Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Viewing: 1939 - 1889

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Quoting 1934. LargoFl:
have no idea,what im looking at..but these runs take it a charleys path..


Basically all of the ensemble members are forecasting a track of whatever this mess in the Caribbean becomes on a path similar to that of Andrea which is track over the FL Big Bend area while just missing Tampa to the west.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 4438
Quoting 1933. trunkmonkey:


Yeah, the North Pole is ice covered, first time this early in years...

Whatever are you talking about? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 13 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 22.5N 89.0W AT 15/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
13/2100Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 13/1130Z.
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anyway I'm out til 1500 or 1530
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Quoting 1930. CybrTeddy:
Wunderweatherman123, how many times a day are you going to ask that question?
...and how many days in a row?
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
1934. LargoFl
have no idea,what im looking at..but these runs take it a charleys path..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Quoting 1771. StormTrackerScott:
Very cold night across the upper MidWest. I mean really 33 degrees in Minnesota in August? This cold air dips even further south Wednesday Night with lows in the 50's all the way down to Northern Miss, and NW Alabama.



Yeah, the North Pole is ice covered, first time this early in years, also most of the migratory birds in my area are already gone!
Just waiting for the Sandhill cranes.

I'm watching the trees the chlorophyll is leaving the leaves in some of the trees, this usually doesn't occur until September.
The burning bushes are turning red already, another indication of an early winter.
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Quoting 1851. StormTrackerScott:
The Best thing about watching the Tropical Updates when Dr. Steve Lyons was at TWC was he alawys gave you a surf update as he loved to surf.


Dr. Steve Lyons is a cool guy, how many people who have doctorates in a physical science like to surf?
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Quoting 1914. scott39:
Im not say at all, the AOI that the NHC has at 10% and the probability of 30% in 48 hours,where it may organize, and the model track to the N Gulf Coast....will be similar to a Camille. What was really interesting to me is that Camille became a TC in about the same place in the Caribbean on 8/14/69--8/22/69 and tracked Northward to strike Miss. as a Cat 5.


Respect, Scott. Three or four days ago this would have been a good post. I made a similar post then, too, but today, it's hype. We have nothing but a marginal surface low in proximity to land and running out of room, and under considerable shear.
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Wunderweatherman123, how many times a day are you going to ask that question?
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Quoting 1921. Grothar:


wnw or ne?
wnw/nw/n/nne/ne that's how systems round the ridge.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 1826. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Sunrise in Lantana, Florida - looking over the Intracoastal Waterway.

It was still a little dark out when I noticed a stick in the neighbor's driveway that looked remarkably like a lizard...

...and in fact, turned out to be a lizard, a Knight Anole to be precise. Also sometimes called a Cuban Lizard, as that's where the species originates. Florida is the most susceptible state in the Union for invasive species; pretty much anything that shows up here flourishes. This guy stayed rigid while I took a few pics before he ran (very fast) up the tree you see behind him.


Dexter peeks up through the boards at his favorite crabbing spot under the neighbor's boat dock.

I came, I saw Ibis...

White Ibis on a wire. We call 'em 'The Aerators' due to their predilection for finding food by poking holes in the lawn. They show up in gangs that Dexter longs to run through and make fly.

No rain again yesterday, but chances on Thursday went from 40 to 50 to now 60%. So, probably won't rain on Thursday.


Another very hot, humid day on tap here. Have a great day all, and...
blog on!


I like these little updates of life in your area, I see you have an interest in wildlife as well. Meteorology has always been my greatest focus, but ever since I kid I've always enjoyed studying and observing wildlife.
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Quoting 1918. FOREX:


So no worries then?
It is just his opinion and he gives very good reasoning of the current situation and what he expects to happen. I have my reasons as to why I think it will develop and take a track more into the GOM and then turn towards the Northeast. I said earlier that the ULL over the Yucatan would begin to slide off to the west another ULL is east of the Bahamas and will also move in tandem with this system. In actuality both ULL's one to the east and one to the west could provide very good ventilation for the system to have good outflow. On top of that the GFS is showing an anti-cyclone developing over it.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1926. LargoFl
what is..supercell consensus?...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
1925. Grothar
Quoting 1912. moonlightcowboy:
TAFB dissipates the sfc low in 72 hours. Yup, makes sense given the current lack of rotating consolidation and prevailing inhibiting factors of shear, land proximity and high pressure north of the system. However, it also shows a cutoff low over the FL panhandle from the front that may push out into the northern GoM. I think Skye alluded to this yesterday. IMO, this is a considerably more viable scenario than a Caribbean/GoM threat from P16L.



