Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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9 Years ago today this beast came roaring up I-4 with winds over 100mph. Hurricane Charley

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I thought I'd stir the pot this morning!!
This article came from the left leaning BBC!

Ice The report suggests that warming in the near term will be less than forecast

"The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone," said Dr Alexander Otto from the University of Oxford.

"The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before."

The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected.

But when it comes to the longer term picture, the authors say their work is consistent with previous estimates. The IPCC said that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2.0-4.5C.
Ocean storage

This latest research, including the decade of stalled temperature rises, produces a range of 0.9-5.0C.

"It is a bigger range of uncertainty," said Dr Otto.

"But it still includes the old range. We would all like climate sensitivity to be lower but it isn't."

The researchers say the difference between the lower short-term estimate and the more consistent long-term picture can be explained by the fact that the heat from the last decade has been absorbed into and is being stored by the world's oceans.

Not everyone agrees with this perspective.

Prof Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales, says the conclusion about the oceans needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now.

"There is other research out there pointing out that this storage may be part of a natural cycle that will eventually reverse, either due to El Nino or the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and therefore may not imply what the authors are suggesting," he said.

The authors say there are ongoing uncertainties surrounding the role of aerosols in the atmosphere and around the issue of clouds.

"We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing," said Dr Otto.

Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not real?

"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said.

Follow Matt on Twitter.
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2013.models.conflicts..like.two.boxers
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
Storms return today across C FL.


426 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN A WEAK
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE
REGION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND NEAR
AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR WHERE GREATER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.
MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW AND VARIABLE MOVEMENT WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO
3 INCHES WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

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Stormy times ahead for the SE Coast.

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1734. IKE
Quoting LAsurvivor:


Where exactly is the wave that everyone is talking about? All I see are lines of clouds. How far below Hispanola is it? How fast is it moving? When images are just posted, I just find that annoying. If you have the ability to circle what you are talking about or leave a comment above or below it, it would help, rather than just post an image with no explanation.
It says where in the advisory.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.


The advisory says where they think it will move.......

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

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1733. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Post 1729.

Nice to see that area looking benign, still.
The Atlantic too.

What a Wonderfully Weird season, so far.
Will it get weirder?
Stay tuned.
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1732. MahFL
The wall of shear to the north of the blob will prevent any more consolidation today. We must wait.
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1731. LargoFl
folks nothing at all has formed yet..relax..by Thursday they should know better whats going to happen in the southern gulf..now some models take whatever it becomes westward into the yucatan then continues west into the BOC..some models including the GFS take it thru the yucatan channel into the southern gulf............until this happens either way..all including the mets..are guessing...me?..im planning for 3-4 days of heavy rains and possibly some severe storms because im very near the west coastline.....NWS in Tallahassee says the panhandle..REGARDLESS of whatever tropical comes...can expect 5 inches or more rain from the cold front....if tropical system does comes..rain amoounts can double or triple..ok...so plan on getting ALOT of rain......................unless something strange happens..this will be a RAIN event..thats what ive said before and until something strange happens that is what I and my family are preparing for.
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Quoting 1678. Civicane49:
(Edited)

The main impediment for development I see for 92E is the mid-level dry air; in fact, 0z SHIPS sees the current relative humidity values below 60% and shows a gradual decrease in the coming days. If 92E wants to become a tropical depression, it has about 36 hours left of doing so before entering into a high shear environment and cold waters. 40% chance of development is a good call.

To the west, 90C (formerly 93E) continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although sea surface temperatures will remain warm in the system's projected path, moderate westerly shear will keep it in check for the next several days. Imminent development is unlikely to occur.

Good morning,92E and 90C had trouble since the mjo leave the area.
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1728. LargoFl
Looks like local met increased my rain chances for the weekend..
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1726. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, so you're one of those, are you? A member of that group of believers convinced the NHC intentionally names storms it shouldn't just for the sake of inducing panic and bolstering global warming theory? You should know there's another group--roughly the same size as yours and every bit as vocal--that's certain the NHC doesn't name storms that it should because it doesn't want to induce panic. Maybe you guys could all get together for dinner and talk things over to see which of your competing cockamamie theories is least nonsensical. Be warned, though: such a large gathering of gullibility and vacuousness in one spot could be like a clash of matter and anti-matter, so the whole confab could vanish with a "POP!" and a blinding flash of light.

