Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1688. TheTJE:


Thank you very much for giving my post your time tonight.


Did it help you any? :P

Any follow up questions?

If you're serious about learning, I can help you.
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1688. TheTJE
Quoting 1675. KoritheMan:


I posted this chart the other day. Not sure if you saw it:



Using 1981-2010 as a climatological baseline (climatology is 30 years), the mean 500 mb relative humidity values during those years looked like that between July 1 and September 30; not too dissimilar to the pattern we're experiencing in 2013.

As for wind shear, it's been above average over the Caribbean because of the mid-oceanic trough (TUTT), but that's a semipermanent feature in that area much like the Bermuda-Azores ridge is a semipermanent feature in the eastern Atlantic. The GFS model, which usually does well with shear forecasts, shows virtually no shear in the Caribbean in two weeks time. While that should be taken with a grain of salt, it's also been progressively weakening it in the short and medium range, which we can draw something meaningful from (although even then, infinite variables will still be present and potentially throw the forecasts off; that's why it's always vital to keep watching, even when we think we have it pinned down).

Also, 2008, a year with a Category 4 Caribbean cruiser (Gustav), a Leeward Islands major hurricane (Omar), and a quick major hurricane spinup near the Cayman Islands (Paloma), there was considerable vertical shear during July over the Caribbean, much like we saw this year.

As for the cold, August 2004 was also a very cold month for the United States from a temperature anomaly standpoint, yet all hell broke loose that month, especially in the United States. If I recall correctly, August and September 2008 were also cooler than average, and the US saw five tropical cyclone strikes during that period, including two hurricanes, both of which were near major hurricane strength. It really depends on the placement of the cold air, whether we get persistent east coast troughing or not; cold does not always necessitate recurvature, nor does it always herald vertical shear.

That help?


Thank you very much for giving my post your time tonight.
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Quoting 1681. LAbonbon:


holy cannoli. just realized the time. Waay past time to hit the hay. good night boys (and girls?)


LOL Goodnight C ya later
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Quoting 1684. KoritheMan:


Is 90C what was previously tagged 93E in the east Pacific?


Yes.

It was redesignated just before it crossed the 140W into the CPHC area of responsibility.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1675. KoritheMan:


I posted this chart the other day. Not sure if you saw it:



Using 1981-2010 as a climatological baseline (climatology is 30 years), the mean 500 mb relative humidity values during those years looked like that between July 1 and September 30; not too dissimilar to the pattern we're experiencing in 2013.

As for wind shear, it's been above average over the Caribbean because of the mid-oceanic trough (TUTT), but that's a semipermanent feature in that area much like the Bermuda-Azores ridge is a semipermanent feature in the eastern Atlantic. The GFS model, which usually does well with shear forecasts, shows virtually no shear in the Caribbean in two weeks time. While that should be taken with a grain of salt, it's also been progressively weakening it in the short and medium range, which we can draw something meaningful from (although even then, infinite variables will still be present and potentially throw the forecasts off; that's why it's always vital to keep watching, even when we think we have it pinned down).

Also, 2008, a year with a Category 4 Caribbean cruiser (Gustav), a Leeward Islands major hurricane (Omar), and a quick major hurricane spinup near the Cayman Islands (Paloma), there was considerable vertical shear during July over the Caribbean, much like we saw this year.

As for the cold, August 2004 was also a very cold month for the United States from a temperature anomaly standpoint, yet all hell broke loose that month, especially in the United States. If I recall correctly, August and September 2008 were also cooler than average, and the US saw five tropical cyclone strikes during that period, including two hurricanes, both of which were near major hurricane strength. It really depends on the placement of the cold air, whether we get persistent east coast troughing or not; cold does not always necessitate recurvature, nor does it always herald vertical shear.

That help?


Thank you class
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Quoting 1678. Civicane49:
The main impediment for development I see for 92E is the mid-level dry air; in fact, 0z SHIPS sees the current relative humidity values below 60% and shows a gradual decrease in the coming days. If 92E wants to become a tropical depression, it has about 36 hours left of doing so as it will enter into a high shear environment and cold waters after that time. 40% chance of development is a good call.

