Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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1389. beell
Quoting 1385. MississippiWx:


As usual, you are one of the smartest ones here. :-)


Oh you know how to play also Mississippi. Never say too much!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1378. FIUStormChaser:


I read the play with these three witches in high school, I forgot the name though.


MacBeth, I believe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. Drakoen
Quoting 1379. MississippiWx:


Scott, for whatever reason, you've had a serious problem with Levi for years now. The only thing you can hold against him is the fiasco with Debby last year or whenever it was. Literally every model except the GFS pointed to Texas. He deserves more respect than what you give.


What exactly happened with Debby last year? Can't remember. Care to refresh my memory?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Quoting 1379. MississippiWx:


Scott, for whatever reason, you've had a serious problem with Levi for years now. The only thing you can hold against him is the fiasco with Debby last year or whenever it was. Literally every model except the GFS pointed to Texas. He deserves more respect than what you give.
I would like to go fishing in Alaska. The salmon should be running rampid right now.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844
Quoting 1383. beell:
beell has decided his work here on the blog tonight is finished...
;-)


As usual, you are one of the smartest ones here. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1381. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1012-1014 mb. in the Gulf in 3 days wouldn't be that hard to penetrate considering we have an actual Tropical Cyclone by that point. 1015-1017 mb. over Texas seems to protect them as usually is the case a ridge builds in behind a trough and the 1016 mb. is offshore the East Coast of FL. When does a new TAFB come out?



That shows the low forming at the lower end of the wave-axis, but as we all know it could form anywhere along it. A minor N-S shift in Low formation position could have a large affect on the track.
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1383. beell
beell has decided his work here on the blog tonight is finished...
;-)
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Quoting 1359. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This seems like it will come down to timing. There is a weakness especially for a stronger storm to go through between the 2 highs.




If and when the storm develops, its steering will not depend on the high to its west, unless it gets trapped on the west side of it, but in front of the weakness to its north and east. And, a strengthening system will move more quickly to the north.

Think about it. There's high pressure to its west - can it go through it? Nope. But, it can and will go up to it depending on any weakness between the two high pressures. But the high pressure to the west of it is not the guiding force. The guiding force will be the high pressure to which it's already adjoined, hence the guidance to the immediate weakness north and east of any system. Assume the weakness was very large - do you think a storm would continue to track towards the high west of the weakness? No, it would not. It would immediately follow the most northeastern weakness poleward.
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1012-1014 mb. in the Gulf in 3 days wouldn't be that hard to penetrate considering we have an actual Tropical Cyclone by that point. 1015-1017 mb. over Texas seems to protect them as usually is the case a ridge builds in behind a trough and the 1016 mb. is offshore the East Coast of FL. When does a new TAFB come out?

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8186
1380. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1366. Grothar:
Here comes Blobzilla.


almost time for his bath lets see if it likes the water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1364. StormTrackerScott:
I guess me having a met degree means I don't know what I'm talking about as Levi would say. I think the guy is having a power struggle.


Scott, for whatever reason, you've had a serious problem with Levi for years now. The only thing you can hold against him is the fiasco with Debby last year or whenever it was. Literally every model except the GFS pointed to Texas. He deserves more respect than what you give.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1352. BaltimoreBrian:
The scene: The Atlantic, at 10 N 20 W in a rocking boat

The time: The ides of August at the witching hour

Thunder rumbling in background. The waxing quarter moon has just set

The three meteorology students prepare their storm-casting spell.....


Levi: Thrice the brinded cat hath mew'd.

Jedkins: Thrice and once, the hedge-pig whin'd.

Drakoen: Harpier cries: 'tis time! 'tis time!

Levi: Round about the caldron go;
In the poison'd entrails throw.
Toad, that under cold stone,
Days and nights has thirty-one;
Swelter'd venom sleeping got,
Boil thou first i' the charmed pot!


All: Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.


Jedkins: Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble


All: Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.


