An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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2490. mitchelace5
10:39 PM GMT on August 11, 2013
Hey guys. Sorry for using foul language earlier today. Could you guys forgive me? It won't happen again, promise.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
2489. ncstorm
1:15 PM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14599
2488. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2487. Neapolitan
11:51 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2432. sar2401:

It's probably more like hundreds of thousands. Once you leave Luzon, you pretty much enter the Twilight Zone when it comes to information or any government assistance. Even those who know what's coming have very little choice about what to do, since most transport is by water, and that either has or will shortly be shut down. It's not uncommon in situations like this to have ferries so overloaded they capsize and kill hundreds.

The Philippines is hard to describe to people who haven't been there. Parts of Metro Manila look like Chicago on a really humid day. Go south to places like Panay and Mindanao and the central Philippine government exists in name only. It's a country of 100 million on thousands of islands, and the Philippine Air Force only has about 45 operable helicopters at any one time. It has a grand total of three C-130 heavy lift transports, the only aircraft capable of carrying relief supplies in large quantities. The Philippine Navy is in even worse shape, with it's newest major vessel being a 50 year old ex- US Coast Guard cutter. Most of the other ships that could be used for rescue and relief are ex-US Navy vessels dating back to to WWII, and they almost never leave anchorage and, when they do, they break down or sink. The typhoon will be bad, but the aftermath will be much worse.
Fortunately--or as fortunate as can be given the circumstances--Utor looks to be headed for landfall in the least densely populated coastal region in the entire nation of the Philippines. The Aurora province in the northeastern part of the Central Luzon region, and both the Qurino and Nueva Vizcaya provinces in the southern part of the Cagayan Valley region, have densities of fewer than 100 inhabitants per square kilometer. (Compare that to densities of 500-1500 km2 farther south in the provinces surrounding Manila.)

Now, while the Philippines news dissemination infrastructure isn't anywhere close to US standards, it's important to remember that the people there aren't a bunch of third-world primitives cut off from what's going on. For instance, the internet, cable/satellite television, and radio are widely available and widely used.

It's perhaps even more important to remember that the Philippines are among the most typhoon-struck nations on the planet, seeing an average of six to nine landfalling storms each year. It's also seen more super-typhoons--Cat 4 or 5--than any other place on the planet.

Saying all that to say this: while Utor poses a serious threat, and while there will, sadly, probably be many deaths and much destruction, the people know the storm is coming, they know how bad it is, and they know what such things bring. Thus it's not very likely at all to be the widespread apocalyptic tragedy some are fearing.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
2486. Civicane49
11:43 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2485. GeoffreyWPB
11:37 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Good Sunday morning to all...Atlantic Satellite...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
2484. Tropicsweatherpr
11:37 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Nothing for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14057
2483. VR46L
11:36 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
I found this , this morning Maybe it might be of use to those tracking UTOR

DOST Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
2482. GatorWX
11:35 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Morning everyone. Going to be a great summer! Going to Spain with a beautiful girl, staying in a sweet hotel, flight's booked. Feeling good!

Quoting 2477. AussieStorm:


A look into the eye of Typhoon Utor


Bigger picture


Wow, been so quiet in the Atlantic, I haven't been paying much attention. That's an impressive, tight storm!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2688
2481. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:31 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7571
2480. AussieStorm
11:17 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

Utor has just jogged west in the last 2 images of this loop.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
2479. Civicane49
11:09 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
-80C cloud tops wrapping around the center.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2478. islander101010
11:08 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
utor looks like a direct hit hopefully quickly move on through
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4358
2477. AussieStorm
11:03 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Direct hit for the Philippines, right as it reaches peak intensity:





A look into the eye of Typhoon Utor


Bigger picture
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
2476. Tropicsweatherpr
11:00 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Good morning to all. Without any doubt Utor is the cyclone of the year but I am worried about what will occur in Luzon.

In other theme,will there be a bonifide CV season in 2013?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14057
2475. allancalderini
10:59 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2466. Civicane49:
Utor continues to look very beautiful, but poses a very serious threat to the Philippines. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate no signs of eyewall replacement cycle yet, so additional strengthening is likely before making landfall in just less than 12 hours. We'll see if this becomes the first Category 5 cyclone of the year.

Good morning everyone.For me is one already.
Quoting 2473. MAweatherboy1:
Direct hit for the Philippines, right as it reaches peak intensity:



The Philippines always have bad luck.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4054
2474. Civicane49
10:58 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Raw T-numbers remain above 7.0

2013AUG11 100100 6.2 924.5 +2.7 119.8 6.2 6.3 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 2.87 -79.66 EYE 13 IR 51.9 15.36 -123.81 COMBO MTSAT2 30.3
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2473. MAweatherboy1
10:34 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Direct hit for the Philippines, right as it reaches peak intensity:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7635
2472. stoormfury
10:34 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
morning
will be back with my analysis and thoughts of EATL tropical wave
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2626
2471. MAweatherboy1
10:24 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Good morning. We are probably tracking the storm of the year right now.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2013 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 15:23:48 N Lon : 123:50:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.1mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -84.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 132km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.3 degrees

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7635
2470. Civicane49
10:14 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
SAB takes Utor at 6.5/127 kts.

