Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 789 - 739

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

The Euro had Dorian going OTS, how did that work out? The NAM ok I'll give it credit since I don't want to hurt the little fellar's feelings since it sniffed out TS Lee, but I will bravely say those 2 models are out to lunch!
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
788. auburn (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
787. IKE
Afternoon discussion from the great city of Tallahassee,FL....

LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A long wave trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf Coast early in the period as a reinforcing short wave
in the northern plains drops into the trough, resulting in a closed
low over the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday. This low
gradually fills and weakens, leaving behind a weak trough for early
next week with an axis still to our west.

The end result is a prolonged period of rain for the southeast with
periods of heavy rain likely. Total rainfall from the GFS indicates
areas of rain up to 10 inches across the FL panhandle through
Monday, due in part to its development of a tropical cyclone in the
gulf which it brings into the FL panhandle Saturday. The Canadian
also generates a tropical system similar to the GFS, however the
ECWMF does not generate a tropical system and therefore depicts
rainfall totals through Monday of about 5 inches.

Confidence of a period of heavy rain is high, and if the
GFS-advertised tropical system does develop then local rainfall
amounts could be double or triple the current WPC 5.5" totals.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The mjo is really in our area now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local news meteorologists just said "nothing in the Caribbean to worry about."

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The development of this system will depend very strongly on the atmosphere well to the north and the location of Atlantic high pressure location


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Quoting 779. Camille33:
Link
New nam mexico bound!!
. Highly unlikely !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just had a nice seabreeze shower here..cooled it off for a few minutes..whew that sun is strong..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 774. Camille33:
Ecmwf has won on track once again as the sw vorticity is winning out and all new 18z models are focusing on this now!! Gfs fails once again.Mexico bound!
Didn't know Tropical Storm Erin was in the process of making landfall already? Where the heck have I been?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Quoting 761. toddbizz:


Not a chance way too far out and GOM is going looks to be real quiet this year...look towards the Atlantic and EC for high threat possibilities...we shall see...
. Please take your theory , to Vegas and bet on it !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
New nam mexico bound!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 762. TheDawnAwakening:


Go to the nhc.noaa.gov homepage, look on the left side column, go down to satellite, and then head into the central Atlantic zone of imagery and click on the visible satellite imagery.
13N, 34W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Japan Breaks National Heat Record. Chinese Heat Wave Continues
Posted by: Christopher C. Burt, 3:48 PM CDT on August 12, 2013



An all-time national heat record was set in Japan today (August 12th) when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto (part of Kochi Prefecture). The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. Tokyo endured its warmest daily minimum on August 11th with a low of 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan following a minimum of 30.8°C (87.4°F) at Itoigawa on August 22, 1990.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 718. DavidHOUTX:
What is wrong with the forecast discussions for Texas? They haven't been updated since yesterday...

Link


hmmm not sure. They're updated at their individual NWS sites.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70-75 W and along 15 N.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Ecmwf has won on track once again as the sw vorticity is winning out and all new 18z models are focusing on this now!! Gfs fails once again.Mexico bound!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm thinking we'll probably get eventual development out of this. It will be a mess- totally sheared, no west side convection, appearance more like a subtropical storm than a tropical one, etc.- but winds may end up getting stronger than some are thinking. I would say no more than 60mph or so, but that's not an unrealistic number if it develops. Water is plenty warm, it doesn't look like dry air will be an issue, and shear should let up just enough for us to see some sloppy development.



Potential track is anyone's guess at this point since there's really nothing formed yet but I'm thinking more east than most right now, maybe the FL panhandle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 769. Camille33:


My new forecast track and intensity this may be hit mexico as a big storm and then go to sw gulf and hit mexico again!!
. Wrong track!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 761. toddbizz:


Not a chance way too far out and GOM is going looks to be real quiet this year...look towards the Atlantic and EC for high threat possibilities...we shall see...
. Very doubtful on your theory !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 761. toddbizz:


Not a chance way too far out and GOM is going looks to be real quiet this year...look towards the Atlantic and EC for high threat possibilities...we shall see...
I have no idea what you are seeing, but there is no system in the western Caribbean, there is one in the southern Caribbean and eastern Caribbean Sea. Shear is high in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea and is dying down in the southern and western Caribbean Sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


My new forecast track and intensity this may be hit mexico as a big storm and then go to sw gulf and hit mexico again!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
768. LafLA
Quoting 633. LargoFl:
say folks..there isn't anything out there that could make this system stall out in the gulf for a few days is there?..the gulf waters are really warm,especially where its headed.


It isn't headed anywhere. It doesn't even exist yet...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 746. unknowncomic:


Big swirl in CATL starting to produce convection towards the center of the swirl.
I need to figure out why may generator isn't starting!


Did you drain the fuel out totally before storing it. Or do you use it regularly ?
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
Quoting 760. ncstorm:
You have a boat to get to work? ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Quoting 697. TimSoCal:


I'd take some of those as well. LA had a pathetic wet season this past winter, so we could definitely stand to catch up.


Oh yeah I heard. I grew up in Huntington Beach and remember the drought being horrible and then bam three months of solid rain in the winter and it was done. My friends out in Portland also said their winter was really dry and warm this year. Now that the East Coast is fairly good in the water department, we need some Pacific moisture to move in and help the states W/O the Mississippi. The agriculture def depends on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 742. clwstmchasr:


Totally agree. This is not a Charley type storm.


My point is Katrina, Rita, Charley, and Donna all exploded in the SE Gulf so to say this system will remain weak may not be realistic as this system will have an anticyclone over head once it enters the Nw Caribbean & SE Gulf.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 754. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Link to what you are looking at?


Go to the nhc.noaa.gov homepage, look on the left side column, go down to satellite, and then head into the central Atlantic zone of imagery and click on the visible satellite imagery.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 755. EyEtoEyE:
The weather system , is already in the Wetern Carribean , and what shear , if there is any it's minimal , just look at the cloud mass , it's congealing it should go to orange very soon ! And soon to be Erin , should form in 2 to 3 days , or less , I can see RI if it gets to the Western Herbert box , and it could be a cat 2 , maybe a weak 3 , by landfall from Mississippi to the West coast of Florida , that's my hunch !


Not a chance way too far out and GOM is going looks to be real quiet this year...look towards the Atlantic and EC for high threat possibilities...we shall see...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
Quoting 677. CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF would probably be closer to the GFS in terms of intensity if it wasn't persistent with shoving it into Mexico. I think it will be weak, 45kts at the absolute most, but if a surface low becomes established before reaching the GOMEX under that high TCHP then we might have something stronger.

People put way too much stock in a model that struggles horribly with insignificant tropical cyclones. That's why we have more than one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 708. chrisdscane:


Still a low TCFP, may increase over the next 24-48 hours.


A very low probability for TC formation...and the wishcasters need to relax for now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 743. Camille33:

10n and 80w!! You guys are looking at the wrong area new shear map = big trouble!!!


I agree this area needs to be watched.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The weather system , is already in the Wetern Carribean , and what shear , if there is any it's minimal , just look at the cloud mass , it's congealing it should go to orange very soon ! And soon to be Erin , should form in 2 to 3 days , or less , I can see RI if it gets to the Western Herbert box , and it could be a cat 2 , maybe a weak 3 , by landfall from Mississippi to the West coast of Florida , that's my hunch !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 726. TheDawnAwakening:


It's clearly seen on visible satellite imagery that it's elongated from west to east, but it's a closed surface circulation.


Link to what you are looking at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL isn't the nickname for the NAM = Not A Model?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the season will be right on schedule with 4 and possibly 5 named storms by August 15th? Also the environment seems to be changing to a more conducive one for tropical cyclogenesis in the MDR. I think we are well on our way class. Just not liking the setup for the endpoint of these systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Charley for comparison. Originated in the Southern Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 743. Camille33:

10n and 80w!! You guys are looking at the wrong area new shear map = big trouble!!!

is that 5 - 10 shear in 12 hours wow!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 681. RitaEvac:


I received the most less than one day total yesterday of 0.86" the most all summer in a day.


We had some thunderstorms yesterday and on Saturday roll through from the SE but no precip. Just virga. I figured as much seeing how hot it was and since they were all diurnal they made it inland just at the time the sun was going down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Big swirl in CATL starting to produce convection towards the center of the swirl.
I need to figure out why may generator isn't starting!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 724. CybrTeddy:
Washington, when you mean "all" of the models I think you just mean the GFS. Somehow I doubt it goes that far east. Can't wait for the NHC to tag this as an invest once we get a concrete area of circulation.


Circulation seems to organizing South of Haiti. If this is the case then watch this ride right up the west coast of FL. Very interesting.



LOOK SOUTH OF HAITI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 733. washingtonian115:
If shear isn't a big issue and it misses the Yucatan completely then perhaps a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane (74-80mph)
My thoughts exactly, and this is a timing issue, timing of the trough and how soon it breaks down the ridge and speed of the storm.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677

10n and 80w!! You guys are looking at the wrong area new shear map = big trouble!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 719. TheDawnAwakening:
Wind shear remains in the moderate range for e central Atlantic low, but will move into an area of decreasing wind shear and will allow the circulation to tighten up into a more consolidated low pressure system. This system could become Erin before our caribbean disturbance does.
It is also movin into hotter waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 728. washingtonian115:
I'm going with the best/more realistic case scenario.
I think taking the averages of the GFS, FIM, and CMC will give you your storm. The FIM is sandwiched in between which shows a moderate Tropical Storm. I know it is not wise to dismiss the other models, but both the Euro and NAM are initializing the Columbian Heat Low which I kind of find puzzling.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677

Viewing: 789 - 739

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.