Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

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Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1030. hurricane23:


won't open..


Take out the %20 that gets inserted in the address bar.

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1035. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1034. whitewabit:


this is what I get ..


"There is a problem with this website's security certificate. "


LOL .. I give up .. probably IE7
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1034. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 1027. nrtiwlnvragn:


Try to get there this way, go to HRD Blog on right hand side click on "HWRF Experimental Real-time Model Products"

You will have to ignore the security warning about a site certificate. If not comfortable with that, then don't, but I don't know another way then to get to the website.


this is what I get ..


"There is a problem with this website's security certificate. "
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1033. SRQfl
Quoting 1025. sar2401:

We just went through this a couple of days ago, with an AOI with a 0%, 10%, 0%, and then it was dropped. In all those cases, it had a yellow circle. What does the text below the graphic have to do with that? It was discussed in the text, it was given a 0% percentage in 48 hours, but there's no yellow circle. I've just never seen that done before.


Basically, my understanding is that if there is chance of development within 48 hrs it will be circled, beyond 48, no circle. with the latest TWO, I believe they are saying no chance of development withing 48hrs, 20% chance after that. I may be wrong but that's what I take from it. Maybe we need a white crayon??? lol
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Here's where we should watch...



Link
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NICE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Worked for me, anyone else having an issue?

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?project Name=BASIN


won't open..
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1029. ncstorm
18z GFS Ensembles Spread..not so much on texas in this run

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13448
1028. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
well thanks to the GFS..the blog has become alive again...Largo see's Aussie up and about so he brews a fresh pot of Tea..enjoy...............well have a good night folks....eyes are closing lol.

GN, Largo. Keep an eye on the Yucatan, that's where the action, if there is any, will be coming from.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754
Quoting 1014. Astrometeor:


"Invalid Specified Project!"

So, no, didn't work for me either.


Try to get there this way, go to HRD Blog on right hand side click on "HWRF Experimental Real-time Model Products"

You will have to ignore the security warning about a site certificate. If not comfortable with that, then don't, but I don't know another way then to get to the website.
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Thank you
Quoting 1018. Hurricanes305:


Very cool graphic SFL :) I would put the yellow circle in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
1025. sar2401
Quoting SRQfl:


Man MH09, if they would just read the text associated with the 48 hour Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook...



Note text directly below graphic

We just went through this a couple of days ago, with an AOI with a 0%, 10%, 0%, and then it was dropped. In all those cases, it had a yellow circle. What does the text below the graphic have to do with that? It was discussed in the text, it was given a 0% percentage in 48 hours, but there's no yellow circle. I've just never seen that done before.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754
1024. beell
Quoting 1020. nrtiwlnvragn:


OK, now you are just messing with me.


LOL, nrt. That one is playing just fine, just now. Thought I'd give you a break-you've been working hard.
Gracias
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Quoting 689. MississippiWx:


It's already an an above average season. Next. Come up with something new.


Are we though? Is ACE above average?
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looks like we may have a busy few days coming up
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1820
Back to drought next week, nada in the GOM, if so it'll go somewhere else. Back to the grind.
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Quoting 1010. beell:


Worked fine but the "Riders on the Storm" music would not play during the 27 km slp loop. I may need to flush my cache.


OK, now you are just messing with me.
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1019. LargoFl
well thanks to the GFS..the blog has become alive again...Largo see's Aussie up and about so he brews a fresh pot of Tea..enjoy...............well have a good night folks....eyes are closing lol.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33342
Quoting 1007. SFLWeatherman:


Very cool graphic SFL :) I would put the yellow circle in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 1007. SFLWeatherman:

Nice so far
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1016. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Typhoon Utor's COC is now visible on Radar.



Rainfall intensity as of 08/12/13 07:00 AM
Pangasinan, Laoac Poblacion : 139.0 mm/hour
Ifugao, Kiangan Municipal Hall : 88.0 mm/hour
La Union, Agoo : 48.0 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Tadian : 29.0 mm/hour
Nueva Ecija, Guimba Town Hall : 55.0 mm/hour
Nueva Ecija, Llanera Town Hall : 92.0 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Aritao : 64.008 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Dupax Del Sur Municipal Hall : 75.438 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Kasibu : 31.75 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Kayapa Municipal Hall : 31.242 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Aloragat Bridge : 40.0 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Asingan : 17.78 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Dipalo Bridge : 40.0 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Macalong Bridge : 25.908 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Malanay : 18.288 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Psu Sta. Maria : 23.114 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Sto. Tomas : 17.018 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Tagamusing Bridge : 26.67 mm/hour
Quirino, Maddela Institute Of Technology : 176.53 mm/hour
Quirino, Nagtipunan : 16.256 mm/hour
Batangas, Balete : 24.892 mm/hour

Thankfully, except for a few places that must be sitting right under the bucket, the rainfall per hour doesn't look bad for such a large storm. I hope it stays that way.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754
1015. SRQfl
Quoting 998. MiamiHurricanes09:
The only reason they give it a percentage is for the sake of the 48 hour forecast, not because the area has a chance to develop within that time frame. It's already been done in the EPAC.

