Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 239 - 189

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Quoting 225. seminolesfan:


Seriously?

I mean, really? Anyone that cares at all about reading this blog, which should be everyone that posts, should have that answer with just a day or two of lurking.



Look at the date he joined and his question. We all know who this is. He mispronounced threat. It should read threater.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 232. Tropicsweatherpr:


That is an errie map without any Cyclones in MDR after Mid August.
It could only mean one thing, since those waters have yet to be tapped a monster could be in the making for September. There is plenty of ACE to be accumulated and plenty of potential energy out there.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8460
Quoting 183. Thrawst:


I may be completely wrong here (and correct me if I am), but doesn't air inside the eye sink from the upper atmosphere down to the lower atmosphere? Air is obviously colder the higher elevation you go, and maybe because of that cold air the temperature is lowered while in the eye.

I'm thinking The Day After Tomorrow ... lol


Well actually physics says sinking air causes compressional heating. In fact its the science behind the deathly hot and humid summer upper ridge, and its also the same principle as taking a lid and putting it over a pot of boiling water.

What then actually would cause this cooling? My hypothesis is that since the hurricane is over land and well removed from its energy source and is now in a state of decay, we have to consider what is taking place with the inner core structure. Now, at say 850 mpb, clearly a hurricane overland is still very much warm core, that is, the inner core being warmer than its surrounding area.

However, at ground level, we might be seeing something a bit different, why? Well since the hurricane is removed from its energy source, we could possibly treat the surface of the inner core like a cold pool from persistent thunderstorms since that is what is taking place.


Lets remember that convection in the inner core of a hurricane is often easily attains 50,000 ft, since the hurricane is removed from its energy source, its likely a cold pool at the surface occurred behind the eye wall convection due to heavy precipitation loading.

Although Charley wasn't known for rainfall amounts because it was fast moving and small, its inner core actually dumped an incredible amount of rain in a very short time as inner core convection often does. This intense precip will cause significantly cooler air at the surface to pool.


When hurricanes first make landfall or are encountered at sea, the opposite is often the case because the hurricanes "engine" is still functioning properly. Warmer air is often found in the eye at landfall or out at sea, especially with strong hurricane due to a cleared eye and strong sinking air.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 228. Patrap:
; )


As Disney World execs go bonkers trying to control the negative press... tourists jumping for their lives!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 219. Donteven:

My lake would disagree with you... still 5 to 6 feet below where it should be.


I'd gladly give you that from our lake! It's so high it's almost at dock level (record). I've lost several feet in the backyard. Maybe a very long hose and a siphon :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
234. MahFL
All the time the blob is moving WNW away from the higher shear and away from land...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 229. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Got a weak system at 189 hrs. but it is already pulling too far north.



With it forming north of the CV islands, would that mean an early recurve?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
More studies need to be done into the SAL and as to why the activity is being supressed in the Atlantic this is characteristics of an El Nino, but the indexes don't show that in fact they show neutral ENSO to weak La-Nina. The ridge is not really that strong either, so how is this dust continuously pushing into the Atlantic in fact the high is displaced far north and the highest heights is 1026 mb.






That is an errie map without any Cyclones in MDR after Mid August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CMC has started..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
this is NOT good..flooding wise.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
Got a weak system at 189 hrs. but it is already pulling too far north.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8460
; )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 82. Patrap:
Sinkhole collapses Disney-area resort
Lake County firefighters said no one was injured.


By Arelis R. Hernández, Eloisa Gonzalez and Stephen Hudak, Orlando Sentinel
11:05 a.m. EDT, August 12, 2013

First came the cracking sounds. Then windows started blowing out. And before they knew it, guests felt the ground beneath their Lake County resort near Disney World sink into the ground.

Guests had only 10 to 15 minutes to escape the collapsing buildings at the Summer Bay Resort on U.S. Highway 192 in the Four Corners area, located about 7 miles west of Walt Disney World resort, where a large sinkhole — about 60 feet in diameter and 15 feet deep — opened in the earth late Sunday.

