An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2236. JLPR2:


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.


Will the current SAL we have now dissipate in a few days?
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BOC disturbance

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8-11-13 @ 3:00 utc. It looks like p22l has more go than p20l. And look what's coming...
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Additional strengthening should occur for the next 12-18 hours over very warm waters before making landfall on Luzon. Restrengthening is expected once entering into the South China Sea.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
2236. JLPR2
Quoting 2232. mitchelace5:


Is the SAL building again?


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll see if Utor can surpass Soulik as the strongest system in the northern hemisphere thus far. Soulik originated, interestingly, from an upper-level low that gained tropical characteristics over very warm sea surface temperatures over a span of several days. It reached a peak of 125 kt (145 mph).



There is the eye on visible now.



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Quoting 2220. flsky:
A friend is driving to ECFL from northern Indiana on Monday. How do conditions look for his drive.



Monday has a 40% chance of rain for Middle Tennessee, your friend should be good. The flood-waters have gone away, they went down Thursday afternoon, but Thursday morning was bad. One more inch and my street would've been blocked off by the usually tranquil creek that runs beside it, lol.
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Imagine if the USA had the average of landfalling Tropical Cyclones that the P.I. does. Below is for 2006.

The Philippines have experienced another busy but typical year in terms of tropical cyclone activity. The island chain often finds itself directly in the path of tropical cyclones that have formed upstream in the Western Pacific. Between 1984 and 2004, approximately 20 tropical cyclones per year on average have formed or entered the region with nearly 9 of those making landfall in the Philippines. In an average year, the Northwest Pacific basin typically sees 27 named storms, 17 typhoons, and 8.5 typhoons of category 3 or higher. So far this season there have been 22 storms, 15 typhoons and 7 super typhoons with nearly 2400 reported fatalities as a result.
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Quoting 2226. JLPR2:


Yes there is a low, OSCAT showed it very nicely, but right now convection is limited to a band to the SE of the circulation. We'll have to see if it can develop more tonight. There is dry air in the area and some will inevitably be pulled into the circulation.

So nothing eminent but at least something to watch.


Is the SAL building again?
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2231. sar2401
Quoting flsky:
A friend is driving to ECFL from northern Indiana on Monday. How do conditions look for his drive.


The storms are widely scattered and it just depends on if he runs into a slow moving bunch of them. Some places north of Birmingham got 2.5 inches today while we in SE AL got .23". As longs as his A/C works and he listens to the local NOAA weather radio on the way down, he should be OK. It was 102 today before our one little storm moved in, and it's still 79 now.
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Quoting 2228. BaltimoreBrian:


There are part of why :)








looks tasty and a super fruit.
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oh 00z is running....
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Quoting 2214. unknowncomic:
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?

These are part of why :)

One

Two

Three

Four

Can I have a little more?
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I know a positive MJO causes lift and instability in the atmosphere, and increases moisture supply to TWs. But what effect does it have on wind shear? Does the positive MJO weaken it?
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2226. JLPR2
Quoting 2223. mitchelace5:


Is there a low pressure center? If you, would the convection organize and consolidate around the center, or is dry air preventing that?


Yes there is a low, OSCAT showed it very nicely, but right now convection is limited to a band to the SE of the circulation. We'll have to see if it can develop more tonight. There is dry air in the area and some will inevitably be pulled into the circulation.

So nothing eminent but at least something to watch.
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2225. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?

It's kind of like a cranberry and makes really good jam. It's actually plentiful in all of Scandinavia, so I think Gro is pulling our legs a little about the helicopter thefts. No one here except Gro and his relatives would know about it if IKEA didn't start selling the stuff, and it became all the rage among the edgy folks who frequent IKEA stores.
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What are Lingonberries? - A Scandinavian Cooking Definition

Link

A "Superfruit"
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Quoting 2218. JLPR2:
Now the vorticity of the TW is looking interesting.

The 850mb vort (closest to the surface that CIMMS has) has a strange horseshoe shape with one of the legs aligned with the mid level vort (700mb and 500mb).

850mb:


700mb:


500mb:


Still not very impressive convection-.


Is there a low pressure center? If there is, would the convection try to organize and consolidate around the center, or is dry air preventing that?
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Quoting 2214. unknowncomic:
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?

It is the only berry that will grow in places that cold...maybe? Now you got me.
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Quoting 2209. Birthmark:

A berry that Norwegians steal from Sweden. Weren't you paying attention? :)


Thats not berry nice....
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2220. flsky
A friend is driving to ECFL from northern Indiana on Monday. How do conditions look for his drive.

