Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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NHC Marine Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 121800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL/NWW3 BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH WED...LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OFF NE FLORIDA COAST
ALONG 29N INTO NW GULF. GUIDANCE AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WED. RIDGE WEAKENS AS MAIN HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFT E ALLOWING
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT NW INTO EASTERN
GULF LATE WED. MODELS DIFFER THEREAFTER AS POSITION...TRACK...
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRES WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE GFS
BRINGING 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTER INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR MORE
MODERATE UKMET AND ECMWF BRINGING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRES FURTHER
W OF 87W. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING EVEN WEAKER LOW PRES EVEN
FURTHER W. UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE MAIN
FACT THAT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL BE WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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No, no then they are a precious commodity then...legs maybe? :) and that is my final guess LOL.

good idea....we all know i'll be banned....no need for you to go also....
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Quoting 578. kmanislander:


Hi Drak,

Notice how the genesis point is being shown as the western tip of Cuba instead of the BOC ??

We may see that right turn move even farther South, potentially over the central W coast of Fla. IF the system develops.


I think the HWRF might be to northeast biased. The 850mb vorticity does show things ramping up once the system gets past Jamaica, south of Cuba. Can we really trust the HWRF though? "The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. " (Jeff Masters) I'm siding with the GFS on this one at the moment.
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Quoting 572. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thanks Levi.....I assume I can speak for the majority of bloggers on here who find your Tropical Updates very informative and understandable to the average Joe. Thanks for all the time and effort and keep up the good work.


Meant to + not - your comment.
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Tampa radio forecasters are already talking with way too much confidence about a tropical storm hitting the Panhandle later this week! How can they make such a forecast if NHC doesn't even try to predict that far into future of this potential system?


FEAR.....gets you to watch...strengthens ratings....increases advertising revenue
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Quoting 539. ricderr:
LOL Ric I sure as heck do not want to see Tampa's clocked clean because if that happened there's a good chance I would not have a home any more. Maybe you could start pulling chest hair's out :))


ALL 5 OF THEM


No, no then they are a precious commodity then...legs maybe? :) and that is my final guess LOL.

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If it the HWRF is to pan out we would be looking at a moderate to strong tropical storm here along the west coast of FL.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
It was 93E in EPAC but now is Invest 90C at CPAC.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
11 W INTENSE CYCLONE UTOR

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53526
2 + 2 = Mexico?

Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

SUN AUG 11 COORDINATION WITH NHC INDICATED A
TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE SWRN GULF BY FRI-SAT WHICH IS
REFLECTIVE OF AN ECMWF-TYPE SOLN. WEIGHTING OF THE 06Z GFS IN THE
FAVORED OVERALL BLEND IS SUFFICIENTLY SMALL NOT TO HAVE AN ADVERSE
IMPACT ON THE FCST OVER THIS AREA. THE UPDATED SFC FCST ISSUED BY
19Z WILL REFLECT TODAYS 17Z NHC COORDINATION
.


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maybe it doesn't go into the yucatan, goes thru the channel...
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Quoting 564. Drakoen:


Hard right turn





Hi Drak,

Notice how the genesis point is being shown as the western tip of Cuba instead of the BOC ??

We may see that right turn move even farther South, potentially over the central W coast of Fla. IF the system develops.
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XX/XX/XXL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53526


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 953.6mb/ 99.6kt

Watch out China now 99 kt!!
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Quoting 560. SuperStorm093:


JMA is by far the WORST model I have ever seen lol, nothing against you. That thing predicted EVERY, literally, single winter storm wrong this year.


speaking of models, did you know that the models were able to latch on to the storm of the century or as your handle has it, Superstorm093 (why did you place a 0 there?) with great accuracy..you talk a lot about the models poor performance but your own handle has one of the best forecasting jobs seen with the models..

Models as Bases of the Forecast
False Color Composite

This image is a false color composite of the storm showing the massive sweep of the storm up the eastern portion of the United States. The storm affected nearly one-half the U.S. population and 26 states. Click image for larger view.

Long before the storm formed, NWS forecasters watched as all the necessary atmospheric conditions came together. They did so by peering days into the future using computer forecast models to guide them. Although these models existed since the 1950s, recent advances in the global analyses, numerical modeling, and computing power had increased their resolution and accuracy enough to allow them to play a much greater role in forecasting. Because of the improved models, NWS forecasters were able to make difficult decisions based on the model guidance. This was the first time forecasters were able to do so with such a major weather event.
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Dana Rohrabacher, GOP House Science Committee Member: 'Global Warming Is A Total Fraud'



Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), a longtime member of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, recently brushed aside concern that the wildfires currently scorching across his state and causing millions of dollars of damage have anything to do with climate change. In fact, he told constituents at a town hall that "global warming is a total fraud," employed by liberals to "create global government."