Drakoen: Scale of dragon; tooth of wolf;
Witches' mummy; maw and gulf
Of the ravin'd salt-sea shark;
Root of hemlock digg'd i the dark;
Liver of putrescent gnu;
Gall of goat, and slips of yew
Sliver'd in the moon's eclipse;
Nose of jerk, and Babar's lips;
Finger of birth-strangled babe
Ditch-deliver'd by a drab,
Make the gruel thick and slab:
Add thereto a tiger's chaudron,
For the ingrediants of our caldron.


All: Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.

Jedkins: Cool it with a baboon's blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.



Special web cam feed of the spell casting! Koritheman shows up at the end :)


I read the play with these three witches in high school, I forgot the name though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

1361. Drakoen 3:11 AM GMT on August 13, 2013 +1




Quoting 1357. kmanislander:


Huh ??

The low is now far South. This would have to be a new low then to head off to the SW.


The low is at position small x and moves to position big X.


small x to the big X moving in direction of the arrow
yes that's correct


Could you toss me a white flag please LOL.
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Quoting 1367. StormTrackerScott:
The only system the Euro has nailed over the last 2 years is Sandy.


Remember, they are global models not just ones specialized for tropical cyclones in the atlantic basin. That certainly isn't the only cyclonic storm on the planet in the last year that it has accurately predicted :)
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Quoting 1370. Levi32:


Tough crowd tonight.
If you take me Fishing in Alaska like Drakoen then we could call a truce.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844


Typhoon Utor bands approaching Hong Kong
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I think everyone here needs to realize the importance of when this system develops into a tropical cyclone. If conditions atmospherically present themselves favorably, then when this circulation center reaches the NWrn Caribbean Sea, rapid intensification can occur. The ceiling is potentially limitless in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Wind shear and dry air become an issue towards landfall if the trough is more pronounced.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3892
1372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

1361. Drakoen 3:11 AM GMT on August 13, 2013 +1




Quoting 1357. kmanislander:


Huh ??

The low is now far South. This would have to be a new low then to head off to the SW.


The low is at position small x and moves to position big X.


small x to the big X moving in direction of the arrow
yes that's correct
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1326. Relix:
Wow lots of old timers here. We even have a Levi vs Drak discussion going on! Finally.... I wait one year for this haha! Good night everybody. Looking at that wave around 30W and Blobzilla; maybe they could pull something out.
. I will take Levi any day , and all the time !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1370. Levi32
Quoting 1364. StormTrackerScott:
I guess me having a met degree means I don't know what I'm talking about as Levi would say. I think the guy is having a power struggle.

Quoting 1368. Drakoen:


A fellow met :)


Tough crowd tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1361. Drakoen:


The low is at position small x and moves to position big X.


I understand that is what you said but the earlier map had the existing low in the very far SW Caribbean so assuming what you say is correct for a low to move
towards the SW to where a low was positioned earlier today it would have to be a new feature.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1368. Drakoen
Quoting 1364. StormTrackerScott:
I guess me having a met degree means I don't know what I'm talking about as Levi would say. I think the guy is having a power struggle.


A fellow met :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
The only system the Euro has nailed over the last 2 years is Sandy.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844
1366. Grothar
Here comes Blobzilla.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Quoting 1358. StormTrackerScott:
I see levi32 has found someone else to argue about in regards to this deep trough digging in over the Mississippi. Valley. Seems Levi is still stuck on Debby's track with wanting to send it to Mexico. This trough is so deep that highs will approach some 10 to 20 degrees below average.


My high temps for the next 7 days:

Tuesday-93
Wednesday-90
Thursday-91
Friday-93
Saturday-92
Sunday-93
Monday-94

These are very much average for this time of the year, with lows 70 or higher.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess me having a met degree means I don't know what I'm talking about as Levi would say. I think the guy is having a power struggle.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844
Quoting 1333. sporteguy03:

I'll pass I have a huge sinkhole across the street from me that is the last thing I need.


