Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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33 hrs.


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Quoting 880. Grothar:
Two more days until Blobzilla hits the Atlantic.


its been a "blob" season so far...maybe the NHC could start naming blobs since they started naming winter storms...
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Quoting 875. wunderkidcayman:
I smell Invest soon coming in the Caribbean in the air


If they bump it up to 20% for 48 hours at 8:00 yes....Which may happen...things have consolidated more this afternoon....still elongated but more consolidated
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in 48 hours shear won't be a problem in W Caribbean

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Quoting 879. ncstorm:
Farmers Almanac

August 2013
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

16th-19th. Fair skies.
20th-23rd. Thunderstorms an ongoing threat.
24th-27th. Widespread thunderstorm activity continues.
28th-31st. Fair and pleasant for Mississippi Valley and points east; a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic should stay well offshore.

September 2013
1st-3rd. Scattered showers may dampen holiday plans, then fair.
4th-7th. Hurricane threat along the Atlantic seaboard; otherwise generally fair, very warm and humid.
8th-11th. Thundery conditions.
12th-15th. Showery rains spread to the north and east.
16th-19th. Thunderstorms along Gulf Coast. Rain for Tennessee east, then fair.
20th-23rd. Hot and oppressively humid.
24th-27th. Fair, turning much cooler for Mississippi Valley east.
28th-30th. Widespread showers for most of the Southeast.

October 2013
1st-3rd. Fair and cold; frosts invade parts of the Southeast.
4th-7th. Wet Tennessee Valley. Heavy rains Gulf States.



PLEAASE NO.....it'll keep being rainy through October!!

We'll see what happens.
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No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎August ‎12, ‎2013, ‏‎2 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Mon, 12 Aug 2013 21:30:02 GMT
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Two more days until Blobzilla hits the Atlantic.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27532
Farmers Almanac

August 2013
12th-15th. Threat of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

16th-19th. Fair skies.
20th-23rd. Thunderstorms an ongoing threat.
24th-27th. Widespread thunderstorm activity continues.
28th-31st. Fair and pleasant for Mississippi Valley and points east; a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic should stay well offshore.

September 2013
1st-3rd. Scattered showers may dampen holiday plans, then fair.
4th-7th. Hurricane threat along the Atlantic seaboard; otherwise generally fair, very warm and humid.
8th-11th. Thundery conditions.
12th-15th. Showery rains spread to the north and east.
16th-19th. Thunderstorms along Gulf Coast. Rain for Tennessee east, then fair.
20th-23rd. Hot and oppressively humid.
24th-27th. Fair, turning much cooler for Mississippi Valley east.
28th-30th. Widespread showers for most of the Southeast.

October 2013
1st-3rd. Fair and cold; frosts invade parts of the Southeast.
4th-7th. Wet Tennessee Valley. Heavy rains Gulf States.
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2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific


green ball92E.INVEST



Central Pacific


green ball90C.INVEST



West Pacific


green ball11W.UTOR



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere


green ball90S.INVEST
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Still a mess I dont know why some are talking about something forming in the SW Caribbean where its will have to go through Central America to develop.



Anyways convection and lower convergence beginning to move south of Hispaniola where the wave axis is around 72W/73W if this continues I would not be surprise if a low pressure area develops later tonight.



Depending on where the low finally develops it may miss the Yucatan and head through the Yucatan channel where to high TCHP values are and becomes something significant. Still to early to know right now till we have a fixed center.

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I smell Invest soon coming in the Caribbean in the air
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Utor made the most of his overnight rebuilding process. JTW has upped his intensity back to CAT 3 prior to landfall well southwest of Hong Kong.



CLICK FOR LOOP
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18z GFS 6 hrs.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013


NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A SHEARED TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTH INTO
THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THIS
WOULD NOT REALLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER...BESIDES POSSIBLY BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR EARLIER. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAKER AND DEVELOPS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WOULD STILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE
STILL IN THE FORECAST.
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THE BIG HURRICANE IN 300 HOURS FROM NOW.
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870. auburn (Mod)
Please do NOT accuse another blogger of being someone else unless you have proof of such,and then you should only contact Admin or one of the Mods with this information so that they can be dealt with if they are circumventing a ban..thanks everyone.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 548 Comments: 51252
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867. IKE
This should be an invest soon.....

EDIT...I'm talking about the Caribbean blob......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting 862. GeorgiaStormz:


Im sorry


no apologies needed..I wasnt nice myself in responding to you..
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Thanks Mods..
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Quoting 857. Tropicsweatherpr:
Low convergence increasing south of Hispanola.

