Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

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Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

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1536. IKE

Quoting Waltanater:
..who cares...I doubt they are even paying attention.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

CORRECTED FOR MISSING SENTENCE

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting 1530. IKE:

Uh...you left out a line NHC!!!!!!
..who cares...I doubt they are even paying attention.
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Quoting 1520. sebastianflorida:
LET 2013 HURRICANE SEASON BEGIN, BUT FIRST




SET THE TIMER TO 3 DAYS
It started over 2 months ago! Where were you?!
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1533. ncstorm
that is one big wave about to emerge off the africa coast on the last frame


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Good Morning/Evening.

What are Cajun Vegetables? (corn and potatoes with ole bay? Swamp Cabbage and Greens?)

In our fleet of hurricane response equipment, do we have temporary cell towers with power generators?
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1530. IKE

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Uh...you left out a line NHC!!!!!!
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1528. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC..will be back later..we could be looking at a serious rain threat..

A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GOM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
THE PAST 2 WEEKS HAVE BEEN DRY...MUCH OF THE REGION IS STILL
ABOVE...TO WELL ABOVE...NORMAL FOR RAINFALL THIS SUMMER...SO
FLOODING COULD BECOME A RENEWED CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS/CMC
HINTING AT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GOM
AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE WKND...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
COMMENT ON THIS POTENTIAL...ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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still 20% the next 5 days
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1525. ncstorm
precip up to 384 hours
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1524. ncstorm
east coast threat area seems to be increasing with the SPC outlook for day 2..

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labuyu?
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I'm off to go 'play' with the kiddies. Everyone have a great Monday!
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Scenes of storm horror in 'Labuyo'-hit Aurora



Power lines were toppled, houses were destroyed and the roof of a public hospital was blown off in Casiguran town, Aurora province after typhoon Labuyo (international codename Utor) made landfall here early Monday.

Footage taken by ABS-CBN News showed scenes of devastation in the typhoon-hit town. Roads in Casiguran were rendered impassable due to toppled trees. Some of the trees fell on top of houses while concrete lampposts were also downed by the typhoon.

The municipal government said 80% of infrastructure in the town was destroyed including schools, roads and houses.

The town has become isolated from the rest of Aurora due to lack of cell phone signals. Road networks linking Casiguran to other parts of Aurora were cut off due to landslides and floods in some areas, ABS-CBN reporter Raffy Santos said.

Local officials said they are having a hard time assessing the damage due to lack of communication.

Residents admitted Typhoon Labuyo is the strongest typhoon to hit Casiguran. One fear among residents is a possible lack of food and potable water if the town remains isolated.

As of posting, there is no way to bring goods into Casiguran except via the sea route, plane or chopper.

Strong winds also tore off the roof of the local hospital, the report said. %u201CPatients are now being moved to the town hall where they will set up a makeshift hospital and treatment center until help arrives,%u201D Santos reported.

Aurora Governor Gerardo Noveras earlier said some parts of the province are currently suffering from power outages and communication problems as Labuyo's strong wind toppled several trees and electric posts.

The hardest hit towns in Aurora are Dinalungan, Dilasag and Casiguran, according to the province's civil defense office. Landslides also remain a threat to motorists and residents in the said towns.

In Dinalungan, several electric posts were toppled, leaving the town without electricity, according to Mayor Tito Tubigan.

At least 106 units in a housing project and 489 more around the town were damaged after being battered by the typhoon.

Twelve school buildings were also damaged in the town. Some 135 individuals were also evacuated to a nearby school.

The province's agriculture sector was also hit by the typhoon, but authorities have yet to make an assessment of the damage.

'Labuyo' weakens

In its 11 a.m. update, PAGASA said Labuyo weakened after interacting with the rugged terrrains of north Luzon.

Labuyo was located within the vicinity of Baguio as of 10 a.m., and was packing maximum winds of 140 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 170 kph.

The typhoon was moving west northwest at 19 kph.

At a press conference, PAGASA forecaster Jori Loiz said Labuyo may exit the Philippine landmass through La Union province on Monday afternoon if it maintains its speed and direction.

Labuyo is forecast to be 360 kms west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur or outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning.

Loiz explained that Labuyo was being prevented by a high pressure ridge from moving northward.

Public storm warning signal number 3 remains hoisted over Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan.

Signal number 2 remains up over Isabela, Aurora, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Abra, Southern Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Tarlac and Nueva Ecija.

The rest of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Babuyan Group of Islands, Calayan Group of Islands, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island and Metro Manila remain under signal no. 1.

An estimated rainfall of 7 - 15 millimeters per hour (moderate-heavy) is expected within the typhoon's 500-km diameter.

Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas under signal numbers 3, 2 and 1 are advised against possible floods and landslides.

The typhoon continues to enhance the southwest monsoon (habagat) , bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.