I wrote the same thing last night between Round 2 and Round 3 of the Levi-Drak bout.
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Quoting 1914. scott39:
Im not say at all, the AOI that the NHC has at 10% and the probability of 30% in 48 hours,where it may organize, and the model track to the N Gulf Coast....will be similar to a Camille. What was really interesting to me is that Camille became a TC in about the same place in the Caribbean on 8/14/69--8/22/69 and tracked Northward to strike Miss. as a Cat 5.
Hmmm...can you find any info as to what the SST and windshear was like back then in the GOM ahead of Camille? Would be intersting to compare those conditions.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS NOT AS MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. THE GFS...ALONG WITH THE
CANADIAN...REMAIN THE ONLY MODELS INDICATING THE MOVEMENT OF LOW
PRES INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BUT THE
GFS IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN EARLIER. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND RENDERING A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY ON THE LOW THAN IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. STILL
CALLING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH UP TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND.
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1922. scott39
Go check out Camilles developement, time of year, and track of 1969.
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1921. Grothar
Quoting 1917. GTstormChaserCaleb:
As the system gets closer to the Western Caribbean the ridge will begin to break down and the steering will turn more to the wnw/nw as it rounds the ridge and feels the influence from the deep layered trough. Bonnie and Charley in 2004 are good examples of this.


wnw or ne?
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1920. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
1919. Grothar
At this time, it is very unlikely that the system would move west, even once it is in the Gulf. The high in 3 days will not extend that far east and a trough should be in place which would draw any system to the North and East.





The GFS has the faster solution of moving it North, but I am hesitant to follow that at this time until the system gets stronger.

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1918. FOREX
Quoting 1912. moonlightcowboy:
TAFB dissipates the sfc low in 72 hours. Yup, makes sense given the current lack of rotating consolidation and prevailing inhibiting factors of shear, land proximity and high pressure north of the system. However, it also shows a cutoff low over the FL panhandle from the front that may push out into the northern GoM. I think Skye alluded to this yesterday. IMO, this is a considerably more viable scenario than a Caribbean/GoM threat from P16L.



So no worries then?
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As the system gets closer to the Western Caribbean the ridge will begin to break down and the steering will turn more to the wnw/nw as it rounds the ridge and feels the influence from the deep layered trough. Bonnie and Charley in 2004 are good examples of this.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Yawwwwwwn, looks at tropics......Nuttin
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It seems that the area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean has been stationary as it starts to interact with the wave. Seeing as though it has been more persistent as its under more favorable conditions it may become dominant and get drawn up to around 15N and consolidate a little later this evening. If this can develop before reaching the Yucatan we may have a pretty potent system tha what the GFS indicates.



Once its north of the Yucatan you have a weak high to its west and another to its east will create a squeeze play situation where our system may just stall before another shortwave over the Central US amplifies the weak and gets it to budge and go North/NNE towards the Panhandle a complex situation but if it struggles it will likely tuck underneath the death ridge.
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1914. scott39
Im not say at all, the AOI that the NHC has at 10% and the probability of 30% in 48 hours,where it may organize, and the model track to the N Gulf Coast....will be similar to a Camille. What was really interesting to me is that Camille became a TC in about the same place in the Caribbean on 8/14/69--8/22/69 and tracked Northward to strike Miss. as a Cat 5.
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Quoting 1898. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would keep an eye on the Central Atlantic next week for the possibility of development as some of the GFS ensemble members are showing lowering pressures there.





I hope the fantasy will turn true XD
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TAFB dissipates the sfc low in 72 hours. Yup, makes sense given the current lack of rotating consolidation and prevailing inhibiting factors of shear, land proximity and high pressure north of the system. However, it also shows a cutoff low over the FL panhandle from the front that may push out into the northern GoM. I think Skye alluded to this yesterday. IMO, this is a considerably more viable scenario than a Caribbean/GoM threat from P16L.