The crow is thawing out ready to be served to those who still think the SW Caribbean monsoonal low will win out.
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Quoting 856. ncstorm:


um hmm..also when I ask Admin and Mods a question and someone other than them answers..


Im sorry
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859. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 851. ncstorm:
Mods/Admin, anyway we can get a filter for the community activity to not see names that we put on ignore..



Nope.Not at this time.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 548 Comments: 51252
Quoting 851. ncstorm:
Mods/Admin, anyway we can get a filter for the community activity to not see names that we put on ignore..

12 hrs of peace init
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Low convergence increasing south of Hispanola.

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Quoting 853. GeorgiaStormz:



Does it really bother you that much?


um hmm..also when I ask Admin and Mods a question and someone other than them answers..
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854. IKE
***looks for ignore link***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting 851. ncstorm:
Mods/Admin, anyway we can get a filter for the community activity to not see names that we put on ignore..




Does it really bother you that much?
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Quoting 827. Hurricanes305:
The blog seem humorous today. Its certainly better than when its quiet and the trolls come out to feast :D



I ignore most post.....been here long enough to know who to take serious.....YOU KNOW!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
Mods/Admin, anyway we can get a filter for the community activity to not see names that we put on ignore..

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Quoting 836. ncstorm:


the GFS had Dorian dissipating in Cuba, Hispanalo, PR..name a Island, it was obliterated, even showing it going to texas once....all the models have struggled..I dont see a contender right now..
Keep an eye on the FIM. Dr. Masters even mentioned the competitiveness of the FIM-9 when it came to track. That may eventually turn out to be one of the more reliable models in the future.
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Quoting 837. CybrTeddy:

Entirely possible if it can establish itself with a LLC in the Caribbean and miss the Yucatan that we may see a stronger. I'm not buying the GFS's trough it's showing. It's known to over-exaggerate.. I'll give it credit with Debby but it showed Debby becoming an elongated area of low pressure being merged into a front instead of becoming a 50kt+ tropical storm like it did. Remember this is August, not June. These things can happen. I doubt it will however mostly because the pattern in place favors a Yucatan landfall and at the present shear in the Caribbean I'd be surprised if it established itself over the western Caribbean. That would favor a more westerly path, similar to what the Euro is showing (or is not showing).
We'll see if a dominate low level circulation can form tonight into tomorrow if it doesn't want to get buried into land.
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Quoting 842. SuperStorm093:
Stop posting the TW coming off of africa and acting like its a big deal, they have been doing that for 2 straight weeks and all die out. This one will also.


Is that a fact? I think this has as good as any other TW to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 783. EyEtoEyE:
. Highly unlikely !

Very likely!
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Quoting 811. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No I am not speaking bogus statements. It had Dorian going North into the ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. LOL keep on making up stuff though I bet the blog is finding it real amusing.


LMAO! off they are hilarious :D once the night crew start rolling in then we can start handling business.
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Camille should literally be ignored by every member here.
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Quoting 841. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Did wayyy better than any other model in showing cyclogenesis. Oh yeah remember what happened during TS Debby last year? GFS was left out to dry and was being humiliated on this blog, guess what it nailed the heck out of Debby's track.


Again you don't have access to high resolution ecmwf I do!! It showed it forming when gfs dropped it!
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Quoting 826. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm talking about when it was still in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape-Verde Islands and it kept shooting Dorian off to the Northwest into the SAL and cooler sst. Maybe it got it right at the end of Dorian's life. To me the ECMWF will latch on when we finally have something to track, but I think it gets way to much credit for sniffing out cyclogensis. If you want to look at a model that does really good in that look at the GFS.


Link
Watch loop and follow low!
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Stop posting the TW coming off of africa and acting like its a big deal, they have been doing that for 2 straight weeks and all die out. This one will also.
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Quoting 831. Camille33:


So Gfs did not send it sw and hit islands and move sw into caribbean sea!!!!!!!!!!
Did wayyy better than any other model in showing cyclogenesis. Oh yeah remember what happened during TS Debby last year? GFS was left out to dry and was being humiliated on this blog, guess what it nailed the heck out of Debby's track.
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Quoting 838. clwstmchasr:


Wow, what a relief. That is great news! I guess I'll ignore the models forecasting a GOM storm.
marcuskyle = nostorminflorida/wrongasusual/etc.
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TROPICAL WAVE GOT MORE T.STORMS WITH IT
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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