An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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The Etn model almost seems like the cyclogenesis run that the other FIMs use for start-points.

FIM seems to be out-running GFS all around.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
2289. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


The Swedes just like to brag.

Well, if you don't count Count Carl Gustaf von Rosen and his crazed Swedish pilots fighting for Biafra in the late 60's, the last war Sweden was in was 1814, when they invaded Norway, probably to protect their precious ligonberry supply, so they don't have a lot to brag about. :-)
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Convection redeveloping near Henriette's center.

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Quoting sar2401:

That cone is starting to move toward Vietnam also, which is pretty unusual. I hope it's not too bad in the Philippines, but they always seem to catch the worst of it from typhoons.




Tomorrow I feel there will be a bigger area of red.
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Quoting 2284. Siker:
The GEM and CMC both refer to the same model, just FYI.


Is that really so? I had no idea.
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Quoting 2213. PensacolaDoug:
The real story about temperatures - you won't hear about on TWC

Joe D'Aleo
Weatherbell



August 10 08:45 AM

A recent story that made the headlines and appeared as hard news on the NBC Universal comedy channel called The Weather Channel said the warming is ten times faster than any time in history and we are now warmer than since the dinosaurs roamed the planet. Lets take a look at the data and we'll see the apparent warming may be man made but the men are in the NOAA climate data center. A little more than a decade ago I was championing NOAA NCDC for their efforts to assemble an accurate data set for the CONUS. We knew at the time it had flaws, but it was widely recognized as the best in the world.

NOAA NCDC USHCN

When first implemented in 1990 as USHCN version1, it employed 1221 stations across the United States. In 1999, NASA%u2019s James Hansen published this graph of USHCN version 1 annual mean temperatures:



About which Hansen correctly noted: %u201CThe U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.%u201D

USHCN was generally accepted as the world%u2019s best data base of temperatures with the stations most continuous and stable, and adjustments made for time of observation, urbanization, known land use changes around sites each of which can produce major contamination issues for temperature data.

URBAN HEAT ISLAND

There is no real dispute that weather data from cities, as collected by meteorological stations, is contaminated by urban heat island (UHI) bias, and that this has to be removed to identify climatic changes or trends. In cities, vertical walls, steel and concrete absorb the sun%u2019s heat and are slow to cool at night. More and more of the world is urbanized (population increased from 1.5 B to near 7 B today).

The UHI effect occurs not only for big cities but also for towns. Oke (who won the 2008 American Meteorological Society%u2019s Helmut Landsberg award for his pioneer work on urbanization) had a formula for the warming that is tied to population. Oke (1973) found that the UHI (in %uFFFFC) increases according to the formula

UHI= 0.73 log10 POP

where pop denotes population. This means that a village with a population of 10 has a warm bias of 0.73%uFFFFC, a village with 100 has a warm bias of 1.46%uFFFFC, a town with a population of 1000 people has a warm bias of 2.2C%uFFFF, and a large city with a million people has a warm bias of 4.4%uFFFFC.



Urban heat islands as seen from infrared sensors onboard satellites.

Goodrich (1996) showed the importance of urbanization to temperatures in his study of California counties in 1996. He found for counties with a million or more population the warming from 1910 to 1995 was 4F, for counties with 100,000 to 1 million, 1F and for counties with less than 100,000, no change (0.1F).




NCDC%u2019s Tom Karl(1988) employed a similar scheme for the first USHCN data base (released in 1990) that was the best data set available at that time. He noted that the national climate network formerly consisted of predominantly rural or small towns with populations below 25,000 (as of 1980 census) and yet that a UHI effect was clearly evident.

Tom Karl et al%u2019s adjustments were smaller than Oke had found (0.22%uFFFFC annually on a town of 10,000 and 1.81%uFFFFC on a city of 1 million and 3.73%uFFFFC for a city of 5 million).

Karl observed that in smaller towns and rural areas the net UHI contamination was relatively small but that significant anomalies showed up in rapidly growing population centers.

USHCN also maintained a METADATA base (later shown by Anthony Watts in surfacestations.org project to be not by any means perfect) that identified changes in observing site locations and instrumentation and supposedly made adjustments accordingly, along with adjustment for change in the time of observation over the years.

