Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

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Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1625. TheTJE:
So I guess the most pressing nonweather question on this blog tonight for me is - will the poster above who ignored me take me off ignore if I'm right? Apparently newbies don't get to have an opinion or even defend themselves. I've been a member a while, but just started working nights and was looking to get more involved. As to the poster who replied about me "living on the edge" - I live in The Florida Keys and work at a resort backed up to The Florida Straights - I couldn't be anymore affected by the weather. I've just lived here for this season and one a few years back and while I don't wish for loss of life and land a morbid and curious part of me wants to see a Hurricane - a small one because anything about Cat 2 and I'm evacuating. I hope to start posting more, and should a storm come I'll be around to post before and after pictures. So Hi bloggers - maybe I got off on the wrong foot.


Hello, TJE. I'm relatively new myself, but I lurked a bit before I joined, usually when something was bearing down on us. I haven't read all the posts tonight, but I backtracked to see the one that seems to have annoyed some of the regulars. Couple of things. There are AGW believers here, as well as non-believers. Also, naming of storms follows specific criteria that is not manipulated for some 'GW agenda'. Lastly, lately there have been a slew of new guys that are saying 'bust', and some have blogged about it every day, all day. It's fine to have an opinion, but back it up as to why, and be polite about it. So, yeah, it looks like you did step out on the wrong foot. But lots of bloggers do take people off their ignore list periodically.
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Relating to Typhoon Utor:

B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS
IN THE STR INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH.
TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR ZHANJIANG, CHINA JUST PRIOR
TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING STR AND BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND.
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 IS EXPECTED AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
REMAINS FAVORABLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE CHANCE REMAINS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AID
IN INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
REMAINS HIGH.

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Next weeks cv "wave" forming over Sudan/Ethiopia.
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Issued: Aug 12, 2013 8:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. More than one vorticity center lies within this area of interest, hindering development around a single dominant center. If development occurs within this disturbed area, it will be slow as it moves westward at about 15 mph over the next couple of days. This area of interest has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.
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Quoting 1631. HurrMichaelOrl:


I would not at all be surprised if tracks like the one implied in this model projection (recurve in open Atlantic) sum up this Cape Verde season. The later it gets, the less likely these systems make it across, especially if intense, well developed cyclones.


That's one reason I try not to get all giddy about active Cape Verde seasons.

I got flamed for saying this once, so just to clarify; I'm not saying not to monitor them; many of the United States' most infamous hurricanes came from the Cape Verde Islands region (Andrew, Ivan, Ike, etc.), but I would imagine the total number of recurves to US landfalls is considerably larger.
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Hong Kong WX webcams:

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/index_webcam_e.ht m

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Labuyo damages P57M properties in Luzon
By Frances Mangosing
INQUIRER.net

MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon Labuyo (international codename: Utor) has, so far, caused P57 million worth in damages to properties of affected provinces in Luzon, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said.
In its 5 a.m. report on Tuesday, NDRRMC said P43 million of the P57,459,573.58 were in Aurora. Of the P43 million, P38 million were damages to infrastructure.
There were 1,577 houses destroyed in Cagayan, Central Luzon, Bicol and Cordillera Administrative Region, with 299 totally damaged, the NDRRMC report added.
As of early Tuesday, 23 roads and 13 bridges were affected while 13 power outages were reported in Ilocos, Cagayan, Central Luzon and Cordillera.
The Department of Social Welfare and Development and local government units have so far given about P1.3 million worth of assistance to the victims of the typhoon.
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Quoting 1612. stormchaser19:


I would not at all be surprised if tracks like the one implied in this model projection (recurve in open Atlantic) sum up this Cape Verde season. The later it gets, the less likely these systems make it across, especially if intense, well developed cyclones.
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If we go the remainder of August without at least 1 hurricane, then the season will definitely not be as intense as forecasted.
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Quoting 1625. TheTJE:
So I guess the most pressing nonweather question on this blog tonight for me is - will the poster above who ignored me take me off ignore if I'm right? Apparently newbies don't get to have an opinion or even defend themselves. I've been a member a while, but just started working nights and was looking to get more involved. As to the poster who replied about me "living on the edge" - I live in The Florida Keys and work at a resort backed up to The Florida Straights - I couldn't be anymore affected by the weather. I've just lived here for this season and one a few years back and while I don't wish for loss of life and land a morbid and curious part of me wants to see a Hurricane - a small one because anything about Cat 2 and I'm evacuating. I hope to start posting more, and should a storm come I'll be around to post before and after pictures. So Hi bloggers - maybe I got off on the wrong foot.


