Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

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Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

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986. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 976. nrtiwlnvragn:


HRD has an experimental Basin Scale product that is part of the HFIP.


couldn't get the link to open for me ..
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Quoting 982. wunderkidcayman:
new surface map

CV TW/Low deepening
plus new surface trof in E Carib islands


Where's the map bro?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WELL REMOVED FROM
THE SURFACE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS WELL AS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSUE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
We should start to see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the northwestern Caribbean sea on August 14th.
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new surface map

CV TW/Low deepening
plus new surface trof in E Carib islands
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Quoting sar2401:

It's government time, so 7:05 is "about 8:00". I've seen them do this before when they have a canned forecast. I think they put it up early so they all go over to Cracker Barrel or something. :-)


Edit: Just noticed no yellow circle though. I guess even the NHC isn't sure where this thing is going to form.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15350
Quoting 955. nrtiwlnvragn:


Slow day.... and it's Stewie he was just jonesing to start tracking it.
LOLLL
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Quoting 976. nrtiwlnvragn:


HRD has an experimental Basin Scale product that is part of the HFIP.


thanks NRT..saved it to my favorites..
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McKenzie enjoying a hot summer day...Are you watching Dexter?

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Utor looks like the center is about half way across Luzon now if im not mistaken and still very strong.
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Quoting 973. ncstorm:
I thought the HWRF was only run on invests?


HRD has an experimental Basin Scale product that is part of the HFIP.
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Quoting 962. CybrTeddy:

Either that or...


Great scott!
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Quoting 971. nrtiwlnvragn:


Or

NHC is currently developing a corresponding five-day genesis potential graphic that
may become available later this season.


ummmmmmm........ok
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
I thought the HWRF was only run on invests?
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last frame on africa GFS--

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Quoting 968. mitchelace5:


I don't see it highlighted on the NHC site. Maybe they didn't highlight it because of it having no chance to develop I suppose?


Or

NHC is currently developing a corresponding five-day genesis potential graphic that
may become available later this season.
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Quoting 965. SFLWeatherman:
Did you see the HWRF at 126HR
Meaningless imo, but nice to know.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
Quoting 965. SFLWeatherman:
Did you see the HWRF at 126HR



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Quoting 963. HurricaneAndre:
Let the games begin.


I don't see it highlighted on the NHC site. Maybe they didn't highlight it because of it having no chance to develop I suppose?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
Big Oak, Canaveral National Seashore near Mims;

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Did you see the HWRF at 126HR
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964. yoboi
Quoting 899. Tribucanes:



Except for you? You've been doing nothing but posting the same downcast with great confidence over and over again. If all you want to do is say the season is a bust why are you here again? What's the fishing term when you cast and then drive slowly in your boat?



shrimping.......
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Quoting 951. nrtiwlnvragn:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Let the games begin.
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Quoting 955. nrtiwlnvragn:


Slow day.... and it's Stewie he was just jonesing to start tracking it.
Either that or...
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
Quoting CybrTeddy:

But..

It's barely 7pm.

It's government time, so 7:05 is "about 8:00". I've seen them do this before when they have a canned forecast. I think they put it up early so they all go over to Cracker Barrel or something. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15350
Quoting CybrTeddy:

But..

It's barely 7pm.


Maybe they have a game to watch.
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Typhoon Utor's COC is now visible on Radar.



Rainfall intensity as of 08/12/13 07:00 AM
Pangasinan, Laoac Poblacion : 139.0 mm/hour
Ifugao, Kiangan Municipal Hall : 88.0 mm/hour
La Union, Agoo : 48.0 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Tadian : 29.0 mm/hour
Nueva Ecija, Guimba Town Hall : 55.0 mm/hour
Nueva Ecija, Llanera Town Hall : 92.0 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Aritao : 64.008 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Dupax Del Sur Municipal Hall : 75.438 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Kasibu : 31.75 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Kayapa Municipal Hall : 31.242 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Aloragat Bridge : 40.0 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Asingan : 17.78 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Dipalo Bridge : 40.0 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Macalong Bridge : 25.908 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Malanay : 18.288 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Psu Sta. Maria : 23.114 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Sto. Tomas : 17.018 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Tagamusing Bridge : 26.67 mm/hour
Quirino, Maddela Institute Of Technology : 176.53 mm/hour
Quirino, Nagtipunan : 16.256 mm/hour
Batangas, Balete : 24.892 mm/hour
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Quoting 951. nrtiwlnvragn:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Nice to see the 5-Day Forecast in use.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10253
Quoting LargoFl:
wish they would say how many inches of rain the Black area's are....

It's on that dashed pink area, which means "We don't know but it's a lot of rain". ;-) The GFS keep changing the areas of heaviest rain, and it keeps expanding the areas of heaviest rain toward the Yucatan. I think it's trying to connect the low to the moisture fetch which will have to exist from the Yucatan if this low is ever going to tun into anything.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15350
Quoting 954. CybrTeddy:

But..

It's barely 7pm.


Slow day.... and it's Stewie he was just jonesing to start tracking it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 951. nrtiwlnvragn:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
But..

It's barely 7pm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
Quoting 949. mitchelace5:


Will NHC begin tracking that anytime soon?

