Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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1189. Patrap
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1188. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 1182. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BERG


Did I imagine that earlier it said a tropical depression has formed earlier today...
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Quoting 1175. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This is what I mean in post 1165 there is a low attached to the monsoon trough that is competing with our Tropical Wave at the present time.




Remember, we discussed the monsoonal trough west of Columbia retrograding southerly from 10n would likely aid development. It appeared earlier today to be moving(maybe a dmin/dmax thing) southerly, but not so much right now. We'll likely see the same kind of motion along about or shortly after dmax tomorrow And so, this is where timing will become more critical. (It's always about timing.). ;) Too, that would also lend credence to the more northwesterly motion, imo, given the shallow troughing shown on the sfc map. TX may get some rain yet.



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1186. Patrap
Main article: Hurricane Juan (1985)




An upper-level low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico developed into a tropical depression on October 26.
By later that day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Juan. Juan re-curved several times, but eventually moved north-northwest on October 27. The storm strengthened and by early on October 28, it became a hurricane. Later that day, sustained winds peaked at 85 mph (140 km/h).

Between October 28 and October 29, the storm executed a cyclonic loop just offshore Louisiana. Shortly before 1200 UTC on that day, Juan made landfall near Morgan City, Louisiana as a minimal hurricane. It quickly weakened back to a tropical storm. The storm began to execute another cyclonic loop, reaching the Lafayette area before curving back out to the Gulf of Mexico on October 30. The storm briefly remained offshore, before a second landfall on the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana early on October 31. Juan re-emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, before yet another landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama. The storm weakened inland and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1.

Juan produced large waves at oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, causing several damaged platforms, vessels, and killed nine people. The erratic motion of the storm offshore and inland over Louisiana resulted in heavy rainfall, peaking at 17.78 inches (452 mm) in Galliano.

Significant flood ensued, damaging 5,000 homes and 100 businesses. In Jefferson Parish alone, heavy rainfall and storm surge combined flooded at least 2,233 homes, 3,100 cars, and 100 businesses. In southern Mississippi, rainfall exceeding 10 inches (250 mm) in some areas inundated 342-352 homes and 6 businesses.

The remnants of Juan also produced extensive flooding in the Appalachia region of the United States. Flood levels along rivers such as the James, Potomac, and Roanoke Rivers in Virginia rivaled that of Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Agnes in 1972. In the state of Virginia alone, damaged exceeded $800 million. West Virginia was also significantly impacted. Many streams and rivers rose to 100-500 year flood levels, with some cresting at record heights. As a result, whole towns, roads, and bridges were swept away.

Nearly 9,000 homes were damaged, 4,000 of which were destroyed. Losses reached $577 million. Overall, Juan caused $2.8 billion in damage and 74 fatalities, 1 in Texas, 11 in Louisiana, 1 in Pennsylvania, 39 in West Virginia, and 22 in Virginia.
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1185. LargoFl
Navgem model puts it into new Orleans..another model puts it into the bay of Campeche then up into texas..and of course the GFS puts it into the panhandle..lol..stay tuned...I cannot post this..maybe you can................http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ analysis/models/navgem/2013081112/navgem_mslp_wind _watl.html
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39221
Quoting 1179. louisianaboy444:


Actually quite the contrary, the easterly winds are stronger in the Central Caribbean than they are in the Western Caribbean. This slowing down of the winds would cause speed convergence in the Western Caribbean and thus, allow convection to form


Convergence is only half the problem or issue when it comes to potential convection development, upper level divergence is the second pea to the pod. You need upper level divergent flow to remove the air faster than it's converging that way you can get lowering pressures and winds increasing the convergent flow.
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Issued: Aug 12, 2013 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. The system is a bit less organized than 6 hours ago. Development of this disturbance, if any, is expected to be slow to occur, as it moves westward at about 15 mph over the next couple days. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
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Quoting 1171. OhNoLa:


Great link. Thanks a bunch/merci beaucoup! Having lived in south LA most of my life I always thought that I knew a good bit about tropical weather until I started lurking here.


No problem. Me as well. Coming here I realized how much I didn't know...

Also recommend Levi's site Tropical Tidbits Link

His short videos help me pull together and understand a lot of the posts and graphics from this site.
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1180. Patrap
Hurricane Juan here in 85 was a Hybrid, October 29th in this image.

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Quoting 1162. chrisdscane:



The easterly flow in the Carb needs to slow down to allow air to pile up so deep convection can form, present shear could hinder developement for the next 24-36 hours, like miami said doesnt matter how warm the water is is upper lvl conditions arent good it will not form, simple.


Actually quite the contrary, the easterly winds are stronger in the Central Caribbean than they are in the Western Caribbean. This slowing down of the winds would cause speed convergence in the Western Caribbean and thus, allow convection to form
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Hmm, I see that the JTWC has Utor at 105kt just prior to landfall south of Hong Kong, right before it hit Luzon they had it at 95kt by this point, and it's at 95 now in the S. China Sea... Those are some heavily populated areas, China took some heavy hits last year and people need to take every precaution with this one, very dangerous storm ://
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thanks levi, masterfull as always.
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Quoting 1159. Patrap:
1156. TheDawnAwakening

Follow your dream TDA, it's yours to be had,..and good luck as well.

