Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 89 - 39

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Quoting 77. DavidHOUTX:


How is time running out when the peak of the season is about a month away?

when does our first hurricane usally form? early august. the models dont show a SINGLE hurricane by august 28th... you dont find that at all awkward? seriously, time is running out unless the entire seasonill be in september and october which i find is unrealistic
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
Quoting 85. wunderweatherman123:
models dont develop ANYTHING. ANYTHING is there something wrong with the models or our forecasts?
...and MODELS are good up to when? When the the season end?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
87. MTWX
Looking foward to the cool down later this week into the weekend for the Southeast!! Forcasted highs in the low 80's and lows in the mid 60's!! I'll take it!! Especially after these highs in the mid 90's with heat indices in the 105-115 range lately!!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you're going to fail to acknowledge the factors that are going to make this season active, I see no reason to start an argument lol.
models dont develop ANYTHING. ANYTHING is there something wrong with the models or our forecasts?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
Quoting 76. Grothar:


It is also one of the hottest peppers I have ever eaten. We have them growing in the back. I planted the seeds.
Save me some for when I come to visit you, would like to make some nice pepper sauce with it. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please not the Panhandle we are still recovering from 20+ inches of rain last month. To all the wishcasters please send it somewhere else, waiting for Noah to pull up in my backyard with an Ark. 40 days and 40 nights and I don't even go to church.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sinkhole collapses Disney-area resort
Lake County firefighters said no one was injured.


By Arelis R. Hernández, Eloisa Gonzalez and Stephen Hudak, Orlando Sentinel
11:05 a.m. EDT, August 12, 2013

First came the cracking sounds. Then windows started blowing out. And before they knew it, guests felt the ground beneath their Lake County resort near Disney World sink into the ground.

Guests had only 10 to 15 minutes to escape the collapsing buildings at the Summer Bay Resort on U.S. Highway 192 in the Four Corners area, located about 7 miles west of Walt Disney World resort, where a large sinkhole — about 60 feet in diameter and 15 feet deep — opened in the earth late Sunday.

No one was injured but about three dozen resort goers left behind car keys, medication and other personal belongings inside their luxury condominiums after the crumbling edifices were evacuated.


"My heart sunk. I was sick to my stomach," said resort president Paul Caldwell after getting a call about 10:30 p.m. from his staff that the 15-year-old buildings full of guests were sinking into the ground.

"No doubt there would've been injuries if they hadn't gotten the building evacuated," he said during a live news conference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 66. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks Doc..."the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing."

Sad news to hear, wish them well as they begin to pick up the pieces. I have faith they will be right back up on their feet as with all landfalling major hurricanes/typhoons.

..."the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday."

Subtropical Storm Erin?


If the trough is as far south as the GFS is painting the low will have some baroclinic energy to tap into as it noses N of the mid-level ridging bridged out to the AB High. Would most likely have a tilted core structure from shearing, also...
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Lets just say for discussions sake..the GFS is right on the money with a weak tropical storm hitting the panhandle of florida........now how does one prepare for a tropical storm?........me i'd be taking in things that can blow around outside the house, and definitely trimming tree's like dead branches etc..and if im in a flood zone, dunno what I would do about that..do you maybe?....guess if I did..live in a flood zone i'd have sand bags handy always huh.....anything else one should do to prepare?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 67. wunderweatherman123:
models arent showing anything strong in the atlantic when conditions will be primed for development. starting to have doubts
I'm thinking this will be a 2nd half season. We'll probably have Erin here in a couple of days and after that look for development to start picking up in the Atlantic between the 20th-30th. We still have September and October as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 73. wunderweatherman123:
everyone says conditions will be favorable. if they were, why hasnt the GFS develop systems by CV? heck even 1 and sustained it for more than 2 runs? how about you provide evidence that this season will be active? time is running out. dont tell me we are a neutral enso and the SSTS are warm and the SAL is low. ive heard that too much because i see nothing to show this season will be active like previously though. i hope im wrong. just dont see it

If you're going to fail to acknowledge the factors that are going to make this season active, I see no reason to start an argument lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 73. wunderweatherman123:
everyone says conditions will be favorable. if they were, why hasnt the GFS develop systems by CV? heck even 1 and sustained it for more than 2 runs? how about you provide evidence that this season will be active? time is running out. dont tell me we are a neutral enso and the SSTS are warm and the SAL is low. ive heard that too much because i see nothing to show this season will be active like previously though. i hope im wrong. just dont see it


How is time running out when the peak of the season is about a month away?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 62. AussieStorm:
Dr Masters, you could also add.
The word Labuyo means Wild Chicken in Tagalog.