To the west, 90C continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although sea surface temperatures will remain warm in the system's projected path, moderate westerly shear will keep it in check for the next several days. Imminent development is unlikely to occur.



Is 90C what was previously tagged 93E in the east Pacific?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1683. SRQfl
Quoting 1671. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looks like most models have a Low/Storm/Disorganized Mess in the Northeast Gulf in 4-5 days. What is the ECMWF seeing that most all other models are missing? Simply trof strength or forecast storm position?


I believe the ECMWF initializes the storm further south than the other models, thus not feeling the trough. We shall see in the next couple of days where(and if) this thing develops, then we will have a better idea.
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Quoting 1670. sar2401:

Never thought of the idea Walmart employees would benefit from a milk and bread panic but I guess it makes sense. OTOH, have you ever worked for Walmart during a real bread and milk panic? From what I've seen, you'll earn your money.


Yep. Isaac. It was horrendous.

Though, I'm sure that's nothing compared to what my dad, who used to work at the store as an assistant manager had to deal with. I sat at home during Katrina, a typical teenage kid with no job; I sat at home during Rita; I sat at home during Gustav. I can't even begin to fathom the chaos he was forced to endure during such active landfall periods in 2005 and 2008, especially as an assistant manager.

Kinda scary how bad things can get, particularly if the power explodes and you have to throw away all store merchandise.
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Quoting 1679. HurricaneHunterJoe:
you's guys is up late...it's 12:45am here and i know most are way east of me


holy cannoli. just realized the time. Waay past time to hit the hay. good night boys (and girls?)
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Quoting 1677. LAbonbon:


LOL. Let me guess, I'm going with Joseph in lieu of Josephine...


LOL touche
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you's guys is up late...it's 12:45am here and i know most are way east of me
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(Edited)

The main impediment for development I see for 92E is the mid-level dry air; in fact, 0z SHIPS sees the current relative humidity values below 60% and shows a gradual decrease in the coming days. If 92E wants to become a tropical depression, it has about 36 hours left of doing so before entering into a high shear environment and cold waters. 40% chance of development is a good call.

To the west, 90C (formerly 93E) continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although sea surface temperatures will remain warm in the system's projected path, moderate westerly shear will keep it in check for the next several days. Imminent development is unlikely to occur.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1674. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Sorry, I thought Bon Bon's were choclate covered ice cream....my bad.


LOL. Let me guess, I'm going with Joseph in lieu of Josephine...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1672. LAbonbon:


Really? I did not know that. I will contact my ins co. I talked to my neighbor after Isaac, and got the 'that tree ain't goin' nowhere' response. I'm no arborist, but I saw plenty of houses cut in half after K, enough to make me nervous about it.

I guess Kori could teach charm class, and apparently dancing as well, but I do believe Caleb is a diamond-in-the-rough diplomat. (I mean, he responds politely to posts that have 20+ exclamation points. Now that is patience.)

And no worries about the error. I'm sure I've got a lot of people wrong here as well.


His cutoff point is 21 ! points
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Quoting 1669. TheTJE:
http://www.chron.com/business/real-estate/article /R ush-to-name-storms-may-be-costing-you-money-181432 8.php

How about this? A reputable article suggesting that sometimes NHC is a tad quick on the draw - naming storms that never would have got it years ago. Now I know arguments are made that it is because technology is better, but I'm skeptical about that. You can find this same discussion played out on several blogs - I'm not the only one.

As far as my argument that the season will be a bust. I'm new at this, but I'm noticing a lot of SAR. Is that altogether normal? A lot of wind shear, and frankly SSTs near me just aren't what they usually are. I also saw an article the other day about how the rest of this summer is predicted to be cooler than average - doesn't that mean even more decrease in SSTS, even more wind shear, and just generally unfavorable weather for storms? I'm asking so someone will educate me....