In a video captured by Lee Fang of The Nation, Rohrabacher laughed off a claim made last week by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) that the unusual intensity of this year's wildfire season should give rise to a more serious debate about how climate change is affecting the temperature and length of the dry season.

"Just so you'll know, global warming is a total fraud and it's being designed because what you’ve got is you’ve got liberals who get elected at the local level want state government to do the work and let them make the decisions," Rohrabacher said. "Then, at the state level, they want the federal government to do it. And at the federal government, they want to create global government to control all of our lives."

The friendly town hall audience seemed to agree with Rohrabacher's contention that humans were incapable of changing earth's climate, giving a collective chuckle. The congressman then appeared to make an offhand reference to Agenda 21, a set of UN-created sustainable development recommendations that the tea party and other Republicans have put forth as an example of how the government will use the threat of climate change to seize property and control the lives of its citizens.

"It's step by step by step, more and bigger control over our lives by higher levels of government. And global warming is that strategy in spades," Rohrabacher said. "Our freedom to make our choices on transportation and everything else? No, that’s gotta be done by a government official who, by the way, probably comes from Nigeria because he’s a UN government official, not a US government official."

Rohrabacher's climate change denialism and misunderstanding of science is well-documented. He's suggested that prehistoric climate change could have been caused by "dinosaur flatulence," and that clear-cutting rainforests would eliminate greenhouse gas production.

Regardless of Rohrabacher's beliefs, California's still-young fire season is expected to be more devastating in 2013 than it has been in years, thanks in part to both climate change and the fact that the state is still awaiting the Santa Ana winds, which typically fuel the blazes. The Associated Press reports:

California fire officials have battled 4,300 wildfires, a stark increase from the yearly average of nearly 3,000 they faced from 2008 to 2012, said Daniel Berlant, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Until last week, those fires had already burned 111 square miles or more than 71,000 acres, up from 40,000 acres during the same period last year. The annual average for acreage charred in the last five years was 113,000 acres, he said – roughly 177 square miles.


Meanwhile, the congressional body designed to address climate change and its causes has been stacked with Republicans who refuse to consider that a threat exists. Earlier this year, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) was assigned chair of the House Science Subcommittee on Environment, which plays a direct hand in many areas related to climate change. Stewart, like 55 percent of congressional Republicans, including a handful in the House Science Committee, doesn't believe that humans are responsible for rising global temperatures.

LINK
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Quoting 564. Drakoen:


Hard right turn




I been forecast that for 5 days now!
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Quoting 525. Levi32:


I'll have one out in a few hours. I'm back in Alaska so it's still early in the day for me. I'm still absorbing data.


Thanks Levi.....I assume I can speak for the majority of bloggers on here who find your Tropical Updates very informative and understandable to the average Joe. Thanks for all the time and effort and keep up the good work.
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Tampa radio forecasters are already talking with way too much confidence about a tropical storm hitting the Panhandle later this week! How can they make such a forecast if NHC doesn't even try to predict that far into future of this potential system?
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Quoting 555. SuperStorm093:
Shear in the Caribbean will keep this storm in check.


Shear will relax as the ULL now situated over the Yucatan channel retrogrades to the West and the high over the Southern Caribbean expands due to forcing by the retreating ULL. I would expect to see shear values decline over the course of the next 24 to 48 hours.
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Quoting 430. opal92nwf:
Ok, I know I said that I wouldn't post anything until a storm arises, but this is not tropics related and I really want to share this.

Don't you just love it when they say there is a 20% chance of rain and you get this! :D

I won't post about anything in the tropics until something materializes.

Nice sea breeze effect. The little stretch of coast between San Luis Pass and East Matagorda Bay (SW of Houston between the bays) has the most reliable sea breeze front near Houston, but the showers are usually tiny, like today. If they don't evaporate before they hit the ground, then the rain is gone soon after.
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Quoting 559. nrtiwlnvragn:
Experimental Basin Wide HWRF




Hmm, Exactly like the GFS, into the Big Bend area.
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Bucking the Trend: 2013's Cool Summer
Record Highs VS. Record Lows
Jan. 1 - Aug. 11, 2013 7,068 8,442

Jan. 1 - Aug. 11, 2012 27,473 2,882
The persistent cool weather is well-reflected in national extreme temperature statistics from the National Climatic Data Center


An August Brrr!
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Quoting 560. SuperStorm093:


JMA is by far the WORST model I have ever seen lol, nothing against you. That thing predicted EVERY, literally, single winter storm wrong this year.