Quoting 2211. Astrometeor:
Anyone hear about the floods in Tennessee this past Thursday? A Church of Christ down the street from my church received 5 FEET of water within their building. My church sits on a hill, yet the water seeped through the walls in the basement and delivered 6 inches of water. My church has flood insurance, but apparently, this did not qualify as a flood. Anyways, here's the story with a few fixes on my part from what I heard from my pastor who visited the Church of Christ to check on them:


Heavy rain causes flash flooding across middle Tennessee Thursday morning. Most of the water has now receded, but the cleanup is just getting started.

Madison, Tennessee got an early wake up call Thursday morning. Around 5:30 a.m. the rain came fast. Officials say many roads were impassable and dozens of people, including a 5-week-old baby, had to be rescued from high waters.

A small strip mall was knocked off its foundation. Over at Madison Church of Christ, the Sonrise room is covered in water and sewage. Church officials say the water was so strong, it pushed out several windows and a door.

"It was torrential," said Madison Church of Christ Elder Jim Gotto. "I mean just coming of course, it wasn't coming from out. It appeared to be coming from inside the building and flowing out, which would indicate a storm sewer was backing up."

Gotto tells us the flooding damaged children's classrooms, two fellowship rooms, a kitchen, and offices on the first floor. He says some areas had five feet of water. They lost furniture, wedding supplies, classroom materials, books, and computers. Crews spent the day pumping out the water and starting the cleanup process.

"Having lived through the 2010 flood," said Gotto, "and I went down about six months after Katrina, it wasn't the ahh where somebody that's never seen something like this happen, but just a little bit of discouragement knowing we're going to have a big bill."

Gotto says it's a sickening feeling because the church does not have flood insurance. Madison Church of Christ says it suffered $1,000,000 in damage.

The church says it plans to hold Sunday services at another campus in Hendersonville, Tennessee, and they hope to be back at Madison Church of Christ the following weekend.

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Quoting 2213. PensacolaDoug:
The real story about temperatures - you won't hear about on TWC

The real story in your post is that the "G" in "AGW" stands for "Global." Showing US temperature data to refute global warming is a bit like showing a state with a budget surplus and then claiming that that refutes the US deficit.
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2218. JLPR2
Now the vorticity of the TW is looking interesting.

The 850mb vort (closest to the surface that CIMMS has) has a strange horseshoe shape with one of the legs aligned with the mid level vort (700mb and 500mb).

850mb:


700mb:


500mb:


Still not very impressive convection-wise.
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Tl;dr
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2216. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Why thank you. It took awhile, but it worked out well. The only problem we have between our countries is that the Norwegians fly over in their helicopters to Sweden and steal their lingonberries. (It really is a big problem)

Gro, the Swedes have one of the best air defense systems in Europe, and it has quite a sizable air force. The Norwegians barely have enough helicopters to fly the Crown Prince around. I imagine the Swedes could protect their ligonberries if push came to shove. :-)
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...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW
TO S TEXAS AT 27N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE...FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N92W. THIS IS THE MAJOR WEATHER
PRODUCER IN THE GULF. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 88W-93W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

Not too much weather with these features , passing showers and 15-20 kt E. Winds at my location in the Gulf...Surprised me when I saw the yellow crayon even
if it was a 0%...
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Quoting 2209. Birthmark:

A berry that Norwegians steal from Sweden. Weren't you paying attention? :)
More specifics..What is so good about it that they steal it?
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The real story about temperatures - you won't hear about on TWC

Joe D'Aleo
Weatherbell



August 10 08:45 AM

A recent story that made the headlines and appeared as hard news on the NBC Universal comedy channel called The Weather Channel said the warming is ten times faster than any time in history and we are now warmer than since the dinosaurs roamed the planet. Lets take a look at the data and we'll see the apparent warming may be man made but the men are in the NOAA climate data center. A little more than a decade ago I was championing NOAA NCDC for their efforts to assemble an accurate data set for the CONUS. We knew at the time it had flaws, but it was widely recognized as the best in the world.

NOAA NCDC USHCN

When first implemented in 1990 as USHCN version1, it employed 1221 stations across the United States. In 1999, NASA%u2019s James Hansen published this graph of USHCN version 1 annual mean temperatures:



About which Hansen correctly noted: "The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934."

USHCN was generally accepted as the world's best data base of temperatures with the stations most continuous and stable, and adjustments made for time of observation, urbanization, known land use changes around sites each of which can produce major contamination issues for temperature data.

URBAN HEAT ISLAND

There is no real dispute that weather data from cities, as collected by meteorological stations, is contaminated by urban heat island (UHI) bias, and that this has to be removed to identify climatic changes or trends. In cities, vertical walls, steel and concrete absorb the sun%u2019s heat and are slow to cool at night. More and more of the world is urbanized (population increased from 1.5 B to near 7 B today).

The UHI effect occurs not only for big cities but also for towns. Oke (who won the 2008 American Meteorological Society%u2019s Helmut Landsberg award for his pioneer work on urbanization) had a formula for the warming that is tied to population. Oke (1973) found that the UHI (in %uFFFFC) increases according to the formula

UHI= 0.73 log10 POP

where pop denotes population. This means that a village with a population of 10 has a warm bias of 0.73%uFFFFC, a village with 100 has a warm bias of 1.46%uFFFFC, a town with a population of 1000 people has a warm bias of 2.2C%uFFFF, and a large city with a million people has a warm bias of 4.4%uFFFFC.



Urban heat islands as seen from infrared sensors onboard satellites.

Goodrich (1996) showed the importance of urbanization to temperatures in his study of California counties in 1996. He found for counties with a million or more population the warming from 1910 to 1995 was 4F, for counties with 100,000 to 1 million, 1F and for counties with less than 100,000, no change (0.1F).




NCDC%u2019s Tom Karl(1988) employed a similar scheme for the first USHCN data base (released in 1990) that was the best data set available at that time. He noted that the national climate network formerly consisted of predominantly rural or small towns with populations below 25,000 (as of 1980 census) and yet that a UHI effect was clearly evident.

Tom Karl's adjustments were smaller than Oke had found (0.22%uFFFFC annually on a town of 10,000 and 1.81%uFFFFC on a city of 1 million and 3.73%uFFFFC for a city of 5 million).

Karl observed that in smaller towns and rural areas the net UHI contamination was relatively small but that significant anomalies showed up in rapidly growing population centers.

USHCN also maintained a METADATA base (later shown by Anthony Watts in surfacestations.org project to be not by any means perfect) that identified changes in observing site locations and instrumentation and supposedly made adjustments accordingly, along with adjustment for change in the time of observation over the years.

Note in the graph above 1934 at that time had an anomaly of close to 1.5C (2.7F) and 1998, the super El Nino (about 0.95C (roughly 1.8F). In the early 2000s, some state climatologists began to notice a gradual change in the historical data, with the past beginning to cool.

The was a dilemma that was causing angst among the UN, US and global scientist in trying to explain why the US was out of sync with the global assessment which minimized the cyclical nature and amplified the apparent warming. This was largely because the global contained no adjustment for urbanization and was biased toward urban areas, especially after the big drop off of stations used starting in the late 1980s.

There was a disclaimer on the NASA site that showed global and US, under the US that the US only represented only 1.6% of the world and thus was not representtive of the real alarming story.

In 2007, NCDC announced version 2 of the USHCN was to be released. It removed the UHI adjustment and replaced it withan adjustment that was designed to catch previously undocumented inhomogeneities (station location changes). It added additional coop station and a process called homogenization or blending of stations. Though Tom Karl assured me his staff told him it would catch UHI changes, in reality those changes are gradual not discontinuous. Take for example Sacramento, California.



It would or at last should spot the sudden change as occurred at Tahoe City, CA when a tennis court and trash burn barrel were placed around the shelter in 1980. The clay or paved court was a heat source. Specifications for instruments are that they are to be located 100 feet from any such heat source.

Well the new version brought big changes. Instead of 1934 being 0.9F warmer than 1998, 1998 actually became warmer than 1934. were virtually the same and an upward trend in the overall temperatures were visible that was not there in the 1999 plot. Here is that new version with data brought up to 2012.

In this NASA version of the USHCN data, the base period of 1951-1980 was used.
The NCDC version of temperatures not anomalies in degrees F and C is plotted below. It has a base period of 1901 to 2000. Notice again than 1998 i warmer than 1934 by 0.2F. That is a flip of 1.1F since USHCN.I calculated anomalies and did a difference of the two versions. The 'dust bowl deniers' have pretty much ensured that every month, season, year and decade will rank now among the warmest ever and TWC can make the ridiculous claim that were are now warmer than anytime since dinosaurs walked the earth.The only data set not messed with their new adjustments is the record highs and lows. Although some at NCAR have suggested that too needs to be adjusted, it is in too many places - in every TV station and local office and would be much more noticeable than adjusting the annual means in the way they did.

