothing on the Navy site yet.
It's up.

But the invest designations came from here.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
So....is this a "pre-blob" watch or a "blob" watch? lol
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Quoting 397. TylerStanfield:

*Facepalm*
See post 382


I will have to keep a note not to trust his posts on models anymore. Can't afford to ruin my credibility LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
I am split as between which of the two invests might make TD status first; both are well out beyond 48 hours at the moment.

Speaking of split-windows, here is the latest SAL chart; Sal is not a significant issue for the African invest in the short-term:

Link

Also, here is a better look from the African EuroMet site:

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting 375. Drakoen:


Their initialization appears north of the Panama low. Possibly a comprise between the Panama low and the vorticity on the poleward end of the wave axis.


Definitely... I can't think of any other reason as well... yet. LOL
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Quoting 378. scottsvb:

Levi thinks it will go through the Yucitan and slow down and maybe to Mexico but there is a chance it could end up going north depending on where the surface low develops. He gave it a 66% Mx 33% NE GOM but like me, it all depends on where or if this does develop


As mention by Dr JM also, whether it tracks northwards will be dependent on how strong of a potential storm develops. So, if there is no development - then a predominantly westward track as the trough will have little influence upon the direction it takes. in addition to where the low initially develops (how far south).

Levi is on the weak system side, I imagine.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:
Euro has now come in line with the rest of the global models in showing either a FL Panhandle or FL Big Bend landfall of whatever this Caribbean disturbance becomes. The only model going to TX is the Levi model;)


*Facepalm*
See post 382
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I'm missing something....where are the invests tagged ? Nothing on the Navy site yet.
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Quoting 326. redwagon:


So what do you think with this SWCARIB wave.. are you going with the models or your 'lyin' eyes?

I think I'm going with my lyin' eyes.


I think the models will shift westward as the days past. As the trough stalls out, HP should build in behind it. I don't see a weak TS penetrating a HP. If it is a hurricane, that may be different.

I would agree with the Euro solution, but boy has it been bad this year. Maybe this is the time the Euro finally gets its act together. At the moment it is anyone's guess. If I had it my way I would take a moderate TS into the central Texas coastline and give all of SE Texas and Central Texas plenty of rain.
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The wave near Africa would probably develop first into Erin might not be strong but is something to watch,I am happy we have now two areas to watch.
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Quoting 333. hurricanes2018:
not good at all!!

Both models show a broad ridge across a large chunk of the Continental United States. The oranges and reds indicate higher than average 500mb heights. Based on the data from these models, high temperatures could potentially reach the upper 80's at some point next week. If this happens, there would also be elevated levels of humidity. The 12z Euro ensembles are not out yet, but the 00z run showed above average highs into southern Canada and the latest 12z GFS ensembles show a similar setup.



say goodbye to the cool weather!


I believe some 90s will be felt across the Northeastern US states as the heights build across the Noreastern US and Atlantic Canada. The high goes towards the b point or becomes the Bermuda High, instead of the Azores High. Someone mentioned that the A/B high is simply two cells of high pressure, that notation is wrong, it's the same sub tropical high pressure system, not several highs. -NAOs are notorious for the Azores high location in which troughing makes it's way into Iceland, however during positive NAOs troughing reaches over into Greenland and the high advects into Bermuda position as eastern US ridging pairs up with the Bermuda Azores high. This pattern could bring a potentially dangerous hurricane into the fixity of 35n: 75wwith our latest African tropical wave.
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Quoting 357. Drakoen:


They had only just mentioned the EATL wave in their TWO and look how quickly it got tagged. Read in between the lines. :)


How fast you think the SWCARIB wave is clocking? It doesn't seem to be letting grass grow under its feet....
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
Quoting 336. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You are basing your predictions on current conditions. We have 2 areas of interest that the NHC acknowledges could develop along with decent model support for both systems. Dry air in any given season becomes less of a factor as we near the peak of the hurricane season. The TUTT shifts around all the time and depending on the position can actual aid in developing a good anti-cyclonic flow for tropical systems. And no I am not wishcasting as you said, just not overreacting like you are because we haven't seen a major Category 5 hurricane plowing through landmasses causing death and destruction, so that we can call this season a memorable one. We are only 2 weeks into August and there is a huge difference in conditions in August now and after the 20th. You will see. I hope you stick around for when activity picks up because I know I will be here tracking the storms. By the way what is the point of being here if you are going to try to stir the pot with bloggers who come here to track storms? That's the reason most of us are here not to talk about nice weather, but interesting weather and learn from that.

You should know that the models are very unreliable on systems that have not even become cyclones as of yet and they are even more unreliable as you go out further into the future. Neither of those systems you mentioned do not appear to have much of a chance of developing into significant tropical systems and will remain weak.
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Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:


14N 70W? Interesting!
Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:


14N 70W? Interesting!


That would be 14N 17W
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Quoting 382. Levi32:
The 12z Euro still has a strung-out wave axis in the western gulf, not the northeastern gulf.



Yep. Good eye. I think it's far from a guarantee that this curves north into the FL Panhandle.
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Quoting 377. yoboi:



Well.... if that is how science works.....let's put your theory to work.....I have about 20 questions to ask you.......How would you like me to list the questions from hard to easy or easy to hard??????? TIA
Put them in any order you wish. But since I'm a busy guy, I want to warn you that I'll not be wasting any of my time answering questions I and/or others have answered for you numerous times already, or for which you could answer yourself with three minutes of Googling. IOW, if you have something new, fire away.
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Quoting 382. Levi32:
The 12z Euro still has a strung-out wave axis in the western gulf, not the northeastern gulf.



That is really not representative of an overall track though. Low pressure could consolidate anywhere from Mexico to Galveston according to that but I get what you are driving at
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Quoting 382. Levi32:
The 12z Euro still has a strung-out wave axis in the western gulf, not the northeastern gulf.



That's what I was seeing too. Was a little confused for a minute. But that's not unusual. :)
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Quoting 380. JLPR2:
Also of note, the TW in the CATL has developed some convergence and still has a weak and elongated spin.

GFS likes the one behind a little better but still doesn't do much.
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Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:


14N 70W? Interesting!

17W
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Quoting 380. JLPR2:
Also of note, the TW in the CATL has developed some convergence and still has a weak and elongated spin.

92L (Caribbean feature) has more convergence right now than Dorian had in its entire lifespan.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.