Note in the graph above 1934 at that time had an anomaly of close to 1.5C (2.7F) and 1998, the super El Nino (about 0.95C (roughly 1.8F). In the early 2000s, some state climatologists began to notice a gradual change in the historical data, with the past beginning to cool.

The was a dilemma that was causing angst among the UN, US and global scientist in trying to explain why the US was out of sync with the global assessment which minimized the cyclical nature and amplified the apparent warming. This was largely because the global contained no adjustment for urbanization and was biased toward urban areas, especially after the big drop off of stations used starting in the late 1980s.

There was a disclaimer on the NASA site that showed global and US, under the US that the US only represented only 1.6% of the world and thus was not representtive of the real alarming story.

In 2007, NCDC announced version 2 of the USHCN was to be released. It removed the UHI adjustment and replaced it withan adjustment that was designed to catch previously undocumented inhomogeneities (station location changes). It added additional coop station and a process called homogenization or blending of stations. Though Tom Karl assured me his staff told him it would catch UHI changes, in reality those changes are gradual not discontinuous. Take for example Sacramento, California.



It would or at last should spot the sudden change as occurred at Tahoe City, CA when a tennis court and trash burn barrel were placed around the shelter in 1980. The clay or paved court was a heat source. Specifications for instruments are that they are to be located 100 feet from any such heat source.

Well the new version brought big changes. Instead of 1934 being 0.9F warmer than 1998, 1998 actually became warmer than 1934. were virtually the same and an upward trend in the overall temperatures were visible that was not there in the 1999 plot. Here is that new version with data brought up to 2012.

In this NASA version of the USHCN data, the base period of 1951-1980 was used.
The NCDC version of temperatures not anomalies in degrees F and C is plotted below. It has a base period of 1901 to 2000. Notice again than 1998 i warmer than 1934 by 0.2F. That is a flip of 1.1F since USHCN.I calculated anomalies and did a difference of the two versions. The 'dust bowl deniers' have pretty much ensured that every month, season, year and decade will rank now among the warmest ever and TWC can make the ridiculous claim that were are now warmer than anytime since dinosaurs walked the earth.The only data set not messed with their new adjustments is the record highs and lows. Although some at NCAR have suggested that too needs to be adjusted, it is in too many places - in every TV station and local office and would be much more noticeable than adjusting the annual means in the way they did.

Here are the plots of record highs - all time state and monthly all time state and daily cities with long histories. they are all much more in sync with the USHCN version 1 and likely the real story. Notice the dominance of the 1930s.
Finally how good are these homogenization adjustments that are said to be the replacement for UHI?

Dr Edward Long, formerly with NASA did a study for the lower 48 states using representative urban and rural locations. In the raw data, Dr. Long found the rural warmed at 0.13C/century (0.23F) and the urban 0.79C/century (1.42F).
One would expect the rural to be the better uncontaminated data set and any blending should bias the urban heat towards the rural cooler set, but that is not what happens. the rural trends leaps to 0.64C (1.15F)/century and the urban stays high at 0.77C (1.39F/century).A team of scientists looked at the issue urban and siting contamination in a paper that will soon be published. They found that siting/urban contamination matters and that NOAA adjustments clearly make the final results worse not better.

This study was only for the period 1979 to 2008, covering the warm PDO and grand solar maximum which produced the two decade warming, not the entire century..
In fact if they did not migrate away from USHCN v1 and maintained the UHI, the 2000s would be the second warmest decade behind the 1930s in line withe the record highs.Is the global any better?

As if it wasn't bad enough before, the recent changes have amplified it too, in the same way of cooling the past and warming recent years. Some of this is the bleed through of the US adjustments.
Even with all this data manipulation, the trend is down as shown by this Hadley global plot. Last year was the 8th warmest but 7th coldest since 1998. They explain it away with the predominance of La Ninas or a solar blip but say it was the warmest decade ever nonetheless so stop questioning us.So next time you read that July or that 2013 ranked in the top ten warmest ever, and the last decade was the warmest since the dinosaurs roamed the planet keep these facts in mind.The temperature data's only relationship to the dinosaurs was shown in the movie Jurassic Park.By the way, CO2 in prior epochs was much higher than today. We are in the low end of the range that plants thrive.