As to my lack of commenting - until now I just didn't have anything to say :)


I posted this chart the other day. Not sure if you saw it:



Using 1981-2010 as a climatological baseline (climatology is 30 years), the mean 500 mb relative humidity values during those years looked like that between July 1 and September 30; not too dissimilar to the pattern we're experiencing in 2013.

As for wind shear, it's been above average over the Caribbean because of the mid-oceanic trough (TUTT), but that's a semipermanent feature in that area much like the Bermuda-Azores ridge is a semipermanent feature in the eastern Atlantic. The GFS model, which usually does well with shear forecasts, shows virtually no shear in the Caribbean in two weeks time. While that should be taken with a grain of salt, it's also been progressively weakening it in the short and medium range, which we can draw something meaningful from (although even then, infinite variables will still be present and potentially throw the forecasts off; that's why it's always vital to keep watching, even when we think we have it pinned down).

Also, 2008, a year with a Category 4 Caribbean cruiser (Gustav), a Leeward Islands major hurricane (Omar), and a quick major hurricane spinup near the Cayman Islands (Paloma), there was considerable vertical shear during July over the Caribbean, much like we saw this year.

As for the cold, August 2004 was also a very cold month for the United States from a temperature anomaly standpoint, yet all hell broke loose that month, especially in the United States. If I recall correctly, August and September 2008 were also cooler than average, and the US saw five tropical cyclone strikes during that period, including two hurricanes, both of which were near major hurricane strength. It really depends on the placement of the cold air, whether we get persistent east coast troughing or not; cold does not always necessitate recurvature, nor does it always herald vertical shear.

That help?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry, I thought Bon Bon's were chocolate covered ice cream....my bad.
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Quoting 1670. sar2401:

Never thought of the idea Walmart employees would benefit from a milk and bread panic but I guess it makes sense. OTOH, have you ever worked for Walmart during a real bread and milk panic? From what I've seen, you'll earn your money.


Seems it would be a nightmare.
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Quoting 1665. sar2401:

Oh, sorry about that, Bonnie. I really wish that a user name would list an "M" or "F" after it so I wouldn't make these kind of mistakes. Anyway, I wondered if you were a female, and maybe a mom, by the way you responded to the other poster. Very few of us male posters have the ability or inclination to be kind to irritating people. Kori teaches blog charm classes here. :-)

I read your other post about your neighbor's tree. Have you had your insurance agent write him a letter? If you know that tree is a risk to your property and do nothing, a court battle could get ugly. If you haven't done so, contacting your insurance agent and getting his (or her) advice would be a good idea.


Really? I did not know that. I will contact my ins co. I talked to my neighbor after Isaac, and got the 'that tree ain't goin' nowhere' response. I'm no arborist, but I saw plenty of houses cut in half after K, enough to make me nervous about it.

I guess Kori could teach charm class, and apparently dancing as well, but I do believe Caleb is a diamond-in-the-rough diplomat. (I mean, he responds politely to posts that have 20+ exclamation points. Now that is patience.)

And no worries about the error. I'm sure I've got a lot of people wrong here as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like most models have a Low/Storm/Disorganized Mess in the Northeast Gulf in 4-5 days. What is the ECMWF seeing that most all other models are missing? Simply trof strength or forecast storm position?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1670. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I actually have another reason aside from my storm fanaticism for wanting this to come to my state. Reason being? The bonus Walmart's going to be doling out next month will be exponentially greater in the event we get a storm in time.

That sounds perfect. :)

Never thought of the idea Walmart employees would benefit from a milk and bread panic but I guess it makes sense. OTOH, have you ever worked for Walmart during a real bread and milk panic? From what I've seen, you'll earn your money.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1669. TheTJE
http://www.chron.com/business/real-estate/article/R ush-to-name-storms-may-be-costing-you-money-181432 8.php

How about this? A reputable article suggesting that sometimes NHC is a tad quick on the draw - naming storms that never would have got it years ago. Now I know arguments are made that it is because technology is better, but I'm skeptical about that. You can find this same discussion played out on several blogs - I'm not the only one.