That's certainly not a very good way to introduce yourself.
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Quoting 1611. sar2401:

I guess you're up late tonight. Bye.


Exactly......LOL
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Quoting 1595. sar2401:

I'll respond once. There are 16 weeks left in hurricane season. We are in the middle of week 10 of hurricane season. It's not unusual to go the whole month of August with one or no storms. No one is hooting or hollering but you. Your ability to think logically is well shown by your idea the NHC will name non-existent storms to "get their numbers up". I see you joined three years ago and have two posts, which is typical for your type, with plenty of reserve memberships to use when you get banned. With that, you're on my ignore list now, so don't bother to respond. People like you are not worth the increase in my blood pressure.


Actually, it is pretty rare to go through all of August without a single named storm. Since records began in 1851, there have only been two years where that feat has been recognized: 1961 and 1997.

I know what you were saying, but I just wanted to point that part out.
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Utor heading towards southern China.

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1625. TheTJE
So I guess the most pressing nonweather question on this blog tonight for me is - will the poster above who ignored me take me off ignore if I'm right? Apparently newbies don't get to have an opinion or even defend themselves. I've been a member a while, but just started working nights and was looking to get more involved. As to the poster who replied about me "living on the edge" - I live in The Florida Keys and work at a resort backed up to The Florida Straights - I couldn't be anymore affected by the weather. I've just lived here for this season and one a few years back and while I don't wish for loss of life and land a morbid and curious part of me wants to see a Hurricane - a small one because anything about Cat 2 and I'm evacuating. I hope to start posting more, and should a storm come I'll be around to post before and after pictures. So Hi bloggers - maybe I got off on the wrong foot.
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Quoting 1595. sar2401:

I'll respond once. There are 16 weeks left in hurricane season. We are in the middle of week 10 of hurricane season. It's not unusual to go the whole month of August with one or no storms. No one is hooting or hollering but you. Your ability to think logically is well shown by your idea the NHC will name non-existent storms to "get their numbers up". I see you joined three years ago and have two posts, which is typical for your type, with plenty of reserve memberships to use when you get banned. With that, you're on my ignore list now, so don't bother to respond. People like you are not worth the increase in my blood pressure.



His one comment and poof he went
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1623. Siker
Quoting 1617. sar2401:

What exactly was the cyclogenesis for the 980 mb low? The CMC is becoming notorious lately for developing these bombs out of nowhere.

Blobzilla ( the wave coming off Africa in a few days).
EDIT: Miami might be correct, I haven't actually looked at the whole run.
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Quoting 1617. sar2401:

What exactly was the cyclogenesis for the 980 mb low? The CMC is becoming notorious lately for developing these bombs out of nowhere.
The GFS shows the same feature, just far less amplified. The genesis is pretty difficult to grasp, though; appears to develop from the broad area of showers and thunderstorms currently present off of the African coast. Looks to me as if a low pressure system is able to consolidate under some of the convective activity as it moves westward. Obviously the CMC is overdone, but hints towards possible Cape Verde development in the 72 hour time frame.
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Quoting 1620. LAbonbon:


You're right, I'm not sorry at all. If that thing goes either east or west of us, I'll be the one doing the Snoopy dance :)


I can outdance you any day. Watch me!

:P
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Quoting 1606. KoritheMan:


I don't want your apology, because I know you aren't sorry.

lol :P


You're right, I'm not sorry at all. If that thing goes either east or west of us, I'll be the one doing the Snoopy dance :)
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Quoting 1617. sar2401:

What exactly was the cyclogenesis for the 980 mb low? The CMC is becoming notorious lately for developing these bombs out of nowhere.
Quoting 1617. sar2401:



Yes, just for for be happy for one run lol, GFS is dissipating this system and CMC as usual is overdoing..
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1618. sar2401
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

200 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
......


Still 10 and 30

That's what I expected, and it will probably go up another 10% tomorrow unless something really amazing happens by DMax. It's got potential, but I don't think the NHC is going to pull the trigger too fast on this one unless it becomes an immediate threat to land.
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1617. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:

What exactly was the cyclogenesis for the 980 mb low? The CMC is becoming notorious lately for developing these bombs out of nowhere.
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Quoting 1603. matara28:



You are absolutely right. I believe this season will have a few storms and maybe 1 or 2 hurricanes. Maybe. The people are trying to get something from every cloud system that appears on satellite. Our climate is changing, but not how they predicted.
Meanwhile, look at typhoon Utor, is strengthening again.


double lol
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1615. sar2401
Quoting tropicfreak:


I may have jumped the gun on it developing a LLC... but whatever circulation is there has definitely become more rigorous throughout the day today. Shear surrounding the system has been on the decrease too.

