Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

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Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1459. SunriseSteeda:


What about the front that Wilma rode up the coast?

I remember sitting in shorts and tshirt on my back porch when the power went out around dawn. It was about 80 degrees and humid. 24 hours later the wind chill was about 45.



Highly amplified cold fronts like that one, although rare, would be expected to occur in late October at a return rate that is much more frequent than one in mid August.
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Quoting 1484. VR46L:



It might have been a weather troll lol! or another amateur,who doesn't have all the facts .

Idk? But that is one of the more ridiculous statements I have heard in awhile. Definitely think that one was just added in there with no basis of research whatsoever. Anyways I'm going to bed, have a good night. :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1484. VR46L
Quoting 1482. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah it is still in the Experimental phase and I don't know why this person that did this entry would say that the GFS performed poorly over the GEM and IFS.



It might have been a weather troll lol! or another amateur,who doesn't have all the facts .

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Utor is underdoing rapid intensifcation again look out
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Quoting 1478. VR46L:


There is no doubt that they are working on it . but I just think there is a reason why its not carried by anyone that I know of.

But I am cynical about Wiki .. I could write an article in wiki about rocket science and I know nothing about Rocket science ...
Yeah it is still in the Experimental phase and I don't know why this person that did this entry would say that the GFS performed poorly over the GEM and IFS.
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Quoting 1479. Camille33:

I am watch this area I am seeing maybe something going on here!

Maybe 20% in 48 hr coming
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Quoting 1476. VR46L:


I think the monsoonal trough is the key .. and will hinder development . and the front if it makes it into the gulf would work against development too ... but I am an amateur
Me too, that's why I come here to learn more about the weather not just tropical, but in general, and love to see the differing opinions as it provides for great discussions. :D
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I am watch this area I am seeing maybe something going on here!
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1478. VR46L
Quoting 1475. GTstormChaserCaleb:
From Wiki...

The Flow-following, finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM) is a numerical weather prediction model currently under development at the Earth System Research Laboratory.
The FIM is intended to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System, the United States's current medium-range forecast model, when operational (this was originally estimated to be some time around 2014). The model is expected to greatly improve on the GFS, which has historically performed more poorly than its rival models from other countries (particularly the GEM and IFS). Its three-part name derives from its key features: "flow-following" indicates that its vertical coordinates are based on both terrain and potential temperature (isentropic sigma coordinates, previously used in the now-discontinued rapid update cycle model), and "finite-volume" describes the method used for calculating horizontal transport. The "icosahedral" portion describes the model's most uncommon feature: whereas most grid-based forecast models have historically used rectangular grid points (a less than ideal arrangement for a planet that is a slightly oblate spheroid), the FIM instead fits Earth to a truncated icosahedron, with twelve evenly spaced pentagons (including two at the poles) anchoring a grid of hexagons.
The FIM runs as a multiscale model, with a suffix number indicating the model's horizontal resolution. FIM7 operates at a spatial resolution of 60 km, FIM8 at 30 km, FIM9 at 15km and FIM9.5 at 10km. The FIM7 and FIM8 both run twice daily (0z and 12z) with 6-hour temporal resolution out to 14 days. The FIM9 runs four times daily, also with 6-hour steps, out to 7 days. (FIM9.5 is not currently in operation.)


There is no doubt that they are working on it . but I just think there is a reason why its not carried by anyone that I know of.

But I am cynical about Wiki .. I could write an article in wiki about rocket science and I know nothing about Rocket science ...
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Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1476. VR46L
Quoting 1472. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I would think there is a wave axis south of Puerto Rico looking at the Funktop Loop. Interaction with this, the Columbian Heat Low, and the active monsoon trough will be interesting in a couple of days.



I think the monsoonal trough is the key .. and will hinder development . and the front if it makes it into the gulf would work against development too ... but I am an amateur
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From Wiki...