No one was injured but about three dozen resort goers left behind car keys, medication and other personal belongings inside their luxury condominiums after the crumbling edifices were evacuated.


"My heart sunk. I was sick to my stomach," said resort president Paul Caldwell after getting a call about 10:30 p.m. from his staff that the 15-year-old buildings full of guests were sinking into the ground.

"No doubt there would've been injuries if they hadn't gotten the building evacuated," he said during a live news conference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 225. seminolesfan:


Seriously?

I mean, really? Anyone that cares at all about reading this blog, which should be everyone that posts, should have that answer with just a day or two of lurking.



Just asking, no need to get ticked off, man. Just chill
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 216. mitchelace5:
Does the steering pattern looks threatening for Florida this year?


Seriously?

I mean, really? Anyone that cares at all about reading this blog, which should be everyone that posts, should have that answer with just a day or two of lurking.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tropical storms are food for sink holes...

8/12/2013-florida-resort-sinkhole

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
More studies need to be done into the SAL and as to why the activity is being supressed in the Atlantic this is characteristics of an El Nino, but the indexes don't show that in fact they show neutral ENSO to weak La-Nina. The ridge is not really that strong either, so how is this dust continuously pushing into the Atlantic in fact the high is displaced far north and the highest heights is 1026 mb.




Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8460
sits there sat-sunday then monday begins to pull away..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
Quoting 218. georgevandenberghe:


The DC area has had a lot of opportunities for rain in the past five weeks that have not panned out and we're actually getting fairly dry in many areas (not all, some have lucked out with thunderstorms).

Maybe tomorrow 8/13 ??
This dry out that we've been having is actually good.Stops sever flooding problems later on down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
up to 186 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
Quoting 211. trey33:


No no no - central florida does NOT need any more rain. we are totally and completely saturated, and there isn't anywhere rain from a TD or TS could go.

My lake would disagree with you... still 5 to 6 feet below where it should be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:
It's easy to pick out the position of the Bermuda High here.



The DC area has had a lot of opportunities for rain in the past five weeks that have not panned out and we're actually getting fairly dry in many areas (not all, some have lucked out with thunderstorms).

Maybe tomorrow 8/13 ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is scary, it sits over the same area over 24 hours...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
Does the steering pattern looks threatening for Florida this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 195. mitchelace5:


If that pans out, would the rain bands affect central and southern Florida?


A large system like that can bring rain to all of Florida even without developing. The only inhibitors for this not to develop or strengthen that much would be its large size and a upper trough bringing cool weather to the Southern states may some SW shear along with it; keeping all the convection east of the system which is still put it over Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 206. StormTrackerScott:


somebody may get 20" of rain out of this set up.


I was about to say the same thing..we are already above normal for rainfall..this would further weaken the soil and bring down trees and cause power outages for a lot of people who have already seen more than average rainfall this year..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
00 GFS HR 84 FRI AUG 16

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's easy to pick out the position of the Bermuda High here.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3349
Quoting 197. StormWx:


Thanks Jeff! My guess is this system will likely hit Central Florida? Most likely will pass right over you? :-)


No no no - central florida does NOT need any more rain. we are totally and completely saturated, and there isn't anywhere rain from a TD or TS could go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
Quoting 202. ncstorm:


the moisture is feeding up to the coastal plains of NC/SC bringing us in the ugly pink situation...
simply amazing the rainfall these last few months, drought conditions are gone in the southeast huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
Quoting 48. TampaSpin:
The Shear Forecast for the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the next 48hrs is still very high for anything to organize very quickly. Unless this Shear drops I don't see much happening...Watch the Shear....it will tell us if anything develops!



That why it has a near 0% chance in the next 48 hours however by 78 hours shear starts to lower and a more anticyclonic flow takes over:



Very high TCHP may help deepen it a little faster and fire up some deep convection so DMAX/DMIN might not have a huge affect on organizing like Dorian was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 202. ncstorm:


the moisture is feeding up to the coastal plains of NC/SC bringing us in the ugly pink situation...


somebody may get 20" of rain out of this set up.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3349
Quoting 194. gator23:


Andrea, you mean Andrea. Go drink coffee


Thanks guys:)
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3349
Quoting 178. stormhawg:


He was a wild Hurricane. The first U.S. fatality was due to one of the tornadoes that hit Panama City Beach. Brings back nightmares....


I remember well. My home was clipped by a tornado on the east end of Dauphin Island and essentially destroyed. Back to lurking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
XX/XX/XX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 187. LargoFl:
this is going to be bad flooding wise, no matter if it developes or not, those folks are water logged already, the front will give more rain, then the tropical moisture gets there..gee.


the moisture is feeding up to the coastal plains of NC/SC bringing us in the ugly pink situation...
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
you know..yesterday landfall was the mouth of mobile bay, today its Florida's panhandle..we around the gulf coast of florida had better keep a good eye on this one this week.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
C'mon one of these waves has to develop we're getting to that time of the year now.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8460
Quoting 191. MisterPerfect:


Charley was the second hurricane experience forme up until that point. The first being Andrew. However, in Charley I remember the sounds and smells, even the popping of the ears, that I recalled in Andrew. I knew Charley was a pretty strong sucker. After the storm, the third story apartment building where I was hunkered down was heavily damaged on the third floor...exterior wall was ripped off completely.

Now that I think about it, even Andrew's fury seemed pretty cold as we lost all second story windows in Coral Gables.

I'm no expert, but maybe strong hurricanes funnel out cold air from the upper atmosphere. As I said, Wilma was a cold hurricane, occurring in October...but Charley and Andrew were in August.


Where you not in Miami for Irene?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
System trying to organize. I suspect raise to 10% at 2pm is coming.



Thanks Jeff! My guess is this system will likely hit Central Florida? Most likely will pass right over you? :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just love this map of Levi's..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:
Definitely more east this run. I am willing to be this takes the same track that TS Arlene took back in June.



If that pans out, would the rain bands affect central and southern Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:
Definitely more east this run. I am willing to be this takes the same track that TS Arlene took back in June.



Andrea, you mean Andrea. Go drink coffee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:
Definitely more east this run. I am willing to be this takes the same track that TS Arlene took back in June.

You mean Andrea ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8460
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39338
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:


I wonder why? Is it because of the strong winds because when Charley's eye moved in we had 110 mph winds which ripped apart nearly all the trees in my neighborhood.


Charley was the second hurricane experience forme up until that point. The first being Andrew. However, in Charley I remember the sounds and smells, even the popping of the ears, that I recalled in Andrew. I knew Charley was a pretty strong sucker. After the storm, the third story apartment building where I was hunkered down was heavily damaged on the third floor...exterior wall was ripped off completely.

Now that I think about it, even Andrew's fury seemed pretty cold as we lost all second story windows in Coral Gables.

I'm no expert, but maybe strong hurricanes funnel out cold air from the upper atmosphere. As I said, Wilma was a cold hurricane, occurring in October...but Charley and Andrew were in August.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
I will eat my hat if this goes to Texas as some on here have been saying. It's shame too they need the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 155. AussieStorm:
Some photo's from the Philippines....
















Labuyo%u2019s downpour also caused flooding around 8 a.m. Monday in Barangay Baloganon, Masinloc, Zambales. Residents had to climb the second floor of their houses. Water continued to rise at 10 a.m.

Flood water was also on the rise Monday morning in Barangay Guisguis, Sta. Cruz, Zambales, where residents climbed to their rooftops.

In Masagana, Dilasag, Aurora, %u201CLabuyo%u201D caused trees to fall. One branch even got caught in an electrical post.

There were also flood water in Caba, La Union%u2019s Barangay San Jose, Barangay Santiago Sur, and Barangay San Carlo.
They really shouldn't be playing around in the water like that! Disgusting.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472

Viewing: 239 - 189

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.