It is also one of the hottest peppers I have ever eaten. We have them growing in the back. I planted the seeds.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208


From Typhoon ‘Labuyo’ on its way out of PH—Pagasa

Two English language links for news from the Philippines here:
Inquirer.net and Philippine News
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 63. VR46L:


So am I . but its not how active it is . one landfalling Major and thats a bad season ...2010 was active but was basically harmless ... if Irene and Sandy had not happened 2011 and 2012 would have been relatively harmless but active.
It will be active...just wait.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 65. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wish you would provide evidence like others have instead of just restating that every day.
everyone says conditions will be favorable. if they were, why hasnt the GFS develop systems by CV? heck even 1 and sustained it for more than 2 runs? how about you provide evidence that this season will be active? time is running out. dont tell me we are a neutral enso and the SSTS are warm and the SAL is low. ive heard that too much because i see nothing to show this season will be active like previously though. i hope im wrong. just dont see it
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
Quoting 63. VR46L:


So am I . but its not how active it is . one landfalling Major and thats a bad season ...2010 was active but was basically harmless ... if Irene and Sandy had not happened 2011 and 2012 would have been relatively harmless but active.


Can't forget Isaac in 2012 - lots of flooding
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting 62. AussieStorm:
Dr Masters, you could also add.
The word Labuyo means Wild Chicken in Tagalog.
...who cares!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 58. LargoFl:
well regardless of development, I guess Tampa bay can expect those heavy rains again thurs-friday..gee
Looks like more grass to mow, becoming an every other day thing here now, well it's better than having drought conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 63. VR46L:


So am I . but its not how active it is . one landfalling Major and thats a bad season ...2010 was active but was basically harmless ... if Irene and Sandy had not happened 2011 and 2012 would have been relatively harmless but active.
models arent showing anything strong in the atlantic when conditions will be primed for development. starting to have doubts
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
Thanks Doc..."the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing."

Sad news to hear, wish them well as they begin to pick up the pieces. I have faith they will be right back up on their feet as with all landfalling major hurricanes/typhoons.

..."the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday."

Subtropical Storm Erin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 59. wunderweatherman123:
im beginning to suspect this season may not be as active as people thought

I wish you would provide evidence like others have instead of just restating that every day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 59. wunderweatherman123:
im beginning to suspect this season may not be as active as people thought



I already gave my reasons why as well....but, NOBODY KNOWS! My opinion does not mean squash to anything as it ONLY TAKES ONE STORM to REMEMBER a season! just sayn
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 59. wunderweatherman123:
im beginning to suspect this season may not be as active as people thought


So am I . but its not how active it is . one landfalling Major and thats a bad season ...2010 was active but was basically harmless ... if Irene and Sandy had not happened 2011 and 2012 would have been relatively harmless but active.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
Dr Masters, you could also add.
The word Labuyo means Wild Chicken in Tagalog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Eye is back on Utor. Looks ragged though.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 48. TampaSpin:
The Shear Forecast for the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the next 48hrs is still very high for anything to organize very quickly. Unless this Shear drops I don't see much happening...Watch the Shear....it will tell us if anything develops!

im beginning to suspect this season may not be as active as people thought
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
well regardless of development, I guess Tampa bay can expect those heavy rains again thurs-friday..gee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the GFS still goes with the tropical moisture whatever it becomes heading to the panhandle of florida..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks so much for the update doc!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shanghai may just get a cool down going by the FIM 9 model.





The FIM 8 doesn't intensify it as strongly though but still in the same area.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 48. TampaSpin:
The Shear Forecast for the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the next 48hrs is still very high for anything to organize very quickly. Unless this Shear drops I don't see much happening...Watch the Shear....it will tell us if anything develops!



It is forecast to drop later in the week well the GFS does ..
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
Lets see what happens when the Blob to end all Blobs
emerges in 2 days. If the SAL is still an inhibiting factor, we may be waiting till next year for a real Cape Verde. The VITO is good ( Vorticity Index To Overcome), the DOMINIC looks OK, and the CARMINE (Common Arctic Retrograde Might Influence New Erins)
has never been better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does not look bad now...I do believe that will change in a few days..

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22618
Quoting 33. Edortiz1988:
The situation in the Philippines is catastrophic. Our thoughts and prayers with them all.
First people that should pray are those who likes hurricanes and enjoy landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Shear Forecast for the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the next 48hrs is still very high for anything to organize very quickly. Unless this Shear drops I don't see much happening...Watch the Shear....it will tell us if anything develops!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another system looks like it's going to form in the WPAC in a few days over Taiwan.