The Flow-following, finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM) is a numerical weather prediction model currently under development at the Earth System Research Laboratory.
The FIM is intended to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System, the United States's current medium-range forecast model, when operational (this was originally estimated to be some time around 2014). The model is expected to greatly improve on the GFS, which has historically performed more poorly than its rival models from other countries (particularly the GEM and IFS). Its three-part name derives from its key features: "flow-following" indicates that its vertical coordinates are based on both terrain and potential temperature (isentropic sigma coordinates, previously used in the now-discontinued rapid update cycle model), and "finite-volume" describes the method used for calculating horizontal transport. The "icosahedral" portion describes the model's most uncommon feature: whereas most grid-based forecast models have historically used rectangular grid points (a less than ideal arrangement for a planet that is a slightly oblate spheroid), the FIM instead fits Earth to a truncated icosahedron, with twelve evenly spaced pentagons (including two at the poles) anchoring a grid of hexagons.
The FIM runs as a multiscale model, with a suffix number indicating the model's horizontal resolution. FIM7 operates at a spatial resolution of 60 km, FIM8 at 30 km, FIM9 at 15km and FIM9.5 at 10km. The FIM7 and FIM8 both run twice daily (0z and 12z) with 6-hour temporal resolution out to 14 days. The FIM9 runs four times daily, also with 6-hour steps, out to 7 days. (FIM9.5 is not currently in operation.)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
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Quoting 1458. moonlightcowboy:
We haven't had anything to track, and sure enough, I let the models and the model followers suck me right into thinking that development would likely be imminent. And then I thought, wait, you dummy (to myself of course), look at what you see, discern what you know. And, plain as day, conditions are simply not right, and don't appear to be right anytime soon.



Brother...I am a model follower.....LOL...but, I have my doubts on this one as i just don't see the shear decreasing to the point of allowing a system to rev up very strong....we shall see tho.
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I would think there is a wave axis south of Puerto Rico looking at the Funktop Loop. Interaction with this, the Columbian Heat Low, and the active monsoon trough will be interesting in a couple of days.

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1471. VR46L
Quoting 1468. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well remember the GFS was also moved to a new supercomputer. One of these days these models will prove themselves and outperform the GFS model. Maybe with this storm, maybe the next storm, but it will happen. The GFS can't sniff out everything and there is no such thing as a "perfect" model, each have their drawbacks.
Quoting 1468. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well remember the GFS was also moved to a new supercomputer. One of these days these models will prove themselves and outperform the GFS model. Maybe with this storm, maybe the next storm, but it will happen. The GFS can't sniff out everything and there is no such thing as a "perfect" model, each have their drawbacks.


I agree with you on most of it ; but when the two most reliable models are showing little , you have to take that into consideration ..Lets face it, yes there were 4 TS this year but none were more than minor storms and both models shows at best a minor storm ..So I am not discounting either of them . The Euro last year helped alert many to where Sandy was gonna go and that should be remembered and the GFS preformed well with Debby . and they all got Isaac
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One last thought. :) Unlike tornadoes, nearly 100 percent of the time, we have ample time to discern track of a developing tropical system. An exception would be Humberto which none of the models picked up, but several bloggers indeed did.

The point I'm making is relying on the models for initial cyclogenesis is really a moot thing. But, where they could be very helpful is, of course, with track and intensity. If your model is not good with track, not sure I'd be following it too much. It may sniff out a birthing system, fine, but you can do that yourself watching loops and maps. ;)
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Quoting 1467. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That looks like TS Andrea and Debby all over again. I'm not too fond of the GFS and its inconsistencies and am really leaning on the FIM and its consistency. NAVGEM has also been fairly consistent in development, but has been all over the place in terms of track.