Should be interesting to watch.

As it moves west in the Caribbean, the main problem will be higher pressures. If this turns out to be another 1012 low, it's going to be in trouble. That's why I want to wait to see what kind of LLC it can pull together.
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We could very well be dealing with Cape Verde development in about 3 days time.
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200 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
......


Still 10 and 30
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1611. sar2401
Quoting matara28:

I guess you're up late tonight. Bye.
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Quoting 1609. sar2401:

This really just a pretty messy tropical wave right now with no low level circulation. I can't imagine ti would become 92L by tomorrow. Better chance by 0200 Wednesday, but I'd guess the 0800 on Wednesday, assuming that the wave shows some organization and at least the beginnings of an LLC. It still has quite a job ahead of getting through the western Caribbean and into the Gulf without being torn up, so I'm not completely on board with this one yet.


I may have jumped the gun on it developing a LLC... but whatever circulation is there has definitely become more rigorous throughout the day today. Shear surrounding the system has been on the decrease too.

Should be interesting to watch.
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1609. sar2401
Quoting tropicfreak:
Pulling a very nice slug of moisture from South America. DMAX is going to be very interesting. It's in its early stages of developing a LLC.

Would not be shocked at all to see 92L at some point tomorrow.


This really just a pretty messy tropical wave right now with no low level circulation. I can't imagine it would become 92L by tomorrow. Better chance by 0200 Wednesday, but I'd guess the 0800 on Wednesday, assuming that the wave shows some organization and at least the beginnings of an LLC. It still has quite a job ahead of getting through the western Caribbean and into the Gulf without being torn up, so I'm not completely on board with this one yet.
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1608. 7544
Quoting 1568. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Did the NAVGEM become the GEM model overnight, lol?



now thats alot of lows or systems and thats what we can call a peak all by the 17th lol interesting tho wait watch and see !
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Quoting 1572. TheTJE:
It's almost funny to me how meteorologist and amatuers make excuses when they are wrong. Everyone was predicting this amazing above average season and it turns out to be a complete bust. It's mid August folks and you can go two weeks out and see NOTHING. It just isn't happening this year - hell it's even been a strange rainy season here in South Florida with very few epic thunderstorms but sometimes DAYS of rain. Yet now people are hooting and hollering that it's going to be a LATE season - this is only the middle they say. So when are people going to accept that the climate may be changing, but it isn't changing the way we thought it was and this isn't going to be a big season? It's going to be a season where storms are named that should only - maybe - be named in an effort to try to reach the number they put out to panic people about global warming.


lol
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Quoting 1515. LAbonbon:


Works for me. Sorry, Kori


I don't want your apology, because I know you aren't sorry.

lol :P
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Quoting 1583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Incoming!!



You know what is coming when the CMC starts to develop things in that region...
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Quoting 1583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Incoming!!

Develops the same feature that the GFS keeps relatively weak across the Atlantic.
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Quoting 1572. TheTJE:
It's almost funny to me how meteorologist and amatuers make excuses when they are wrong. Everyone was predicting this amazing above average season and it turns out to be a complete bust. It's mid August folks and you can go two weeks out and see NOTHING. It just isn't happening this year - hell it's even been a strange rainy season here in South Florida with very few epic thunderstorms but sometimes DAYS of rain. Yet now people are hooting and hollering that it's going to be a LATE season - this is only the middle they say. So when are people going to accept that the climate may be changing, but it isn't changing the way we thought it was and this isn't going to be a big season? It's going to be a season where storms are named that should only - maybe - be named in an effort to try to reach the number they put out to panic people about global warming.
Quoting 1572. TheTJE:
It's almost funny to me how meteorologist and amatuers make excuses when they are wrong. Everyone was predicting this amazing above average season and it turns out to be a complete bust. It's mid August folks and you can go two weeks out and see NOTHING. It just isn't happening this year - hell it's even been a strange rainy season here in South Florida with very few epic thunderstorms but sometimes DAYS of rain. Yet now people are hooting and hollering that it's going to be a LATE season - this is only the middle they say. So when are people going to accept that the climate may be changing, but it isn't changing the way we thought it was and this isn't going to be a big season? It's going to be a season where storms are named that should only - maybe - be named in an effort to try to reach the number they put out to panic people about global warming.



