Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 629. Camille33:

no new surface low !!


That's a new surface low. Wasn't ere about three hours ago, the image from this morning showed a surface low developing in same location, but that one weakened and moved into the Pacific Ocean.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
638. LafLA
Quoting 358. GetReal:


Went on a fishing trip that took us 5 miles out into the GOM this past Sunday. We were unable to find ANY blue water. The waters in the bays and coastal areas from Gulf Shores, Al to Pensacola are brown or red in color due to all the rain run-off this past month.


If you go offshore from S. Central Louisiana it takes at least 50 miles to hit Blue Water. Not sure where you can go anywhere 5 miles out in Louisiana to find Blue water...
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The saving grace is the expected speed of the system. It doesn't spend all that much time in the Western Caribbean or the GOM.
If it were to stall or really slowed down in the Western Caribbean it would explode with development.

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Quoting 629. Camille33:

no new surface low !!


That is nearly 18 hours old from last night. That feature is now much farther West than that.
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There isn't a "this" to say anything about at this point. Of course, there's no stopping the committed.


well...committed?....not sure i'd go that far...they sure do need meds...but not sure a stay in the psych ward is called for
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Quoting 629. Camille33:

no new surface low !!
That's because ASCAT missed it. :P Now if it was QuikSCAT you bet it would have captured that area.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
say folks..there isn't anything out there that could make this system stall out in the gulf for a few days is there?..the gulf waters are really warm,especially where its headed.
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Quoting 624. calkevin77:
Given consideration to the regions severely impacted by the drought, I'm starting to think any Atlantic storms would barely make a dent in the drought on a macro level. We need more of a consistent pineapple express pattern in the winter and possibly extensive moisture from a EPAC cutoff low or tropical system to alleviate the drought. Hate to say it but IMO this drought isn't going anywhere until a significant El Nino pattern sets in. Gonna be a while...Grab a Snickers.



Hate to say it, but I believe hurricane season is already over for TX before it even began.
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Quoting 617. TheDawnAwakening:
Surface low is developing near 10n and 79w.


Pre existing and a part of the monsoon trough.

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The best vorticity at the low levels appears to be near 10n and 77.5w where the waning convection is located, but the surface circulation is developing nicely, especially under the newly developing upper level cyclone overhead the surface low.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 612. kmanislander:
This recent image shows a NNW wind immediately to the west of the AOI which suggests that a new surface low is developing with it as the other surface low in the extreme SW Caribbean begins to exit to the West into the Pacific.


no new surface low !!
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Quoting 622. ricderr:
Really starting to take shape, wouldn't be surprised to see an invest tagged later today


i see the eye
Cool story bro.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 607. SuperStorm093:
This thing wont RI in the carribbean, it wont even be organized until it reaches the gulf and then it might not even RI.
While I tend to agree, the sst and high tchp content supports a RI event, now whether the conditions in the atmosphere allow it remains to be seen.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 608. TampaSpin:
BLOG ALERT....IF YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA....PLEASE DON'T say this is a Florida landfall...just sayn......LOL

There isn't a "this" to say anything about at this point. Of course, there's no stopping the committed.
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Quoting 616. PalmBeachWeather:
Now you are thinkin' out of the box


Is he/she thinking in or out of the Hebert box?
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Given consideration to the regions severely impacted by the drought, I'm starting to think any Atlantic storms would barely make a dent in the drought on a macro level. We need more of a consistent pineapple express pattern in the winter and possibly extensive moisture from a EPAC cutoff low or tropical system to alleviate the drought. Hate to say it but IMO this drought isn't going anywhere until a significant El Nino pattern sets in. Gonna be a while...Grab a Snickers.

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Check that 10n and 77.5w
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Really starting to take shape, wouldn't be surprised to see an invest tagged later today


i see the eye
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Regardless of where it moves, it's pretty obvious that whatever develops is going to be an eastern-weighted cyclone.


unless of course....it goes north...west....or south...yes folks....i am the master of the obvious
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Quoting 612. kmanislander:
This recent image shows a NNW wind immediately to the west of the AOI which suggests that a new surface low is developing with it as the other surface low in the extreme SW Caribbean begins to exit to the West into the Pacific.

Really starting to take shape, wouldn't be surprised to see an invest tagged later today, since the majority of the models have begun to latch on to it. The best the SW Caribbean has looked all year imo.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Even the longer-term forecasts still show normal-to-below normal temperatures for much of the US--and slightly above to far above normal temps for the majority of the globe:


thank you...i laugh when we see a state..or a region or even the us of a have cooler than normal temps....all of a sudden...certain people start spouting they knew global warming was a hoax...of course the rest of the world....was hotter...LOL
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Surface low is developing near 10n and 79w.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 613. RitaEvac:


All with the configment of the imagination of a computer model....for a storm that doesn't even exist in reality.
Now you are thinkin' out of the box
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Regardless of where it moves, it's pretty obvious that whatever develops is going to be an eastern-weighted cyclone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 607. SuperStorm093:
This thing wont RI in the carribbean, it wont even be organized until it reaches the gulf and then it might not even RI.