And, that is precisely why you should rely on your own observations and discernment skills. You have that skill set, lean on that, hone those skills, and you will reap rewards from it! :)

Ok, now, most definitely must go. Nite, all! :)
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Quoting 1466. VR46L:
GT I dont get the FIM model thing to be used as an example ... It says its an experimental model ... it is not carried by any model sites

As regards to the CMC showing a storm they always show something and the Navgem is still yet to prove itself .
Well remember the GFS was also moved to a new supercomputer. One of these days these models will prove themselves and outperform the GFS model. Maybe with this storm, maybe the next storm, but it will happen. The GFS can't sniff out everything and there is no such thing as a "perfect" model, each have their drawbacks.
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Quoting 1464. VR46L:


The GFS is not showing much



That looks like TS Andrea and Debby all over again. I'm not too fond of the GFS and its inconsistencies and am really leaning on the FIM and its consistency. NAVGEM has also been fairly consistent in development, but has been all over the place in terms of track.
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1466. VR46L
GT I dont get the FIM model thing to be used as an example ... It says its an experimental model ... it is not carried by any model sites

As regards to the CMC showing a storm they always show something and the Navgem is still yet to prove itself .
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Quoting 1461. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Weak MJO pulse lifts northwards causing upward motion in the Western Caribbean. The approaching trough weakens the western flank of the A-B Ridge allowing a more southeast to northwest flow to establish In addition, watch to see if an ULL is situated to the southwest and northeast of the system to provide nice ventilation in the coming days. Still thinking it would undergo some type of baroclinic transition as it neared the Gulf Coast with this deep of a trough


Thanks, GT. That is a cognizant, well thought out response based on observations and discernment, and with merit I might add, that is, if we see the upward pulse. Good answers! I still think it's a stretch though right now. ;)

I'm out, really must get some hoodwinks before the alarm clock goes off in three hours. Y'all get this thing nailed down, would ya? ;P
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1464. VR46L
Quoting 1463. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sorry just hard to go against the models in which all except the Euro show development. It may be a lopsided system as was the case with Andrea. Still too soon to tell what the conditions will be like in the GOM since we are still talking about landfall more than 5 days.


The GFS is not showing much



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Sorry just hard to go against the models right now in which all except the Euro show development. It may be a lopsided system as was the case with Andrea. Still too soon to tell what the conditions will be like in the GOM since we are still talking about landfall more than 5 days.

Maybe I'm just a new school blogger relying on technology these days. :P.

But in the event we get nothing out of this it would be a big letdown by the models.
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1462. VR46L
Quoting 1458. moonlightcowboy:
We haven't had anything to track, and sure enough, I let the models and the model followers suck me right into thinking that development would likely be imminent. And then I thought, wait, you dummy (to myself of course), look at what you see, discern what you know. And, plain as day, conditions are simply not right, and don't appear to be right anytime soon.


I agree with ya ... Yes I think there will be a significant rain event with the trough that is setting up and an apparently strong front en route but noone can ID the troublemaker yet .. I think there is too many things going on for something to really show ..

I know I won't win popularity points for saying it but I think the Euro and actually the GFS for most of the runs might be right ..little going to happen .
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Quoting 1456. moonlightcowboy:


GT, all that is, is a picture of a guessed change. You say it changes, then please share with us what brings about the change that would allow development? Are you expecting the shear associated with the monsoonal diffluence to regress southwards away from land interaction? What? Are you expecting the CONUS trough to be deeper? Current loops and surface maps are sure not indicating such. What brings about the change? :) I'm all ears. ;)
Weak MJO pulse lifts northwards causing upward motion in the Western Caribbean. The approaching trough weakens the western flank of the A-B Ridge allowing a more southeast to northwest flow to establish In addition, watch to see if an ULL is situated to the southwest and northeast of the system to provide nice ventilation in the coming days. Still thinking it would undergo some type of baroclinic transition as it neared the Gulf Coast with this deep of a trough
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TAFB is not even showing a surface low in three days yet, despite the twave being near the channel.

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Quoting 1446. KoritheMan:


20F below normal, as per that graph Walshy posted, is ridiculous for the middle of August; that's colder than it got here after Lee moved through in 2011 and the strong cold front that caused it to become extratropical over Alabama moved in. And that was in September, where the fronts are expected to be stronger.

The only time I can remember a front comparably vigorous this time of year was during 2004, when the trough that curved Charley into Florida brought record cold air to the Gulf Coast states for a week.


What about the front that Wilma rode up the coast?

I remember sitting in shorts and tshirt on my back porch when the power went out around dawn. It was about 80 degrees and humid. 24 hours later the wind chill was about 45.