Yeah that certainly wouldn't be good. I just hope for normal rain for what's left of the rainy season, after which we should dry out, climatologically.
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Quoting 1338. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The ECMWF depicts a broad system that never consolidates much and takes the southern low as the main low and crashes it into Central America, whereas the GFS takes the northern low as the main low and links it up with the front. I would take the GFS in a situations like this because we may have on our hands another shallow system and tends to show it better on the higher resolution grid.


My experience with ECMWF though is that it occasionally struggles with weak disorganized systems because it appears to initialize them poorly at times. I recall it did so with Debby and Andrea for a good while. Poor initialization rapidly compounds into large errors thanks to deterministic chaos. However, it has much greater resolution than the GFS which becomes an aid overall, since it on average is still the superior model and handles well developed cyclones the best overall.

The GFS is in close second though, and I sometimes prefer it in certain situations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1361. Drakoen
Quoting 1357. kmanislander:


Huh ??

The low is now far South. This would have to be a new low then to head off to the SW.


The low is at position small x and moves to position big X.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Quoting 1358. StormTrackerScott:
I see levi32 has found someone else to argue about in regards to this deep trough digging in over the Mississippi. Valley. Seems Levi is still stuck on Debby's track with wanting to send it to Mexico. This trough is so deep that highs will approach some 10 to 20 degrees below average.


I am almost positive they won't dip to the latter value. Way too aclimatological.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1351. moonlightcowboy:


You will never see a storm bust through a 1016mb of high pressure. You may see a weak system, like Dorian, get trapped underneath subsidence, but that is a misnomer, an anomaly, doesn't occur that often.
This seems like it will come down to timing. There is a weakness especially for a stronger storm to go through between the 2 highs.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8186
I see levi32 has found someone else to argue about in regards to this deep trough digging in over the Mississippi. Valley. Seems Levi is still stuck on Debby's track with wanting to send it to Mexico. This trough is so deep that highs will approach some 10 to 20 degrees below average.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844
Quoting 1356. Drakoen:


You have it backwards. Little x to big X. :)


Huh ??

The low is now far South. This would have to be a new low then to head off to the SW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1356. Drakoen
Quoting 1354. kmanislander:


In fact the map has the SW Caribbean low moving to the NE to merge with the AOI.



You have it backwards. Little x to big X. :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Because Utor has strengthend quicker than expected, the intensity forecast has been upped a bit.



Expected to hit Category 4 intensity once again.

P.S:

Navy updated the 00z again to

11W UTOR 130813 0000 18.5N 115.3E WPAC 100 948

So at 100kts, rather than 95kts from the previous update 00z update.
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Quoting 1340. Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z Surface Analysis has Low Pressure closer to the wave axis.



In fact the map has the SW Caribbean low moving to the NE to merge with the AOI.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1353. Grothar
This is like watching Dempsey and Tunney all over again.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
The scene: The Atlantic, at 10 N 20 W in a rocking boat

The time: The ides of August at the witching hour

Thunder rumbling in background. The waxing quarter moon has just set

The three meteorology students prepare their storm-casting spell.....


Levi: Thrice the brinded cat hath mew'd.

Jedkins: Thrice and once, the hedge-pig whin'd.

Drakoen: Harpier cries: 'tis time! 'tis time!

Levi: Round about the caldron go;
In the poison'd entrails throw.
Toad, that under cold stone,
Days and nights has thirty-one;
Swelter'd venom sleeping got,
Boil thou first i' the charmed pot!


All: Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.


Jedkins: Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble


All: Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.


Drakoen: Scale of dragon; tooth of wolf;
Witches' mummy; maw and gulf
Of the ravin'd salt-sea shark;
Root of hemlock digg'd i the dark;
Liver of putrescent gnu;
Gall of goat, and slips of yew
Sliver'd in the moon's eclipse;
Nose of jerk, and Babar's lips;
Finger of birth-strangled babe
Ditch-deliver'd by a drab,
Make the gruel thick and slab:
Add thereto a tiger's chaudron,
For the ingrediants of our caldron.


