Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1722. cajunkid:
I don't know why, but the name "Utor" makes me think of a large Scandinavian woman chasing people down a mountain.


Ricollllaaaaaa
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Quoting 1741. IKE:
As far as it being a slow season....this one didn't start until August 14th, 1969......the "C" storm........ with 259 deaths.....







And.....look where it developed...
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Nice retrograde motion at 30n 60w.
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Quoting 1784. StormTrackerScott:


I agree doesn't look good at all that's why I eluded to the set up in 2004


Frances and Jeanne- what a misery for us up here in the Treasure Coast. I am prepared for the remainder of this season as are my neighbors. But are we really ever ready for the big one? I don't think so regardless of the preparations.
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1785. MahFL
Quoting 1739. StormTrackerScott:
9 Years ago today this beast came roaring up I-4 with winds over 100mph. Hurricane Charley



Where I work in JAX we had a guy come up from Orlando and he could not believe the amount of downed trees and some trashed signs we had, and his quote was on the lines of "I did not think Charley had affected this area". People forgot how big even smaller sized hurricanes are.
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Quoting 1778. rmbjoe1954:


Hi scott-

Florida doesn't seem to be in a good position for the reaminder of the Cape Verde season.


I agree doesn't look good at all that's why I eluded to the set up in 2004
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4669
1783. SRQfl
Quoting 1739. StormTrackerScott:
9 Years ago today this beast came roaring up I-4 with winds over 100mph. Hurricane Charley



I remember the day well, surfing and boarding up my place on Anna Maria island where Charlie was forecast to plow thru into Tampa Bay. I then evacuated Southeast to a friend's house in Myakka City. We watched TWC as Charlie decided to take that right turn early as I realized I had evacuated INTO the storm's path. While it was sunny, and slightly breezy back home on the island with perfect waves. I think Allanis Morrisett wrote a song for me just for that day...
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Do the mountains in Columbia always get the late night munchies and eat the impressive storm cells that build over the day or pass that way?
It looked like an impressive vanishing act last night...again.
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1781. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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Quoting 1756. kmanislander:
Good morning

The low in the extreme SW Caribbean seems to have won the fight for dominance over the developing area below Hispaniola and the lower convergence has now shifted to be colocated with it. Shear is low down South which will give this a better chance to organise assuming it doesnt slip across into the Pacific.

For the moment motion appears to be pretty much stationary from yesterday so the long process continues
with this monsoonal low.

Then that means that the Euro track into BOC may be more probable after all.
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Quoting 1741. IKE:
As far as it being a slow season....this one didn't start until August 14th, 1969......the "C" storm........ with 259 deaths.....






Yep. I was 12 when that storm hit. I was born and raised in Baton Rouge. Now live just north of Denham Springs. My father designed and help build the only camp to survive the storm in Ocean Springs. It was hexagon shaped. Huge pilings were driven all the way down to the bedrock at each point of the hexagon and anchored both to the deck and the roof with large beams. The camp itself sat 16 feet above the water and the lower portion was just a screened area that would break away with the first waves. The only damage was a broken bathroom window. Unfortunately, the surge for Katrina was 20 feet, not the 12 of Camille. The camp survived Katrina, but had pretty bad water damage. Don't know if the owners have restored it. My brother lived in Gulf Hills, which got a 22 foot surge from Back Bay during Katrina. He lost everything.

We could easily have another Camille or a Katrina at any time. Do I think we will this year? Don't know. It seems like it has been a strange year as fare as development. Things look promising but then they die out. I hope that's the case with this wave. My son just bought a new house in Milton, FL and has to try to move this weekend. He may have to swim!
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Quoting 1775. StormTrackerScott:
I haven't this much of a push of cold air coming down in th August since 2004. I sure hope this isn't a bad omen for FL.


Hi Scott-

Florida doesn't seem to be in a good position for the remainder of the Cape Verde season.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
Today is the 9th anniversary of Charley's trek through Florida. Easily the most memorable hurricane for me, though I've only been in two (Him and Irene).

Gonna be another hot one today, already 80 out. Coffee's perking.
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1776. LargoFl
UKMET is onboard with GFS..into the gulf...........
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I haven't this much of a push of cold air coming down in th August since 2004. I sure hope this isn't a bad omen for FL.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4669
1773. VR46L
Quoting 1725. LAsurvivor:


Where exactly is the wave that everyone is talking about? All I see are lines of clouds. How far below Hispanola is it? How fast is it moving? When images are just posted, I just find that annoying. If you have the ability to circle what you are talking about or leave a comment above or below it, it would help, rather than just post an image with no explanation.


Here is a Surface area Map of the Caribbean You can see the wave Marked on it



On this Image from NRL site You can see there is alot of moisture associated .. Its a water Vapour Map there is a bar at the bottom telling what colours mean the most moist areas

Click To Enlarge


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Here is the 06Z GFS run for a reference point; not much there in terms of the Gulf low but look at that riding pattern in the Central Atlantic.

Not much of a chance of mid-Atlantic re-curvature at the moment; this pattern does not bode well for the remainder of the Cape Verde season which is just a few weeks away.............The Caribbean and Florida need to be on high alert this season.

Link

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Very cold night across the upper MidWest. I mean really 33 degrees in Minnesota in August? This cold air dips even further south Wednesday Night with lows in the 50's all the way down to Northern Miss, and NW Alabama.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4669
Quoting 1764. kmanislander:
Coffee time here
You're late. I am on my second extra large :)
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1769. LargoFl
06z GFS..it says a Panhandle hit..............
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Rotation just East of Nicaragua is becoming better defined. This could be tagged as an Invest any time today IMO.
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Mornig all,,
I fly into swfl international on september 2 for my 10th year in a row hoping to experience some tropical weather and good fishing :) one of the main reasons i keep returning to Marco island is the extreme weather. I rode Wilma out in north Naples out by immokalee and it was awesome got a feeling this years hurricane seasons gonna be a cracker!anyway love reading the blog everyday!! have a great august!