Well, *I* could do that!
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Quoting 559. nrtiwlnvragn:
Experimental Basin Wide HWRF




Hard right turn



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This will be a 40-45 MPH storm, not very organized hitting from North Texas to western Florida I think.
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Quoting 552. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Convection lifting north and Tropical Wave moving West.


There is no tropical wave this is a MONSOON trough! There is 2 circulations in it and we don't know which will become dominant one!
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Quoting 557. ncstorm:
12z JMA





JMA is by far the WORST model I have ever seen lol, nothing against you. That thing predicted EVERY, literally, single winter storm wrong this year.
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Experimental Basin Wide HWRF


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The latest GFS, has the Carb. (AOI, 10%) spin up little, and then it forecasts it to head into the gulf.

The High pressure retreats and viola, it move into, where else? The Big Bend Area of FL. Other models post it moving toward LA and E Texas Coast. Could be interesting to watch.

Also, at the end of the model run, a nice big potential AOI, mid Atlantic, headed westerly.
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12z JMA



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Shear in the Caribbean will keep this storm in check.
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Quoting 537. LargoFl:
this happened today near Orlando..alot of rain brings sinkhole dangers also...


Saw this on the News this morning on the West Coast. That is a scary looking mess. They said no one got hurt, lucky that one.....
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right now I am watching this tropical wave!! the national hurricane center is watching it to.
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Convection lifting north and Tropical Wave moving West.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
Quoting 525. Levi32:


I'll have one out in a few hours. I'm back in Alaska so it's still early in the day for me. I'm still absorbing data.



nice tropical wave need to be watch!
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The 850mb vorticity has become elongated somewhat and strengthened south of Hispaniola with that tropical wave n the vicinity. Upper level anticyclone over southwestern Caribbean Sea is moving northward, but the upper level tutt axis is creating an even tighter gradient in the upper levels creating ample amounts of wind shear. Any signs of development are in the broad surface low near 10n and 80w. Has best conditions to develop into a tropical cyclone. Weak surface circulation west of there will continue to move into Central America.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3793
Quoting 515. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That sounds like a pretty good timeframe to pack your stuff up and get out of the way.
True, but the evacuation routes were much different in '69 than they are now.
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Quoting 545. 954FtLCane:
'
Yes I heard this was in Clermont, FL during the noon news. Kinda scary that one minute you can be laying down and he next just sucked into the ground...
yes its really scary alright,but it happens after the heavy rains we have been getting.
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Quoting 530. stormpetrol:


This map shows that the area of vorticity encompasses both the low in the extreme SW Caribbean and the AOI we are watching. One possibility would be for the low now shown on the map to move off to the West leaving the other area to develop. There is too much competition going on for the available energy over that swath of the Caribbean for both areas to develop IMO.

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wonder if by Friday morning the warnings will go up?..
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Quoting 542. LargoFl:
another view of the sinkhole damage near Orlando today...
'
Yes I heard this was in Clermont, FL on the noon news. Kinda scary that one minute you can be laying down and he next just sucked into the ground...
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I don't think we've had anything form in the S Caribbean since Ida on 2009...
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Quoting 507. Levi32:


I lived in Oklahoma this summer and our average high in July is 92°F. We had 6 days during the month of July where the high temperature was at least 10°F below the normal high for that date, from 3 separate troughs. It's called a cool-down. It happens. The rarity of weather tends to get exaggerated these days. We've had people treating perfectly average Texas heat like a rare heat wave this summer. It's getting ridiculous.


A cool down like this in August is impressive and that is no exaggeration. Some place are expectin lows in the upper 40's in some rural areas of the Tennesse Valley.
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another view of the sinkhole damage near Orlando today...
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541. SLU
Quoting 507. Levi32:


I lived in Oklahoma this summer and our average high in July is 92°F. We had 6 days during the month of July where the high temperature was at least 10°F below the normal high for that date, from 3 separate troughs. It's called a cool-down. It happens. The rarity of weather tends to get exaggerated these days. We've had people treating perfectly average Texas heat like a rare heat wave this summer. It's getting ridiculous.


I blame the media for this. They love to exaggerate weather "extremes" and of course the overrated global warming for their stories to catch the public's attention.
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The FIM-9 develops the northern circulation and takes it in the general direction of the Yucatan.



The end result is a trip to NOLA as a Tropical Storm.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8086
LOL Ric I sure as heck do not want to see Tampa's clocked clean because if that happened there's a good chance I would not have a home any more. Maybe you could start pulling chest hair's out :))


ALL 5 OF THEM
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.