Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1837. scott39:
I dont like the idea of the AOI in the SW caribbean, tracking N across the Western and NW Caribbean.
...ditto.
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Dr. Steve Lyons did an awesome job on Charley as well. TWC hasn't been the same since he left. So sad! Now we have to deal with Greg Postel.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4349
1837. scott39
I dont like the idea of the AOI in the SW caribbean, tracking N across the Western and NW Caribbean.
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1836. dmh1026
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
543 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-132200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
543 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FROM PUNTA
GORDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH FORT MYERS. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...HEAT IMPACT...
PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 100
TO 105 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE
RESULTING IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
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so the new runs of the GFS show nothing new developing? not a shocker at all. cmc has a hurricane. i dont know when the GFS model is going to flip the switch
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Quoting 1803. trunkmonkey:
The job I want when I grow up is naming Hurricanes!

I bet I'm not the only one in here that could come up with some really great names!

I'll start with the A's

Abie!
Abner!
ABDULRAHMAN!
Abercrombie!
see there's a whole list of names, so why do we need to repeat storm name's

Just throwin it out there folks!!!!

How about "Aintgonnahappen!"
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Organizing slowly...depending on what the forecast is by the models and for wind shear we could see this area tagged an invest later today.



Surface charts show the low in the SW Caribbean is stationary as the Tropical Wave approaches it, will be interesting to see how this interaction takes place.



Currently steering is into Central America, however heights are decreasing in the GOM as the trough continues to dig in and we await another short wave energy.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8768
Quoting 1825. VR46L:


Still very tough , but he is still around :)

Gangbuster sounds like ya listened to the pre season hype ...I know I did , will think twice about it next year


Happy to hear that! Hope that things continue to improve.

Hype? What hype? ;) I was using sound science - combined with a few libations when I came up with my numbers.

By the way, the flood advisory banner above the page is cool and all, but anyone know how to get rid of it? I tried making a comment, and hitting the x, but it keeps popping back up when I refresh.
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1831. pcola57
Quoting 1823. Birthmark:

Okay, so are the climate models reliable or not? LOL


Morning Birthmark..
I don't think they are..
This will be a anomolous climate season..
JMO.. :)
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Nearly every model is in very good agreement CURRENTLY that a possible Tropical System will impact the Panhandle of Florida. Most models have a very weak system at landfall except the CMC model which has a near Hurricane coming onshore. It appears Shear will at least stay in the 10-15kts of shear so a strong system is not likely. But, if the shear relaxes below 10kts. a stronger system which the CMC is forecasting is possible. The NHC is giving the suspect area a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. That seems reasonable considering the Shear. The largest concern is the impact area has had a lot of rain already and the ground is completely full of moisture. FLOODING could be a MAJOR CONCERN inland.
One thing of Note....the reason the Euro keeps it going west is because it has it as a weak system...the stronger the storm the more North it will become.....so if it moves north the Euro will jump on as a stronger system as well.
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12n80.deep.tropics
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Some big population centers are within the possibilities of landfall of Utop 100 knot Cyclone

Zhanjiang-6,993,304-2010 Census





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1827. pcola57
Quoting 1819. stormpetrol:
Link

11.5N/81.3W LLC


Good Morning stormpetrol..
Those co-ordinances seem spot on to me..
Good eye.. :)
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Good Morning!

7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Sunrise in Lantana, Florida - looking over the Intracoastal Waterway.

It was still a little dark out when I noticed a stick in the neighbor's driveway that looked remarkably like a lizard...

...and in fact, turned out to be a lizard, a Knight Anole to be precise. Also sometimes called a Cuban Lizard, as that's where the species originates. Florida is the most susceptible state in the Union for invasive species; pretty much anything that shows up here flourishes. This guy stayed rigid while I took a few pics before he ran (very fast) up the tree you see behind him.


Dexter peeks up through the boards at his favorite crabbing spot under the neighbor's boat dock.

I came, I saw Ibis...

White Ibis on a wire. We call 'em 'The Aerators' due to their predilection for finding food by poking holes in the lawn. They show up in gangs that Dexter longs to run through and make fly.