11/0832 UTC 15.4N 124.0E T6.5/6.5 UTOR -- West Pacific
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2469. Civicane49
10:12 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.1mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 7.4
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2468. Civicane49
9:59 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Here is the latest eTRaP 24 hour rainfall forecast for Utor:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2467. LargoFl
9:33 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
finally 2 days to dry out here in florida........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2466. Civicane49
9:30 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Utor continues to look very beautiful, but poses a very serious threat to the Philippines. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate no signs of eyewall replacement cycle yet, so additional strengthening is likely before making landfall in just less than 12 hours. We'll see if this becomes the first Category 5 cyclone of the year.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2465. LargoFl
9:30 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Coffee is Perked,Have a Great day..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2464. Civicane49
9:16 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2463. Civicane49
9:11 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2462. Civicane49
9:10 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2461. Civicane49
8:56 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2460. Civicane49
8:55 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A 2 DEGREE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SINCE THEN. THERE
WAS A BURST OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE CLOUDS BETWEEN 830
AND 930 PM HST. WITH HENRIETTE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF LIFE...I
HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 35 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF
THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.

HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED MOVING ALONG VERY STEADILY TOWARD 265
DEGREES AT 18 KT. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
NORTH OF HENRIETTE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
NEARLY UNCHANGED.

DESPITE THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER HENRIETTE I HAVE
KEPT A FORECAST OF GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
HENRIETTE IS NOT TOO HOSTILE...BUT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM
AND MORE VULNERABLE THAN A LARGER STORM WOULD BE. OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS THE STORM HAS MOVED BY ABOUT 230 NM SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 51004
WITH VERY LITTLE EFFECT ON CONDITIONS AT THE BUOY LOCATION. THE
PRESSURE AT THE BUOY IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
I STILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
KEEP HENRIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TO BE DISSIPATED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 13.6N 153.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 13.3N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 13.0N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 12.8N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 12.8N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2459. Civicane49
8:55 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...WELL
SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 153.9W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2458. Civicane49
8:41 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2457. VR46L
8:28 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2455. Civicane49:
This has to be the best tropical cyclone of the year so far.



Yes But looks very Deadly !



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
2456. Camille33
8:27 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2455. Civicane49:
This has to be the best tropical cyclone of the year so far.



Hope the Philippines are prepared for this monster storm.

did you check my new video!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
2455. Civicane49
8:23 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
This has to be the best tropical cyclone of the year so far.



Hope the Philippines are prepared for this monster storm.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2454. Camille33
8:04 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2453. Camille33:
img src=""> wow!! big storm here

good video!!
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2453. Camille33
8:02 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
img src=""> wow!! big storm here
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2452. KoritheMan
8:02 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Finally finished my blog on Utor. Have a look.
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2451. VR46L
7:55 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
BTW good morning folks!
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2450. VR46L
7:54 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2447. bigwes6844:


That big wave might be the one that influences the season ... not development but the size of it could lift the ITCZ north and enhance development of the subsequent waves ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
2449. Camille33
7:51 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2443. TomTaylor:
Don't care what the JTWC says, this is the strongest TC of the year so far. Likely a borderline category 5 storm (thinking 150-155 MPH winds). Raw T numbers suggest 170-175 MPH storm, which means the storm has the actual appearance of a 170-175 MPH storm. It takes some time for winds to catch up, however.




Excellent find.

Look like andrew!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
2448. JLPR2
7:48 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2446. MiamiHurricanes09:
115kts is category 4. ;) But I agree, it's definitely pushing category 5 intensity from what I can see.

If this were in the Atlantic, no doubt that it would be a category 5 at this point.


Ah! Yes, thought it was in mph, being almost 4am does that. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
2447. bigwes6844
7:45 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2525
2446. MiamiHurricanes09
7:45 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2444. JLPR2:


That cant be a cat 3, that has to be a cat 4 pushing at 5 beast.

A beast yes, still, it's beautiful!
115kts is category 4. ;) But I agree, it's definitely pushing category 5 intensity from what I can see.

If this were in the Atlantic, no doubt that it would be a category 5 at this point.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2445. MiamiHurricanes09
7:43 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Out for the night.

Leave you with the latest ADT estimate. Raw T-number pushing for a 155kt intensity. Meanwhile, the eye continues to warm.

2013AUG11 070000 5.6 953.3 104.6 5.6 6.1 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 5.66 -79.76 EYE 14 IR N/A 15.20 -124.38 COMBO MTSAT2 29.7
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2444. JLPR2
7:43 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2435. MiamiHurricanes09:
Best 115kt cyclone I've ever seen.



That cant be a cat 3, that has to be a cat 4 pushing at 5 beast.

A beast yes, still, it's beautiful!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
2443. TomTaylor
7:42 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Don't care what the JTWC says, this is the strongest TC of the year so far. Likely a borderline category 5 storm (thinking 150-155 MPH winds). Raw T numbers suggest 170-175 MPH storm, which means the storm has the actual appearance of a 170-175 MPH storm. It takes some time for winds to catch up, however.




Quoting 2439. MiamiHurricanes09:
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/
Excellent find.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
2442. Thrawst
7:39 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Typhoon Utor is pushing for Category 5 status.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1802
2441. Tribucanes
7:34 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Thanks for the situation background there Sar. Doesn't sound good at all. I'm assuming you meant hundreds or thousands not hundreds of thousands for potential fatalities of Utor. Or were you just referencing those who have no idea Utor is coming? Knew it was bad, but I didn't realize the Philippines ability to respond was so horribly lacking.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
2440. KoritheMan
7:29 AM GMT on August 11, 2013
Quoting 2439. MiamiHurricanes09:
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/


I have no idea why I never thought to look there, lol.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 557 Comments: 19977

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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