Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL WAVE GOT MORE T.STORMS WITH IT
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 16 Comments: 31121
Quoting 809. washingtonian115:
Things would have to perfectly align themselves in order to see anything 100 mph.I think that if this disturbance misses land and slows down a bit with shear not being a major problem then perhaps a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane (74-80mph).
Entirely possible if it can establish itself with a LLC in the Caribbean and miss the Yucatan that we may see a stronger system. I'm not buying the GFS's trough it's showing. It's known to over-exaggerate.. I'll give it credit with Debby but it showed Debby becoming an elongated area of low pressure being merged into a front instead of becoming a 50kt tropical storm like it did. Remember this is August, not June. These things can happen. I doubt it will however mostly because the pattern in place favors a Yucatan landfall, and with the present shear in the Caribbean I'd be surprised if it established itself over the western Caribbean. That would favor a more westerly path, similar to what the Euro is showing (or is not showing).
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Quoting 826. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm talking about when it was still in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape-Verde Islands and it kept shooting Dorian off to the Northwest into the SAL and cooler sst. Maybe it got it right at the end of Dorian's life. To me the ECMWF will latch on when we finally have something to track, but I think it gets way to much credit for sniffing out cyclogensis. If you want to look at a model that does really good in that look at the GFS.


the GFS had Dorian dissipating in Cuba, Hispanalo, PR..name a Island, it was obliterated, even showing it going to texas once....all the models have struggled..I dont see a contender right now..
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Quoting 829. EyEtoEyE:
. Yes I can say it because the mass of clouds are not to east of them , they are west of the LA 's , this system is moving west , not east !


I'm talking about 14n 33.5w, not in the Caribbean Sea. Read my posts.
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Quoting 829. EyEtoEyE:
. Yes I can say it because the mass of clouds are not to east of them , they are west of the LA 's , this system is moving west , not east !


I don't think you two are on the same page here.
Different AOI's
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Quoting 828. toddbizz:


The big picture is no picture...unless the folks in the GOM region want to keep praying for a CAT 3-4 storm...guess what folks...not happening...
. Do you have a crystal ball , to tell us that ?
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Quoting 826. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm talking about when it was still in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape-Verde Islands and it kept shooting Dorian off to the Northwest into the SAL and cooler sst. Maybe it got it right at the end of Dorian's life. To me the ECMWF will latch on when we finally have something to track, but I think it gets way to much credit for sniffing out cyclogensis. If you want to look at a model that does really good in that look at the GFS.


So Gfs did not send it sw and hit islands and move sw into caribbean sea!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting 812. TheDawnAwakening:


Says who? You? Conditions are much more favorable now east of the Lesser Antilles, than west of them. So I don't know what you are looking at with that info.
. Yes I can say it because the mass of clouds are not to east of them , they are west of the LA 's , this system is moving west , not east !
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Quoting 727. Sfloridacat5:
The big picture.


The big picture is no picture...unless the folks in the GOM region want to keep praying for a CAT 3-4 storm...guess what folks...not happening...
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The blog seem humorous today. Its certainly better than when its quiet and the trolls come out to feast :D
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Quoting 819. ncstorm:


GT, the Euro was pretty much consistent on dorian..it did show it going on the west side of florida for a couple of runs but it always showing it going back to the NE and out to sea..
I'm talking about when it was still in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape-Verde Islands and it kept shooting Dorian off to the Northwest into the SAL and cooler sst. Maybe it got it right at the end of Dorian's life. To me the ECMWF will latch on when we finally have something to track, but I think it gets way to much credit for sniffing out cyclogensis. If you want to look at a model that does really good in that look at the GFS.
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Camille is seriously getting to me now, even though he does horrible forecasts, I could deal with him, he does know some stuff, but now after what I just saw, first it was dorian becoming Wilma, then it was this upcoming storm becoming charley, now he says its a mexico 70kt storm. He is cray cray
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Quoting 822. Hurricanes305:


We wont see much organization till Wednesday.


I agree.....likely will get an Invest sometime tomorrow tho.....Still not much confident in anything yet......I like to see the Euro Model at least show something.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting 811. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No I am not speaking bogus statements. It had Dorian going North into the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. LOL keep on making up stuff though I bet the blog is finding it real amusing.
Why not just ignored him? please
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Quoting 806. TampaSpin:
I am just not sure anything can develop with all the Shear. Might just see this continue right into Mexico.

HERE Is the 24hr Shear Forecast



Here is the 48hr Shear Forecast....you can see Shear is forecast to decrease!


We wont see much organization till Wednesday.
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New model coming in 30 minute.
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Quoting 811. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No I am not speaking bogus statements. It had Dorian going North into the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. LOL keep on making up stuff though I bet the blog is finding it real amusing.


GT, the Euro was pretty much consistent on dorian..it did show it going on the west side of florida for a couple of runs but it always showing it going back to the NE and out to sea..
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Camille, I said the exact same thing you just said like a week ago, and you called me a smuck. Man, you make 0 sense on here, and are the definition of a troll.
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Quoting 811. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No I am not speaking bogus statements. It had Dorian going North into the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. LOL keep on making up stuff though I bet the blog is finding it real amusing.

