Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

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Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1432. Tribucanes:
Camille33, your use of exclamation marks is just hilarious. You certainly have a passion. Blog is ready for some action, any action.

No more storm in gulf coast!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am happy about that!
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1435. sar2401
Quoting llpj04:



Well our Electricity co has the answer. Charge an extra fee on the bill every month for ...........forever! We still are paying extra from 15 to 30 $ a month (depending on your usage) for Katrina & Gustav. So even 15$ mo x 8 years=1440.00

That is unfortunately always going to be the case. No utility has the money to fix their generation and distribution systems after major hurricanes, and the cost to each ratepayer would have been astronomical, probably on the order of $5,000-$10,000 per ratepayer. The utilities got long term loans, mostly from the government, and ratepayers are paying them back, with interest, over the next 20 years or so. It's kind of like a mortgage. It allowed you to get your power back, but there are those monthly payments that go on for decades to fix it all.
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1434. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Frankly Sandy is the best thing to happen to downstate NY and New Jersey? Come on Sar, that just sounds horrible. Where's the sensitivity? You know I had to go there. Just giving you a hard time. Power grid, bridges, roads, national parks, ageing piping in major cities, the list goes on and on when it comes to what needs fixing. Our infrastructure is crumbling and states are flat broke and the government is in no shape to step in. It is what it is, we wait till they fail and then fix it. Luckily still the best country in the world to live in, just gotta roll with the punches.

True...let me reword that..."Sandy is the best thing to ever happen to the power grid in downstate New York and New Jersey". :-) But really, folks affected by Sandy now have some of the most modern and efficient power distribution systems in the US, thanks, in part, to my Federal tax money. I don't much like the idea of my money being involuntarily extracted from me to pay for another area's power system, but that's really what it will take if we are ever to have a more reliable grid. We really found out that, between flooding n the basements and no power on trading floors, it doesn't take long before the whole world's economy to take a hit. However we end up paying for all these things when they break, it's going to be expensive. It would be nice if we had a plan for all this, but I suspect the plan is to wait for the next major storm, earthquake, terrorist attack, or some other major disaster and fix things then. It's the only way things get done without a constant argument about tax money nowadays.
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1433. llpj04

Quoting 1422. sar2401:



This is an incredibly complex, costly issue and, short of a government takeover of electrical power generation and distribution and the spending of taxpayer dollars to upgrade the system, there really isn't an answer. 
Well our Electricity co has the answer. Charge an extra fee on the bill every month for ...........forever!    We still are paying extra from 15 to 30 $ a month (depending on your usage) for Katrina & Gustav.  So even 15$ mo x 8 years=1440.00

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Camille33, your use of exclamation marks is just hilarious. You certainly have a passion. Blog is ready for some action, any action.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
When you insert the correct variable into the ecmwf model the track is above the norm now we got the variable!! Gulf coast is safe from any system but east coast mexico watch out!!
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New track for the system is into boc and mexico!! Ecmwf has picked up on the wave now and sends it on a navgem path!! Big change coming now!
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Well it's something wunderkidcayman, is that wave what the models develop in the Gulf? I'm assuming it is.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
000
ABNT20 KNHC 120503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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1427. sar2401
Quoting llpj04:

Unfortunately, the ammo issue is only too real. You either can't get it all for many common calibers or it costs and arm and leg. I never thought I'd see the day where they'd want almost a dollar a round for nasty Russian 7.62x39 rounds. The heck with the stock market - I should have put every dime I had into .38, .357, 9mm and 40 caliber rounds starting about three years ago. I'd be rich by now. :-)
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Frankly Sandy is the best thing to happen to downstate NY and New Jersey? Come on Sar, that just sounds horrible. Where's the sensitivity? You know I had to go there. Just giving you a hard time. Power grid, bridges, roads, national parks, ageing piping in major cities, the list goes on and on when it comes to what needs fixing. Our infrastructure is crumbling and states are flat broke and the government is in no shape to step in. It is what it is, we wait till they fail and then fix it. Luckily still the best country in the world to live in, just gotta roll with the punches.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Happy Birthday Isaac :) Good luck on your driver's test too!
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Quoting 1423. wxchaser97:
Small chance of severe thunderstorms on my birthday, I'll take it.


