Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

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Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 627. SFLWeatherman:
Hey go to this!
Link
oh man TY very much11
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Do any models forecast the Gulf disturbance becoming a Hurricane ?
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2232
Good Afternoon, my condolences to the people of the Philippines who are riding out Major Hurricane Utor at this hour. Unfortunately, the system undergo rapid intensification in a very short time leave little time for preparations. Watching this reminds that it only takes one storm to make a season bad regardless of the numbers.



In the Atlantic models continue to show possible development from a frontal boundary stuck in the Gulf/NW Caribbean next week. The kelvin wave transversing the Atlantic should provide some upward motion to the Atlantic. The MJO which have not been amplified is suppose to move into Phase 1 or 2 sometime later this month. A amplified MJO pulse in near the peak of the season is all a recipe for trouble down the road. Hurricane Utor is an example why Mother Nature can flip the script and produce major systems in any region of the tropics at anytime.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 632. PalmBeachWeather:
"How humid is it"?


Airport has 75% currently, and I have 91%. Temp is at 81.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10500
Quoting 616. Astrometeor:
It's so humid here in Tennessee, the windows are washing themselves. That usually doesn't happen up here.
"How humid is it"?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:24 PM PDT on August 11, 2013
Clear
84.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 7.4 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.4 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

Another day in the mid to high 80's, used AC 2 days out of 13.
More Goldilocks weather.

Sounds like the fire didn't affect you, thank goodness. We've been worried about you since the news of the wildfire hit.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17463
Quoting 625. PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:24 PM PDT on August 11, 2013
Clear
84.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 7.4 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.4 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

Another day in the mid to high 80's, used AC 2 days out of 13.
More Goldilocks weather.
Ped...We were worried about you... Missing in action
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SSideBrac:


Do not think that is the case necessarily - much depends on aspects such as Government resolve, Building Codes, Investment in Shelters/Improvements, People Training and Awareness and Effective Dissemination of Information. Haiti gets hit quite often and I would use them as a "model" for being "adept"!

All that said, I do not really know how Florida would cope - in the short term - with the numbers and intensities that Phillipines seems to have. However, USA is privileged to have what many nations do not have - a very wealthy (comparatively) Emergency System at Federal and Emergency levels and a large depth of resources. I dare say that the average Air Base in USA has more rotary wing effort than the whole of the Phillipines Air Force for instance.

Indeed. Just one Aircraft Carrier Battle Group and one Underway Combat Support Group have more air, naval, and logistics resources than most countries. Not so good if you're on the wrong side of a shooting war with them, but there is no force in the world that can bring so many resources so quickly to a disaster than the Navy and Marines. We are very lucky to live in a country which not only has these resources available but has also been the world leader in disaster relief. God forbid but, when we get a big storm, the sight of those ships offshore will be very comforting.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17463
Quoting 625. PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:24 PM PDT on August 11, 2013
Clear
84.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 7.4 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.4 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

Another day in the mid to high 80's, used AC 2 days out of 13.
More Goldilocks weather.
where have you been mr MIA was wundering about you a few days now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey go to this!
Link
Quoting 618. LargoFl:
geez when I bought this new puter last week..with this new windows 8 I forgot to save all my model sites grrrrr I uused to have many great sites..now I have to rebuild grrr...in some ways I like this new windows 8..its different in how I view things etc
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting 618. LargoFl:
geez when I bought this new puter last week..with this new windows 8 I forgot to save all my model sites grrrrr I uused to have many great sites..now I have to rebuild grrr...in some ways I like this new windows 8..its different in how I view things etc
I like calling winboxes

I have win 8 as well with radeon graphics card with intel core i7 with 33 inch hdmi senseye led monitor
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Indian Hills, Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:24 PM PDT on August 11, 2013
Clear
84.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 7.4 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.4 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

Another day in the mid to high 80's, used AC 2 days out of 13.
More Goldilocks weather.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6253
Quoting 603. unknowncomic:
What bag?
You must be too young to remember the"unknown comic" on the "GONG SHOW"...That is my references....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
unusual for a cold front to make it to the gulf in august..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting 609. Sfloridacat5:
What storm was it last year that the GFS said Florida, but the ECMWF said Texas?

Most the meteorologist (including TWC) predicted a Texas landfall in x number of days. The storm ended up going into the Florida big bend/panhandle region.



The first 2 NHC projected paths showed Texas to as a minimal Hurricane for Debby
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2232
621. VR46L
UTOR in Rainbow

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 615. LargoFl:
well your rains will come from that cold front coming down...but you..should be listening to your local weather folks..not someone on here huh


I stopped listening to the local weather guys the day one said on the radio "right now there is no rain anywhere close to Nashville, beautiful day today". It was pouring rain at the time of his statement. That was several years ago. Now I check the NWS only. And this place for the tropics and severe weather.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10500
geez when I bought this new puter last week..with this new windows 8 I forgot to save all my model sites grrrrr I uused to have many great sites..now I have to rebuild grrr...in some ways I like this new windows 8..its different in how I view things etc
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
It's so humid here in Tennessee, the windows are washing themselves. That usually doesn't happen up here.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10500
Quoting 572. sar2401:

So it's not going to rain hardly anywhere else in the United States between now and next Saturday? Even if we get that big low, I'm only going to get a lousy 1.5 inches of rain? These GFS precipitation estimates are always confused.
well your rains will come from that cold front coming down...but you..should be listening to your local weather folks..not someone on here huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Man, I didn't go to sleep until 3:30 this morning, and I didn't get up until an hour and a half ago. lol
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501


Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
Quoting 608. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is that right by you?


about 15 miles away from me..I live in Wilmington..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 574. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

11W OVERLAND CYCLONE UTOR
WEAKENING FLAG FLAG


The typhoon appears to have begun weakening significantly prior to landfall. Looking at all the current weather observations for Philippines, the highest sustained wind reported is 34 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 609. Sfloridacat5:
What storm was it last year that the GFS said Florida, but the ECMWF said Texas?