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We haven't had anything to track, and sure enough, I let the models and the model followers suck me right into thinking that development would likely be imminent. And then I thought, wait, you dummy (to myself of course), look at what you see, discern what you know. And, plain as day, conditions are simply not right, and don't appear to be right anytime soon.
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Quoting 1452. moonlightcowboy:
Nothing develops in this even if it's zonal.


Did you bother to simulate the shear ?
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Quoting 1455. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That will change in 3 days.

FIM-9



GT, all that is, is a picture of a guessed change. You say it changes, then please share with us what brings about the change that would allow development? Are you expecting the shear associated with the monsoonal diffluence to regress southwards away from land interaction? What? Are you expecting the CONUS trough to be deeper? Current loops and surface maps are sure not indicating such. What brings about the change? :) I'm all ears. ;)
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Quoting 1452. moonlightcowboy:
Nothing develops in this even if it's zonal.

That will change in 3 days.

FIM-9

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Quoting 1451. KoritheMan:


The actual tropical wave that's supposed to trigger this hypothetical low pressure area is still moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea, or at least that's where I would place it via simple extrapolation from where it was a few days ago. Still plenty of time for a moisture increase in the western Caribbean region.

Also, the forecast for lower shear isn't supposed to happen until the next 4 or 5 days, coincidentally right as the tropical wave nears the western Caribbean region.

I don't think anything that develops (if at all) in this region gets too strong, but I think there's a better chance than you're giving it credit for. IMO



Kori, I realize the development expected is to come from the twave in the east Caribbean. It may develop, but I can only go by what I see, not data in some computer model somewhere. And, right now, I'm telling you, unless things change "considerably" nothing will develop in that mess.
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Quoting 1449. BaltimoreBrian:



Well.....in July 1967 a cold front brought temps as low as 49 in Florida. So you never know!


True. :P
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Nothing develops in this even if it's zonal.

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Quoting 1447. moonlightcowboy:



Honestly, atmospheric conditions are going to have to change considerably for anything at all to develop in the Caribbean and GoM. The Caribbean has 40-50 kts shear. Nothing will develop in that regardless of how much moisture piles up. The moisture and shear that is there now is mostly the result of diffluent air from overland interaction with an higher latitude amplified monsoonal trough from the perennial Columbian Low up through Panama and Costa Rico to about 10n, and not the result of TPW piling up from the moisture gyre of a westwardly moving twave.



The models may be seeing some slight development, but again, things will have to change considerably. In addition, the Bermuda High is nosing hard westwards as well. And, I think it was Kori earlier that said he believed the CONUS trough was going to be more of a shortwave trough than a deep, amplified longwave trough. I think he's right.

I think we have better chances of seeing the surface low out in the Atlantic developing amidst the considerable dry air quicker than we will see anything develop over the next several days in the Caribbean.


The actual tropical wave that's supposed to trigger this hypothetical low pressure area is still moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea, or at least that's where I would place it via simple extrapolation from where it was a few days ago. Still plenty of time for a moisture increase in the western Caribbean region.

Also, the forecast for lower shear isn't supposed to happen until the next 4 or 5 days, coincidentally right as the tropical wave nears the western Caribbean region.

I don't think anything that develops (if at all) in this region gets too strong, but I think there's a better chance than you're giving it credit for. IMO
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Also if it shoots the gap as opposed to going over the Yucatan which has been known to do some funky things with storms i.e. 2002 Isidore then we might be taking about a whole another ballgame.

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Quoting 1446. KoritheMan:


20F below normal, as per that graph Walshy posted, is ridiculous for the middle of August; that's colder than it got here after Lee moved through in 2011 and the strong cold front that caused it to become extratropical over Alabama moved in. And that was in September, where the fronts are expected to be stronger.

The only time I can remember a front comparably vigorous this time of year was during 2004, when the trough that curved Charley into Florida brought record cold air to the Gulf Coast states for a week.



Well.....in July 1967 a cold front brought temps as low as 49 in Florida. So you never know!
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1448. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Utor (965 hPa) located at 17.2N 119.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 18.6N 114.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.2N 111.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 22.5N 109.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland southern China
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Quoting 1437. sar2401:

Same wording as the 8:00, so no big increase in confidence there.