You are absolutely right. I believe this season will have a few storms and maybe 1 or 2 hurricanes. Maybe. The people are trying to get something from every cloud system that appears on satellite. Our climate is changing, but not how they predicted.
Meanwhile, look at typhoon Utor, is strengthening again.
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Seeing a little of the side of a circulation.
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1601. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


5.53 inches here Sar since Aug. 1st. Shall add at least another inch when I check my gauge tomorrow morning.

Yeah, some parts of Tennessee and north Georgia have gotten more rain than the Panhandle or central Florida. The front pushing through Thursday should be a good rainmaker again for you. For me, it will just be hot and sunny again. My high was 103 today.
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I'm not usually on this late but if I am I'll look for you. I'm in Tacoma, Wa now. BYE
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Quoting 1572. TheTJE:
It's almost funny to me how meteorologist and amatuers make excuses when they are wrong. Everyone was predicting this amazing above average season and it turns out to be a complete bust. It's mid August folks and you can go two weeks out and see NOTHING. It just isn't happening this year - hell it's even been a strange rainy season here in South Florida with very few epic thunderstorms but sometimes DAYS of rain. Yet now people are hooting and hollering that it's going to be a LATE season - this is only the middle they say. So when are people going to accept that the climate may be changing, but it isn't changing the way we thought it was and this isn't going to be a big season? It's going to be a season where NWS names storms that should only - maybe - be named in an effort to try to reach the number they put out to panic people about global warming.
The "panic" isn't justified by a hurricane season. I don't think anyone here is arguing that.

You may not be living on the edge, but those who are will die by the hundreds of millions if you're wrong.

The big problem arises from the rate of change, which can be catastrophic with seven billion souls on board. That's a lot of flesh on the bone.

Before you decide the risk is worth it, tell me what we would do with the bodies? After you answer that, then we can discuss your moral argument.

Our density across such a wide range of the planet's surface, makes us more fragile than what happened to these.





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1598. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Good night blog and bloggers:


GN, Astro. Sure like to know where those two damage reports in SE Alabama came from, since nothing happened anywhere near me.
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Thanks for adding another to by I list. May already be on it!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
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1595. sar2401
Quoting TheTJE:
It's almost funny to me how meteorologist and amatuers make excuses when they are wrong. Everyone was predicting this amazing above average season and it turns out to be a complete bust. It's mid August folks and you can go two weeks out and see NOTHING. It just isn't happening this year - hell it's even been a strange rainy season here in South Florida with very few epic thunderstorms but sometimes DAYS of rain. Yet now people are hooting and hollering that it's going to be a LATE season - this is only the middle they say. So when are people going to accept that the climate may be changing, but it isn't changing the way we thought it was and this isn't going to be a big season? It's going to be a season where storms are named that should only - maybe - be named in an effort to try to reach the number they put out to panic people about global warming.

I'll respond once. There are 16 weeks left in hurricane season. We are in the middle of week 10 of hurricane season. It's not unusual to go the whole month of August with one or no storms. No one is hooting or hollering but you. Your ability to think logically is well shown by your idea the NHC will name non-existent storms to "get their numbers up". I see you joined three years ago and have two posts, which is typical for your type, with plenty of reserve memberships to use when you get banned. With that, you're on my ignore list now, so don't bother to respond. People like you are not worth the increase in my blood pressure.
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Quoting 1583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Incoming!!



Is it having to run under the 588 line we delved into last night?
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Quoting 1570. tropicfreak:
Pulling a very nice slug of moisture from South America. DMAX is going to be very interesting. It's in its early stages of developing a LLC.

Would not be shocked at all to see 92L at some point tomorrow.


Also look at the upper vortex (with attendant surface trough) SE of Bermuda. I detail both the upper vortex and the disturbed weather in the Caribbean in my latest Atlantic tropical discussion....

If you have interests in the western Caribbean...western Cuba...Yucatan peninsula...or along the US Gulf coast...I'd be keeping close tabs on the Caribbean system....this has quiet a bit of model support....
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1592. Skyepony (Mod)
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I just LOVE the night crew!
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 130501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1588. Astrometeor:


One was out indefinitely, the other just went out today, no idea why. I don't think they know, either.


Thanks. Night, Astro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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