As far as my argument that the season will be a bust. I'm new at this, but I'm noticing a lot of SAR. Is that altogether normal? A lot of wind shear, and frankly SSTs near me just aren't what they usually are. I also saw an article the other day about how the rest of this summer is predicted to be cooler than average - doesn't that mean even more decrease in SSTS, even more wind shear, and just generally unfavorable weather for storms? I'm asking so someone will educate me....

As to my lack of commenting - until now I just didn't have anything to say :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1668. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
TYPHOON UTOR (T1311)
15:00 PM JST August 13 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Named Cyclone In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Utor (955 hPa) located at 19.0N 114.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
200 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 20.8N 112.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 22.5N 110.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland southern China
72 HRS: 23.3N 108.9E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
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1667. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
FIM-9 continues to show it.


Hmm...jogs it east some but still keeps it in the Gulf for 12 hours. This is what I fear will happen. It will hang around on the stalled frontal boundary, sucking up energy from the loop current
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1666. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Fashion? LOL. That's a new one. Yeah, it's a nickname. I do wonder though what Sar was thinking of a man who may have been calling himself Bon Bon?

Nice meeting you as well, Caleb.

LOL. I've long ago given up trying to figure out all the nicknames people in Louisiana have. It's bad enough here in Alabama. ;-)
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1665. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Sar - thank you for your kind words as well. Point of clarification - LAbonbon is a 'she'. My given name is Bonnie :)

Oh, sorry about that, Bonnie. I really wish that a user name would list an "M" or "F" after it so I wouldn't make these kind of mistakes. Anyway, I wondered if you were a female, and maybe a mom, by the way you responded to the other poster. Very few of us male posters have the ability or inclination to be kind to irritating people. Kori teaches blog charm classes here. :-)

I read your other post about your neighbor's tree. Have you had your insurance agent write him a letter? If you know that tree is a risk to your property and do nothing, a court battle could get ugly. If you haven't done so, contacting your insurance agent and getting his (or her) advice would be a good idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FIM-9 continues to show it.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
Quoting 1660. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At first I thought your handle represented some kind of line of fashion. I was thinking European. Then as I saw you post I knew you had to be from Louisiana, but I didn't know bonbon was short for Bonnie. Nice meeting you on here. As you can probably tell my name is Caleb. :)


Fashion? LOL. That's a new one. Yeah, it's a nickname. I do wonder though what Sar was thinking of a man who may have been calling himself Bon Bon?

Nice meeting you as well, Caleb.
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1662. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually, it is pretty rare to go through all of August without a single named storm. Since records began in 1851, there have only been two years where that feat has been recognized: 1961 and 1997.

I know what you were saying, but I just wanted to point that part out.

Yeah, shoot, I meant to say CV storms, not just any storm. Still for any kind of storm one or two isn't abnormal for August. If you remove the last week of August, it's actually typical. We've had some active seasons since 1995, so we've had more August storm than are typical but, even with active season, there are always lulls or, sometimes worse. a Dorian or two to drive you insane and still do nothing. :-)

I don't know why, after being at this all these years, I should not expect some of this restlessness, but maybe it's a different blog demographic from when I first joined. There were way fewer of us, and almost all of us were weather geeks, and no one had to explain time pattern distributions of hurricanes during a season. I think it started after Katrina, when a lot more people came here from advance warning of if their town was going to get flattened. When they hear "Active Season Forecast", they expect an active season, like where are all these hurricanes? Throw in AGW issues, prophets of doom, way more trolls because this is a such a popular blog, and I guess I really shouldn't be surprised.
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Quoting 1659. KoritheMan:


Party at your house if we get a Gustav redux this year? ;)


Sure. But keep in mind, I spend the entire storm fretting over my neighbor's tree which literally leans over my house. Truly, the darn thing grows at an angle. I'm convinced it's fated to meet my roof...
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Quoting 1653. LAbonbon:


Sar - thank you for your kind words as well. Point of clarification - LAbonbon is a 'she'. My given name is Bonnie :)
At first I thought your handle represented some kind of line of fashion. I was thinking European. Then as I saw you post I knew you had to be from Louisiana, but I didn't know bonbon was short for Bonnie. Nice meeting you on here. As you can probably tell my name is Caleb. :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
Quoting 1658. LAbonbon:


I don't mind. SE corner of EBRP. We're practically neighbors.


