An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COLLAPSED DURING THE DAY...AND
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK...SATELLITE SIGNATURES SHOW OVERALL WEAKENING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR HENRIETTE HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 35 KT...WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OF THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR HENRIETTE REMAINS AT 265/18...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ALONG RECENT FORECAST TRACKS. HENRIETTE IS BEING DRIVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
KEEPING HENRIETTE ON A SIMILAR BEARING. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE LAST FEW PACKAGES.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT ITS
CORE CAN BE DISRUPTED BY RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES IN THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. HENRIETTE WILL PASS OVER WATERS WITH SST
OF ABOUT 27 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH INCREASING SST AND
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FARTHER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME...IT
WILL PROBABLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF HENRIETTE. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN ACCELERATED WITH
THIS PACKAGE...DROPPING HENRIETTE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT
AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND
ICVN GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.8N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.5N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.0N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 12.8N 162.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 12.7N 165.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As My 7 year old daughter and I were walking in to a store today we watched in amazement as a vortex of dried leaves of various sizes spun up to about 10-12 feet high off the ground and almost as wide. It lifted off and held itself in place for at least 5 seconds almost as if in slow motion. I thought it was cool but boy was she excited.... she couldn't get information fast enough from me, asking question after question for the next 5 minutes. We talked about tornadoes, hurricanes, waterspouts etc.
It hit me then....Future weather nut!!! LOL

Don't worry I'll wait at least 2 more years before we get her a screen name.
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2138. JLPR2
Quoting 2133. hurricanes2018:
I see a nice spin to that tropical wave


Yes, it emerged with it, here is an older pass:



I wonder why the surface map doesn't have a low even though it is clear we do have one...
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 151.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.


Looking like a good start
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Norway makes great marmalade and Beer.

Especially Mack-O, the most northern Brewery in da World.

Laplander's are very cool and excellent traders as well.

Don't forget the Lutkefische.. whatever that is. In Texas, it seems to be a small jar of fish pieces floating like a lab specimen in some sort of brine, and is highly prized, though very expensive, so there must be some Swedes or Norwegians lurking in our supermarkets.

I don't know if they put it on their bagels, or mix it in their taters, or feed it to the cats, I just dunno.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2800
Quoting 2128. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Models still saying possible something in NW Caribbean in a week or so?

Yeah, models are still showing some sort of development in the GOM in 5-7 days. There should be a favorable environment with shear being light and SST's being very warm. It just depends on where the energy goes. If it interacts with land more it won't become much, and if it goes farther north it would have more time over water. I'd say there's a pretty decent chance of this developing.
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Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.
I see a nice spin to that tropical wave
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Quoting 2111. Patrap:


Not really, we had one in Jan 2001.

The Budget and Deficit


I was actually being a little (okay, a lot) sarcastic. I know it's possible to not have national debt, but w/ the way things are here, it's highly improbable...

But, when was the last time we did not have national debt? (Debt, not annual deficit/surplus). I think it was the 1800s...it doesn't seem to be in our genetic makeup to be fiscally responsible as a country. So kudos to Norway.

(And you linked to one of my favorite sites, BTW)
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2131. JLPR2
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.
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Quoting 2127. mitthbevnuruodo:


It has much to do with North Sea oil! LOL BUT, and a big but for many Americans, they are quite socialist, mixed with a dash of capitolism. They seem to have the right mix. But North Sea oil is a BIG help. But the wealth seems to be spread round more than just a handful at the top. For the benefit of the country, more than the benefit of the few. I can't read Norweigian, so I may be off-base with hear-say though since can't read their own news


Quit with factual information.......some folks get upset with factual information. :)
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Quoting 2119. BaltimoreBrian:
Norway's a big oil exporter LAbonbon. That's how they get their money.


and what?
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Models still saying possible something in NW Caribbean in a week or so?
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Quoting 2116. LAbonbon:


Yowza. Hmmm...me thinks we should be taking some tips from them.