Fishermen especially those using small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Southern Luzon and western seaboard of Visayas due to big waves generated by the typhoon. With reports by Raffy Santos, ABS-CBN News; and Dharel Placido, ABS-CBNnews.com
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LET 2013 HURRICANE SEASON BEGIN, BUT FIRST




SET THE TIMER TO 3 DAYS
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After reading TWO and several NWS discussions this morning, I have to agree to discount latest run of
GFS regarding Developing a system in the Gulf.
Just doesn't make sense for a weak system to turn
Northward as GFS is showing.
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1518. GatorWX
Actually I suppose a bit moister than yesterday, but overall fairly dry for FL in mid August. Referring to Caribbean low, it seems broad and conditions are not great. We'll see what happens. I can't imagine conditions won't improve over time. They're quite hostile however. It's been an interesting season thus far. Hard to imagine what's going to happen. 15-18 mostly weak systems, or are things going to really pop sooner or later? Looks like 2006 right now. Shear has been awfully persistent. Long way to go and obviously climatology tells us were still in the infancy of a given season.

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1517. ncstorm
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1516. IKE
5 day qpf.........


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NAWLINS NWS misspelled SENSE as SINCE. I guess that's why they're mets and not English majors.
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Quoting 1509. MahFL:


I don't recall ANY story in the press about a citizen having to shoot a looter dead in ANY Hurricane event, in the USA.
Anyone else recall such a story ?


I don't know about in the press, but we had a small group of teens drive down our one way road out in the country with no lights on, get out and head towards the three houses here. My one neighbor has a family member who is mentally damaged and rarely sleeps. He was up and staring outside, saw them and woke his brother up. Ozzie went out with a shotgun and they ran from my yard, his and his daughters. This was at the beginning of a hurricane. So yeah, there are those who go out looking for houses of people who have evacuated.
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1513. IKE
From New Orleans NWS....

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THIS WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MADE THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TROPICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH NOTHING REALLY
DEVELOPING. THE GFS MOVES THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
ERN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST UNTIL IT REACHES THE FAR WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THEN STARTS TO TURN IT INTO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. BY
LATE SAT A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL GULF DEVELOPS AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE AL/FL COAST AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OR POSSIBLY A HYBRID. THE GFS IS PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT BUYING WHY
SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD START TO TURN RIGHT AND RE-CURVE IN THE
GULF. TYPICALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED MID LVL
STRUCTURE DONT TEND TO FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS AS MUCH AND WILL
JUST KEEP MOVING WEST...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF DOES. IN FACT THE
ECMWF NEVER EVEN GETS THE WAVE NORTH OF 20N LAT. IF THIS WAVE DOES
NOT DEVELOP BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN THEN THE ECMWF MAKES
FAR MORE SINCE AND THUS WHY WE ARE USING THE ECMWF WINDS RIGHT NOW
FOR FRI-SUN. IF THE WAVE CAN GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED IN THE CARIBBEAN
THEN WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MAY BE RIGHT. /CAB/
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Good morning to all. Some scattered showers will move thru PR today as the Tropical Wave moves away from our longitudes with trailing moisture.
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good.morning..another.front?
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1509. MahFL
Quoting 1409. sar2401:

...I think having pepper spray is a good idea for any law-abiding citizen. It's non-lethal and can save you from serious injury or death. A gun is meant to kill, and, if you need one, there is no substitute...


I don't recall ANY story in the press about a citizen having to shoot a looter dead in ANY Hurricane event, in the USA.
Anyone else recall such a story ?
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1508. IKE
6Z GFS @ 129 hours.....


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1507. GatorWX
Quoting 1502. PensacolaDoug:
It doesn't take much. Just question the pet theory a little.


pet theories?? On here?

LoL

Morning all!! Nice dry albeit hot day yesterday. Went to the beach and baked. Feeling it today. Looks to be a similar day today.

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NWS Mobile mentions it.
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1505. IKE

Quoting LargoFl:
I was just checking all the nws forecasts..all say it is too early for a weekend forecast, as nothing has formed yet and confidence is real low....but most of them do say, tropical moisture will get into the gulf, so for my area in central florida the rain chances go up to 50/60% fri-sat...we'll see what happens.
NWS in Tallahassee doesn't even mention a low in the GOM....yet.
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1504. LargoFl
I was just checking all the nws forecasts..all say it is too early for a weekend forecast, as nothing has formed yet and confidence is real low....but most of them do say, tropical moisture will get into the gulf, so for my area in central florida the rain chances go up to 50/60% fri-sat...we'll see what happens.
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone, A pleasant 73 degrees with a not so pleasant 73 degree dewpoint. I might be able to swim to school today. It's day two of four where I'll spend it showing kindergartners how to jump, skip and walk a tightrope to see if they can do it, too.

Anyone see CoopsWife? Breakfast's on the sideboard:Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Canadian bacon, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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It doesn't take much. Just question the pet theory a little.
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1501. VR46L
Quoting 1500. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin' gang. I'll try not to tick anyone off today.


