Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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meanwhile the cold front with ITS rains...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
120 hours
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new tropical wave with a spin hitting warm water soon.
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Fairly strong trough being carved out on the Euro at 96hrs with another piece of energy over Kansas that will deepen the trough even further.

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thank you largo...boys and girls....we have a blob....i expect at least a dozen pics from the various sources posted within the hour
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Quoting 428. ncstorm:


I dont know..showing signs of life..

Look out in the Atlantic.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
The CMC scenario, while unlikely, is possible




my gambling friends...this is called...covering your bets
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
The CMC scenario, while unlikely, is possible seeing how spicy hot the TCHP and SST's are in the western caribbean.
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Ok, I know I said that I wouldn't post anything until a storm arises, but this is not tropics related and I really want to share this.

Don't you just love it when they say there is a 20% chance of rain and you get this! :D

I won't post about anything in the tropics until something materializes.
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Quoting 425. StormTrackerScott:


Same old story the Euro shows nothing while all the other models are showing development.


Well, the Euro does run it inland before it has any opportunity to develop. It also keeps it buried in the BOC.
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Quoting 425. StormTrackerScott:


Same old story the Euro shows nothing while all the other models are showing development.


I dont know..showing signs of life..

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Quoting 425. StormTrackerScott:


Same old story the Euro shows nothing while all the other models are showing development.
The trough is not as deep or at least it seems slower and the storm is not as strong, so it makes sense for a weaker storm to run right into Central America if the pattern the Euro is showing is correct.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
A lot of emphasis is being placed on the Panama low, which is a typical feature in the southern Caribbean. It will take vorticity advection from the tropical wave south of Hispaniola to get things going.
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Quoting 419. ncstorm:
72 hours


Same old story the Euro shows nothing while all the other models are showing development.
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Quoting 420. nrtiwlnvragn:
Atlantic odd man out as Central Pacific joins the fray....


11W UTOR 130812 1200 17.7N 117.9E WPAC 85 959
90C INVEST 130812 1800 11.0N 141.0W CPAC 25 NA
90S INVEST 130812 1200 9.7S 91.3E SHEM 15 1010
92E INVEST 130812 1200 13.7N 125.5W EPAC 25 1008


Let's see if 92L joins the list later today.
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Broad area of low pressure moving into Belize on the Euro.

Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
Quoting 416. allancalderini:
Expect td nine soon.THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.


I don't expect much from this system. Could become a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm before weakening in the central Pacific. Unlikely to be a significant threat to Hawaii.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting 414. CybrTeddy:


I don't think I've ever seen someone contradict themselves like that in one sentence before.
The switch is about to be turned on. Anything spinning will be suspect.
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Atlantic odd man out as Central Pacific joins the fray....


11W UTOR 130812 1200 17.7N 117.9E WPAC 85 959
90C INVEST 130812 1800 11.0N 141.0W CPAC 25 NA
90S INVEST 130812 1200 9.7S 91.3E SHEM 15 1010
92E INVEST 130812 1200 13.7N 125.5W EPAC 25 1008
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72 hours
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Quoting 414. CybrTeddy:


I don't think I've ever seen someone contradict themselves like that in one sentence before.


lol
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Quoting 414. CybrTeddy:


I don't think I've ever seen someone contradict themselves like that in one sentence before.


Hey, the trolls have to keep fresh material. Otherwise, it just gets boring. :-)
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Expect td nine soon.THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
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Quoting 407. interpreter:
No chance for development of the central Carribean system. Hostile upper level winds fron TUTT will remain as the Euro model predicts (don't like to rely on models prior to the development of a system) on a system that doesn't even exist yet and likely will never exist.


Shear is decreasing near the broad surface low center near northern Panama.
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Quoting 407. interpreter:
No chance for development of the central Carribean system. Hostile upper level winds fron TUTT will remain as the Euro model predicts (don't like to rely on models prior to the development of a system) on a system that doesn't even exist yet and likely will never exist.