Happy Birthday! :)
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Small chance of severe thunderstorms on my birthday, I'll take it.
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1422. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Proposal being raised to strengthen the United states grid since power failures from weather events are so costly..

This comes up after every major storm anywhere in the country. This article makes it sound like "they", which I'm assuming to be the Federal government, are proposing to spend money to strengthen the grid. With the exception of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) the Federal government doesn't spend dime one on the grid. Any and all upgrades come out of the ratepayer's pockets. I don't think there's any doubt that everyone would like to see a more reliable grid. The question is how do we, the ratepayers, afford it? The absolute minimum figure I've seen to increase grid reliability from 98.2% up time to 99% up time is about $50 billion. Just for the sake of round numbers, there are about 100 million ratepayers in this country. That's about $500 per ratepayer, but that's just an average, and the grid isn't "average".

We don't really have a grid as most people think of it. We have hundreds or power generation companies tied together through a loose and mostly voluntary intertie arrangement. Some places, like southern California and Arizona have fairly modern distribution systems and don't need a lot of work. Other areas, like most of the Northeast and parts of the Southeast, have power distribution systems that are held together with string and bubblegum. $500 per ratepayer would be a drop in the bucket to those places. Frankly, Sandy is the best thing to ever happen to downstate New York and New Jersey, since FEMA money did help pay for power restoration, and a lot of upgrades were made at the same time.

Most power systems were constructed, or built-out, from about 1935 to 1965. If your power went out in, say, 1955, you got out granny's kerosene lamps, turned on the battery powered radio, and made popcorn over the fire in the fireplace or gas stove. As long as it didn't take more than about 24 hours, nothing really bad happened. It's a whole different world today. Even if a store was willing to open during a power failure, you'd better have cash, since the credit card machines and ATM machines won't work. You can't get gas for your car, cell phones, even if the system is still working, run down the battery, the laptop is only good for a few hours...you name it, we can't do it without electricity. This is an incredibly complex, costly issue and, short of a government takeover of electrical power generation and distribution and the spending of taxpayer dollars to upgrade the system, there really isn't an answer. The best thing each of us can do is have a Plan B for what happens if you don't have power for something like a week. You can survive quite comfortably if you plan ahead, but waiting for the Big One to hit and expecting any help won't end well.
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Quoting 1400. Walshy:
A tropical system plowing into 20-30 degree below normal temps. Interesting. GFS may be overdone somewhat I would hope.



Seriously? I'm willing to bet the trough isn't going to be nearly that deep, and I have climatology on my side to support that. :P

Cool, dry air? Sure, I can buy that. But I don't see anything in the model fields to indicate an abnormally deep trough having adequate upper forcing to generate air temperatures that cold. Trough seems a little amplified, but it looks more shortwave in nature than longwave.

I'd say that's overdone.
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There doesn't seem to be any real consistency in terms of how favorable the upper-level wind pattern will be over the Gulf.

Some runs of the GFS have been more diffluent and of lighter shear, while others have allowed southwesterly shear associated with the modeled trough to penetrate as far south as 25N.

Certainly not helping pinpoint any development/intensification potential with this possible system.

One thing that has been fairly consistent though, is that whatever does develop will have to contend with increasing westerly to southwesterly shear near the northern Gulf Coast. Unless the upper air pattern changes drastically, I don't see this system becoming a hurricane, but one must also remember that shear forecasts are subject to change that far out and do not always reflect reality, as we saw with Dorian.
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WPC not giving much GFS love.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

VALID 12Z THU AUG 15 2013 - 12Z MON AUG 19 2013

THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PERSISTENT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERN US RIDGE...AND
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH THROUGH SAT 17 AUG.
THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND THEN FL NEXT WEEKEND
INTO MON 19 AUG.
ON SUN-MON 18 AUG-19 AUG THE DISSIPATION AND
EJECTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHWEST US.

ACCORDINGLY...PERSISTENT AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST TO CENTRAL US
DAYS 3-5...WITH WARMING IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY DAYS 6-7. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST A
SHOWERY PERIOD OVER MULTIPLE DAYS IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL LIFT
OCCURS WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS AND MOISTURE FLUXES 850-700 MB
REPLENISH SUPPLIES.


