Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Quoting 155. AussieStorm:
Some photo's from the Philippines....
















Labuyo%u2019s downpour also caused flooding around 8 a.m. Monday in Barangay Baloganon, Masinloc, Zambales. Residents had to climb the second floor of their houses. Water continued to rise at 10 a.m.

Flood water was also on the rise Monday morning in Barangay Guisguis, Sta. Cruz, Zambales, where residents climbed to their rooftops.

In Masagana, Dilasag, Aurora, %u201CLabuyo%u201D caused trees to fall. One branch even got caught in an electrical post.

There were also flood water in Caba, La Union%u2019s Barangay San Jose, Barangay Santiago Sur, and Barangay San Carlo.
They really shouldn't be playing around in the water like that! Disgusting.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
Definitely more east this run. I am willing to bet this takes the same track that TS Arlene took back in June.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Quoting 184. ncstorm:
Precip up to 144 hours..that is a lot of rain..

this is going to be bad flooding wise, no matter if it developes or not, those folks are water logged already, the front will give more rain, then the tropical moisture gets there..gee.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Panning out the view the West Coast of Africa continues to remain active, so a storm there soon is not out of the question.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS Precip up to 144 hours..that is a lot of rain..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:
I said last week this system in the Caribbean reminds me of Charley as in orlando we had 3 days of hot dry weather before a strong trough moved in and steered him into SW FL. One thing of note which I found interesting as the eye of Charley approached Orlando was the sharp temperature drop as it actually felt cool outside about an hour before the eye moved over Orlando. Temps went from 78 in the outer rain bands to 69 as the eye moved in. I wonder what the cause of that was or is that the case when such strong hurricanes roll in?


I may be completely wrong here (and correct me if I am), but doesn't air inside the eye sink from the upper atmosphere down to the lower atmosphere? Air is obviously colder the higher elevation you go, and maybe because of that cold air the temperature is lowered while in the eye.

I'm thinking The Day After Tomorrow ... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 158. DavidHOUTX:


Oh just great. Exactly what we need. More drier air and no rain..


Right now it looks like we'll have to watch the EPAC for a basin jumper like Hermine. It doesn't look like any of our homegrown stuff will be able to come West to TX.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile 12z NAVGEM is out to 12 hrs.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 103. ncstorm:
any landfalling system like what the GFS is showing can produce tornados well inland..example..Ivan..from Wikipedia..

The Hurricane Ivan tornado outbreak was a three-day tornado outbreak that was associated with the passage of Hurricane Ivan across the Southern United States starting on September 15, 2004 across the Gulf Coast states of Alabama and Florida as well as southern Georgia before ending in the Middle Atlantic Coast on September 18. The outbreak killed at least 7 people and injured dozens of people across several states from Florida to Pennsylvania. The hurricane itself killed at least 90 people from the US to the eastern Caribbean Islands. Overall it produced 119 tornadoes surpassing the record of 117 that was previously held by Hurricane Beulah during the 1967 Atlantic hurricane season. Ivan also produced 16 more tornadoes than Hurricane Frances which struck most of the same regions (the tornado outbreak) about ten days earlier.


He was a wild Hurricane. The first U.S. fatality was due to one of the tornadoes that hit Panama City Beach. Brings back nightmares....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Nearing the Panhandle in 5 days.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.Here's my apology blog in case some missed
Link


BTW I don't blame the Euro for not picking up on storms.It probably prefers quantity over quality.Would you rather sniff out the next cat 5 in the Atlantic and get it right?.Or pick up on a weak storm that won't be remembered in 6 months?.The storms so far have been weak and shallow.
No worries on the Florida resentment. If you said something, it would be forgiven(but don't do it again!) Keep up the great posts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:
System trying to organize. I suspect raise to 10% at 2pm is coming.



That loop shows it quite well, seems the wave may be starting to take shape.

Already 93 here, heat index of near 110 expected later today. Gonna be a hot one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
173. MahFL
Spinning up !

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 169. MisterPerfect:


sure did. I remember that well. Was caught in Kissimmee for Charley. Same thing happened with Wilma the next year. Seems to be a normal occurrence, imo.