Here are the plots of record highs - all time state and monthly all time state and daily cities with long histories. they are all much more in sync with the USHCN version 1 and likely the real story. Notice the dominance of the 1930s.
Finally how good are these homogenization adjustments that are said to be the replacement for UHI?

Dr Edward Long, formerly with NASA did a study for the lower 48 states using representative urban and rural locations. In the raw data, Dr. Long found the rural warmed at 0.13C/century (0.23F) and the urban 0.79C/century (1.42F).
One would expect the rural to be the better uncontaminated data set and any blending should bias the urban heat towards the rural cooler set, but that is not what happens. the rural trends leaps to 0.64C (1.15F)/century and the urban stays high at 0.77C (1.39F/century).A team of scientists looked at the issue urban and siting contamination in a paper that will soon be published. They found that siting/urban contamination matters and that NOAA adjustments clearly make the final results worse not better.

This study was only for the period 1979 to 2008, covering the warm PDO and grand solar maximum which produced the two decade warming, not the entire century..
In fact if they did not migrate away from USHCN v1 and maintained the UHI, the 2000s would be the second warmest decade behind the 1930s in line withe the record highs.Is the global any better?

As if it wasn't bad enough before, the recent changes have amplified it too, in the same way of cooling the past and warming recent years. Some of this is the bleed through of the US adjustments.
Even with all this data manipulation, the trend is down as shown by this Hadley global plot. Last year was the 8th warmest but 7th coldest since 1998. They explain it away with the predominance of La Ninas or a solar blip but say it was the warmest decade ever nonetheless so stop questioning us.So next time you read that July or that 2013 ranked in the top ten warmest ever, and the last decade was the warmest since the dinosaurs roamed the planet keep these facts in mind.The temperature data's only relationship to the dinosaurs was shown in the movie Jurassic Park.By the way, CO2 in prior epochs was much higher than today. We are in the low end of the range that plants thrive.
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2212. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Typhoon "LABUYO" continues to pose a threat over Eastern Luzon as it moves closer to the Aurora Province

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Labuyo [UTOR] (963 hPa) located at 14.7N 125.6E or 160 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots gusting up to 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warnings #3

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Provinces
3. Northern Quezon
4. Province including
5. Polilio Island
6. Aurora
7. Isabela

Signal Warnings #2

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Albay
2. Sorsogon
3. Rizal
4. Rest of Quezon
5. Laguna
6. Bulacan
7. Nueva Ecija
8. Quirino
9. Nueva Viscaya
10. Benguet
11. Ifugao
12. Mountain Province
13. Kalinga
14. Cagayan

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Calayan Group of Islands
2. Babuyan Group of Islands
3. Ilocos Norte
4. Ilocos Sur
5. Apayao
6. Abra
7. La Union
8. Pangasinan
9. Tarlac
10. Zambales
11. Pampanga
12. Bataan
13. Cavite
14. Batangas
15. Marinduque
16. Burias
17. Ticao Islands
18. Metro Manila

Visayas Region
-----------------
1. northern Samar

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 -25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3,#2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Typhoon "Labuyo" will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the rest of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Anyone hear about the floods in Tennessee this past Thursday? A Church of Christ down the street from my church received 5 FEET of water within their building. My church sits on a hill, yet the water seeped through the walls in the basement and delivered 6 inches of water. My church has flood insurance, but apparently, this did not qualify as a flood. Anyways, here's the story with a few fixes on my part from what I heard from my pastor who visited the Church of Christ to check on them:


Heavy rain causes flash flooding across middle Tennessee Thursday morning. Most of the water has now receded, but the cleanup is just getting started.

Madison, Tennessee got an early wake up call Thursday morning. Around 5:30 a.m. the rain came fast. Officials say many roads were impassable and dozens of people, including a 5-week-old baby, had to be rescued from high waters.

A small strip mall was knocked off its foundation. Over at Madison Church of Christ, the Sonrise room is covered in water and sewage. Church officials say the water was so strong, it pushed out several windows and a door.

"It was torrential," said Madison Church of Christ Elder Jim Gotto. "I mean just coming of course, it wasn't coming from out. It appeared to be coming from inside the building and flowing out, which would indicate a storm sewer was backing up."

Gotto tells us the flooding damaged children's classrooms, two fellowship rooms, a kitchen, and offices on the first floor. He says some areas had five feet of water. They lost furniture, wedding supplies, classroom materials, books, and computers. Crews spent the day pumping out the water and starting the cleanup process.