And they're not a member of the EU-I wonder, if this has anything to do with their fiscal common sense.


It has much to do with North Sea oil! LOL BUT, and a big but for many Americans, they are quite socialist, mixed with a dash of capitolism. They seem to have the right mix. But North Sea oil is a BIG help. But the wealth seems to be spread round more than just a handful at the top. For the benefit of the country, more than the benefit of the few. I can't read Norweigian, so I may be off-base with hear-say though since can't read their own news
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2126. 2ifbyC
Quoting 2102. wxchaser97:

I edited my comment with the conversion, don't have to call me names.


He didn't call you names. He just used a couple of totally appropriate adjectives!
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Quoting 2107. BaltimoreBrian:


Yup. Their budget surplus this year is 13.1% of GDP. Their total national surplus is $712.1 billion dollars at the latest assessment, or about $140,000 per person.


Them dang socialist countrys.......lol. Here in California we RAISE taxes and CUT the budget to balance the budget. We better talk to the Norwegians about how they handle their retirement plan for state workers....thats gonna be a toughie for California.....a big cloud hanging over a lot of states.

U see Typhoon Utor looking quite impressive and the Atlantic pretty quiet.
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Quoting 2103. yoboi:



I was asking about 2013 ice...the yr is 2013????? why would I ask about 2013 ice in 2012?????? why should I agree with cherry picked information?????? while you were seeking the truth did you somehow discover ALL the science is settled????? If so please guide me to the link that shows ALL science is settled.....you will save me time researching things........


You cherry pick information out of what is given you to disagree with and ignore the rest, your not given cherry picked information. You've been given, time and time again detailed, peer reviewed information that is agreed on by 97% of climate scientists. The science that man driven GW/climate change is happening is a settled subject in the scientific community. What isn't settled are the unknowns of just how bad it's going to get. The cumulative effect is the unknown. And your overall demeanor in your response really makes my point better than I ever could.
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Quoting 2079. Grothar:


My cell phone and cable are on a daily plan.
I don't buy green bananas.
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Quoting 2119. BaltimoreBrian:
Norway's a big oil exporter LAbonbon. That's how they get their money.


Thank for that. You just saved me some time on Google and Wiki :)
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2121. JLPR2
The Dry air is getting squished between the large moisture envelope of the new TW in the CV islands vicinity and the ULL around the E Caribbean.



As it continues to get pushed to the west the ULL should generate enough moisture to continue eating it.
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2120. Patrap
Norway makes great marmalade and Beer.

Especially Mack-O, the most northern Brewery in da World.

Laplander's are very cool and excellent traders as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Norway's a big oil exporter LAbonbon. That's how they get their money.
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Norway does issue bonds so they have an internal debt market. That debt is about 30% of GDP. But they have two national sovereign wealth accounts totaling 140% of GDP so they have a net national surplus of 110% of GDP.
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Quoting 2114. JLPR2:
It's interesting to see that once the negative MJO moved out of the Atlantic the E Pacific disturbances started to struggle.

Once they struggle there its game on in the Atlantic.
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Quoting 2107. BaltimoreBrian:


Yup. Their budget surplus this year is 13.1% of GDP. Their total national surplus is $712.1 billion dollars at the latest assessment, or about $140,000 per person.


Yowza. Hmmm...me thinks we should be taking some tips from them.

And they're not a member of the EU-I wonder, if this has anything to do with their fiscal common sense.
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Quoting 1909. Grothar:


I have never mentioned a bust since I have been on this blog.


I love you man! Can I have a man hug? Please?
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2114. JLPR2
It's interesting to see that once the negative MJO moved out of the Atlantic the E Pacific disturbances started to struggle.

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2113. Grothar
Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!


We are happy for you. We hope you get more.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
Caribbean SST anomalies are skyrocketing, with the lessening of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

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2111. Patrap
Quoting 2104. LAbonbon:



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??


Not really, we had one in Jan 2001.