THE 18Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN INDUCING A CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 12Z SAT 17 AUG AND MOVING THAT LOW
ONSHORE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z SUN AND NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS THE REST OF SUN TO MON MORNING 19 AUG.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE 18Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY
SCENARIO AND NOT USED IN THE FORECASTS.
A BLEND OF THE RESPECTIVE
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z NAEFS BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
18Z GEFS MEAN WAS USED WITH A TOKEN 10 PERCENT GIVEN TO THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF.
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Quoting 1408. lurkersince2008:
So is coastal al/ms in the clear if something developes?

At this point, anywhere from the Florida panhandle to Mexico could be hit. It is still too far out, with a system that hasn't formed yet, to speculate where a storm will exactly make landfall. It is best to monitor the situation and make sure you know your hurricane plans in case something does come up your way.
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1416. llpj04
Quoting 1409. sar2401:

The nice thing is that, if you never need one, you haven't lost anything but the money you spent to buy them. If you do need one, you really need one.
If you can find bullets   ; )
 If this storm develops, the milk, bread, an gas panic will be out in full force by Thursday.
*Shudder*
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1415. sar2401
Quoting Walshy:
A tropical system plowing into 20-30 degree below normal temps. Interesting. GFS may be overdone somewhat I would hope.


I agree in terms of this doing much if it develops and makes landfall. Unless this turns into some kind of RI monster, which I'm sure will come up as a realistic possibility to some this week, the cool and dry air should not make this into an big inland rainmaker.
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1414. Gearsts
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Quoting 1411. TexasHurricane05:


Yeah, I guess we will see.


Yeah, as civic just showed there may be development in the gulf this coming up week. Not supposed to come this way but you never really know til they are formed, like Stormchaser just said. Yep basically watch and wait season. Again. :)
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1412. sar2401
Quoting lurkersince2008:
So is coastal al/ms in the clear if something developes?

No, we are actually right in the center of the cone. Anywhere between Mobile AL and Houma LA are at risk. If you haven't stocked up on your hurricane needs yet, early this week would be a good time to do so. If this storm develops, the milk, bread, an gas panic will be out in full force by Thursday.
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Quoting 1403. AtHomeInTX:


Oh that was the CMC aka GEM. It's ok sometimes but it has wild runs sometimes too. Texas may get a storm this year. Never can tell. But the ridge is at least backing off of us at times. So it's a possibility.


Yeah, I guess we will see.
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Quoting 1402. Stormchaser121:

Yeah TX what do you think?


Have no idea... TX could use the rain, so hoping in the area. Not wishing for a major by any means.
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1409. sar2401
Quoting GBguy88:
It takes one Hell of a hurricane to create enough chaos that you should feel the need to have mace and guns, such as there was with storms like Andrew and Katrina. I remember Opal, Ivan, and Dennis (also Erin, same year as Opal, but only a weak Cat-2), and we didn't personally experience any looting or criminal activity in our neighborhood, nor the rest of town to my knowledge, despite peak effects from each of those storms. After Ivan and Dennis, you could barely move 10 feet without running into police or National Guard troops, and they were dead serious about the curfews. Given you're not in a major metro area for a major storm (like Katrina/New Orleans, or even Sandy/NYC), it's surprising how quickly the authorities are able to restore order under normal post-storm circumstances.

There are certainly different parts of the country where risks are much higher than others. OTOH, relying on the idea that civil authorities and the military will be there as soon as the wind stops blowing is naive at best. Maybe it's just been a while since we've had a really big hurricane that overwhelmed local resources, and we've forgotten, or you may be too young, to remember how long it took to reestablish order after Andrew in 1992, as one example. Certainly New Orleans after Katrina wasn't a safe place to be storm chasing. However, just go to Google images and enter "Looting and whatever hurricane you were in". You will find that there was a lot more going on than you probably knew about, because it apparently didn't affect you directly, which is not a very good criteria for a blanket statement that nothing happened and there were cops and soldiers everywhere, because they weren't everywhere.