All: Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.

Jedkins: Cool it with a baboon's blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.



Special web cam feed of the spell casting! Koritheman shows up at the end :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1345. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is not what the pattern has been like this season the extension of the A-B High has been hugging the East Coast of FL. A persistent trough could be found in between the A-B High and the Central Plains High. The favored track is a Panhandle of FL. track. We had the same thing with Dorian, lots of people thought the storm would take a track towards Hispaniola, but they were following the low level steering the mid level steering and pressures are different. So 1016 mb. might be confined to surface pressure whereas mid-level and upper levels it's more weaker.


It has nothing to do with a pattern. All storms want to move poleward, and will always seek out the weakness. Yes, steering will depend on the strength of a storm, but you will never see a storm bust through a 1016mb of high pressure. Most storms move east to west and north around the periphery of any high pressure to its north and east. You may see a weak system, like Dorian, get trapped underneath subsidence, but that is a misnomer, an anomaly, doesn't occur that often.
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no more storms on here
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ROFL! NCSTORM!!!
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.
Nice work so far.
Keep the hands high and the models low.
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It looks to me that the GFS assumes the present

weakness over SE La/ S. Ala. will remain in place

and the E Conus trough will absorb whatever our

disturbance in the Carib. becomes.
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1346. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1341. Xyrus2000:


Come to the darker side. We have a sweeter aroma and a nutty aftertaste!


that sounds a little little scary
I like cookies and milk better C.C. is my fav

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Quoting 1337. moonlightcowboy:



...always pay attention to the high pressure (mostly north and east of a system). No storm, even a large one, can penetrate 1016mb of high pressure. Read the surface maps, watch the loops, espcially water vapor. You will find the track.
That is not what the pattern has been like this season the extension of the A-B High has been hugging the East Coast of FL. A persistent trough could be found in between the A-B High and the Central Plains High. The favored track is a Panhandle of FL. track. We had the same thing with Dorian, lots of people thought the storm would take a track towards Hispaniola, but they were following the low level steering the mid level steering and pressures are different. So 1016 mb. might be confined to surface pressure whereas mid-level and upper levels it's more weaker. I don't know man tell me if that makes sense to you about the differing pressures at the different levels of the atmosphere?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8186
1344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1336. Grothar:


It has to go north. The ECMWF will change. It has not taken the circulation in the Southeast into enough consideration. This system has the possibility of become a little stronger than the models have.


yes
models are for guidance only
and do not depict final outcome
to any single event
things can and will change
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1343. Levi32
Quoting 1338. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The ECMWF depicts a broad system that never consolidates much and takes the southern low as the main low and crashes it into Central America, whereas the GFS takes the northern low as the main low and links it up with the front. I would take the GFS in a situations like this because we may have on our hands another shallow system and tends to show it better on the higher resolution grid.


The ECMWF is T1279, vastly higher resolution than the GFS T574. Anyway, I think the resolution of either model will not be a predictive roadblock in this situation.
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1342. Drakoen
Quoting 1339. ncstorm:
a lot of people dont know but Drakeon and Levi are really good friends..they even visit each other from time to time..

Drakeon and Levi in Alaska doing some fishing..


Levi taking in the water with Drakeon in Miami


Even laughing at some of the comments on this blog..




Disclaimor: actors were paid to portray Levi and Drakeon to protect their identity :)


lol you are funny
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Quoting 1320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


come to the dark side we have cookies


Come to the darker side. We have a sweeter aroma and a nutty aftertaste!
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The 00z Surface Analysis has Low Pressure closer to the wave axis.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14241
1339. ncstorm
a lot of people dont know but Drakeon and Levi are really good friends..they even visit each other from time to time..

Drakeon and Levi in Alaska doing some fishing..


Levi taking in the water with Drakeon in Miami


Even laughing at some of the comments on this blog..




Disclaimor: actors were paid to portray Levi and Drakeon to protect their identity :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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