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Quoting 1763. LargoFl:
I guess it all depends in the next day or so..if whatever this becomes..can feel the weakness in the trough and get pulled northward into the gulf.....if the weakness doesn't happen or the system is too far south to feel it..then it goes westward....that's why until say Thursday...everyone is guessing.


well reasoned posts like this are not allowed...
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Quoting 1716. panamasteve:
From NWS Tallahassee:

Long term [thursday night through monday]...
a long wave trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf Coast early in the period as a reinforcing short wave
in the northern plains drops into the trough, resulting in a closed
low over the lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday. This low
gradually fills and weakens, leaving behind a weak trough for early
next week with an axis still to our west.


The end result is a prolonged period of rain for the southeast with
periods of heavy rain likely. Total rainfall from the GFS indicates
areas of rain up to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle through
Monday, due in part to its development of a tropical cyclone in the
Gulf which it brings into the Florida Panhandle Saturday.
The Canadian
also generates a tropical system similar to the GFS, however the
European model (ecmwf) does not generate a tropical system and therefore depicts
rainfall totals through Monday of about 5 inches.


Confidence of a period of heavy rain is high, and if the
GFS-advertised tropical system does develop then local rainfall
amounts could be double or triple the current wpc 5.5" totals.


Can we get a break?????


Doesn't look like it. I'm in Fort Walton Beach and we just made it two days without rain but not looking good for day 3. I haven't made it 4 days without rain since sometime back in June. This weekend could be ugly whether a tropcal system develops or not.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3120
Coffee time here
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1763. LargoFl
I guess it all depends in the next day or so..if whatever this becomes..can feel the weakness in the trough and get pulled northward into the gulf.....if the weakness doesn't happen or the system is too far south to feel it..then it goes westward....that's why until say Thursday...everyone is guessing.
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Quoting 1757. Tropicsweatherpr:
The Cayman Islands radar will be interesting to follow as the wave moves thru the area.



That it will. Pity that I am waiting on a new mother board for the ISS suite of my weather station. The lightning strike two weeks ago damaged it and while I got the station back on line the wind direction is stuck on N.

Everything else works thankfully and the new board will arrive by Thursday.
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Also, here is the current position of the warm pools in the Gulf. Not much there in the Central Gulf but a nice big warm eddy just to the NW of the Western tip of Cuba. However, an undeveloped wave will miss it on the way to the Yucatan. Assuming that a storm does form closer to the Yucatan, and moves towards the Panhandle over the weekend, there is another warm area off the coast of LA/Florida Panhandle. This needs to be watched in terms of a potential multiplier as the system (if it does materialize) nears the Coast.

Link


Hopefully, it will just amount to a TS at best.

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 121412
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 12 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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Good morning everyone. Kind of looks like a mess in the Caribbean but nothing serious getting started yet. I've now made it two days without rain but chances for rain increase to 40% for today. Not sure if I'll make it 3 days.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3120
The Weather God of Oklahoma City
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The Cayman Islands radar will be interesting to follow as the wave moves thru the area.

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Good morning

The low in the extreme SW Caribbean seems to have won the fight for dominance over the developing area below Hispaniola and the lower convergence has now shifted to be colocated with it. Shear is low down South which will give this a better chance to organise assuming it doesnt slip across into the Pacific.

For the moment motion appears to be pretty much stationary from yesterday so the long process continues
with this monsoonal low.

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1755. LargoFl
and this from Levi's site from yesterday.............
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1754. LargoFl
Quoting 1753. IKE:

The NAM model isn't great on tracks. I would side more with the GFS.
yes I also am believing the GFS..
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1753. IKE

Quoting LargoFl:
looks like the Nam takes it into the yucatan and westward..
The NAM model isn't great on tracks. I would side more with the GFS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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Quoting 1739. StormTrackerScott:
9 Years ago today this beast came roaring up I-4 with winds over 100mph.



I remember like it was yesterday. All my kids were very young and I thought my roof was going to go. That was a tough year for Central Fl. Felt like we were pinned inside for months.
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1750. LargoFl
GFS takes the moisture into the panhandle..
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1749. LargoFl
looks like the Nam takes it into the yucatan and westward..
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1748. IKE

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Let's not forget that late "A" storm of "92".
The "A" storm.....August 16th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting 1741. IKE:
As far as it being a slow season....this one didn't start until August 14th, 1969......the "C" storm........






Let's not forget that late "A" storm of "92".
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Good Morning Folks. There appears to be some confidence from NWS sources on a possible system in the Gulf over the weekend. Time will tell but there is lots of sheer in the Caribbean South of Hispanola with that wave at the moment in the 30-40 knot range and things don't quiet down until the Yucatan/Western tip of Cuba with low shear.

Link

We have a few days of waiting as the wave moves West.
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1744. LargoFl
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 110 Comments: 105687
1742. LargoFl
Quoting 1739. StormTrackerScott:
9 Years ago today this beast came roaring up I-4 with winds over 100mph.

gee I remember that one alright..was supposed to hit Tampa Bay and was the only time I ever boarded up my windows.
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1741. IKE
As far as it being a slow season....this one didn't start until August 14th, 1969......the "C" storm........ with 259 deaths.....




Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
nice tropical wave here
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 110 Comments: 105687
9 Years ago today this beast came roaring up I-4 with winds over 100mph. Hurricane Charley

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4669

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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