I wonder why? Is it because of the strong winds because when Charley's eye moved in we had 110 mph winds which ripped apart nearly all the trees in my neighborhood.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Weighted heavily to the East, so there must be shearing involved from the cold front.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:
I said last week this system in the Caribbean reminds me of Charley as in orlando we had 3 days of hot dry weather before a strong trough moved in and steered him into SW FL. One thing of note which I found interesting as the eye of Charley approached Orlando was the sharp temperature drop as it actually felt cool outside about an hour before the eye moved over Orlando. Temps went from 78 in the outer rain bands to 69 as the eye moved in. I wonder what the cause of that was or is that the case when such strong hurricanes roll in?


sure did. I remember that well. Was caught in Kissimmee for Charley. Same thing happened with Wilma the next year. Seems to be a normal occurrence, imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 166. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well now it gets going and looks like it slows down considerably.



Much further east too.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Quoting 159. mitchelace5:


Where is the system organizing?


Just north of Panama.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Well now it gets going and looks like it slows down considerably.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Quoting 40. RitaEvac:


Wherever the models are pointing it out now, it wont go there, just the way it works.


What region has received the most rainfall over the last three months? I'm sure it will end up there. :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty straight forward steering here if a system were to be in the SE Gulf at 96 hours.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37103
I said last week this system in the Caribbean reminds me of Charley as in orlando we had 3 days of hot dry weather before a strong trough moved in and steered him into SW FL. One thing of note which I found interesting as the eye of Charley approached Orlando was the sharp temperature drop as it actually felt cool outside about an hour before the eye moved over Orlando. Temps went from 78 in the outer rain bands to 69 as the eye moved in. I wonder what the cause of that was or is that the case when such strong hurricanes roll in?
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Doesn't look like much in the way of windshear so I don't know why the GFS is being conservative in ramping this thing up as MLC posted in 146 the waters are plenty warm enough, so I must be missing something here?



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:
System trying to organize. I suspect raise to 10% at 2pm is coming.



It does have that look about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:
System trying to organize. I suspect raise to 10% at 2pm is coming.



Where is the system organizing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 153. nofailsafe:
Regarding the TW in the Caribbean:

Area Forecast Discussion from the Houston-Galveston Forecast Office:

LASTLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NW CARIB ON THUR AND MOVES IT INTO INTO THE GULF FRI/SAT.
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE N GULF FOR THE
WEEKEND...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP TROPICALLY IT WILL BE IN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS FL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT OVERALL NOT
MUCH OF A CONCERN.


Oh just great. Exactly what we need. More drier air and no rain..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
System trying to organize. I suspect raise to 10% at 2pm is coming.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2375
Quoting 135. weathermanwannabe:
I think the Blog ate a recent post of mine but here is the European link again for the Africa Satt loop to keep an eye on the continental waves. As noted, regardless of how good the wave train looks over land, they have to transition to the water near the Cape Verde Islands into the ITCZ and continue the journey across the Atlantic.

Link

The "switch" (multiple viable waves emerging and being developed by the long-range models) has not been thrown yet but it will within the next two to three week time frame. That transition to the switch usually only takes 2-4 days as the ITCZ suddenly fills in between Africa and the Caribbean; just keep an eye on the MJO and ITCZ as it nears the 10N mark; happens every year in the mid-to-late August time frame.




Remember, climo is just an average of events over some time period, and the 'climo-window' can slide forward and backward in time from some mean period. Unfortunately, hurricane season will still happen this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some photo's from the Philippines....
















Labuyo%u2019s downpour also caused flooding around 8 a.m. Monday in Barangay Baloganon, Masinloc, Zambales. Residents had to climb the second floor of their houses. Water continued to rise at 10 a.m.

Flood water was also on the rise Monday morning in Barangay Guisguis, Sta. Cruz, Zambales, where residents climbed to their rooftops.

In Masagana, Dilasag, Aurora, %u201CLabuyo%u201D caused trees to fall. One branch even got caught in an electrical post.

There were also flood water in Caba, La Union%u2019s Barangay San Jose, Barangay Santiago Sur, and Barangay San Carlo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 144. hydrus:
Yep..Cant believe it will be 9 years tomorrow..already..



Hurricane Charley making landfall on the west coast of Florida on August 13,2004.