Most the meteorologist (including TWC) predicted a Texas landfall in x number of days. The storm ended up going into the Florida big bend/panhandle region.


Debby
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What storm was it last year that the GFS said Florida, but the ECMWF said Texas?

Most the meteorologist (including TWC) predicted a Texas landfall in x number of days. The storm ended up going into the Florida big bend/panhandle region.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 607. ncstorm:
Frank Strait Fan Club
Retweeted AccuWeather.com (@breakingweather):

A funnel cloud was reported by a NWS employee near Wrightsville Beach, NC. http://t.co/rRuLRXi8yO
Is that right by you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Frank Strait Fan Club
Retweeted AccuWeather.com (@breakingweather):

A funnel cloud was reported by a NWS employee near Wrightsville Beach, NC. http://t.co/rRuLRXi8yO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting 598. nigel20:

Hi Caleb! How's the weather in your neck of the woods?
Hot like a fyah! :P

Partly Cloudy
Temperature
94.8 %uFFFDF
Feels Like 113 %uFFFDF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Philippine Air Force :: Official Website
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 539. PalmBeachWeather:
That bag sure has to be super hot today
What bag?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
602. Skyepony (Mod)
Been a little sad watching PWSs slowly disappear on WUndermap from Utor. Most don't upload but maybe once an hour as it is.


Camille33 & SuperStorm093 ~ When we look at models we tend to look at 850mb vort because that model could be off either way...looking at surface alone isn't near as effective, especially if one is working down from the mid levels. It's pretty standard to look at & repost 850mb along with sea level pressures. Sometimes you can have scary looking vort with no closed low which would be much less windy than one that was closed, you see that on the sea level pressure. You have to look at all of it. It's what we do here. Try not to be so afraid of bright colors..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 564. RTSplayer:


I don't know, honestly.

I'm busy for the next few days, so I'm not going to be able to do anything anyway. I'll try to get someone else to deal with it.

Try the feed store first, and if they don't know, I'll contact SLU or LSU. Someone there will know.


Assuming you're in SE LA, here's contact info for the LSU Ag Center, SE Region. Link

The website has loads of information, including tree info. You can also search 'sycamore' to get specific.

Hope this helps. I'd be interested to know if the trees can be cured.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1914
Quoting 593. Socalmargie:
i drive through ilse of hope everyday but thats all ill tell you
Chatham county
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 592. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jason?

Hi Caleb! How's the weather in your neck of the woods?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 392. NCHurricane2009:

Aren't the Philippines the "Florida" of the western Pacific typhoon season? I also sometimes wonder if areas that get struck a lot by tropical cyclones are more adept to dealing with them then areas that are not...


Do not think that is the case necessarily - much depends on aspects such as Government resolve, Building Codes, Investment in Shelters/Improvements, People Training and Awareness and Effective Dissemination of Information. Haiti gets hit quite often and I would use them as a "model" for being "adept"!

All that said, I do not really know how Florida would cope - in the short term - with the numbers and intensities that Phillipines seems to have. However, USA is privileged to have what many nations do not have - a very wealthy (comparatively) Emergency System at Federal and Emergency levels and a large depth of resources. I dare say that the average Air Base in USA has more rotary wing effort than the whole of the Phillipines Air Force for instance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 588. WeatherInterest:
Joe Bastardi
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical



Once we see consistancy with the GFS, I'm pretty much a believer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 485. RTSplayer:
Does anyone here know about tree diseases?

IN the past two years we've had five sycamore trees die: two of them two years ago and three last year.

Now we have one in the back yard with about 1/3rd of it's leaves turning brown, and the one in the front yard has about a couple percent of it's leaves turning brown, even though we are watering them to make sure they have plenty water.

On our other property, a few miles away, we had sycamore trees for years and never once had one of them die.

I don't see any evidence of pest insects or funguses, so it seems like something viral or bacterial might be involved.

All of the non-sycamore trees in the yard are doing fine, not a brown leaf on any of them.


Another often ignored cause of tree death is air pollution, i.e., tropospheric ozone, methane, sulfur dioxide and others.

Check out

http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/p/basic-premise.htm l
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Quoting 592. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jason?
Maybe....
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Quoting 580. Camille33:
!!
Jason?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:

This is getting interesting...and confusing! GFS and FIM 9 say FL but the rest of the models dont.

The GFS and FIM-9 are the only two that develop a strong tropical storm, and they both show it right off the Alabama/Florida coast, with the GFS wanting to bring it straight into SE AL and have it pass about three streets over from me. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17463
Quoting 577. Stormchaser121:

This is getting interesting...and confusing! GFS and FIM 9 say FL but the rest of the models dont.


Where in Florida are you speaking of?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 586. Socalmargie:
i do not want to give that info :)
Okee Dokee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL I really do have to laugh at us here..for days and days folks were complaining about no storms to track...then a good model predicts one and what happens here? Lmao...yeah its a whole week away and models DO change but hey..we can now follow the GFS and see IF some of the other model fall in step with it in the next few days huh.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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