And thank you for your service to America.



Leaving the Air Force was the hardest and easiest decision of my life. Thank you pat.

I'll tell you why, first of all it's the hardest because my life was going great, I was living it up with my friends and had a good time with everyone, work was hard, but the people made it fun, I made a boatload of friends, and it was the easiest because I could no longer continue to put myself and others in danger, the sicker I got the more volatile I became, but I never resorted to drugs or alcohol. Things happened that I'm both proud of and not so proud of, simply put I miss my friends, but don't miss the job.
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This is what I mean in post 1165 there is a low attached to the monsoon trough that is competing with our Tropical Wave at the present time.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8435
1174. Levi32
Good evening.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, August 12th, with Video
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gt=thanks
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We'll see how the dry air in the bahamas interacts with the system, theese types of circulations tend to be large so there is a chance it could digest some of that dry air we'll have to wait and see.
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1171. OhNoLa
Quoting 1151. LAbonbon:


Hi, OhNoLa - not sure if you're still lurking. Great moniker, by the way. Have you been to the NWS JetStream page? It's an on-line 'school' for weather, and includes a section on tropical weather. Also, in the Appendices there's an extended acronym list, as well as a great glossary. I highly recommend the site; I continuously refer back to it while trying to follow the bloggers. A lot of this stuff may be old hat for lots of these guys, but not to me :)

Link


Great link. Thanks a bunch/merci beaucoup! Having lived in south LA most of my life I always thought that I knew a good bit about tropical weather until I started lurking here.
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2010 wasn't a good analog year for SST anomalies during the heart of August. I need to do further research on this subject, but my main point stands.
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Quoting 1160. marcuskyle:
so could it make 40% by next week before making landfall as a td

oooh
Downcaster I see lol

No it goes up as each TWO comes out it becomes a TD then TS landfall as Moderate TS
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Quoting 1155. CybrTeddy:


Dry air doesn't appear to be a problem from what I can see.
The only thing I can come up with at the moment is that this is going to be monsoonal in nature and those take a while to consolidate mainly because they encompass a large area. If that area in the SW Caribbean can scoot off to the west and leave the Tropical Wave south of Hispaniola behind then I think we will have a really good chance of seeing development before this gets into the GOM.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8435



The easterly flow in the Carb needs to slow down to allow air to pile up so deep convection can form, present shear could hinder developement for the next 24-36 hours, like miami said doesnt matter how warm the water is is upper lvl conditions arent good it will not form, simple.
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1161. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39221
1159. Patrap
1156. TheDawnAwakening

Follow your dream TDA, it's yours to be had,..and good luck as well.

And thank you for your service to America.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10%/30% LOW-MED getting higher and higher

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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1157. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
412 PM CDT Monday Aug 12 2013


Long term...


No much change in thinking from the previous forecast package is
expected. Thursday is expected to remain on the wet side with the
frontal boundary and shortwaves moving in from the northwest.
Some drier air should start to work in from the northwest Friday
and over the weekend which will lower the rain chances. The most
likely scenario is a tropical wave will move west across the
Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche Thursday night through the
weekend.


Here is the previous long term forecast

discussion...well now the
extended portion of the forecast. Medium range models continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the eastern Continental U.S. With a front
dropping into the area but its the tropics where the models diverge.
One thing to note is the sensible weather that both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) advertise is fairly close so surprisingly will not deviate
much from the mex with the exception of the winds.


Wednesday through Friday...the main issue will be the deepening of the l/west
trough just east of the MS valley dominating much of the eastern Continental U.S..
this will keep the region under northwest flow and actually push a cold
front into the area Wednesday night/Thu. The northwest flow will send multiple
disturbances through the area while the front will provide a ll
focus and thus rain chances will remain quite high Wednesday and Thursday.
Moving into Friday the front is being advertised to push to the coast
with slightly drier air moving in from the north. This should
finally lead to lower rain chances for the northwestern half of the County Warning Area Friday.


Heading into the weekend the biggest question is this wave in the
Caribbean. The GFS made the biggest change over the last 24 hours with
respect to the tropics while the European model (ecmwf) is consistent with nothing really
developing. The GFS moves the tropical wave currently in the
eastern/central Caribbean to the west until it reaches the far western
Caribbean and then starts to turn it into the trough in the Gulf. By
late Sat a surface low over the central/N-cntrl Gulf develops and then
begins to move to the NE and into the Alabama/Florida coast as a tropical
system or possibly a hybrid. The GFS is plausible but not buying why
such a weak system would start to turn right and re-curve in the
Gulf. Typically weaker systems without a well defined middle level
structure dont tend to follow the steering currents as much and will
just keep moving west...which is what the European model (ecmwf) does. In fact the
European model (ecmwf) never even gets the wave north of 20n latitude. If this wave does
not develop before it approaches the Yucatan then the European model (ecmwf) makes
far more since and thus why we are using the European model (ecmwf) winds right now
for Fri-sun. If the wave can get somewhat organized in the Caribbean
then we will need to closely watch this system and the GFS and
Canadian may be right. /Cab/
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Quoting 1125. Patrap:
And my Fav from a talented child.