The Budget and Deficit
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
2110. Grothar
Quoting 2104. LAbonbon:



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??


One of the highest standards of living in the world. Also, they give away more in humanitarian aid per capita than almost any country in the world.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2800
Quoting 2106. Patrap:
even the ULLs are starting to look good.
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Quoting 2104. LAbonbon:



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??


Yup. Their budget surplus this year is 13.1% of GDP. Their total national surplus is $712.1 billion dollars at the latest assessment, or about $140,000 per person.
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2106. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting 2081. Grothar:
Utor is one mean looking storm.



Utor Pendragon!
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Quoting 2100. BaltimoreBrian:


I wouldn't mind it either. Norway is an awesome country. No national debt either!



Whaaat? No national debt?? Is such a thing possible??
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2103. yoboi
Quoting 2072. Tribucanes:


yoboi, in no way was I speaking down to you, just stating facts of how you've been asking the same questions for over a year and how you've been given detailed answers over and over and yet you come back with the same questions. I was pointing out how you get answers to your questions and then respond with only how you disagree with some cherry picked piece of information you've been given and never wanting to discuss the relevance of what you've been given. If you could explain to me how you haven't been able to connect the dots with all the great information provided to you over the last year to the extent you keep asking the same questions that have been answered time and time again at length, then I might understand your difficulties. I'm no expert, I just love to know the truth, and I arrive at that by detailed research, which is out there for anyone to seek. In fact Dr. Masters draws out a map on this very subject, right here at WU, which is impossible to not follow, unless one is choosing on ideological reasons not too.



I was asking about 2013 ice...the yr is 2013????? why would I ask about 2013 ice in 2012?????? why should I agree with cherry picked information?????? while you were seeking the truth did you somehow discover ALL the science is settled????? If so please guide me to the link that shows ALL science is settled.....you will save me time researching things........
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Quoting 2098. SuperStorm093:
Thank you, never new I could do that..........I was just trying to get a quick answer, but I guess you rather be cocky, and ignorant.

I edited my comment with the conversion, don't have to call me names.
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2101. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
Quoting 2095. mitthbevnuruodo:


And one of the strongest countries in Europe at the mo, and has been really in many ways. I recently told my daughter, between stability, weather, her love of cold and snow and photography opportunity (fjord's, snow, nothern lights)...we probably wouldn't do too bad to learn the language and live there!


I wouldn't mind it either. Norway is an awesome country. No national debt either!
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Quoting Grothar:


Dun dun dun!
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Quoting 2088. wxchaser97:

There is this thing called Google where you can search for a tool to convert knots to MPH.
Thank you, never new I could do that..........I was just trying to get a quick answer, but I guess you rather be cocky, and ignorant.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
2097. JLPR2
Quoting 2094. Tropicsweatherpr:


You mean't 18E right?


Ah yes! Sorry, got my Es mixed with my Ws.

XD
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2096. JLPR2
According to this the influence of the negative signal of the MJO is gone and is being replaced by upward motion.



Thought it would happen later, also this is dated August 9th, it updates with a delay of one day.
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Quoting 2077. BaltimoreBrian:


Norway became re-independent surprisingly late in 1905.


And one of the strongest countries in Europe at the mo, and has been really in many ways. I recently told my daughter, between stability, weather, her love of cold and snow and photography opportunity (fjord's, snow, nothern lights)...we probably wouldn't do too bad to learn the language and live there!
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Quoting 2084. JLPR2:
The convection of the TW around the CV area is confined to one band on the SE side of the low, meanwhile that TW around -18W is looking good. Really want to see how that one does when it hits water.



You mean't 18E right?
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Quoting 2087. SuperStorm093:
what are the winds in MPH on UTOR?


I think it's at, or will be shortly, 126 mph, w/ gusts to 155.
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Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2800
2091. JLPR2
Quoting 2087. SuperStorm093:
what are the winds in MPH on UTOR?


115mph, the equivalent of a cat 3
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2090. Grothar
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.