In 93E's case, they even had a medium chance of development within the 5 day range but since the feature didn't exist yet, nor did it post a threat to develop within the 48 hours, they didn't label it within the 48 hour forecast. Once it's a defined feature, with a potential to develop within 48 hours, they'll circle it.

Avila said that they'll develop a 5 day graphic at some point in the future should they continue to forecast 5 days out in the TWO.


Man MH09, if they would just read the text associated with the 48 hour Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook...



Note text directly below graphic
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Quoting 1001. nrtiwlnvragn:


Worked for me, anyone else having an issue?

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?project Name=BASIN


"Invalid Specified Project!"

So, no, didn't work for me either.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8246
Masdar City.

Link


Too bad those no comments section for these articles.

This isn't sustainable, it's a complete joke. They're building an arcology in the middle of the desert, with no obvious source of food or clothing resources. Oh wait, I suppose those goods will be trucked in on diesels, then inefficiently offloaded onto the all-electric trolleys outside of the city, before being carried into city (state owned?) markets for distribution.

This is no more sustainable than an amusement park, worse it's in the middle of a desert. At least six flags are usually some place nice.

I think they plan on growing all the food nearby hydroponically, but in all seriousness, this is an artificial city which isn't located near normal city resources, and did not arise out of self-emergent needs the way traditional towns and cities have arisen. It's like adding a high tech node to an obsolete system, but the obsolete system already had shorter pathways. So in spite of having higher tech, it's really a vestigial structure. They'll probably end up turning it into the most expensive college campus on the planet, because it won't have much other use.
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Rare check in on a weekend..... 0.86" in the gauge today, counting the 0.04" yesterday. This is the first significant less than a day rainfall the ENTIRE SUMMER SEASON at my place.
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Quoting 982. wunderkidcayman:
new surface map

CV TW/Low deepening
plus new surface trof in E Carib islands


Positive MJO might be kicking in.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1010. beell
Quoting 1001. nrtiwlnvragn:


Worked for me, anyone else having an issue?

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?project Name=BASIN


Worked fine but the "Riders on the Storm" music would not play during the 27 km slp loop. I may need to flush my cache.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 996. indianrivguy:


Dexter is packing his doggie bags...


lol...supposed to be a video...don't know how to convert iphone vids to gif's.
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
1006. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33342
Quoting 1004. Hurricanes305:


Here is a Link to the NHC site that shows the surface analysis. Scroll down to Graphic Products

Click where it says: Tropical Surface Analysis &
NWS Unified Surface Analysis

there you can see a preview of it. Hope this help so you can see it for yourself :)



Thanks
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 985. mitchelace5:


Where's the map bro?


Here is a Link to the NHC site that shows the surface analysis. Scroll down to Graphic Products there is plenty of products you have access to

there you can see a preview of it. Hope this help so you can see it for yourself :)

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1003. ncstorm
Quoting 1001. nrtiwlnvragn:


Worked for me, anyone else having an issue?

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?project Name=BASIN


worked for me..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13448
Quoting 1001. nrtiwlnvragn:


Worked for me, anyone else having an issue?

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?project Name=BASIN


Not for me, I'm afraid
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 986. whitewabit:


couldn't get the link to open for me ..


Worked for me, anyone else having an issue?

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?project Name=BASIN
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any tropical storms in the GOM need to go to TX...we don't need anymore rain here in AL, or FL...
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Quoting 985. mitchelace5:


Where's the map bro?

on NHC website
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Quoting 990. sar2401:

Yes, but do and have, for 0% two days. Like I said, I don't think the NHC wants put up a circle until there's something inside it.
The only reason they give it a percentage is for the sake of the 48 hour forecast, not because the area has a chance to develop within that time frame. It's already been done in the EPAC.

In 93E's case, they even had a medium chance of development within the 5 day range but since the feature didn't exist yet, nor did it post a threat to develop within the 48 hours, they didn't label it within the 48 hour forecast. Once it's a defined feature, with a potential to develop within 48 hours, they'll circle it.

Avila said that they'll develop a 5 day graphic at some point in the future should they continue to forecast 5 days out in the TWO.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33342
Quoting 978. GeoffreyWPB:
McKenzie enjoying a hot summer day...Are you watching Dexter?



Dexter is packing his doggie bags...
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Quoting whitewabit:


couldn't get the link to open for me ..

I got it to open but it took a year of Sundays. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754


nice little shower in South Sound now!
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Quoting 969. nrtiwlnvragn:





Looks like Hawaii might get another unwanted visitor as well.
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Quoting LargoFl:
SFL might be on to something....................

Not unless that 1016 line starts to retreat pretty fast....
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They don't utilize a graph for the 5 day forecast.

Yes, but do and have, for 0% two days. Like I said, I don't think the NHC wants put up a circle until there's something inside it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




If we get it in the Gulf, that swirl in the BOC is where it will come from.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9754
Quoting 981. sar2401:


Edit: Just noticed no yellow circle though. I guess even the NHC isn't sure where this thing is going to form.
They don't utilize a graph for the 5 day forecast.
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SFL might be on to something....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33342
986. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 976. nrtiwlnvragn:


HRD has an experimental Basin Scale product that is part of the HFIP.


couldn't get the link to open for me ..
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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