Seriously Doug. I know your not a dumb guy. Why get sucked into the backwash of blog journalism. The US is not nor has ever been global. Before trying to argue these advance concepts on the interwebs, start with the first proposition put out. CO2 in the atmosphere allows less heat energy to escape back out into space. The first time you can disprove the most basic of arguments, then we can get into the more advanced concepts. You have been duped my friend, possibly caught up in the political aspect of the whole issue. Instead of giving us a bunch of copy pasta, focus on the first argument and refute it. Increased CO2 causes less heat energy to escape the planet and causes more to stay here, thereby raising global temperatures.
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2284. Siker
Quoting 2275. BaltimoreBrian:


There was another model that showed something similar I posted a couple hundred comments ago. It may have been the same model. Nope different one, I'll post it again. It's the GEM.

The GEM and CMC both refer to the same model, just FYI.
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Quoting 2275. BaltimoreBrian:


There was another model that showed something similar I posted a couple hundred comments ago. It may have been the same model. Nope different one, I'll post it again. It's the GEM.




The Navy Model also shows a system in the NW Caribbean a little slower arriving in the GOM but it is the same system developing.
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Quoting 2266. sar2401:

Oh, private helicopters. Good heavens, here we have private birds flying cocaine and Norway has ligonberry smugglers. I didn't mean to play down the role of Norway in NATO. They provide the main anti-submarine and mine hunting forces to the Northern Command of NATO. I just meant that, if an all-out ligonberry war developed, Norway's 57 aging F-16 fighters might have a difficult time against the Swedish Air Force's 130 or so JAS 39 Grippen fighters. :-)


Norway's looking better and better. No debt. Helipad in every backyard. Humanitarian attitude. And scrumptious ligonberry treats on every table.
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2281. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Well,,, I am worried as my Wife has all of her family there and we will be going there in just over 4 months. I know exactly where Utor will travel. The mountain range that is in it's path will hurt it a fair bit but will also cause flash flooding.


That cone is starting to move toward Vietnam also, which is pretty unusual. I hope it's not too bad in the Philippines, but they always seem to catch the worst of it from typhoons.
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2280. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)



Those Norwegians looked pretty deadly with that fire hose. I'm almost certain I saw one of those sailors with what looked like an itchy trigger finger on the 7.62mm machine gun though. :-)

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Eye continues to clear out.

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Quoting Civicane49:
Additional strengthening should occur for the next 12-18 hours over very warm waters before making landfall on Luzon. Restrengthening is expected once entering into the South China Sea.



Well,,, I am worried as my Wife has all of her family there and we will be going there in just over 4 months. I know exactly where Utor will travel. The mountain range that is in it's path will hurt it a fair bit but will also cause flash flooding.

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Quoting 2270. redwagon:
I wish there was commentary from the FIM developers to explain the three sets. Then there's that one extremely obscure experimental model Gro posts from time to time. Starts with Etn or something.


I asked the question about FIM yesterday. FIM7 & 8 are lower resolution, so less accurate than FIM9. FIM9 goes out 7 days, whereas 7 and 8 go out 14. Any more info than that and an expert will have to answer.
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2276. Grothar
Quoting 2266. sar2401:

Oh, private helicopters. Good heavens, here we have private birds flying cocaine and Norway has ligonberry smugglers. I didn't mean to play down the role of Norway in NATO. They provide the main anti-submarine and mine hunting forces to the Northern Command of NATO. I just meant that, if an all-out ligonberry war developed, Norway's 57 aging F-16 fighters might have a difficult time against the Swedish Air Force's 130 or so JAS 39 Grippen fighters. :-)


The Swedes just like to brag.
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Quoting 2263. TampaSpin:
The CMC MODEL has a Storm developing in the GULF OF MEXICO in about 7 days. The Navy Model also shows the same system in the NW Caribbean. Need to watch how this plays out.



There was another model that showed something similar I posted a couple hundred comments ago. It may have been the same model. Nope different one, I'll post it again. It's the GEM.

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2274. Grothar
Quoting 2270. redwagon:
I wish there was commentary from the FIM developers to explain the three sets. Then there's that one extremely obscure experimental model Gro posts from time to time. Starts with Etn or something.