No rain again yesterday, but chances on Thursday went from 40 to 50 to now 60%. So, probably won't rain on Thursday.


Another very hot, humid day on tap here. Have a great day all, and...
blog on!
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1825. VR46L
Quoting 1820. daddyjames:


If only i were that low - it'll have to be a gangbuster of a season to reach the 19 storms I put up - much less the 10 hurricanes I thought would be swirling p. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

How are things going in your neck o' the world?


Still very tough , but he is still around :)

Gangbuster sounds like ya listened to the pre season hype ...I know I did , will think twice about it next year
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1824. scott39
Goodmorning, The area in the SW Caribbean seems to be pulling itself together nicely. Low level convergence, Lowering wind shear and very warm waters in the Western Caribbean, COULD aid in developing a TC rather quickly. I believe this why the GFS has it feeling the weakness torward the N, opposed to the EURO having it go W, as a weaker system.
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Quoting 1738. trunkmonkey:

Okay, so are the climate models reliable or not? LOL
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1822. FOREX
Quoting 1819. stormpetrol:
Link

11.5N/81.3W LLC


Sure is easy to see but I wonder if it will move West onto land?
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1821. ncstorm
funnel clouds were already reported this morning over Baltimore, MD







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16216
Quoting 1818. VR46L:


Great to see ya ! long time no see !:)

I think my numbers are too high at 15 storms ...


If only i were that low - it'll have to be a gangbuster of a season to reach the 19 storms I put up - much less the 10 hurricanes I thought would be swirling :p. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

How are things going in your neck o' the world?
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Link

11.5N/81.3W LLC
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1818. VR46L
Quoting 1815. daddyjames:
G' morning from a soggy central OK.

Hey, long time no blog for me.

Went on a bit of a jaunt, come back and find plenty of rain here in OK to last a while. A bit strange to see everything so green this time of year.

Hope all have been doing well. Tropics have been remarkably silent, although let's see what happens once that big burst of dry air from Africa gets cleared out.

Looks like my numbers may have been a bit high, but I am still standing by them:

@Aussie - weather God may be a bit much, but Gary England definitely is one of the better forecasters, if not the best in the business!

Have a good one. Will be back around (you can take that as a promise or a threat) - ;D


Great to see ya ! long time no see !:)

I think my numbers are too high at 15 storms ...
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Good morning today marks the 9th anniversary of Hurricane Charley:

HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY ON TRACK...EYE MOVING OVER DRY TORTUGAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM
NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CUBA WAS DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM EDT.

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS CHARLEY APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

SAND KEY NEAR KEY WEST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH DURING THE
LAST HOUR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE



I had the pleasure of meeting Don Germaise recently at a local Red Cross here in Pinellas County on the West Coast of FL. He was a real stand up guy.

Tom Terry with the call:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8768
1816. FOREX
Quoting 1810. TheDawnAwakening:
Surface low trying to get going back near 10n: 80w. However due to its formative stages, best low level convergence is near NE Honduras and Nicaragua.


Sure looks like something is trying to organize.
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G' morning from a soggy central OK.

Hey, long time no blog for me.

Went on a bit of a jaunt, come back and find plenty of rain here in OK to last a while. A bit strange to see everything so green this time of year.

Hope all have been doing well. Tropics have been remarkably silent, although let's see what happens once that big burst of dry air from Africa gets cleared out.

Looks like my numbers may have been a bit high, but I am still standing by them:

@Aussie - weather God may be a bit much, but Gary England definitely is one of the better forecasters, if not the best in the business!

Have a good one. Will be back around (you can take that as a promise or a threat) - ;D
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Good morning all, large storms and a big shield of rain just to my west yesterday. My palms got 6 drops each at my place by the lake. Even my pet alligator asked for a bottled water lol. 84 here this morning and a low 92% humidity. Had a beautiful sunrise over the lake on my passage into the bowl for the daily grind, so that portends a few more storms today I believe. Have a super day Nat, VR, NC, Gro and all.
Peace
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More like near 11.5-12.0n: 80w.
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Quoting 1726. pottery:

That's unduly Harsh, Nea.
Especially at this time of morning.
Sorry, Pottery. I wasn't sure whether to write it, but I couldn't find a section of the "Rules of the Road" that defined the hours one was allowed to respond to nonsense posted overnight, so I went ahead. ;-)
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Surface low trying to get going back near 10n: 80w. However due to its formative stages, best low level convergence is near NE Honduras and Nicaragua.
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1808. ncstorm
The CMC is trying its best to make a new Venice..