That is, if we're lucky. ;-)

That's unduly Harsh, Nea.
Especially at this time of morning.
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Quoting 1714. IKE:



Where exactly is the wave that everyone is talking about? All I see are lines of clouds. How far below Hispanola is it? How fast is it moving? When images are just posted, I just find that annoying. If you have the ability to circle what you are talking about or leave a comment above or below it, it would help, rather than just post an image with no explanation.
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Good morning all...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
309 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. HOWEVER, IT IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR AREAS OVER TO THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY, AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA, BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL LIKELY
THROW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THEN ON THURSDAY, AN AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA, WILL
WORK ITS WAY NORTH AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING.

WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT ACROSS FLORIDA,
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Hell must have froze over....
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.I agree with Nea's last post.
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I don't know why, but the name "Utor" makes me think of a large Scandinavian woman chasing people down a mountain.
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1721. IKE
U too SAINT.

And so true MahFL.
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Good morning Ike.These models are a hoot aren't they. Way out in advance they predict ghost storms, but when the time nears for the supposed storm to develop the storms disappear lol. Well if it looks to me the euro has been spot on looks like its going to win on this gulf system. In summary Ike, we go from strong tropical storm maybe a cat 1 to a nothing. anyways Ike have a good day and God bless
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chirp.. chirp... cricket... cricket...
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1718. MahFL
@IKE yes people complain when we say we want hurricanes, but what we want won't influence mother nature.
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1717. IKE
There's nothing anyone can do about the weather. What happens, happens. We all complain about it at times....but whatever happens...will happen.....including the ATL.

panamasteve.......rainy period for us....again....I'm up in Defuniak Springs.

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From NWS Tallahassee:

Long term [thursday night through monday]...
a long wave trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf Coast early in the period as a reinforcing short wave
in the northern plains drops into the trough, resulting in a closed
low over the lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday. This low
gradually fills and weakens, leaving behind a weak trough for early
next week with an axis still to our west.


The end result is a prolonged period of rain for the southeast with
periods of heavy rain likely. Total rainfall from the GFS indicates
areas of rain up to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle through
Monday, due in part to its development of a tropical cyclone in the
Gulf which it brings into the Florida Panhandle Saturday.
The Canadian
also generates a tropical system similar to the GFS, however the
European model (ecmwf) does not generate a tropical system and therefore depicts
rainfall totals through Monday of about 5 inches.


Confidence of a period of heavy rain is high, and if the
GFS-advertised tropical system does develop then local rainfall
amounts could be double or triple the current wpc 5.5" totals.


Can we get a break?????
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Quoting 1572. TheTJE:
It's almost funny to me how meteorologist and amatuers make excuses when they are wrong. Everyone was predicting this amazing above average season and it turns out to be a complete bust. It's mid August folks and you can go two weeks out and see NOTHING. It just isn't happening this year - hell it's even been a strange rainy season here in South Florida with very few epic thunderstorms but sometimes DAYS of rain. Yet now people are hooting and hollering that it's going to be a LATE season - this is only the middle they say. So when are people going to accept that the climate may be changing, but it isn't changing the way we thought it was and this isn't going to be a big season? It's going to be a season where storms are named that should only - maybe - be named in an effort to try to reach the number they put out to panic people about global warming.
Oh, so you're one of those, are you? A member of that group of believers convinced the NHC intentionally names storms it shouldn't just for the sake of inducing panic and bolstering global warming theory? You should know there's another group--roughly the same size as yours and every bit as vocal--that's certain the NHC doesn't name storms that it should because it doesn't want to induce panic. Maybe you guys could all get together for dinner and talk things over to see which of your competing cockamamie theories is least nonsensical. Be warned, though: such a large gathering of gullibility and vacuousness in one spot could be like a clash of matter and anti-matter, so the whole confab could vanish with a "POP!" and a blinding flash of light.