I'm really not supposed to post that anymore. It is not for general publication. If I do it again, they are going to pull my library card.
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Quoting 2257. Grothar:
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)

img src="">



They had brutal fleets back in the day.
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Quoting 2267. Birthmark:

I don't know him well enough to say (or at all). He certainly posts anti-science garbage on a fairly regular basis.


riiighhhttt....
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I wish there was commentary from the FIM developers to explain the three sets. Then there's that one extremely obscure experimental model Gro posts from time to time. Starts with Etn or something.
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2269. Gearsts
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Just a note: Hurricane Cleo, a strong cat.-2 storm made a direct hit on Miami and MiamiBeach on August 27th, 1964 with 110-MPH sustained winds and gusts to 135-MPH. Coconut palm trees were knocked down by the thousands and windows held together with masking tape were smashed to pieces. So get ready everyone. I think the show is about to begin.
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Quoting 2261. PensacolaDoug:
So Joe D'Aleo is "anti-science"?

I don't know him well enough to say (or at all). He certainly posts anti-science garbage on a fairly regular basis.
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2266. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


There is very little borders control between the two countries and many towns are half in Norway and half in Sweden. The Norwegians have become quite wealthy and many of them own their own helicopters and fly over and actually steal the tyttebaerer or Lingonberries that only grow in that particular part of Sweden. And by the way, Norway is one of the most important members of NATO and I have actually served on a number of NATO missions with a few of the bloggers on here. Also, I grew up there.

Oh, private helicopters. Good heavens, here we have private birds flying cocaine and Norway has ligonberry smugglers. I didn't mean to play down the role of Norway in NATO. They provide the main anti-submarine and mine hunting forces to the Northern Command of NATO. I just meant that, if an all-out ligonberry war developed, Norway's 57 aging F-16 fighters might have a difficult time against the Swedish Air Force's 130 or so JAS 39 Grippen fighters. :-)
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Good evening everyone

So....It's bad enough that I have to suffer through Aislin's incredible breakfast postings, now I have to go through this ridiculous sweet craving I've just developed. Thanks, Brian.

Lindy
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Quoting 2257. Grothar:
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)

img src="">

Brutal.
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The CMC MODEL has a Storm developing in the GULF OF MEXICO in about 7 days. The Navy Model also shows the same system in the NW Caribbean. Need to watch how this plays out.

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Quoting 2259. PensacolaDoug:
Is everything Dr. Masters puts up here "peer-reviewed"?


Nope. But it isn't posted to refute or advance science, either. It is educational in nature. It is evidence of nothing...much like the link you posted above.
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So, Joe D'Aleo is "anti-science"?
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Quoting 2251. Birthmark:

Good gravy! There's more? lol

I think I'll pass until it comes out in peer-reviewed form. Blog rants that misuse science are a dime a dozen. I prefer real science, if it's all the same to you. :p

While others bring up Kool Aid I'll find some lingonberry gravy. Good Gravy indeed!

Five

Six

Ah, that's better. Another plate of meatballs with lingonberry gravy Birthmark?
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Is everything Dr. Masters puts up here "peer-reviewed"?

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Quoting 2239. unknowncomic:
BOC disturbance


more like Gulf of Honduras system
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
2257. Grothar
To show you how serious it is. Here is a video of a Norwegian Navy ship attacking a Swedish ship. :)

img src="">
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Quoting 2254. PensacolaDoug:



How's that Kool-Aid?

Science isn't Kool-Aid, silly! Anti-science is. You can get it on any number of anti-science blogs. AGW, Evolution, Relativity, and the Big Bang are all "disproved" regularly on such blogs.

Somehow, those disproofs never seem to make it into the peer-reviewed literature.

Darnedest thing. lol

(And for the record, it wasn't Kool-Aid. It was Flavor-Aid.)
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2255. Grothar
Quoting 2245. redwagon:
Birthmark: it's a little green melon-lookin berry but it acts like a little blue chalky round ting.


They're red.
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Quoting 2251. Birthmark:

Good gravy! There's more? lol

I think I'll pass until it comes out in peer-reviewed form. Blog rants that misuse science are a dime a dozen. I prefer real science, if it's all the same to you. :p


Here's his Bio.