LOL!!!

Your not the only one who seems to do so ... but I am trying to be good and stay away from trouble ...but sometimes its hard to!
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G'mornin' gang. I'll try not to tick anyone off today.
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1499. VR46L
Quoting 1497. LargoFl:
one thing IS for sure..the blog now has something to follow and watch out for huh..been a long dry spell for storms so far


Yeah ! despite the four storms (which were small pretty weak ), there has been no drama this year so far... But one bad storm makes the season what it will be seen as in history .
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1498. LargoFl
and nothing is official until...GRO gives us the Blob alert huh..LOL
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1497. LargoFl
one thing IS for sure..the blog now has something to follow and watch out for huh..been a long dry spell for storms so far
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1496. LargoFl
sure is a lot of moisture down there..0z nam.........
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1495. VR46L
Quoting 1493. LargoFl:
good morning!..we do need to wait a few days,it hasn't developed yet and models are split right now,some have it a strong TS moving into the northern gulf, some have it weaker moving to mexico or southern texas..still early yet..my guess is we will be more sure by Thursday.


I think you are right there , CMC are going big on it , Navgem have changed their mind ... GFS are just seeming a rain maker and the Euro and UK are seeing a trough ... Too soon to say for definite as no one has Id a surface feature convincingly yet !
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MOBILE NWS Discussion this morning.



LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING ENOUGH ENERGY IN
THE FLOW ALOFT (AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF) TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT/TROF BOUNDARY THAT WILL STILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAINTAINS CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS DO DIFFER
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF BY FRIDAY. GFS DEVELOPS A SYSTEM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FRIDAY...AND WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF ADVERTISED TO THE NORTH THAN
IN THE ECMWF...DRAWS THE POTENTIAL CYCLONE UP TOWARD THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS NO GULF DEVELOPMENT
AT ALL. THE CANADIAN ALSO HINTS AT SOME TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF BY MID WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS WEEK...BUT WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS
FEATURE...YET. IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WERE TO OCCUR...THE DEEP UPPER TROF
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION WOULD LIKELY CREATE SHEAR THAT
WOULD TEND TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
REGARDLESS... AS MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE A AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THE LONGER TERMED PERIOD. THIS WIDESPREAD PCPN...ABUNDANT
COULD COVER AND TROFINESS ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
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1493. LargoFl
Quoting 1492. VR46L:


Morning Largo !

Thanks for the Coffee

Umm that looks like the panhamdle of Florida gets the brunt of it to me ;)

good morning!..we do need to wait a few days,it hasn't developed yet and models are split right now,some have it a strong TS moving into the northern gulf, some have it weaker moving to mexico or southern texas..still early yet..my guess is we will be more sure by Thursday.
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1492. VR46L
Quoting 1491. LargoFl:
GFS has it just a tad closer to florida this run......


Morning Largo !

Thanks for the Coffee

Umm that looks like the panhamdle of Florida gets the brunt of it to me ;)

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1491. LargoFl
GFS has it just a tad closer to florida this run......
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1490. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked,have a great day!!..
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1489. vis0
CREDIT: Wxmaps.org




when i last posted a wxmaps-org animation (July 25th 2013) TS DORIAN was smack in the middle of the Atlantic basin, wxmaps animation predictions were very close.

A ~week earlier as DORIAN was still a TD i predicted its strength,  85% correct (minus 15% as i stated if it heads NW after Bahamas it becomes a Low Cat. Hurricane) & area it traveled at 95% (minus 5% as posted on Dr. Masters' blog thought it would go from north of Puerto Rico towards Carolinas then north/Northeast, instead it stayed further south hugging Hispaniola.) Percentages are from drawing a 360 degree circle chart and how close the actual path & strength stayed on those circular charts.

shrt cmmnt: watch out for 2 TS heading towards the U.S. coastlines within 2 days of each other,  & read my blog as to why i picked this wxmaps-org predictions.

looong cmment: (as not to have it removed its on my blog titled: "wxmap-org ptII"


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I'm skeptical the front will be as potent as some people are saying, but for a system to move northeastward out of the Yucatan and into the coast, the mid-level flow has to be pretty darn anomalous; most central/northern Gulf Coast storms this time of year move north or northwest before their respective landfall.
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1487. VR46L
Quoting 1485. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Idk? But that is one of the more ridiculous statements I have heard in awhile. Definitely think that one was just added in there with no basis of research whatsoever. Anyways I'm going to bed, have a good night. :)


Good Night ! I have already started my day ...
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Quoting 1459. SunriseSteeda:


What about the front that Wilma rode up the coast?

I remember sitting in shorts and tshirt on my back porch when the power went out around dawn. It was about 80 degrees and humid. 24 hours later the wind chill was about 45.



Highly amplified cold fronts like that one, although rare, would be expected to occur in late October at a return rate that is much more frequent than one in mid August.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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