Party at your house if we get a Gustav redux this year? ;)
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Quoting 1656. KoritheMan:


lol

Which part of Louisiana do you live in, if you don't mind my asking?


I don't mind. SE corner of EBRP. We're practically neighbors.
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CP, 90, 2013081306, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1438W, 25, 1008, DB
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1655. LAbonbon:


I believe those awesome shields are Brian's. When I saw the latest Fim 7, I wanted to post a Snoopy dance. But, for 2 reasons I didn't. Didn't want to get the Panhandle folks upset, and I haven't progressed yet to posting anything but text :/


lol

Which part of Louisiana do you live in, if you don't mind my asking?
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Quoting 1651. KoritheMan:


Nope; it's keeping me from getting my storm with your darned deflector shields!

:)


I believe those awesome shields are Brian's. When I saw the latest Fim 7, I wanted to post a Snoopy dance. But, for 2 reasons I didn't. Didn't want to get the Panhandle folks upset, and I haven't progressed yet to posting anything but text :/
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Quoting 1652. sar2401:

Although it does seem to slowing it down a bit compared to last night. Assuming the wave can get it's act together, get into the Gulf, and have at least a trough of low pressure in the Gulf to work with, a 45 mph hybrid low headed toward my house doesn't seem unreasonable. Things have to be just right to make this happen,or it's going to get in the BOC and make a hard left into Mexico. It will be an interesting one to watch. Just in case, I think I'll stop by Walmart and fill in a few holes in my supplies. If this does develop, the media is going to have a field day, and the bread and milk panic is only a few days off. :-)


I actually have another reason aside from my storm fanaticism for wanting this to come to my state. Reason being? The bonus Walmart's going to be doling out next month will be exponentially greater in the event we get a storm in time.

That sounds perfect. :)
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Quoting 1649. sar2401:



Sar - thank you for your kind words as well. Point of clarification - LAbonbon is a 'she'. My given name is Bonnie :)
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1652. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's my boy it's still there.

FIM-7:


Although it does seem to slowing it down a bit compared to last night. Assuming the wave can get it's act together, get into the Gulf, and have at least a trough of low pressure in the Gulf to work with, a 45 mph hybrid low headed toward my house doesn't seem unreasonable. Things have to be just right to make this happen,or it's going to get in the BOC and make a hard left into Mexico. It will be an interesting one to watch. Just in case, I think I'll stop by Walmart and fill in a few holes in my supplies. If this does develop, the media is going to have a field day, and the bread and milk panic is only a few days off. :-)
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Quoting 1650. LAbonbon:


Why, Trib, thank you for your kind words. I do try to bring something to the blog, and it certainly isn't my meteorological expertise...


Nope; it's keeping me from getting my storm with your darned deflector shields!

:)
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Quoting 1645. Tribucanes:


Why, Trib, thank you for your kind words. I do try to bring something to the blog, and it certainly isn't my meteorological expertise...
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1649. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
TJE, Sar breaks out the ban stick regularly, don't always agree, but in this case, seems like he's nailed it. Would love to respond in a scathing sarcastic manner to your ridiculous comments in #1572, but I'm due a day off from troll watch, so I'll leave it to Kori's LOL to speak volumes about your introduction to the blog. If your looking to make ban lists and not ever be taken seriously, congrats. LAbonbon on the other hand is a good example of a new blogger adding humor, opinion, and insight into what's discussed. It's fine to have an opinion that it's going to be a slow season. Give it as an opinion and back it up with scientific detail of why. Give it as an opinion, not a blanket statement. Most will respect that opinion. And on the GW comment, let me start by saying; just kidding, not going to go there.