Joseph D' Aleo Chief Forecaster

Joseph D'Aleo is a partner at WeatherBELL and has been with the company since its inception. Mr. D'Aleo has a deep understanding of global oscillations and historical weather patterns. He uses an advanced statistical approach in applying this knowledge to weather and climate forecasting, specifically for the agriculture industry.

Mr. D'Aleo has over 30 years experience in professional meteorology. He was the first Director of Meteorology at the The Weather Channel. Mr. D'Aleo was Chief Meteorologist at WSI Corporation where he spent 17 years and created "Dr. Dewpoint" for WSI's popular Intellicast.com web site. He is a former college professor of Meteorology at Lyndon State College. He has authored and presented a number of papers as well as published a book focused on advanced applications enabled by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made skillful seasonal forecasts possible. Mr. D'Aleo has also authored many articles and made numerous presentations on the roles cycles in the sun and oceans have played in climate change.

Mr. D'Aleo is a Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). He has served as a member and chairman of the AMS Committee on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, and has co-chaired national conferences for both the AMS and the National Weather Association.

Joseph D'Aleo is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin and holds a Bachelors and Masters of Science.
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Looks like the GFS wants to bring the system back. Back-n-forth this model goes where it goes no one knows.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8434
2252. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
All this talk of military maneuvers over ligonberries is going to make me want to watch Winds of War and War and Remembrance again!

LOL. I can just see the Swedish Air Defence Command now. "Forget those planes coming from Russia, we've got more ligonberry bogies coming in from the west.". :-)
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Quoting 2247. PensacolaDoug:



G stands for "Goober" go read the rest of it.

Good gravy! There's more? lol

I think I'll pass until it comes out in peer-reviewed form. Blog rants that misuse science are a dime a dozen. I prefer real science, if it's all the same to you. :p
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2250. Grothar
Quoting 2216. sar2401:

Gro, the Swedes have one of the best air defense systems in Europe, and it has quite a sizable air force. The Norwegians barely have enough helicopters to fly the Crown Prince around. I imagine the Swedes could protect their ligonberries if push came to shove. :-)


There is very little borders control between the two countries and many towns are half in Norway and half in Sweden. The Norwegians have become quite wealthy and many of them own their own helicopters and fly over and actually steal the tyttebaerer or Lingonberries that only grow in that particular part of Sweden. And by the way, Norway is one of the most important members of NATO and I have actually served on a number of NATO missions with a few of the bloggers on here. Also, I grew up there.
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2249. JLPR2
Seems there is something in the BOC around hour 135.

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Quoting 2219. Birthmark:

The real story in your post is that the "G" in "AGW" stands for "Global." Showing US temperature data to refute global warming is a bit like showing a state with a budget surplus and then claiming that that refutes the US deficit.



G stands for "Goober" go read the rest of it.
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2246. sar2401
Quoting mitchelace5:


Will the current SAL we have now dissipate in a few days?

No, it takes at least a week. All it takes is the right circumstances with high winds, either from convective systems or high pressure systems, and the SAL can get cranked right up again. Like everything else this season, weak storms are going to be affected by SAL. Stronger systems are more likely to shrug it off.
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Birthmark: it's a little green melon-lookin berry but it acts like a little blue chalky round ting.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
All this talk of military maneuvers over ligonberries is going to make me want to watch Winds of War and War and Remembrance again!
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Quoting 2236. JLPR2:


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.


Seems like the positive MJO may be kicking in already.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
2242. sar2401
Quoting mitchelace5:
I know a positive MJO causes lift and instability in the atmosphere, and increases moisture supply to TWs. But what effect does it have on wind shear? Does the positive MJO weaken it?

A positive MJO has very little influence on wind shear. It does cause ascending air, making convection more likely, but all the other pieces, like low wind shear and high vertical instability have to be in place before storms really get going.
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Quoting 2238. seer2012:


8-11-13 @ 3:00 utc. It looks like p22l has more go than p20l.
That one looks massive, could be a large system.
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Quoting 2236. JLPR2:


Right now there isnt any new SAL emerging and the last burst is moving west just to the NW of the TW.


Will the current SAL we have now dissipate in a few days?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.