I think having pepper spray is a good idea for any law-abiding citizen. It's non-lethal and can save you from serious injury or death. A gun is meant to kill, and, if you need one, there is no substitute. The nice thing is that, if you never need one, you haven't lost anything but the money you spent to buy them. If you do need one, you really need one.
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So is coastal al/ms in the clear if something developes?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS WELL AS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Quoting 1391. Skyepony:
Proposal being raised to strengthen the United states grid since power failures from weather events are so costly..

The last time I lost power due to a weather event was Ike, I think. It has been a long while since the power has gone out. *Knocks on wood* I've been lucky though, probably too lucky sometimes with how power lines have fallen or the strongest winds have hit. I think the power grids definitely need to be strengthened.
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1404. llpj04

Quoting 1380. GBguy88:
It takes one Hell of a hurricane to create enough chaos that you should feel the need to have mace and guns, such as there was with storms like Andrew and Katrina. I remember Opal, Ivan, and Dennis (also Erin, same year as Opal, but only a weak Cat-2), and we didn't personally experience any looting or criminal activity in our neighborhood, nor the rest of town to my knowledge, despite peak effects from each of those storms. After Ivan and Dennis, you could barely move 10 feet without running into police or National Guard troops, and they were dead serious about the curfews. Given you're not in a major metro area for a major storm (like Katrina/New Orleans, or even Sandy/NYC), it's surprising how quickly the authorities are able to restore order under normal post-storm circumstances.
Well they learned a lot from Katrina so I'm sure things will never be as bad there or in our area 45 miles away .  Things like: 1. You have to close off the big canals. 2. Never use the dome for a place of refuge. 3. How to get the disabled people out quicker. 4. How to keep your police from leaving the city. 5. Bringing in the National Guard sooner & keeping curfews.Oh by the way it doesn't take a hurricane at all to feel you need  mace & guns   :)  break ins are on the rise in any kind of weather!  jmho 
 
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Quoting 1398. TexasHurricane05:


I wasn't sure which one it was... Think TX may be in the run this year?


Oh that was the CMC aka GEM. It's ok sometimes but it has wild runs sometimes too. Texas may get a storm this year. Never can tell. But the ridge is at least backing off of us at times. So it's a possibility.
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Quoting 1398. TexasHurricane05:


I wasn't sure which one it was... Think TX may be in the run this year?

Yeah TX what do you think?
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
1401. Gearsts
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1400. Walshy
A tropical system plowing into 20-30 degree below normal temps. Interesting. GFS may be overdone somewhat I would hope.

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Better check out all the models and post the interesting frames before I'm banned tomorrow.
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Quoting 1396. AtHomeInTX:


They may get interesting real soon. That's not the most reliable model to watch.


I wasn't sure which one it was... Think TX may be in the run this year?
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Quoting 1396. AtHomeInTX:


They may get interesting real soon. That's not the most reliable model to watch.

I think its interesting that the CMC is moving further west. The GFS has it in FL...the FIM have it over us in TX.
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Quoting 1393. TexasHurricane05:


ok, will get interesting soon I'm sure...


They may get interesting real soon. That's not the most reliable model to watch.
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Hmmmmmmmm

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Quoting 1393. TexasHurricane05:


ok, will get interesting soon I'm sure...

Its best to wait until its an invest.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
Quoting 1388. AtHomeInTX:


Hey Tex. Not sure what that's showing. Why it's split like that? But yeah it shows it going to Louisiana.


ok, will get interesting soon I'm sure...
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1392. ncstorm
Good night yall..
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1391. Skyepony (Mod)
Proposal being raised to strengthen the United states grid since power failures from weather events are so costly..
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1390. centex
Do you think the programmers factored in 8/7 versus 8/21 when forecasting development? They can't because they only rely on current data. Poor management.
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Quoting 1387. BaltimoreBrian:
NAM pressure and PWAT loop.

You nneed to post watlantic what you doing !!
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Quoting 1383. TexasHurricane05:


Hi AtHome..... What is that showing exactly? That suppose to go to LA if anything develops?


Hey Tex. Not sure what that's showing. Why it's split like that? But yeah it shows it going to Louisiana.
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NAM pressure and PWAT loop.
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1386. ncstorm
Quoting 1378. AtHomeInTX:
hmmmm...



the CMC never fails to disappoint us weather folks..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron