An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.
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[Gro] I have over 500 recipes for herring. And it is lutefisk.

What I would like explained is 'salt cod'. Apparently our Seattle, Minnesota, Michigan brothers and sisters come across a Cod, on a hook or scanned at the self-checkout, take it home, inundate it with rock salt, put it in a jar, dry it for a few years.... and then what?
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Quoting 2179. Grothar:


None of the Scandinavian countries are Socialist. The systems in all the countries including Finland are often referred to as the Nordic model.

>shoulder nudge<


My apologies sir....I stand corrected :)
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Quoting 2181. LAbonbon:
Re: redwagon's unusual experience

So far...

lightning (Grothar)
F-34 Lightning II (wunderkidcayman)
meteor (Tornado6042008X)
supersonic drone (LAbonbon)
radioactive light/alien takeover of satellites (TropicalAnalystwx13)
dirigible (BaltimoreBrian)

Hmmm...I think Tornado may be onto something..(Sorry, Gro, I've got to believe he'd be able to tell)

And Tropical - you win for best imagination

In any case, I'm rather intrigued by this. I'll be checking the news tomorrow to see if something shows up for the Austin area. (But in all likelihood Brian will beat me to it.)

They're all wrong. It is a streetlight.
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Im sensing some tensions on the blog tonight?
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Quoting 2174. Grothar:


How about we just bump shoulders and nod at each other.


:)
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2183. Grothar
Quoting 2175. Stormchaser121:

Where do you think the NW Carib storm would go? The models have it into MX and TX and FL...


At this time mostly north if it passes the Yucatan.
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Quoting 2178. TheDevilsAdvocate:


I thought you were going to stay away from talk about climate change? At least you now seem to realize that the consequences of our unbridled use of fossil fuels are going to be born by the generations that follow.

Kudos to you.



Devil, I made no such remark. I will not be baited and I will not comment on AGW nor partisan politics. Both parties, many entities, many people including us are to blame for the desperate financial situation this country faces, and it has to do with many, many things of which dependency on foreign oil is but one small piece of the pie.

Now, that's it, all I'm going to say on the subject. Back to the tropics! :)
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Re: redwagon's unusual experience

So far...

lightning (Grothar)
F-34 Lightning II (wunderkidcayman)
meteor (Tornado6042008X)
supersonic drone (LAbonbon)
radioactive light/alien takeover of satellites (TropicalAnalystwx13)
dirigible (BaltimoreBrian)

Hmmm...I think Tornado may be onto something..(Sorry, Gro, I've got to believe he'd be able to tell)

And Tropical - you win for best imagination

In any case, I'm rather intrigued by this. I'll be checking the news tomorrow to see if something shows up for the Austin area. (But in all likelihood Brian will beat me to it.)
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notting!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13872
2179. Grothar
Quoting 2125. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Them dang socialist countrys.......lol. Here in California we RAISE taxes and CUT the budget to balance the budget. We better talk to the Norwegians about how they handle their retirement plan for state workers....thats gonna be a toughie for California.....a big cloud hanging over a lot of states.

U see Typhoon Utor looking quite impressive and the Atlantic pretty quiet.


None of the Scandinavian countries are Socialist. The systems in all the countries including Finland are often referred to as the Nordic model.

>shoulder nudge<
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Radioactive light from one of the satellites out in space being taken over by aliens. Don't get close.

--------------

Sound advice, and I'm takin' it.
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Quoting 2132. LAbonbon:


...when was the last time we did not have national debt? (Debt, not annual deficit/surplus).



I have vowed to stay away from any AGW and political discussions, and to stay tightly focused on tropical weather. However, I am going to make this one exception as it has little to do with partisanship, and because I happen to have considerable knowledge on the subject.

The only time, the single time, the US has never had any public debt (almost zero but not quite) was during Andrew Jackson's administration who was an opponent of a national central bank. Since that time, every single administration of any party has only added to the national debt.

The Clinton Surplus is a myth, never happened, and here's why: Social Security revenues were much higher as a result of the dotcom bubble. Social Security surpluses are required by law to be converted into US Governmental Securities which are sold and immediately become intergovernmental holdings. The truth is, the Clinton tenure like every other president, increased the national debt. The government just covered its deficits by borrowing money from Social Security rather than the public.


The Clinton Surplus Myth


Anyone that ever thinks government, any administration, spends less is a fool, as we've witnessed exponential spending increases in each subsequent administration no matter which party is in power. The Obama tenure of spending has far exceeded that of his predecessor Bush, and no doubt, even if the next POTUS is a Republican, that administration's spending will likely dwarf that of Obama.

We have an animal that tirelessly demands to be fed more and more and more and more. And, it makes little difference which party is in power and who is in charge at the White House. We've been headed into the abyss for a very long time, except now we're moving there exponentially quicker. In 2011 the CBO and WHBM forecast the national debt to be a bit more than $20T ten years forward. Both will miss that target, because that figure will come much more quickly as we're already approaching $17T now, and it's only 2013. Lately, annual deficit spending has been at least $1T, meaning we're likely to pass the $20T threshold in 2016.

We live in scary times, but very sadly it's our children and on who will be the ones that ultimately have to shoulder the burden and pending collapse.
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Quoting 2173. Grothar:


I have over 500 recipes for herring. And it is lutefisk.

Where do you think the NW Carib storm would go? The models have it into MX and TX and FL...
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2174. Grothar
Quoting 2141. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thank you sir! Still want that man hug Gro


How about we just bump shoulders and nod at each other.
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2173. Grothar
Quoting 2135. redwagon:
Norway makes great marmalade and Beer.

Especially Mack-O, the most northern Brewery in da World.

Laplander's are very cool and excellent traders as well.

Don't forget the Lutkefische.. whatever that is. In Texas, it seems to be a small jar of fish pieces floating like a lab specimen in some sort of brine, and is highly prized, though very expensive, so there must be some Swedes or Norwegians lurking in our supermarkets.

I don't know if they put it on their bagels, or mix it in their taters, or feed it to the cats, I just dunno.


I have over 500 recipes for herring. And it is lutefisk.
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Quoting 2160. JLPR2:


I do expect it at 06z, but I doubt we get an invest, the wave does have a great moisture field and spin but the circulation is in fact so strong that it is pulling dry air into it. Considering the amount of moisture to the East and South I don't expect it to be choked by the dry air but it should keep it in check.



**Also: The fact that it is moving WSW helps.

true the new surface map does show almost a closed Isobar maybe we may find it closed with a Low by 06Z
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
2170. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2155. Tribucanes:


LOL, I've watched you have a closed mind on this for over a year. I've seen you repeat the same questions and give the same pat denials to the responses dozens of times. You come here to spat off sarcastic responses to the truth your given. I've been silent on this constant repeat pattern of yours for a very long time. Just like this back and forth between us is getting old for everyone else here, your never coming to a conclusion based on research and facts is old and worn out. You won't seek, you refuse to believe based on conclusive science, and I don't believe you've ever given the hard science a real study. You have an agenda, you don't need us to find the facts, they're everywhere. As I can imagine the blog's seen enough of this back and forth, I won't comment on this again. Just after a year of this from you, I felt it needed to be said.


Take this conversation to your own blog !
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2169. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2164. yoboi:



Glad you got your daily attack in.....enough of the drama.... please go troll someone else......not really in the mood for your tantrums tonight......


take this conversation to your own blogs !
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2168. wetrain
Nevada here from Hanover. We had lots of rain and thunderstorms today in Hanover and Jamaica by extension. It seems as if we could have an increase in rainfall For Jamaica starting late Monday going into Wednesday as a trough of low pressure could affect us.
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Quoting 2106. Patrap:

If only it would go north
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Quoting 2147. LAbonbon:


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...
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Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!

Radioactive light from one of the satellites out in space being taken over by aliens. Don't get close.
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2164. yoboi
Quoting 2155. Tribucanes:


LOL, I've watched you have a closed mind on this for over a year. I've seen you repeat the same questions and give the same pat denials to the responses dozens of times. You come here to spat off sarcastic responses to the truth your given. I've been silent on this constant repeat pattern of yours for a very long time. Just like this back and forth between us is getting old for everyone else here, your never coming to a conclusion based on research and facts is old and worn out. You won't seek, you refuse to believe based on conclusive science, and I don't believe you've ever given the hard science a real study. You have an agenda, you don't need us to find the facts, they're everywhere. As I can imagine the blog's seen enough of this back and forth, I won't comment on this again. Just after a year of this from you, I felt it needed to be said.



Glad you got your daily attack in.....enough of the drama.... please go troll someone else......not really in the mood for your tantrums tonight......
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2163. Gearsts
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2162. flsky
No interesting weather at all here in ECFL today. Blue skies, hot(!), but with a bit of a breeze. Not supposed to have any rain for the next week, at least. It's much more bearable here in August when there's a cooling afternoon shower.
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Quoting 2147. LAbonbon:


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...

Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!
That was more than likely a small meteor. But we shall see. One flew over Russia earlier this year. It created a very bright light and a huge sonic boom as it went sub-sonic. The boom so loud that it broke several windows causing a lot of injuries due to the flying glass.........But we shall see. Very glad that you are okay. 
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2160. JLPR2
Quoting 2150. wunderkidcayman:

Should be on there soon and maybe NHC may put it up on the TWO and maybe tagged new Invest


I do expect it at 06z, but I doubt we get an invest, the wave does have a great moisture field and spin but the circulation is in fact so strong that it is pulling dry air into it. Considering the amount of moisture to the East and South I don't expect it to be choked by the dry air but it should keep it in check.



**Also: The fact that it is moving WSW helps.
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2159. flsky
Quoting 2139. Abacosurf:
As My 7 year old daughter and I were walking in to a store today we watched in amazement as a vortex of dried leaves of various sizes spun up to about 10-12 feet high off the ground and almost as wide. It lifted off and held itself in place for at least 5 seconds almost as if in slow motion. I thought it was cool but boy was she excited.... she couldn't get information fast enough from me, asking question after question for the next 5 minutes. We talked about tornadoes, hurricanes, waterspouts etc.
It hit me then....Future weather nut!!! LOL

Don't worry I'll wait at least 2 more years before we get her a screen name.


Yay! That's what we do need in this field -- more female meteorologists! Hope she keeps interested in a fascinating area of study!
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Oh drones, we have them coming out of our ears. They deliver the mail around here.

Somebody WUmailed me it might be lightning and thunder, but skeptic that I am, I'll just attribute it to some nighttime weird arcing sunspots.

It's raining..in Austin... or maybe about to.
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Quoting 2152. seer2012:


The dry air is going to wipe it out and may have started already.

I don't think so
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
Quoting 2151. whitewabit:


its call sign is Lightning ..


Aw, come on, where's the fun in that? He's asking for help from fellow Texans. Has it really been that long since he's encountered thunder & lightning :P
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Quoting 2143. yoboi:



My overall demeanor was just great until you started talking down to me and bashing me for no reason......for the past few weeks I have been researching things with an open mind......give yourself a pat on the back for making me now having a closed mind about the subject......


LOL, I've watched you have a closed mind on this for over a year. I've seen you repeat the same questions and give the same pat denials to the responses dozens of times. You come here to spat off sarcastic responses to the truth your given. I've been silent on this constant repeat pattern of yours for a very long time. Just like this back and forth between us is getting old for everyone else here, your never coming to a conclusion based on research and facts is old and worn out. You won't seek, you refuse to believe based on conclusive science, and I don't believe you've ever given the hard science a real study. You have an agenda, you don't need us to find the facts, they're everywhere. As I can imagine the blog's seen enough of this back and forth, I won't comment on this again. Just after a year of this from you, I felt it needed to be said.
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Quoting 2151. whitewabit:


its call sign is Lightning ..

F-35 Lightning II
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
Hmmmmmm.

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Quoting 2150. wunderkidcayman:

Should be on there soon and maybe NHC may put it up on the TWO and maybe tagged new Invest


The dry air is going to wipe it out and may have started already.
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2151. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2147. LAbonbon:


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...


its call sign is Lightning ..
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Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.
Quoting 2138. JLPR2:


Yes, it emerged with it, here is an older pass:



I wonder why the surface map doesn't have a low even though it is clear we do have one...

Should be on there soon and maybe NHC may put it up on the TWO and maybe tagged new Invest
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
And #4 Most severe

===

Public Warning Signals - 4
Meteorological Condition
- A very intense typhoon will affect the locality.
- Very strong winds of more than 185 kph may be expected in at least 12 hours.

Impact of the Winds
- Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
- Many large trees may be uprooted.
- Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
- Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be
severely damaged.
- Electrical power distribution and communication services (including Internet)
may be severely disrupted.
- In the overall, damage to affected communities can be very heavy.

Precautionary Measures
- The situation is potentially very destructive to the community.
- All travels and outdoor activities should be canceled.
- Evacuation to much safer shelters should have been completed since it may
be too late under this situation.
- With PSWS No. 4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the "eye" of
the typhoon. As the "eye" of the typhoon approaches, the weather will
continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally
from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds
(a lull) will be experienced. This means that the "eye" of the typhoon is over the
locality. This improved weather may last for one(1) to two(2) hours - depending
on the diameter of the "eye" and the speed of movement. As the "eye" moves
out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly
commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south.
- The Disaster Coordinating Councils concerned and other disaster response
organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness
to immediately response to possible calamity
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Quoting 2109. redwagon:
It just happened again! Super bright light, illuminating my lawn, then this big BOOM!

This is more than alarming and if any Texans can explain it, I'd be mighty obliged!


Any news? From your description, my first thought was a supersonic drone, but I don't know if they have those...
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From the Phillipines #3 Typhoon Warnings, They have 1-4 depending on strength of storm.


Public Warning Signals - 3
Meteorological Conditions
- A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
- Winds greater than 100 kph up to 185 kph may be expected in at least
18 hours.

Impact of the Winds
- Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
- Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be
uprooted.
- Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
- Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there
may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
- There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication
services (including the Internet).
- In general, moderate to heavy damage may be expected, practically in the
agricultural and industrial sectors.

Precautionary Measures
- The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened / affected.
- The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
- Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
- People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas
and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
- Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden
occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong
winds coming generally from the north.
- When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community, do not venture away from the
safe shelter because after one(1) to two(2) hours - the worst weather will resume
with the very strong winds coming from the south.
- Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety
of strong buildings and evacuation centers.
- Disaster preparedness and response agencies / organizations are in action with
appropriate response to actual emergency.
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Quoting 2131. JLPR2:
Fresh OSCAT of the wave:



Considering this a surface low should be added to the surface map, we'll probably see one on the 06z update.


Not bad looking.
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2144. JLPR2
Would hate to be on the Philippines right now, the amount of -80c cloud tops is frightening, that's going to flood everything on its path.

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2143. yoboi
Quoting 2124. Tribucanes:


You cherry pick information out of what is given you to disagree with and ignore the rest, your not given cherry picked information. You've been given, time and time again detailed, peer reviewed information that is agreed on by 97% of climate scientists. The science that man driven GW/climate change is happening is a settled subject in the scientific community. What isn't settled is the unknowns of just how bad it's going to get. The cumulative effect is the unknown. And your overall demeanor in your response really makes my point better than I ever could.



My overall demeanor was just great until you started talking down to me and bashing me for no reason......for the past few weeks I have been researching things with an open mind......give yourself a pat on the back for making me now having a closed mind about the subject......
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2142. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST August 11 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.0N 114.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
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Quoting 2134. wxchaser97:

Yeah, models are still showing some sort of development in the GOM in 5-7 days. There should be a favorable environment with shear being light and SST's being very warm. It just depends on where the energy goes. If it interacts with land more it won't become much, and if it goes farther north it would have more time over water. I'd say there's a pretty decent chance of this developing.


Thank you sir! Still want that man hug Gro
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 10 2013

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COLLAPSED DURING THE DAY...AND
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK...SATELLITE SIGNATURES SHOW OVERALL WEAKENING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR HENRIETTE HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 35 KT...WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OF THE JTWC...SAB...AND CPHC FIXES.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR HENRIETTE REMAINS AT 265/18...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ALONG RECENT FORECAST TRACKS. HENRIETTE IS BEING DRIVEN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
KEEPING HENRIETTE ON A SIMILAR BEARING. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE LAST FEW PACKAGES.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT ITS
CORE CAN BE DISRUPTED BY RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES IN THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. HENRIETTE WILL PASS OVER WATERS WITH SST
OF ABOUT 27 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH INCREASING SST AND
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FARTHER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME...IT
WILL PROBABLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF HENRIETTE. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN ACCELERATED WITH
THIS PACKAGE...DROPPING HENRIETTE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT
AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND
ICVN GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.8N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.5N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.0N 158.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 12.8N 162.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 12.7N 165.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.