And it was a Friday... Friday the 13th
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding the TW in the Caribbean:

Area Forecast Discussion from the Houston-Galveston Forecast Office:

LASTLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NW CARIB ON THUR AND MOVES IT INTO INTO THE GULF FRI/SAT.
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE N GULF FOR THE
WEEKEND...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP TROPICALLY IT WILL BE IN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS FL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT OVERALL NOT
MUCH OF A CONCERN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr Masters.My question is that you have that Bopha was the second deadliest tropical cyclone in the Philippines but in the link you provide they have Bopha as number 9 with 1,146 deads.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look who may go if needed on Tuesday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 12 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely taking its time to come together on the GFS but the area of concentration seems to be through the Yucatan Channel on this run.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698
Quoting 118. Grothar:


I don't know how he knows, but he always comes on.


Hey Gro, fixed my problem, when Chrome crashed and I had to go back to explorer, I paused the real-time blog updating, then re-installed Chrome, so far everything's much faster, knock on wood. I was unable to 'mess' with real-time sidebar while on Chrome, could only do it with explorer.

So glad the TX coast is finally getting wet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 132. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Does it go out further in time?

That was it at the time. That model runs much later than the others. Finished now. Panhandle Saturday morning..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Typhoon Labuyo leaves behind death, devastation

MANILA (UPDATE 5) – At least 3 people have died because of Typhoon Labuyo (international name Utor), authorities said Monday.

A man was killed during a landslide triggered by strong rains in Baguio City, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said.

Joemar Salicon, 22, was cleaning a canal in Barangay Irisan at around 8:30 a.m. on Monday when he was buried under the rubble.

Salicon was brought to Baguio General Hospital but was pronounced dead on arrival by doctors.

Another person was reported injured during a landslide in Ifugao, authorities said.

Meanwhile, two people were killed in Casiguran, Aurora, according to town Mayor Ricardo Bitong.

He said 16 others were injured.

The town, where Labuyo made landfall early Monday morning, has been placed under a state of calamity.

Bitong said the typhoon damaged 95% of infrastructure in the town.

He said they have yet to get information from 16 barangays that have become isolated.

The town engineering office has started clearing roads but lack heavy equipment.

Bitong is not sure when they will be able to clear the roads, and supplies will have to be brought by boat or by air.

He said it would take at least a week to restore power in Casiguran.

Scores still missing

Meanwhile, the NDRRMC said as of 6 p.m., seven fishermen from Camarines Norte and 6 from Bolinao, Pangasinan were missing.

The NDRRMC said the 51 fishermen earlier reported missing in Catanduanes and 7 others in Camarines Norte are all safe and have been accounted for.

Local rescue personnel said search and rescue operations for the missing fishermen are ongoing.

Capt. Gina Daet of the Armed Forces' Northern Luzon Command told ANC that based on their records, two people are missing in Casiguran, Aurora, 13 are missing in Baguio City, and 6 are missing in Bolinao as of 7 p.m. Monday night.

Daet said they are now receiving calls mostly for evacuation and rescue of typhoon victims.

At least 1,895 people in 19 villages and 6 municipalities and a city in Regions 3, 5, and the Cordillera Administrative Regions have been displaced by the typhoon.

At least 673 homes were damaged in Aurora.

The typhoon also left stranded at least 1,123 passengers, 6 vessels, and 8 motor boats.

Around 17 roads were not passable and 13 power outages occured in Regions 2, 3 and CAR.

As of 5pm Monday, PAGASA said typhoon "Labuyo" has intensified and gotten bigger, but will be out of the Philippine area of responsibility by Tuesday afternoon.

The typhoon was last spotted 230km northwest of Baguio City, moving northwest 24kph with maximum winds of 150kph and gustiness of 185kph.

Signal No. 1 is raised over the following areas: Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Ilocos Norte, Pampanga, Bataan and Zambales.

Signal No. 2: Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan.

Rains are still expected in southern Luzon and western Visayas due to the enhanced southwest monsoon or habagat.

Strongest typhoon this year

Labuyo was the strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines so far this year and the most powerful worldwide since Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) in September 2012 that hit Japan, according to the UK's Met Office.
The UK Met Office added that around 217mm of rainfall fell in 30 hours in Dagupan, Pangasinan.

The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission on Monday said some areas of Labuyo had a rainfall rate of over 73mm per hour as the typhoon exited Luzon and headed towards the West Philippine Sea.

