Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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models schmodels.....just play it safe. ALWAYS have beer and beef jerky on hand :)
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Quoting 468. Fishinnfever05:
Quoting 391. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's not good. Is it due in part to bacteria in the water caused by algae bloom (Red Tide) which would have been a result of the run-off?


I was in the fishing on Saturday out of gulf shores, and once you make it out about 10-12 miles you hit blue water. I have been fishing down here awhile and it is not very often you get blue water within 10 miles of the coast.


In the Fort Walton and Destin area we normally have Emerald Green waters on our beaches and even inshore when the tide is at high tide. This year it's a river brown color due to all the runoff even at high tide.
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Quoting 485. MississippiWx:


Yeah, but the best upper level winds are associated with it before it really even develops. The upper level anticyclone breaks down as it moves farther north into the Central Gulf. Dry air on the west side will also be a problem.


Drier and cooler air at that. However Charley faught that off and intensified while moving toward FL. So this will be interesting to follow.
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1001 on nam
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Quoting 475. StormTrackerScott:


This system will actually have an anticyclone over head in the SE & C Gulf. Could have a much stronger system than many what many thinks on here.



Yeah, but the best upper level winds are associated with it before it really even develops. The upper level anticyclone breaks down as it moves farther north into the Central Gulf. Dry air on the west side will also be a problem.
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and this coming weekend is the anniversary of Camille..That one surprised folks also...
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Quoting 465. MississippiWx:
If the Gulf system does develop, I don't see it being too strong with such a strong trough to the north. It should impart a good bit of shear on any TC in the Gulf the farther north it moves. It will also more than likely have to deal with dry air/stable air on the west side of the system thanks to the upper trough. A moderate TS is what I see coming from this setup. The only way we get a minimal hurricane is if it begins developing a little earlier than expected and stays over water in the NW Caribbean instead of moving over the Yucatan.


Back in October of 95 Opal had no problems with intesification after a strong trough picked her in the BOC and brought her into the Florida Panhandle. She reached 155 mph in a short amount of time over the warm Gulf before weakening a bit just before landfall. The surge she brought caused a lot of damage to this area.
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Quoting 475. StormTrackerScott:


This system will actually have an anticyclone over head in the SE & C Gulf. Could have a much stronger system than many what many thinks on here.


The further north the system gets and closer it gets to the trough, will cause the anticyclone to become displaced from it and shear it from the west until landfall.
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Quoting 456. Stormchaser121:

Hey Levi could this thing still go to TX? Or would it head to FL like the models are saying.


It would take a very special timetable to get this thing into Texas now. This is more than likely a Mexico or central-eastern gulf coast storm, I think.
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Quoting 473. Levi32:


I don't agree that 5-6 %uFFFDC below normal temperatures in the mid-US during the summer is rare.



Levi, I mean really upper 70's in Nashville in? August isn't rare. Come on man. Normal highs are in the upper 80's to low 90's.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 121734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANGE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
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Quoting 471. Camille33:

Wow look at new canadian model!!
It is the Canadian model man....If it was right, we would of had I think like 3-4 hurricanes so far this season, all wrong.
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Quoting 452. LargoFl:
I wonder what size Erin will be comes Friday..right now it looks small and compact..we in tampa bay need to keep a good eye on this system this week,maybe we get some impacts
Don't get ahead of yourself. It will likely not happen due to unfavorable upper level conditions throughout the area.
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LOL..yep..tied down all the patio furniture and stocked up on as many vienna sausages I could buy..gassed up the car and generator..ready and waiting..


dude.....this thing will have an eye the size of rrhode island....and with it being lopsided...well...for the love of god man...evacuate now
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Quoting 465. MississippiWx:
If the Gulf system does develop, I don't see it being too strong with such a strong trough to the north. It should impart a good bit of shear on any TC in the Gulf the farther north it moves. It will also more than likely have to deal with dry air/stable air on the west side of the system thanks to the upper trough. A moderate TS is what I see coming from this setup. The only way we get a minimal hurricane is if it begins developing a little earlier than expected and stays over water in the NW Caribbean instead of moving over the Yucatan.


This system will actually have an anticyclone over head in the SE & C Gulf. Could have a much stronger system than many what many people thinks on here.

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Quoting 463. interpreter:

Nothing!
I wouldn't say nothing that is an Upper Level Low.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8323
Quoting 459. StormTrackerScott:


To have a trough like this deep move down in August is rare. Very cool air diving south this week. So yes.



I don't agree that 5-6 °C below normal temperatures in the mid-US during the summer is rare.

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If it is a lopsided storm then the west coast could get some impacts.



ok...we finally have a blob.....we still don't know if it will develop....we have differing models stating differing strengths....differing tracks...and now...we're guestimating if it will be lopsided r not all for the hopes that tampa will finally get their clock cleaned?

my freaking gawdddd.......thank the lord i have no hair to pull out
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Wow look at new canadian model!!
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Quoting 456. Stormchaser121:

Hey Levi could this thing still go to TX? Or would it head to FL like the models are saying.


The strength of the trough and position of the trough will make it nearly impossible for it to move into Texas.
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Quoting 461. ricderr:
blob alert - did Grothar make it official ?



psst..i think the nhc just barely trumps him


by a very thin margin lol
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Quoting 391. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's not good. Is it due in part to bacteria in the water caused by algae bloom (Red Tide) which would have been a result of the run-off?