I'm sure they are aware of it as they're looking at the same models we are. But there is nothing currently to "track".
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NOOOOO


Well, the good thing is that the GFS is always wrong. :-) I was writing in a previous post about how dry it's getting here while you guys in north Georgia are still saturated. I'm in SE Alabama, on the south edge of the heavy rain area, and you're on the north end. With any luck, the GFS will give the rain to me and leave you alone.
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Quoting 948. SFLWeatherman:
72HR


Will NHC begin tracking that anytime soon?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
72HR
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
wish they would say how many inches of rain the Black area's are....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
Quoting 934. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not wishcasting was just showing how early season troughs are not as uncommon as one would think. And used Charley as an example for a storm that made a hard right hand turn because of a deep trough.

no problem. I have watched you posting the models and they're showing what they are, not you're fault. They just seem to have been out to lunch most of this season to the point where we're taking these ghost storms from the models and giving them way too much credit. Lets see something form first before jumping on board is what I'm getting at. When it does then I'm game.

BTW, not a big proponent of this new 5 day outlook from the NWS, just filled out a questionnaire about it today basically stating that its way too early to be asking my thoughts on it. Let's wait until the end of the season so we have something to point at. I personally am not a big fan of it but who knows how good it'll "shine through" by the end of the season.
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Quoting 940. CybrTeddy:

Looking at the latest 18z run of the GFS, it's becoming clear to me personally that the season is about to take off within the next two weeks.
  • Our first area of interest is in the near-term, within the next 5 days as a tropical wave currently situated over the western Caribbean will be moving west-northwestward and won't be a threat to development. By the time the system is approaching the Yucatan, we may see some signs of organization as surface pressures may begin to be lowering. The initial genesis of this cyclone appears to take place by 111 hours, and landfall occurs two days later. This probably isn't enough time to become a truly significant system, but we could get a 50kt tropical storm out of this.


  • After that, our attention will begin to shift towards the Cape Verde islands as the wave train is about to take off. The GFS is showing numerous tropical waves beyond 180 hours that will have the opportunity to develop into tropical cyclones. It appears though that the GFS is emerging these waves too far north, as it did with Dorian, and has the first one at least being choked out by dry air. I think, personally as suggested by the position of the ITCZ, that any system that emerges will emerge to the south of the Cape Verde islands and would become stronger than advertised on this model. SST's in the MDR are rising and it's likely that anything that does develop will also feature a favorable shear environment as suggested by the 850mb-200mb zonal shear forecasts. Beyond that wave, well out in future land, the GFS is showing several tropical waves with a high likelihood of becoming tropical cyclones emerging into the Atlantic. We're getting into the time of the season where these things happen, regardless of what the ECMWF is saying. 


That is a great summary of the big picture going thru the next couple of weeks.
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Quoting 939. GeorgiaStormz:
NOOOOO

...yes regardless of wind speeds...flooding rains could be a real issue next weekend..if you flood easily,better stay alert
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


That's the biggest worry right now. We're pretty much saturated on the panhandle. A slow tropical storm anywhere along the gulf coast would be a major flooding event.

Although I think it depends exactly where in the Southeast you live. I know some parts of the Panhandle and north Georgia are still pretty well saturated. Here is SE AL, it's actually starting to get too dry. Of course, the high today was 106, and it's still 104 now, so it doesn't take much to suck a lot of moisture out of the ground in this kind of heat. I feel kind of bad wishing for a couple of inches of rain when I know some of my geographical neighbors would like to see it not rain for at a least another week.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15350
Quoting 936. Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes.EPAC active means Atlantic being the opposite.
Not always.September may be active for both.As usually is an active month in both basins.
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 Looking at the latest 18z run of the GFS, it's becoming clear to me personally that the season is about to take off within the next two weeks.
  • Our first area of interest is in the near-term, within the next 5 days as a tropical wave currently situated over the western Caribbean will be moving west-northwestward and won't be a threat to development. By the time the system is approaching the Yucatan, we may see some signs of organization as surface pressures may begin to be lowering. The initial genesis of this cyclone appears to take place by 111 hours, and landfall occurs two days later. This probably isn't enough time to become a truly significant system, but we could get a 50kt tropical storm out of this.
  

  • After that, our attention will begin to shift towards the Cape Verde islands as the wave train is about to take off. The GFS is showing numerous tropical waves beyond 180 hours that will have the opportunity to develop into tropical cyclones. It appears though that the GFS is emerging these waves too far north, as it did with Dorian, and has the first one at least being choked out by dry air. I think, personally as suggested by the position of the ITCZ, that any system that emerges will emerge to the south of the Cape Verde islands and would become stronger than advertised on this model. SST's in the MDR are rising and it's likely that anything that does develop will also feature a favorable shear environment as suggested by the 850mb-200mb zonal shear forecasts. Beyond that wave, well out in future land, the GFS is showing several tropical waves with a high likelihood of becoming tropical cyclones emerging into the Atlantic. We're getting into the time of the season where these things happen, regardless of what the ECMWF is saying. 
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
NOOOOO

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IF this does form next weekend it will be called ERIN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38541
Quoting 927. Gearsts:
But still shows the epac been active.


Models definitely been biased towards the EPAC this year and rightfully so once it dies down the Atlantic will start firing off.



Upward motion getting closer now in the Caribbean.



Have a good evening to all. And my condolences to the Philippines.

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Quoting 927. Gearsts:
But still shows the epac been active.


Yes.EPAC active means Atlantic being the opposite.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.