For comparison, Category 5 super typhoon Pablo, which hit Mindanao last year, carried 80mm rainfall per hour before landfall. Tropical storm Ondoy, meanwhile, had a rainfall rate of 56mm per hour.

Labuyo is expected to hit southern China next in about two days, according to weather agencies.

Aurora province, 343 km northeast of the capital Manila, suffered the worst damage from Labuyo, after the typhoon set off landslides that blocked its only access road.

"About 90 percent of our agriculture was destroyed or damaged, particularly rice and corn crops and coconut plantations," Aurora governor Gerardo Noveras told ANC television, adding that the full extent of damage was still unknown.

"We have restored power and communications in some towns, and we're ready to deliver relief goods to affected families."

He said Casiguran and another coastal town were still isolated.

Television showed images of devastation ranging from uprooted trees and fallen lamp-posts to tangled power lines and flattened houses. Most mountain roads were blocked by boulders and loosened soil.

By Tuesday, the typhoon, the twelfth tropical cyclone this year, will have crossed Philippine borders and head for southern China, officials said.

Schools in the capital and most parts of Luzon were closed while two local carriers suspended 18 domestic flights. Sea travel halted and commuter buses were stalled.

About 20 typhoons hit the Philippines every year, often bringing death and destruction. A state of national calamity was declared last December after typhoon Bopha killed more than 700 people in the resource-rich south, but most storms make landfall further north. - with reports from Raffy Santos, ABS-CBN News; ANC; Reuters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good discussion last evening/morning on the nightshift! ;) GT, gave you some good kudos for your "discernment" in #31 in this new blog this morning. (And, see #23 too.)

Shear can be a killer, but systems with strong vorticity and maybe with an anticyclone over warm waters can fight off upper level winds. Let's not forget the rocketfuel factor as this or any other system approaches the northwest Caribbean where there's extremely high TCHP, and then look at the Loop Current, the large eddy that's about to pinch away from the loop, and all the other warm eddys around the GoM. Remember, models consistently have trouble with intensity. It's the tropics - strange, peculiar things can happen! ;)


TCHP in the northwest Caribbean





LOOP CURRENT and EDDYS



Tropics are heating up now. Gonna be plenty to follow soon enough. Y'all play nice and have a great day! :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
Quoting 125. CybrTeddy:


Exactly. If all the experts are saying it, I believe it.
i dont believe anyone. i believe in what i see in my EYES and BRAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 131. Grothar:


I can't leave the blog quiet when I take my nap. Besides, every time my bananas grow wild like this year, we have an active season.


Yep..Cant believe it will be 9 years tomorrow..already..



Hurricane Charley making landfall on the west coast of Florida on August 13,2004.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 120. LargoFl:
gee I sure hope it somehow goes to Texas where they really need this rain,for sure florida does Not.


Actually we've dried out some area wide the last couple weeks. While ground water is high from very intense rainfall over a large region for weeks, the mean rainfall over the area the past 2 weeks is actually below normal for some of the area. Although some places have still been soaked, many have not. Remember this is August, its normal to get a very large amount of rain in Florida.

Personally I'll take more action, I don't want to see dry weather again unless it comes in October into November along with cooler refreshing temps.

Hopefully Texas will get more rainfall is well, but a deep trough in the southeast typically does not not lead to such.

What they need is a deep trough to carve out in the southern plains with a blocking high over the northeast and Ohio valley, THAT pattern would bring the prolonged heavy rainfall Texas needs.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
Quoting 129. hydrus:
There is still a bit of dry air in the MDR, but nothing like it was...Dry air will be out of the picture soon, just in time for the the very large and vigorous wave to take advantage of the situation.


Hi hydrus. You still maintain the talk about this disturbance being the best TC in Atlantic so far in 2013? Surely looks good now and as you said,less dry air down the road to work with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The area of low level vorticity suggests that a surface low is developing just east of 10n: 80w. There is a sign of convection developing over the strengthening vorticity associated with the monsoonal trough. Convection shows signs of some circulation developing in 5-10 knots of wind shear. SSTs are warm underneath the surface low. I give this area roughly 30% chance of development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 130. PanhandleChuck:


The models have been pretty good this year, even before storms have developed. Just sayin


Yes they have.....how many times have the models showed something and nothing happened. This year they show nothing and nothing happens...Lets see what happens with this possibility coming.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
27 hrs.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7698

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
54 °F
Partly Cloudy