I don't think I've ever seen someone contradict themselves like that in one sentence before.
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the first half of August has been extremely inactive with the exception of td Dorian.The second half should be when the waves start developing into tropical storms.
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Quoting 400. 69Viking:
What is that to the east of Florida?
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Issued: Aug 12, 2013 8:00 am HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A trough of low pressure located about 1050 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Organization has improved somewhat over the past 6 hours. However, development of this disturbance is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at about 15 mph over the next few days. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday morning.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting 406. ncstorm:
48 hours
Alright doing a little better showing vorticity now, but looks like it is trying to push it inland into Central America.
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Quoting 407. interpreter:
No chance for development of the central Carribean system. Hostile upper level winds fron TUTT will remain as the Euro model predicts (don't like to rely on models prior to the development of a system) on a system that doesn't even exist yet and likely will never exist.


K.
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Quoting 377. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS developed a tropical storm and sent it into Mexico over a week ago, while the system was in the long range; it later dropped it. While specifics shouldn't have been taken to heart, it was showing tropical cyclone development was a distinct possibility in the Gulf and Caribbean in mid-August. Over the past few days, the GFS and others have picked the system back up. That's the nature of the model.
Quoting 388. Levi32:


Looking at 0z and 12z runs since August 4th, the GFS did not show any kind of tropical cyclone in the gulf until 12z August 7th and 12z August 8th, and since then on and off development has been portrayed. It didn't show anything before 4 days ago, and the FIM showed nothing before about 5 days ago.

No chance for development of the central Carribean system. Hostile upper level winds fron TUTT will remain as the Euro model predicts (don't like to rely on models prior to the development of a system) on a system that doesn't even exist yet and likely will never exist.
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48 hours
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Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

RIDGE WEAKENS AS MAIN HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFT E ALLOWING
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT NW INTO EASTERN
GULF LATE WED. MODELS DIFFER THEREAFTER AS POSITION...TRACK...
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRES WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE GFS
BRINGING 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTER INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR MORE
MODERATE UKMET AND ECMWF BRINGING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRES FURTHER
W OF 87W. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING EVEN WEAKER LOW PRES EVEN
FURTHER W. UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE MAIN
FACT THAT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL BE WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

P.S. They must have peaked at models past 120 hours.........
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Quoting 142. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi hydrus. You still maintain the talk about this disturbance being the best TC in Atlantic so far in 2013? Surely looks good now and as you said,less dry air down the road to work with.
If the wave near the coast does develop, it may have some affect on the large wave behind it. The general track of these systems that do make it across the Atlantic seems like over or near the northern Antilles.

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Quoting 396. 69Viking:


It's definitely a result of the runoff. Most of the rivers in the area have been at or above flood stage since the beginning of July.
Oh ok I figured it was more to do with the rain water running off into the brackish waters causing the water to look that color, it happens all to often in places where rivers lead into delta's that have received excess amount of rain. They have to constantly drain the water and sometimes there is no where to drain the water because the delta is flowing over.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
Quoting 401. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it was August 2 or 3. I know you remember because you told me to be careful with using the GFS when the monsoon trough is involved lol.


Oh, well I do remember that conversation. You're right about the August 2nd run:

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Quoting 388. Levi32:


Looking at 0z and 12z runs since August 4th, the GFS did not show any kind of tropical cyclone in the gulf until 12z August 7th and 12z August 8th, and since then on and off development has been portrayed. It didn't show anything before 4 days ago, and the FIM showed nothing before about 5 days ago.


I think it was August 2 or 3. I know you remember because you told me to be careful with using the GFS when the monsoon trough is involved lol.
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Don't quite understand this Recon, going way down to north of Panama with no followup flights. Must have whatever they would find progged to go inland quickly.
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Quoting 385. DrMickey:

Last step: paint each fingernail a different color, as the photos suggest.


well of course..LOL
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Thank You Mother Ridge for your support of the hot weather here in FL. Whew!