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16216
Quoting 1735. StormTrackerScott:
Stormy times ahead for the SE Coast.



Yeah Scott definitely not what we need in NW Florida but looks like we're going to get it regardless. I just hope the front makes it through this far South and brings us some cooler weather like those North of us are going to get! Our luck it will stall out and rain for days.
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Quoting 1801. Xyrus2000:


Perhaps. Report and ignore was probably better choice. But I understand where he's coming from. This is supposed to be a science blog. Insulting/nonsensical/conspiratorial ramblings don't really belong here and not everyone who comes here may have a well honed BS filter.

How do you understand where he is coming from. Can you please explain why? And tell me something else Xyrus. Where anywhere does it say this is "supposed" to be a science blog? Help me out here.
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1805. VR46L
RMTC - Sector 5 - Ch 4 - Thermal Infrared RAMMB

Loop Embedded

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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100414
The job I want when I grow up is naming Hurricanes!

I bet I'm not the only one in here that could come up with some really great names!

I'll start with the A's

Abie!
Abner!
ABDULRAHMAN!
Abercrombie!
see there's a whole list of names, so why do we need to repeat storm name's

Just throwin it out there folks!!!!

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1802. SRQfl
Slight pressure drop in the W Caribbean
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Quoting 1726. pottery:

That's unduly Harsh, Nea.
Especially at this time of morning.


Perhaps. Report and ignore was probably better choice. But I understand where he's coming from. This is supposed to be a science blog. Insulting/nonsensical/conspiratorial ramblings don't really belong here and not everyone who comes here may have a well honed BS filter.
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It does seem odd that there are no named storms in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins today- at this time of the year. It's only a matter of time though.
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Quoting 1794. trunkmonkey:
This is what I really like about this thread, all the information from different sources regarding tropical weather, WOW! thanks everyone!!


Don't be so nice....will ya....WHATS up buddy. :)
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1798. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/AOI/XXL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55532
Look at all that rain for Jamaica
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1796. SRQfl
Quoting 1792. FOREX:


Is the spin to the SW of all of the thunderstorm activity part of this same system we are watching?

That is a monsoonal low, often found spinning there this time of year. It may interact with the pouch the NHC has circled but as of now they are separate entities.
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remember.Bonnie?...40mph..miami
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This is what I really like about this thread, all the information from different sources regarding tropical weather, WOW! thanks everyone!!
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JMA
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1792. FOREX
Quoting 1791. SRQfl:
Lets shine some light on the situation...


Is the spin to the SW of all of the thunderstorm activity part of this same system we are watching?
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1791. SRQfl
Lets shine some light on the situation...
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The pouch group analizes 16L.

ECMWF: One could argue that this feature is simply the Panama Low, which the models tend to overdevelop. Similar to yesterday, tracking toward the Bay of Campeche, with minimal increase in OW.

GFS: Outlier! The feature tracked remains SEPARATE from the Panama Low. P16L is only an OW max for the first 36 hours, becoming a pouch during the 48-60 hour period as it passes just west of Cuba. Once in the Gulf, P16L weakens to an OW max again. Not as strong as in yesterday's forecast. "Landfall" in the Florida panhandle at 108 hours.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF. I track a tiny trough on the northern side of the Panama Low for the first 36 hours. At 48 hours, a distinct pouch is finally depicted. It is only a distinct pouch again at 72 hours as it tracks over southern Yucatan, becoming a very tiny and dissipating OW max in the Bay of Campeche, weakening over water.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14761
Quoting 1722. cajunkid:
I don't know why, but the name "Utor" makes me think of a large Scandinavian woman chasing people down a mountain.


Ricollllaaaaaa
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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