The CMC has it sitting out over water for a while, causing it to strengthen into a very powerful storm (935mb):



GFS has it as a Typhoon, but not to the strength the CMC has it:



It'll be interesting to watch. The models aren't that good at intensity in the WPAC due to lack of extra data input while a storm is going. They've generally underintensified quite a few systems this year (Soulik and Utor in particular).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 40. RitaEvac:


Wherever the models are pointing it out now, it wont go there, just the way it works.


It is looking better now than it was the past few days lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning.

The South Caribbean looks interesting, having some disorganized convection, a weak circulation, and some displaced convergence. Is this the area the NHC is watching or another place? Nevertheless, it'll definately be something to watch at least. Considering a lot of the models pick up a disturbance in the near future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 29. dflam:
FIM9 is showing a storm in the GOM next week






Yeah I guess the LA/MS/AL/FL area is beating the TX area so far.

gtg....see you guys this afternoon.

Man I hate early august.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least it's good to see that the heat wave in Shanghai slowly will come to an end.

Afternoon showers bring relief from extreme heat
2013-08-12 10:00

An afternoon thundershower in Shanghai brought much-needed relief as the mercury dropped below 35 degrees C (= 95F) yesterday after hovering around 40s for much of last week.

The highest temperature recorded yesterday was 38.4 degrees Celsius, the weather bureau said.

A yellow lightning alert was issued by the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau at 2:43pm, warning of likely thunderstorms in north part of the downtown, and in Baoshan and Jiading districts.

Temperatures in some parts of these areas even fell to 25 degrees or below, the weather bureau said.

Today's high is expected to be 37 degrees. Temperatures from tomorrow to Thursday are likely to hover between 35 and 36 degrees with mainly sunny and cloudy weather.

For the rest of the week, the highs will be 35 or less, followed by intermittent showers.

By the end of this week, the near-month long heat wave in Shanghai could come to an end. Chufu, literally meaning getting out of the hottest period of the summer, falls on August 22 on the Chinese lunar calender. ...

Utor is unlikely to cool down Shanghai.

"It is the north-moving subtropical high that will bring some relief to the city. Utor will mainly influence the circulation in some regions around the west Pacific," said Kong Chunyan, a chief service officer at the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau.

Also, yesterday was the sixth consecutive day when Shanghai's air quality was reported to be moderately or heavily polluted with the AQI exceeding 150. Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center recorded the AQI as 178 at 5pm.

Some scenic spots turned off the landscape lights last week due to the extreme hot days. The Shanghai Greenery and Public Sanitation Bureau rules state that lights should be turned off to save energy if the temperature crosses 38 degrees or above.

"It was the first time that the Oriental Pearl TV Tower turned off the lights,"Guo Yifeng, vice general manager of the tower, said. "We can save about 2,000 kilowatt hours a day if these lights are off."

The Shanghai World Financial Center had also switched off the lights for more than 16 days.

Whole article see link above.

Overview on the current situation including Japan see in a new article from Wall Street Journal:
Heat Wave Plagues Cities Across Asia
A record-setting heat wave across North Asia is straining power grids, killing and sickening residents, and raising concerns about farms and water supplies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.Here's my apology blog in case some missed
Link


BTW I don't blame the Euro for not picking up on storms.It probably prefers quantity over quality.Would you rather sniff out the next cat 5 in the Atlantic and get it right?.Or pick up on a weak storm that won't be remembered in 6 months?.The storms so far have been weak and shallow.
Apology Blog accepted....(although I was not insulted)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is indicating a cut off low in the area when the gulf system nears land..A lot can change with this.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22618
Quoting 37. DavidHOUTX:
Whatever does develop this week into the weekend, I really hope it comes to TX. We need the rain bad.


Wherever the models are pointing it out now, it wont go there, just the way it works.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.Here's my apology blog in case some missed
Link


BTW I don't blame the Euro for not picking up on storms.It probably prefers quantity over quality.Would you rather sniff out the next cat 5 in the Atlantic and get it right?.Or pick up on a weak storm that won't be remembered in 6 months?.The storms so far have been weak and shallow.


You are right about the Euro ... It may not have don't a great job with some weak TS this year but I think people are down on it just because its not seen storms that don't exist ... Once the Euro throws up a storm you can be pretty sure its gonna happen . It just doesn't have hype programmed into the software IMO
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997

Viewing: 89 - 39

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
22 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron