Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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I think what scottsvb is saying is that the chance of a storm being in that position is under 2%. Which he is right because we really don't know what the future holds. Heck GFS tricked us with Dorians strength and we all thought the Cape Verde season was going to get going a month ago. However the GFS has and still is indicating that the season is about to get active. I can see 2-3 storms named by the beginning of September. It took 2010 a while to get going, it took 2004 to get going. This season will not be below average by any means. As you can tell I have been lurking and keeping up with all the nonsense posts with people saying "SAL and shear is too high to get the season going." What evidence do you have to say that? Especially when SAL and shear is winding down. Models are showing lower pressures and with lower pressures comes storms. I'm thinking 13-16 named storms this year, however we could have higher number. I doubt we get under 12 named storms with the conditions in place. The pattern has not changed and still supports long track storms to make it past 60W.
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The reason why ncstorm and others are posting the long range models is because the pattern is very favorable for Tropical Threats to the US.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 881
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Quoting 265. scottsvb:


But I do,...it's actually under 1% chance. Now that's not to say something will develop off that coastline in 7 or 10 or 14 days from now...we are getting into the prime development time of that area, but what a model shows us today vs 300hrs from now in that position and strength is irrelevant. Models are decent out to 72hrs... 120hrs at most. :)


You are right about fantasy at that hour, but you can see a lot of things from these runs, like the pattern ect...Also a lot of of GFS ensemble members are showing this actives strong's waves leaving Africa, so is not a waste of time, for sure,...
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Quoting 274. Tropicsweatherpr:


That is it. The pattern that a model shows on long range is important to watch,not the systems as every 6 hours they can change but the pattern can stick.


What pattern are you looking at? Systems come off Africa in a seasonal pattern, but if your looking at LR development, it's not accurate out past 120hrs.
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Quoting 278. CybrTeddy:


I stop at 144 personally, but it's fun to look at beyond 240 hours. While it serves absolutely no purpose with guidance and a specific cyclone, it's beginning to sniff out in the long range a pattern shift towards an active Cape Verde period towards the end of the month/September. I foresee 3-4 named storms this month.

The Gulf storm however will probably be similar to the previous Tropical Storm Erin in 2007.


We can only hope. I do believe models will be flip flopping on this until something is there. If I saw the GFS correctly, it seems the Subtropical High was moving further westward as what would be Erin was entering the Gulf.
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Sequel: News from inside the African wave train ...

With that an early good night as I caught a cold on Saturday staying at our German "tropical beach" at Rhine River. Seems we still have to catch up a bit to Florida temperature wise when there isn't a heat wave around ;)

Nigeria: We Lost 515 Houses in Kano Flood - Official
By Abdulsalam Muhammad, 12 August 2013

Kano: The Executive Secretary of Kano state Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation Agency, Alhaji Ali Bashir Monday confirmed that no fewer than 515 houses were lost to flood occasioned by heavy down pour in about 7 local Government areas of the state.

In a telephone chat with Vanguard, Ali Bashir stated that "there are increased fears that the figure might rise due to another heavy rain recorded weekend, and we are doing our best to contain the tide".

The Executive Secretary disclosed that a team of enumerators has been dispatched alongside NEMA official to ascertain the correct figure, stressing that "the report would enable take appropriate measure to cushion the effect on the affected people".

Ali Bashir revealed that all the 8 local council areas of the municipality were affected , while Warawa, Dawakin- kudu , and Dawakin Tofa local council were also hit by the natural disaster.

National Metrological Agency had for now listed Kano as one of the 14 states in the Northern region that would likely witnessed torrential rain with attendant flood in the next couple of weeks and event of the last few days seems to be confirming the prediction.

A torrential downpour that lasted 4 hours last Friday and a repeat of same Sunday left the state capital and adjourning local council areas prostrate in flood water aided by blocked drainages and bad environmental culture.


Several corpses unearthed by the rain had equally been re buried by official of the state Environment ministry, while conscious steps is been taken to fumigate the affected site to forestall likely outbreak of diseases.



Nigeria

Sudan: UN and Partners Coordinate Aid for 150,000 People Affected By Flooding
12 August 2013

United Nations agencies and humanitarian partners are coordinating closely with the Government of Sudan to assist close to 150,000 people get food, water and shelter following heavy rains that began early this month.

"More rains are expected in the coming days and the estimated number of affected people is likely to rise further as rains continue and as more information becomes available," the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said.
...


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Quoting 273. ncstorm:


or even capitalize it..

its all good folks..no one is forcing you to watch long range model runs..some of us on here do though..and if anyone on here tells me that the NHC or NWS says that they dont watch them, then tell me why are they there for viewing and dont tell me because they look pretty..


Its a tool. Professionals in any field know how to use their tools properly.

Non-professional roofers can obtain and use hammers.

It isn't the hammer's fault that your roof still has a leak.

Why did you use a 6 pound sledge hammer to nail down some loose tar paper?

I will never know.
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Its funny, when a LONG range GFS shows something hour 384, they say its something to watch and lets go~.
But when it shows nothing you guys tell me never to trust it that far out, and its completely wrong.

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GEM through 60 hrs.

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CMC at 60 hours
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Quoting 260. scottsvb:
Anything over 120hrs out is not worth looking at.


I stop at 144 personally, but it's fun to look at beyond 240 hours. While it serves absolutely no purpose with guidance, it's beginning to sniff out in the long range a pattern shift towards an active Cape Verde period towards the end of the month/September. The long range models in 2010 around this time were beginning to show the same exact thing. I foresee 3-4 named storms this month.

The Gulf storm however will probably be similar to the previous Tropical Storm Erin in 2007.
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12Z CMC

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NAVGEM flip-flopped now has the Northeast Gulf Coast:

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wow even NYC gets a piece of this.............
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Quoting 268. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually posting the longer range models I like to look at the pattern as well as the storms, just to get an idea of what we are going to be tackling once the peak comes around, but recurvatures are looking quite grim this year.


That is it. The pattern that a model shows on long range is important to watch,not the systems as every 6 hours they can change but the pattern can stick.
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Quoting 269. seminolesfan:


It is well documented that 300 hour model runs are HIGHLY prone to VERY LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT errors.

This is not an opinion based statement. Long range run output is very very likely to be totally WRONG.

Wrong like left shoe on the right foot....

Just plain WRONG!!! And it happens ALL THE TIME.

More likely to be wrong than right, by a large margin.

I wouldn't be scared to say wrong 9 times out of 10.


or even capitalize it..

its all good folks..no one is forcing you to watch long range model runs..some of us on here do though..and if anyone on here tells me that the NHC or NWS says that they dont watch them, then tell me why are they there for viewing and dont tell me because they look pretty..
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Quoting 271. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No we wouldn't.



uh...ok
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Quoting 261. scottsvb:
If we started June 1st and started to look at what the GFS showed over 300hrs out, we would be on the M or N storm by now

No we wouldn't.
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Looking back at hurricane seasons since 1995, when the active cycle began, August 20th (plus or minus a couple days) is really the line in the sand. All years since 1995 got going around that time, if they weren't already in full swing (except for 1997 which had 0 storms in August and had only 9 total storms).

I spoke with some of the hurricane experts, and they agree that the next 10 days or so are important. If we don't get at least a named system by that time (and especially by the end of the month), there may be something happening that the hurricane community experts don't understand. This means that the season may not be as active as they originally thought.

What could get us our storm that we "need" is the one the GFS has been showing. The GFS has been very persistent in developing a sheared storm, probably a subtropical storm in the 4-5 day time period. The latest run is only slightly slower and a little further southeast than the 06Z run. However, the system is more likely at this point to end up in the Bay of Campeche as depicted by the ECMWF.

So, really the takeaway from all this is we need to get another named storm over the next 2 weeks, and Cape Verde season needs to be in full swing by the end of the month for the active season predictions to hold true.

To me, it still looks like we will have a mid/late 90s type of year with a bunch of storms in September and the beginning of October. So, that would mean another 9-13 named storms.
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Quoting 262. ncstorm:


hmm I dont know about that..





It is well documented that 300 hour model runs are HIGHLY prone to VERY LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT errors.

This is not an opinion based statement. Long range run output is very very likely to be totally WRONG.

Wrong like left shoe on the right foot....

Just plain WRONG!!! And it happens ALL THE TIME.

More likely to be wrong than right, by a large margin.

I wouldn't be scared to say wrong 9 times out of 10.
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Actually posting the longer range models I like to look at the pattern as well as the storms, just to get an idea of what we are going to be tackling once the peak comes around, but recurvatures are looking quite grim this year.
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Quoting 258. LargoFl:
lets not forget the Carolina's are also in danger flooding wise from whatever this becomes..maybe the whole southeast should be staying alert..flooding wise huh
Yeah huh?.Huh?.
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here we go!! lets dance and watch the tropical storms moving to the west!
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Quoting 262. ncstorm:


hmm I dont know about that..





But I do,...it's actually under 1% chance. Now that's not to say something will develop off that coastline in 7 or 10 or 14 days from now...we are getting into the prime development time of that area, but what a model shows us today vs 300hrs from now in that position and strength is irrelevant. Models are decent out to 72hrs... 120hrs at most. :)
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Quoting 258. LargoFl:
lets not forget the Carolina's are also in danger flooding wise from whatever this becomes..maybe the whole southeast should be staying alert..flooding wise huh


I'm takin' notes...
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Quoting 260. scottsvb:
Anything over 120hrs out is not worth looking at.


last night you said 72 hours..
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Quoting 253. scottsvb:


Your looking at 300 hrs out and not 120hrs out near Africa....chances of that being there at 300hrs from now is under 2%


hmm I dont know about that..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13415
If we started June 1st and started to look at what the GFS showed over 300hrs out, we would be on the M or N storm by now
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Anything over 120hrs out is not worth looking at.
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"Your list of ignored users has successfully been edited!"


Still love that! :)
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lets not forget the Carolina's are also in danger flooding wise from whatever this becomes..maybe the whole southeast should be staying alert..flooding wise huh
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I know this is way out in Disney fantasy land, but it is showing a dangerous pattern.



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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


somebody may get 20" of rain out of this set up.


Someone may lose a trash can lid, possibly some ant hills misplaced. My guess: 20" near Wekiva? :-)
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Lol.Not at no three hundred hours out.I have a better chance winning the power ball.I could buy the site back from TMC..
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Quoting 247. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok here we go.





Your looking at 300 hrs out and not 120hrs out near Africa....chances of that being there at 300hrs from now is under 2%
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Good Afternoon... P16L is on track for the NW Carib / S GOM.

Environment should definitely be more conductive once the TUTT to it's W wraps a more in order to allow an ULAC to develop in the NW Carib and produce that conductive environment later this week.

Will be interesting to watch at the very least even if nothing really organized comes out of it.
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Quoting 238. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It could only mean one thing, since those waters have yet to be tapped a monster could be in the making for September. There is plenty of ACE to be accumulated and plenty of potential energy out there.


Central Atlantics MDR around 35w-50W has a lot of sinking air and NE trades. This is the reason nothing can keep going after it moves off Africa. What needs to happen is a strong low move off the coast and pushes the ridge further NE and allowing more easterly trades north of 15 also allowing the ITZ to come further north near 8-10N
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The Caribbean will be where the action begins; I'd expect the Cape Verde storms in September. It will be a September to remember.
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00Z GFS HR 132 SAT AUG 17

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Ok here we go.



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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I said last week this system in the Caribbean reminds me of Charley as in orlando we had 3 days of hot dry weather before a strong trough moved in and steered him into SW FL. One thing of note which I found interesting as the eye of Charley approached Orlando was the sharp temperature drop as it actually felt cool outside about an hour before the eye moved over Orlando. Temps went from 78 in the outer rain bands to 69 as the eye moved in. I wonder what the cause of that was or is that the case when such strong hurricanes roll in?


Im curious as to what NWS Melbourne has to say about this disturbance, have you phoned in there recently to get the scoop on this potential deadly cloud mass trying to organize near south america?
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK TO UPDATE FORMATION POTENTIAL OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. IF
ADDITIONAL DATA CONFIRM THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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00Z GFS HR 126 SAT AUG 17

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Quoting 242. seminolesfan:

That was a baiting-type question that I would bet you already knew the answer to before you typed it.

You want attention and asked a silly question, IMO.

I'm not wound up; Just gave you a silly answer and some of the attention you so badly crave. :P


Not really lol
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Quoting 226. mitchelace5:


Just asking, no need to get ticked off, man. Just chill

That was a baiting-type question that I would bet you already knew the answer to before you typed it.

You want attention and asked a silly question, IMO.

I'm not wound up; Just gave you a silly answer and some of the attention you so badly crave. :P
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Quoting 216. mitchelace5:
Does the steering pattern looks threatening for Florida this year?


Lol how many times are you going to ask that?! We already had Andrea move across Florida in June then if it wasn't for the mountains of Hispaniola and high trade winds Chantal could have been a threat. Same for Dorian who came east of Florida but never had anything at the surface till it was too late (shear for a upper trough). Now we have another potential system moving towards the Panhandle like Andrea did this year. Once we have our storms we should know whether or not they affect The Gulf and the SE US.
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GFS isn't budging on where it goes..GFS 12z.........
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Quoting 225. seminolesfan:


Seriously?

I mean, really? Anyone that cares at all about reading this blog, which should be everyone that posts, should have that answer with just a day or two of lurking.



Look at the date he joined and his question. We all know who this is. He mispronounced threat. It should read threater.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.