Wind shear will begin to die down soon as the upper level low moves out of the Cuban and Yucatan area. That should occur as the low moves into the western Caribbean Sea.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 603. TampaSpin:



The Consensus of all the models do have a land falling system in the Panhandle.


All with the configment of the imagination of a computer model....for a storm that doesn't even exist in reality.
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This recent image shows a NNW wind immediately to the west of the AOI which suggests that a new surface low is developing with it as the other surface low in the extreme SW Caribbean begins to exit to the West into the Pacific.

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Quoting 608. TampaSpin:
BLOG ALERT....IF YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA....PLEASE DON'T say this is Florida landfall...just sayn......LOL
OK
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Quoting 571. congaline:
Tampa radio forecasters are already talking with way too much confidence about a tropical storm hitting the Panhandle later this week! How can they make such a forecast if NHC doesn't even try to predict that far into future of this potential system?


They use this to capture a larger audience.
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BLOG ALERT....IF YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA....PLEASE DON'T say this is a Florida landfall...just sayn......LOL
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Quoting 605. wunderkidcayman:
wow the W Carib is HOT RI fuel

This thing wont RI in the carribbean, it wont even be organized until it reaches the gulf and then it might not even RI.
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wow the W Carib is HOT RI fuel

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting 554. PedleyCA:


Saw this on the News this morning on the West Coast. That is a scary looking mess. They said no one got hurt, lucky that one.....
Very scary Ped....That is a Disney resort...No one was hurt but many people forgot to grab their car keys and their meds.....
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Quoting 585. ricderr:
Tampa radio forecasters are already talking with way too much confidence about a tropical storm hitting the Panhandle later this week! How can they make such a forecast if NHC doesn't even try to predict that far into future of this potential system?


FEAR.....gets you to watch...strengthens ratings....increases advertising revenue



The Consensus of all the models do have a land falling system in the Panhandle.
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Sea Level Rise to Play Bigger Role in NYC Storms: Study


Ahead of Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012, winds whip up waves along the East River on the eastside of Manhattan in New York City. Experts say sea level rise could play a bigger role in future storms like Sandy, according to a new report. (Michael Heiman/Getty Images)

Hurricane Sandy caused upward of $60 billion in damage, including an estimated $19 billion in damage and economic losses in New York City alone. Sea level rise played a relatively minor role in contributing to these losses.

However, a new study finds that that might not be the case for future storms, even those that pack less of a punch than Sandy.

The study, published Thursday in the Journal of Quaternary Science, also found that the record 13.88 foot storm tide Sandy brought to New York Harbor was driven more by the fact that the storm's strongest winds and peak surge arrived right as an astronomical high tide was peaking as well.

"The timing of a hurricane's landfall with respect to high tides and the individual meteorological conditions of each storm (i.e. the storm surge) are the dominant factors in determining flood height," said Ben Horton, one of the study's co-authors, in an email conversation. "But the additional sea-level rise from 1788 and 1821 to Sandy in 2012 exaggerated and caused (more) flooding."

Using marsh sediments from nearby Barnegat Bay, N.J., the researchers determined the relative sea level at The Battery at the southern tip of Manhattan rose by about 20.1 inches between a storm in 1788 and Hurricane Sandy.

Of this increase, about 6 inches was due to the gradual settling of the land, which has been ongoing since the end of the last Ice Age, with the remainder being the result of global warming.

The impact of sea level rise on storm surge flooding is similar to raising the floor of a basketball court. The higher the floor, the easier it is for players to dunk the ball, so that even shorter players will be able to dunk. However, the floor hasn't been raised that far yet.

In an interview, co-author Andrew Kemp, who now teaches at Tufts University, said the 20-inch decrease in flood height if Sandy had struck in 1788 is a "pretty small number compared to how big a storm tide can be."

But as oceans rise, more storms will be able to clear that bar with less help from tides. New York and other coastal cities will see more extensive flooding from weaker storms, while stronger storms will more easily set storm tide records.

In June, a New York City climate panel reported that sea levels could rise at a faster rate than was forecast just a few years ago. New York Harbor could see up to 11 inches of sea level rise by the 2020s, and up to or more than 2.5 feet of sea level rise by the 2050s.

"When it does happen . . . you're going to need smaller and smaller storms to overtop those thresholds as you go forward in time," Kemp said. According to revised flood maps from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, hundreds of thousands more New Yorkers have been placed in the 100-year floodplain compared to the maps that existed when Hurricane Sandy struck.

With sea level rise, the city expects that up to one-quarter of all New York City's land area, with 800,000 residents, will be in the floodplain.

"If we do nothing, more than 40 miles of our waterfront could see flooding on a regular basis, just during normal high tide," New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said while rolling out the city's post-Sandy climate resilience plan in June.

"We can think of these things as tipping points and sea level rise will cause them to be exceeded more often in the future because the baseline for hurricanes is raised and storms with smaller surges and not necessarily arriving on the highest tides will be able to overtop those physical structures," Horton said.

LINK
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Transitioning later in the period.





Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 596. ncstorm:
Here tampa..I thought these graphics would show the "aggressiveness" of the CMC





yes im also seeing models having this storm close to us in tampa bay area..local mets already have rain chaces at 60% thurs-friday..that may go higher in days to come...what I don't want to see is a sharp right hand turn...im really remembering how charley fooled the mets and models...we'll see what happens, still days and days away.
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Quoting 587. Drakoen:


I think the HWRF might be to northeast biased. The 850mb vorticity does show things ramping up once the system gets past Jamaica, south of Cuba. Can we really trust the HWRF though? "The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. " (Jeff Masters) I'm siding with the GFS on this one at the moment.


I know what you mean. The best estimate at this time would be the panhandle but so many variables exist between now and a few days away. How strong it becomes is also a big unknown that will affect steering. For now it does not seem to be moving much.
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Quoting 587. Drakoen:


I think the HWRF might be to northeast biased. The 850mb vorticity does show things ramping up once the system gets past Jamaica, south of Cuba. Can we really trust the HWRF though? "The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. " (Jeff Masters) I'm siding with the GFS on this one at the moment.


GFS really isn't that far off from the Hwrf. Here's the steering at 120hrs.


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Quoting 571. congaline:
Tampa radio forecasters are already talking with way too much confidence about a tropical storm hitting the Panhandle later this week! How can they make such a forecast if NHC doesn't even try to predict that far into future of this potential system?


You're right, because most of the information they give us, usually comes from the NHC.(at least concerning trop storms) Most mets, do little forecasting on their own, (again concerning tropical storms) but rather make generalized statements like, "we're thinking this..." or it's looks like it may do this . . ." Once the nhc comes into play they are more definitive . What station in Tampa? Curious.
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Here tampa..I thought these graphics would show the "aggressiveness" of the CMC





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Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
tampa bay just may get some stormy weather out of this,i'd like to see wens model run..
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Well I see the CMC model is a little aggressive. Then again maybe not!

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TAFB @ 72 hours

I have a really hard time seeing anything more than a weak tropical storm coming out of this.

Until the ECMWF starts showing TCG, the NHC is going to be rather conservative with whatever congeals in the NW Caribbean.

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updated SPC..for day 2
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Quoting 507. Levi32:


I lived in Oklahoma this summer and our average high in July is 92F. We had 6 days during the month of July where the high temperature was at least 10F below the normal high for that date, from 3 separate troughs. It's called a cool-down. It happens. The rarity of weather tends to get exaggerated these days. We've had people treating perfectly average Texas heat like a rare heat wave this summer. It's getting ridiculous.
Consider yourself very fortunate that you were able to spend time in Oklahoma during a period of below-normal temps, instead of, say, July 2011, when that state suffered through the single hottest month on record for any state ever.

Even the longer-term forecasts still show normal-to-below normal temperatures for much of the US--and slightly above to far above normal temps for the majority of the globe:

outlook

But what I find truly ironic is that while you've been here cooling off, Alaska has experienced one of its hottest summers ever. Fairbanks has experienced 36 days at 80F or warmer, crushing the old record of 30 days set in 2004. And Anchorage has had at least 40 days at 70F or higher this summer. Now, that's ridiculous, if you ask me.
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NHC Marine Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 121800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL/NWW3 BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH WED...LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OFF NE FLORIDA COAST
ALONG 29N INTO NW GULF. GUIDANCE AGREE ON LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WED. RIDGE WEAKENS AS MAIN HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFT E ALLOWING
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT NW INTO EASTERN
GULF LATE WED. MODELS DIFFER THEREAFTER AS POSITION...TRACK...
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRES WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE GFS
BRINGING 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTER INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR MORE
MODERATE UKMET AND ECMWF BRINGING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRES FURTHER
W OF 87W. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING EVEN WEAKER LOW PRES EVEN
FURTHER W. UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE MAIN
FACT THAT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL BE WET AND POSSIBLY WINDY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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