A very good one I might add.





Throughout high school I doodled with hurricane and snowstorm maps, perhaps taking away energy from my studies during school. I didn't care though, I was going to become a meteorologist until you realized that school cost too much money and had to go through the Air Force only to find out through almost two years of duty you have this mental illness and can no longer function in e military, so that's my quick life story, so you all know that I have one year of college under my belt and military training, but it was the Air Force and I got sick. I love meteorology and hope to go back to school once again.
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Quoting 1154. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok warm sst, high tchp, good mid to upper level support. How is dry air looking?


Dry air doesn't appear to be a problem from what I can see.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
Quoting 1148. CybrTeddy:


In this case however, the mid to upper level winds are indeed conducive for development - at least in the western Caribbean.
Ok warm sst, high tchp, good mid to upper level support. How is dry air looking?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8435
Quoting 998. OhNoLa:
Hi! Long time casual and occasional lurker, first time poster. Since it appears hurricane season is on the brink of really ramping up, can any of y'all recommend a book along the lines of "Meteorology for Dummies"? The alphabet soup of acronyms and the various maps that are posted without explanation are confusing for a noob like me. Thanks!


Hi, OhNoLa - not sure if you're still lurking. Great moniker, by the way. Have you been to the NWS JetStream page? It's an on-line 'school' for weather, and includes a section on tropical weather. Also, in the Appendices there's an extended acronym list, as well as a great glossary. I highly recommend the site; I continuously refer back to it while trying to follow the bloggers. A lot of this stuff may be old hat for lots of these guys, but not to me :)

Link
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1150. LargoFl
NOW UP TO 30% OVER 5 DAYS.........ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39221
Quoting 1120. MiamiHurricanes09:
High TCHP values and warm SSTs are virtually irrelevant if mid to upper-level dynamics are not conducive for development.


In this case however, the mid to upper level winds are indeed conducive for development - at least in the western Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
1147. gator23
Quoting 1111. Stormchaser121:
According to KFDM 6 this will NOT be a TX storm. So...looks like el droughto continues :/ Dead gum high pressure GET OUT OF THE WAY WE NEED RAIN!

Local TV in ur area gives forecasts of storms that havent formed yet?
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1146. Patrap
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may go up to 20% at 2 or 8:00 am tomorrow
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2209
I don't think we should be overly concerned about this system wind-wise. Rapid intensification is always a possibility in the western Caribbean given the ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures...coupled with favorable upper-air dynamics (like what is being forecast)...but it matters little if we don't have a system with an organized core to take advantage of it. I doubt we have any decent core until it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, at which time it may start to be sheared from the front to its north. However, I wouldn't rule out a strong tropical storm. This setup is better than Andrea's which was a 65 mph tropical storm.
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Back later
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Quoting 1120. MiamiHurricanes09:
High TCHP values and warm SSTs are virtually irrelevant if mid to upper-level dynamics are not conducive for development.
We know that.lol.We saw that in 2009 when shear in the caribbean and gulf were screaming for most of the season.However if shear is low and (dry air doesn't seem to be a problem) perhaps a even stronger system?.I think if the worst case scenario happens then maybe a minimal hurricane.
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There are three maximum areas of high oceanic heat content, 1.) western Caribbean Sea, south and southwest of Cuba and just near or west of Isle de Youth; 2.) central GOM loop current eddy, in the west central GOM, and 3.) the Bahamas through just north of Puerto Rico. There is a four region of high oceanic heat resource in the Atlantic, just it's near Bermuda in the central Atlantic Ocean likely due in part to the warming nature of the Bermuda High where subsidence warms the boundary layer which eventually warms the oceanic surface layer.

I say this in part due to the four favorable areas of tropical cyclone tracks, the Caribbean Sea, GOM, the northern Greater Antilles and then eventually the hole in the A/B high in which hurricanes are recurved out to sea in the central Tropical to sub tropical North Atlantic Ocean. However unlike 2010, 2013 exerts a presence of cold Neutral ENSO conditions and potentially strong +NAO conditions in the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Strong positive NAO conditions allow a quick warming Northeastern US and Canada allowing sea surface temperatures to rebound quickly off the Northeastern US coastline. However these warming anomalies are centered more closely towards 60-70w instead of 65-75w, meaning there is room for escape up the east coast of the us favoring a Northeastern US landfall this year. These SST anomaly patterns can help us determine where ridging and troughing sets up during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Again this process is still being heavily researched by myself, but not every storm supports your theories, so you have to go wi the median.
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1139. gator23
Quoting 1125. Patrap:
And my Fav from a talented child.

A very good one I might add.





How long did it take u to draw that? ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.