"Having lived through the 2010 flood," said Gotto, "and I went down about six months after Katrina, it wasn't the ahh where somebody that's never seen something like this happen, but just a little bit of discouragement knowing we're going to have a big bill."

Gotto says it's a sickening feeling because the church does not have flood insurance. Madison Church of Christ says it suffered $1,000,000 in damage.

The church says it plans to hold Sunday services at another campus in Hendersonville, Tennessee, and they hope to be back at Madison Church of Christ the following weekend.

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Latest NAM in 84HRS showing convection in SW Carib.
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Quoting 2207. unknowncomic:
What's a lingonberry?

A berry that Norwegians steal from Sweden. Weren't you paying attention? :)
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2208. sar2401
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.

Pretty much. :-) I assume you mean the convective mass that headed north from the Yucatan right now. If so, that's just normal blow-off that occurs almost every day and dies off by sunrise. I don't see any kind of focusing mechanism that's going to make that unofficial blob any different that the others we've been seeing. The Western Gulf is starting to show some decent convection for the first time in a month, and I do expect our first hurricane to come from that general area. It just won't be this particular blobette.
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Quoting 2202. Grothar:


Why thank you. It took awhile, but it worked out well. The only problem we have between our countries is that the Norwegians fly over in their helicopters to Sweden and steal their lingonberries. (It really is a big problem)
What's a lingonberry?
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2206. Grothar
Quoting 2190. CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.


Yes.


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Quoting 2199. HurricaneHunterJoe:


From the ULL?
Surface low south of the ULL.
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Quoting 2199. HurricaneHunterJoe:


From the ULL?


It's moving fast, and due to it's proximity to Mexico, no way it could intensify into a Tropical Storm, let alone a Depression
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We'll see if Utor can surpass Soulik as the strongest system in the northern hemisphere thus far. Soulik originated, interestingly, from an upper-level low that gained tropical characteristics over very warm sea surface temperatures over a span of several days. It reached a peak of 125 kt (145 mph).

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2202. Grothar
Quoting 2192. Birthmark:

And a darn good model it is, too.


Why thank you. It took awhile, but it worked out well. The only problem we have between our countries is that the Norwegians fly over in their helicopters to Sweden and steal their lingonberries. (It really is a big problem)
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Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
2200. Grothar
Quoting 2196. sar2401:

We are nearing the peak of the Persieds meteor shower, and there have been reports of some pretty spectacular falls, although I haven't seen one yet. The peak is the 13th, and we should be near 100 per hour with a dark sky. Should be a good show for everyone lucky enough to have no city lights and a clear sky.


The biggest meteor shower I ever saw was in November 1966. There were thousands per hour. I was stationed in Fort Riley, KS at the time. They actually woke us up about 2 AM to watch it and let us sleep in late.
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Quoting 2190. CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.


From the ULL?
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Quoting 2193. Grothar:
Getting mean. (The storm I mean)



Definitely an eye.



The warm machine springs to life
opens up one eager eye (based on Nena 99 Luftballons)
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SAB at T5.5/102kts as of 0232UTC.

11/0232 UTC 14.8N 125.4E T5.5/5.5 UTOR -- West Pacific
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2196. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Radioactive light from one of the satellites out in space being taken over by aliens. Don't get close.

We are nearing the peak of the Persieds meteor shower, and there have been reports of some pretty spectacular falls, although I haven't seen one yet. The peak is the 13th, and we should be near 100 per hour with a dark sky. Should be a good show for everyone lucky enough to have no city lights and a clear sky.
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Anyone else think Tater Tots are pretty dang good? A little levity to break the tension...lol
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Quoting 2182. moonlightcowboy:


Devil, I made no such remark, and I will not comment on AGW nor partisan politics. Both parties, many entities, many people including us are to blame for the desperate financial situation this country faces, and it has to do with many, many things, of which dependency on foreign oil has been one small piece of the pie.

Now, that's it, all I'm going to say on the subject. Back to the tropics! :)

But you just commented on partisan politics in #2176 & 2182. Which cowboy am I to believe?

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2193. Grothar
Getting mean. (The storm I mean)



Definitely an eye.

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Quoting 2179. Grothar:


None of the Scandinavian countries are Socialist. The systems in all the countries including Finland are often referred to as the Nordic model.

>shoulder nudge<

And a darn good model it is, too.
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Eye feature slowly becoming more pronounced. Utor continues to strengthen.

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Am I the only one that's expecting a TD to form tomorrow down in the BOC, around 21/94? Maybe go on to ease into Tampico on Tuesday as TS Erin.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.