That is, if we're lucky. ;-)
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1714. IKE

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I said it will be a slow season, yet no one listens and still says I need facts to say.

All I need is, the SAL seems to hold many of the CV systems in check, along with wind shear. Development right now is not good.

But those who want storms, will continue to find ways to say it will be a BIG season.
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1711. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
WED. A TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LOW PRES WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU...GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE NE GULF COAST SAT.
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morning, will these messy beginnings become the first hurricane of the season?
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1707. IKE
If I eat all that I better have a healthy roll of Charmin :)
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. We have a heat index of 84 already even with the sun not yet up and it's just turned five in the morning. Forecasts keep teasing of 40 and 50% chance of rain, but other than the other day, there hasn't been any here for my garden.

There's a tornado outside Washington DC on the ground near I95.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Scrambled Egg Pockets, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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Quoting 1616. KoritheMan:


double lol


Atlantic hurricane season is vanishing.
Triple lol
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1704. IKE
Latest GFS shows an influx of moisture in the NE GOM, but as far as tropical development...very little.
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1703. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!!

I see UTOR is still a beast



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1702. Gearsts
FIM 8
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1701. IKE
5 day qpf.......


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Mobile NWS this morning

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS COMBINED
WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES)
WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO EASILY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGES BOTH DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THE TROUGH INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO NOT DEVELOP A SFC LOW.
DUE THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
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1699. Gearsts
FIM develops the wave


NAVGEM kinda.


GEM
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1698. LargoFl
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1697. LargoFl
tampa nws 2am.............LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING
IN THE WEST AND WEAK TROUGHING IN THE EAST. A MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL STRETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG 30 NORTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS DISTURBANCE
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY
PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE EXACT IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE LOTS MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH CAPTURING
THE MOISTURE AND FUNNELING IT NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY RESULTING IN MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS.

&&

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1696. Ninj4

Quoting 1693. SunriseSteeda:


If later you are suddenly overwhelmed by ninjas, you'll know that the inside info came from here...


I'm watching you.
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1695. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee Is Perked,have a great day!..
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1694. TheTJE
Quoting 1693. SunriseSteeda:


If later you are suddenly overwhelmed by ninjas, you'll know that the inside info came from here...




On nights like tonight - ninjas would at least make for some excitement. Nothing Tropical to watch (I really don't follow what goes over in the Pacific). Unusually low humidity - so no thunderstorms. Beautiful day today so everyone went fishing - which means no drunks. Also Ocean Reef is a gated - private hotel and community, so the ninjas would have to be....well....ninjas to get past the gate. Nevermind.
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Quoting 1692. TheTJE:
Ocean Reef Club in North Key Largo, Florida - I'm Overnight Front Desk/ Night Audit which means it is mostly just me, the swamp critters,a bit of paperwork, and some drunks. Not even another employee.


If later you are suddenly overwhelmed by ninjas, you'll know that the inside info came from here...


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1692. TheTJE
Ocean Reef Club in North Key Largo, Florida - I'm Overnight Front Desk/ Night Audit which means it is mostly just me, the swamp critters,a bit of paperwork, and some drunks. Not even another employee.
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Quoting 1690. TheTJE:


As time goes on I'm sure I will come up with more. I'm going to be around a lot - Work 11p-7a. Most of it downtime when I'm usually observing this and a couple other of places.


Where do you work?
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1690. TheTJE
Quoting 1689. KoritheMan:


Did it help you any? :P

Any follow up questions?

If you're serious about learning, I can help you.


As time goes on I'm sure I will come up with more. I'm going to be around a lot - Work 11p-7a. Most of it downtime when I'm usually observing this and a couple other of places.
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Quoting 1688. TheTJE:


Thank you very much for giving my post your time tonight.


Did it help you any? :P

Any follow up questions?

If you're serious about learning, I can help you.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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