Honestly, atmospheric conditions are going to have to change considerably for anything at all to develop in the Caribbean and GoM. The Caribbean has 40-50 kts shear. Nothing will develop in that regardless of how much moisture piles up. The moisture and shear that is there now is mostly the result of diffluent air from overland interaction with an higher latitude amplified monsoonal trough from the perennial Columbian Low up through Panama and Costa Rico to about 10n, and not the result of TPW piling up from the moisture gyre of a westwardly moving twave.



The models may be seeing some slight development, but again, things will have to change considerably. In addition, the Bermuda High is nosing hard westwards as well. And, I think it was Kori earlier that said he believed the CONUS trough was going to be more of a shortwave trough than a deep, amplified longwave trough. I think he's right.

I think we have better chances of seeing the surface low out in the Atlantic developing amidst the considerable dry air and lower shear quicker than we will see anything develop over the next several days in the Caribbean.
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Quoting 1442. sar2401:

I don't know, Kori. I'm inclined to agree with you because of climatology, but the locals have gotten more on board with this cold front being abnormally strong for this time of year. They are now forecasting highs of 82 for both Friday and Saturday. You know how that is down here. It would be kind of like a high of 45 in Cleveland. The GFS was saying the same thing yesterday and the locals thought it was bull, but they were a lot more confident in spotter chat tonight. I hope it's true. I have an antenna I need to get up on my black shingled roof, and it would be nice to do it without burning my hand every time I touched anything.


20F below normal, as per that graph Walshy posted, is ridiculous for the middle of August; that's colder than it got here after Lee moved through in 2011 and the strong cold front that caused it to become extratropical over Alabama moved in. And that was in September, where the fronts are expected to be stronger.

The only time I can remember a front comparably vigorous this time of year was during 2004, when the trough that curved Charley into Florida brought record cold air to the Gulf Coast states for a week.
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This is not utor!!! New storm forms maybe cat 5!
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Quoting 1441. Camille33:
New tropical storm near africa on ecmwf!!!
About time the model that has been performing the worst this year is showing something.
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Key to this forecast is how strong it gets in the Western Caribbean and if it can maintain that intensity to landfall. I still am saying a moderate Tropical Storm, but we cannot rule out a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast with warm sst and a good moisture field to work with. Shear forecasts for more than 3 days should also be taken with a grain of salt.
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1442. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously? I'm willing to bet the trough isn't going to be nearly that deep, and I have climatology on my side to support that. :P

Cool, dry air? Sure, I can buy that. But I don't see anything in the model fields to indicate an abnormally deep trough having adequate upper forcing to generate air temperatures that cold. Trough seems a little amplified, but it looks more shortwave in nature than longwave.

I'd say that's overdone.

I don't know, Kori. I'm inclined to agree with you because of climatology, but the locals have gotten more on board with this cold front being abnormally strong for this time of year. They are now forecasting highs of 82 for both Friday and Saturday. You know how that is down here. It would be kind of like a high of 45 in Cleveland. The GFS was saying the same thing yesterday and the locals thought it was bull, but they were a lot more confident in spotter chat tonight. I hope it's true. I have an antenna I need to get up on my black shingled roof, and it would be nice to do it without burning my hand every time I touched anything.
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New tropical storm near africa on ecmwf!!!
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Quoting 1439. GTstormChaserCaleb:
FIM-7


Well...this may not be our storm here in TX :/ Time to wait for the next one...maybe Humberto like 2007?
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FIM-7

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1438. sar2401
Quoting wxchaser97:
Small chance of severe thunderstorms on my birthday, I'll take it.

Happy Birthday. Don't go hydroplaning for your driver's test. :-)
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1437. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 120503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Same wording as the 8:00, so no big increase in confidence there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1432. Tribucanes:
Camille33, your use of exclamation marks is just hilarious. You certainly have a passion. Blog is ready for some action, any action.

No more storm in gulf coast!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am happy about that!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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