Heheheh you are wrong big time my friend!
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ok we have had a ton of comments on the "impending caribbean storm... any opinions on the area of interest in the atlantic? dont get me wrong but not everyone on here lives along the gulf coast.
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Utor strengthening again.
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 59m

@spann1st time I have seen EC/NCEP in line on MJO all summer. Increased amplitude into phase 1 would start some things, but 2,3 big tickets
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Quoting 797. Hurricanes305:


Hey Gro, thanks for your well detail analysis. They are always so consistent :)


Thanks 305, yours are always good,too! You know how to make an old man happy.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
Quoting 801. EyEtoEyE:
. It becomes Erin west of the LA 'S , not eat of them!


Says who? You? Conditions are much more favorable now east of the Lesser Antilles, than west of them. So I don't know what you are looking at with that info.
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Quoting 804. Camille33:

Ecmwf was 100% correct on Dorian it had it doing what it did! I have high resolution ecmwf from accuweather which I can't post but you are speaking on bogus statements.
No I am not speaking bogus statements. It had Dorian going North into the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. LOL keep on making up stuff though I bet the blog is finding it real amusing.
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Quoting 769. Camille33:


My new forecast track and intensity this may be hit mexico as a big storm and then go to sw gulf and hit mexico again!!


Lol, you flip flop more than anyone. Your track is what I said might happen, but no WAY in hell its a 70 kt storm, no offence, but you are by far the worst forecaster on here. Everything you do is a hurricane lol.
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Quoting 791. StormTrackerScott:
I think the problem is people on this blog have been spoiled the last several years with weak Gulf systems and I think our luck has now run out folks. Say what you want about me but I would not be surprised to see an 80 to 100 mph hurricane gunning for the Big Bend of FL come Sunday as steering is right at the west coast or FL Panhandl depending on which model you look at.
Things would have to perfectly align themselves in order to see anything 100+mph.I think that if this disturbance misses land and slows down a bit with shear not being a major problem then perhaps a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane (74-80mph).
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Ecmwf forecasted Dorean forming and kept it weak and killed it, while Gfs formed a big hurricane north of Puerto Rico! Gfs moved it sw all the while Ecmwf kept it will north of the Islands!! Ecmwf also kept showing it going from Bahamas to out to sea!!
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807. IKE

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
LMAO this blog is getting real entertaining.
It's been this way for years.....almost decades.
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I am just not sure anything can develop with all the Shear. Might just see this continue right into Mexico.

HERE Is the 24hr Shear Forecast



Here is the 48hr Shear Forecast....you can see Shear is forecast to decrease!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
LMAO this blog is getting real entertaining.
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Quoting 789. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The Euro had Dorian going OTS, how did that work out? The NAM ok I'll give it credit since I don't want to hurt the little fellar's feelings since it sniffed out TS Lee, but I will bravely say those 2 models are out to lunch!

Ecmwf was 100% correct on Dorian it had it doing what it did! I have high resolution ecmwf from accuweather which I can't post but you are speaking on bogus statements.
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Quoting 793. LargoFl:
the big story with this coming storm will be rainfall totals,on already soaking wet coastline..


Yep... currently searching for "ez build ark plans"
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802. hamla
where is levi and tropical tidbits when u need it
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Quoting 794. TheDawnAwakening:


This becomes TS Erin east of the Lesser Antilles islands, sometime before Thursday IMO.
. It becomes Erin west of the LA 'S , not eat of them!
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Quoting 792. Grothar:


Where is that, Nebraska?


Fort Myers Fl.
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Quoting 781. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Didn't know Tropical Storm Erin was in the process of making landfall already? Where the heck have I been?
Trolling like a champ.
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Quoting 779. Camille33:
Link
New nam mexico bound!!


NAM'S been very consistant (for several days or more) that the Low takes a southern route.
The GFS was also favoring the southern route into the BOC a couple of days ago.
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Quoting 784. Grothar:
The development of this system will depend very strongly on the atmosphere well to the north and the location of Atlantic high pressure location




Hey Gro, thanks for your well detail analysis. They are always so consistent :)
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Quoting 761. toddbizz:


Not a chance way too far out and GOM is going looks to be real quiet this year...look towards the Atlantic and EC for high threat possibilities...we shall see...
. Really the GOM is quiet this year , HMMN , what about Andrea , and Barry , quietly mistaken !
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Quoting 763. StormTrackerScott:


My point is Katrina, Rita, Charley, and Donna all exploded in the SE Gulf so to say this system will remain weak may not be realistic as this system will have an anticyclone over head once it enters the Nw Caribbean & SE Gulf.

You're complaining about not realistic? You've spent all day and dozens of posts forecasting where a storms going and how strong...when we have nothing even close to close to being a TD. There's not even 2 clouds in the Caribbean spinning. Why don't you take a break and allow the blog to learn from adult members like KMan, who's seen plenty, or Levi, who has actual schooling.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5582
Quoting 778. nocanesplease:
13N, 34W


This becomes TS Erin east of the Lesser Antilles islands, sometime before Thursday IMO.
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the big story with this coming storm will be rainfall totals,on already soaking wet coastline..
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Quoting 785. Sfloridacat5:
Local news meteorologists just said "nothing in the Caribbean to worry about."



Where is that, Nebraska?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
I think the problem is people on this blog have been spoiled the last several years with weak Gulf systems and I think our luck has now run out folks. Say what you want about me but I would not be surprised to see an 80 to 100 mph hurricane gunning for the Big Bend of FL come Sunday as steering is right at the west coast or FL Panhandle depending on which model you look at.
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Comparing shear big differences. Which one do you believe?
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The Euro had Dorian going OTS, how did that work out? The NAM ok I'll give it credit since I don't want to hurt the little fellar's feelings since it sniffed out TS Lee, but I will bravely say those 2 models are out to lunch!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.