I was in the fishing on Saturday out of gulf shores, and once you make it out about 10-12 miles you hit blue water. I have been fishing down here awhile and it is not very often you get blue water within 10 miles of the coast.
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August is typically the hottest month of the year for many and the fact that much of the Mississippi Valley will be experiencing Mid September temps is impressive.
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Quoting 458. ricderr:
ncstorm you'll be getting some of erin huh..stay safe up there.




are you boarded up yet?


LOL..yep..tied down all the patio furniture and stocked up on as many vienna sausages I could buy..gassed up the car and generator..ready and waiting..
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If the Gulf system does develop, I don't see it being too strong with such a strong trough to the north. It should impart a good bit of shear on any TC in the Gulf the farther north it moves. It will also more than likely have to deal with dry air/stable air on the west side of the system thanks to the upper trough. A moderate TS is what I see coming from this setup. The only way we get a minimal hurricane is if it begins developing a little earlier than expected and stays over water in the NW Caribbean instead of moving over the Yucatan.
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Quoting 455. ricderr:
looks like a ULL WAY out in the Atlantic, shouldn't affect any devlopment in the Caribbean or Gulf



yeppers...but that one if the alaskan gulf has me worried


Hey now, that one has been giving me rain for 32 hours now.
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Quoting 411. unknowncomic:
What is that to the east of Florida?

Nothing!
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Quoting 446. StormTrackerScott:


Rare to see a trough this deep in August.



We'll see how deep it is. Last one didn't bring a lick of cooler air to NW Florida.
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blob alert - did Grothar make it official ?



psst..i think the nhc just barely trumps him
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Quoting 453. Levi32:


5840m heights over the Mississippi Valley is rare? Ok.


To have a trough like this deep move down in August is rare. Very cool air diving south this week. So yes.

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ncstorm you'll be getting some of erin huh..stay safe up there.




are you boarded up yet?
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blob alert - did Grothar make it official ?
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Quoting 453. Levi32:


5840m heights over the Mississippi Valley is rare? Ok.

Hey Levi could this thing still go to TX? Or would it head to FL like the models are saying.
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looks like a ULL WAY out in the Atlantic, shouldn't affect any devlopment in the Caribbean or Gulf



yeppers...but that one if the alaskan gulf has me worried
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Quoting 451. ncstorm:
144 hours
ncstorm you'll be getting some of erin huh..stay safe up there.
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Quoting 446. StormTrackerScott:


Rare to see a trough this deep in August.



5840m heights over the Mississippi Valley is rare? Ok.
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I wonder what size Erin will be comes Friday..right now it looks small and compact..we in tampa bay need to keep a good eye on this system this week,maybe we get some impacts
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144 hours
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Quoting 440. seminolesfan:


Trying to piece together a multi-model long range outlook, while documenting the model variances, and wording your forecast to be as non-committal as possible while using data from the 7 day outputs is TOTALLY the same thing as posting OMINOUS pictures of ONE output nearing the 14 day time period without any analysis whatsoever.

Sheesh, nrti. Forest for the trees...forest for the trees...


Mainly pointing at the user who said models are no good after 120 hours. I agree that timeframes in the 2xx and 3xx are in the twilight zone and should only be used for looking at a general pattern and not specific features. However models are showing improving skill in the 6-7 day timeframe.
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Quoting 411. unknowncomic:
What is that to the east of Florida?


Looks like a ULL WAY out in the Atlantic, shouldn't affect any devlopment in the Caribbean or Gulf.
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Quoting 435. ricderr:
thank you largo...boys and girls....we have a blob....i expect at least a dozen pics from the various sources posted within the hour
And then 92L --> TD 5 --> TS Erin...Hurricane Erin? I guess we will find out in 5 days. Exciting times ahead in this blog that is for sure.
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Quoting 438. ncstorm:
120 hours


Rare to see a trough this deep in August.

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Lower Resolution 60 km. Experimental FIM-7:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8323
Quoting 429. MississippiWx:


Well, the Euro does run it inland before it has any opportunity to develop. It also keeps it buried in the BOC.


Whatever happens it looks like some much cooler weather is heading your way. Well if you call 84 cooler with lows in the 60's.
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FIM has a 65 mph TS making landfall.

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Quoting 430. opal92nwf:
Ok, I know I said that I wouldn't post anything until a storm arises, but this is not tropics related and I really want to share this.

Don't you just love it when they say there is a 20% chance of rain and you get this! :D

I won't post about anything in the tropics until something materializes.


I think this year for our area we should add 50% on top of whatever forecast they give which means today we really have about a 70% chance of getting rain.
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Using NCEP Cyclogenesis tracker the GFS has higher winds than the CMC, which has the lower pressure.


TG 0020 2013081212_F072_194N_0868W_FOF 2013081212 03 GFSO 126 300N 855W 46 1009


TG 0018 2013081212_F036_167N_0811W_FOF 2013081212 03 CMC 126 291N 881W 44 993

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Quoting 405. nrtiwlnvragn:
They must have peaked at models past 120 hours.........


Trying to piece together a multi-model long range outlook, while documenting the model variances, and wording your forecast to be as non-committal as possible while using data from the 7 day outputs is TOTALLY the same thing as posting OMINOUS pictures of ONE output nearing the 14 day time period without any analysis whatsoever.

Sheesh, nrti. Forest for the trees...forest for the trees...
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meanwhile the cold front with ITS rains...........
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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