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I hate the kind of track the CMC is showing! I want a track so we can GET RAIN!!!! Something like 19N 62W at the closest (if the storm is a major).
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Even a TD would be awful here right now. Just some strong gusts are going to topple trees in already saturated ground.
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Quoting 1856. wunderweatherman123:
alot of experts expect an active season, do you find it strange the GFS model doesnt show anything in the eastern atlantic as we head into late august given the conditions forecasted?
Do you base the entire season on just the GFS model? We are not even at the peak of the season yet. How many storms "should we have had" this year by now, in your opinion? ...and how many storms should we have this year in total?
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
Quoting 1894. LargoFl:


Nothing in the Caribbean, wow...
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1907. pcola57
Quoting 1901. LargoFl:
So if it does become a TS what happens?.......................Tropical Storm
Winds: 39-73 mph
At this point, the system is given a name to identify and track it.Damage done to only the flimsiest lean-to type structures. Unsecured light signs blown down, minor damage to trees and bushes. Some small dead limbs, ripe coconuts, and dead palm fronds blown from trees. Some fragile and tender green leaves blown from trees.

Source: WeatherDictionary.com, Notes: saffir simpson scale


Ahh Largo..
But it is the moisture I'm looking at..
Over and over this year so far again in my part of the GOM..
Infrastructure will suffer as this place has been growing at an alarming rate..
Many,many folks have never experienced a T/C..
I'm afraid that will show up in the mortality rates..
Progress is slow on infrastructure here..
They like to build tourist attractions instead.. :(
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Just wait till the potential TS , or a Hurricane in the NW Carribean , hits the Herbert box,then watch out , just saying we could be looking at RI !
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1905. VR46L
Quoting 1899. SouthernIllinois:
Still waiting Xyrus2000. Still waiting...


I doubt you will get a response to that question ....LOL
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nice tropical wave will be a invest soon and a big high on the east coast.. bad setup altogether I do not like it at all.
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Quoting 1891. MisterPerfect:
The tropical wave is pulling inflow from the monsoon low, let's see if a low develops there.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
You can sure see the PEEPS that get the negative stuff as their post are now being hidden...PLAY NICE EVERYONE...be back late tonite. I expect an Invest coming late this evening as well.
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1901. LargoFl
So if it does become a TS what happens?.......................Tropical Storm
Winds: 39-73 mph
At this point, the system is given a name to identify and track it.Damage done to only the flimsiest lean-to type structures. Unsecured light signs blown down, minor damage to trees and bushes. Some small dead limbs, ripe coconuts, and dead palm fronds blown from trees. Some fragile and tender green leaves blown from trees.

Source: WeatherDictionary.com, Notes: saffir simpson scale
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Quoting 1884. ILwthrfan:


I'm leaning weaker. It's going to take quite a while for that mess to consolidate into a closed low pressure. We have 2 different disturbances combining into one, with one being monsoonal in nature. NHC is at 10%-48 hrs, and 30% 120 hrs. I'm thinking buy the time we are at 120 hours we may be within a 70-80% of a tropical depression developing within 48 hours or after it emerges from the Yucatan.


Well....weaker keeps it south!!! We shall see what happens. SHEAR is the main PROBLEM!
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I would keep an eye on the Central Atlantic next week for the possibility of development as some of the GFS ensemble members are showing lowering pressures there.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1897. VR46L
Quoting 1879. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS is not the only model though, other models are showing development in the Central Atlantic as early as in 7 days with the CMC being the most bullish. The GFS also has its flaws in the long range developing ghost storms and sometimes not showing any storms only to show a storm in the short range. Season is about to get cranked up here all indications point to that, especially with the lowering MSLP and upward motion of the MJO in our basin.

My personal favorite model the FIM is showing development in the Central Atlantic as does the CMC:





LOL!! You just love that Model ...

But the Euro and UKMET have a similar opinion to the gfs on this disturbance.. and thats 3 of the more skilled models ...
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NOT GOOD in the ALREADY FULLY saturated grounds!

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nice tropical wave here!
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1894. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
1893. VR46L
Quoting 1874. wunderkidcayman:
MIMIC TPW maps haven't been updating since 12th 07Z


You are right , Didn't notice till you said it !

Wonder is that why there is no windsat data for today as well ...
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1892. LargoFl





















Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140
Quoting 1881. pcola57:


Morning Kristina40..
Looks like you gonna get even more rain..
As am I.. :(



We've had so much rain the past 40+ days here in the Panhandle, that I'm actually finding frogs in the house who are just trying to dry out....
Member Since: June 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
1889. FOREX
Quoting 1878. hurricanes2018:
I think you are right


Does it look like a westward motion though or is that just an illusion because of the thunderstorms to the NE?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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