Trib, me break out the ban stick regularly? Surely you jest. :-)

Here's what it comes down to. First, I'm an old guy, so I have neither the time left on earth nor the lack of hypertension needed to argue with people who just want to argue. Second, LAbonbon's reply was an excellent example of a good blogger trying to give a new guy a few pointers. LAbonbon, even though he's relatively new, is clearly not a troll or someone just trying to stir the pot. Third, I may have been too fast to put the other person on ignore but I doubt it. Very few new people come here after being a member for more than two years and, on their second post, put up something sure to agitate most of the blog. I'm sure I'll see enough quotes to know if he really did get on the wrong foot or my initial reactions was correct. If I was wrong, I'll be happy to take him off ignore. However, another "new guy" coming along right behind him agreeing with some of his ridiculous views is kind of tip off that it's the same guy.

I've never really understood this kind of mental illness, but we've had trolls on here that admit they have hundreds of "reserve" user names so they can just switch to another one when they get banned. That's the reason you see some people on their first or second post with a join date two or three years old. It takes a long time to build up a reserve fleet. ;-)
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The Euro sticking to its guns takes the system into the BOC.

Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
That's my boy it's still there.

FIM-7:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
1646. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's one reason I try not to get all giddy about active Cape Verde seasons.

I got flamed for saying this once, so just to clarify; I'm not saying not to monitor them; many of the United States' most infamous hurricanes came from the Cape Verde Islands region (Andrew, Ivan, Ike, etc.), but I would imagine the total number of recurves to US landfalls is considerably larger.

Kori, you sure wouldn't get flamed by me for your views. Since 1900, only an average of two CV storms a year make it to the CONUS, so it's not all that rare to have a low number of CV storms to begin with, and what does make it across are not all be some kind of monster storms. The history of CV storms has been quite clear. A relatively small number (about 10%) make landfall in the CONUS as a hurricane, and the vast majority that do make it to hurricane status either recurve or have limited effects on the USA. Given the right conditions, that TW that's now an AOI could turn into a storm far more dangerous than a typical CV storm, since they form closer to land, we tend to have less warning time, and the Gulf can provide some of the highest SST's and lowest shear, with good vertical instability. Tracking long track CV storms is more interesting for me from a meteorological view because I get to see how a storm interacts with a large area with varying conditions. When it comes to dangerous hurricanes in the Gulf, however, these little waves need a lot more monitoring than something about to come off of Africa.
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TJE, Sar breaks out the ban stick regularly, don't always agree, but in this case, seems like he's nailed it. Would love to respond in a scathing sarcastic manner to your ridiculous comments in #1572, but I'm due a day off from troll watch, so I'll leave it to Kori's LOL to speak volumes about your introduction to the blog. If your looking to make ban lists and not ever be taken seriously, congrats. LAbonbon on the other hand is a good example of a new blogger adding humor, opinion, and insight into what's discussed. It's fine to have an opinion that it's going to be a slow season. Give it as an opinion and back it up with scientific detail of why. Give it as an opinion, not a blanket statement. Most will respect that opinion. And on the GW comment, let me start by saying; just kidding, not going to go there.
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Quoting 1634. KoritheMan:


That's one reason I try not to get all giddy about active Cape Verde seasons.

I got flamed for saying this once, so just to clarify; I'm not saying not to monitor them; many of the United States' most infamous hurricanes came from the Cape Verde Islands region (Andrew, Ivan, Ike, etc.), but I would imagine the total number of recurves to US landfalls is considerably larger.


Exactly Koritheman. My feelings regarding the desire to experience a storm are the same as yours (as I gathered by reading some of your previous posts). The bottom line is most storms recurve and most of the lower end tropical cyclones that hit FL come from the Caribbean and/or Gulf. I no longer allow myself to get my hopes up for storms travelling across open Atlantic. Florida will get hit again by an Atlantic 'cane, but most years it does not.
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A few possibilities

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Tomorrow could be fun for me... under a slight risk!

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Quoting 1633. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Hong Kong WX webcams:

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/index_webcam_e.ht m



This site also has a rainfall distribution map, for the last hr, and the last 24 hrs. When on the 1-hr map, you can click 'previous hr' or 'next hr' repeatedly so you can see a graphical distribution of rainfall rate by hr. Thanks for the link.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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