KT4LV /Largo Fl., Largo
Elevation
50 ft
Station Select
Now
Clear
Clear
Temperature
95.6 °F
Feels Like 110 °F
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
Quoting 391. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's not good. Is it due in part to bacteria in the water caused by algae bloom (Red Tide) which would have been a result of the run-off?


It's definitely a result of the runoff. Most of the rivers in the area have been at or above flood stage since the beginning of July.
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Quoting 361. Levi32:


Some humans even beat the FIM.... :)


And I'll give credit you Levi of course. :P
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Quoting 357. RTSplayer:
I'd say they are comet fragments from outer space.

BR>

Alternative hypothesis.

Wind might not be able to hold up the ice, but electric charge might. Suppose there's dust in the thunderstorm, and ice starts to form on these dust particles to begin making hail stones. Now if the dust has a negative charge, and the top of the clouds have a positive charge, then the charge could levitate the ice through the electromagnetic force, which is ridiculously more powerful than wind. One problem with this hypothesis is I certainly haven't got the facilities to test it. Another problem is most of the ice bombs discussed appear to have happened with clear skies, so you'd still need an explanation of how the ice bomb gets ejected from the hypothetical thunderstorm or charge phenomena that made it, and tossed dozens or hundreds of miles away where it hits the ground. This hypothesis could be tested in a lab, but I admit it's bordering on pure conjecture.I'd be interested to see someone with the computer resources to model this concept, or someone with the laboratory resources, such as NHC or NASA, to actually try to replicate it in the physical world. Again, the idea is that negatively charged dust in the ice causes the electric potential from the positive charge at the top of the clouds to levitate the ice via the electromagnetic force, which is many orders of magnitude more powerful than Gravity.

The comet theory above is much more plausible, but if you're looking for an atmospheric explanation, electricity is the best I can come up with.

Okay, so those are my two attempts to explain ice bombs.


I think you are on to something, but what if it is more complex. Biblically, God appeared to Job out of a whirlwind, and took Elija to heaven in a whirlwind. Ezekiel saw a "wheel within a wheel". Hmm, what if spiritual beings have stealth spacecraft?

Now, those things could have electromagnetic energy all around them as they move in Earth's atmosphere, right? If they get low enough, frozen precipitation might simply collect on top of them, then slough off & fall to earth as they move away at high speeds or turn suddenly. A spinning saucer spacecraft might have all sorts of vorticity to it while buzzing around earth, so whether good angels or bad ones, they might leave T-storms & rotation systems in the wake of the large motherships especially. (grinning)
See, mystery solved!
Btw, notice how they have infiltrated even weather forecasting, as we use flying saucer shapes to show the locations of strong tropical storms & hurricanes. :))
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850mb vorticity increasing wind shear decreasing across the systems core which appears to be developing near 10N: 80W as convection is waning it seems to be developing better low level structure. Wind shear is around 5-10 knots which is favorable for development as the sub-equatorial upper level anticyclone moves northward pushing the shear axis north and west away from the developing system. I now put odds of development within 48 hours at 30% and in five days around 60%.
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Quoting 371. Grothar:


Thanks Levi. The first time you've ever given me credit for posting this two weeks ago. You're a nice young man.


You're welcome lol.
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Quoting 358. GetReal:


Went on a fishing trip that took us 5 miles out into the GOM this past Sunday. We were unable to find ANY blue water. The waters in the bays and coastal areas from Gulf Shores, Al to Pensacola are brown or red in color due to all the rain run-off this past month.
That's not good. Is it due in part to bacteria in the water caused by algae bloom (Red Tide) which would have been a result of the run-off?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 6686
Quoting 355. ncstorm:
I hope everyone finger hasnt gotten rusty with that recent lull--here are some helpful hints..






Massage the top and palm of your hand
Bend each finger back until you feel a slight stretching. Then bend each finger forward. Note that this should not be done to the point of pain!



Lift and lower each finger one by one.
Blogger calesthetics. Burn those calories baby.
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Ignition 12z Euro starting

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.