An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

Share this Blog
79
+

As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 90 - 40

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting 71. Grothar:


Wow, that's a lot of rain that could be going across South Florida this afternoon and evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median."

I admire NOAA for putting themselves out there with such a bold forecast.

I have also updated my forecast. I predict a 95% chance that there will be between 4-40 named storms, 0-36 hurricanes, and 0-36 majors, with an ACE 10% - 900% of the median. Now keep in mind that I'm only about 50% sure of this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing from CV at Friday's 12z GFS after that model had a hurricane on Thursday's 12z?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry ya'll I'm not allowed to post it.
TWA13 their cheating the public.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19. 62901IL:



When you say "September to remember", do you mean Isaac?


Frances, Isaac, Jeanne...anything is possible at this point. The experts have been saying we are in for a heavy season. Although nothing big is on the horizon it will soon be. You can count on that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 71. Grothar:
Wow it is already passing through Florida and into the Straits. I just don't know what the GFS was thinking when it forecasted the ULL to take 5 days to reach that region?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 71. Grothar:


That looks poised to go through the F-Straits in a path similar to Katrina. Is that correct? I saw high water temps & such like data for that area just yesterday. Katrina flared up rather suddenly off the SW tip of FL. Are there much differet conditions now or do you think we should keep a close eye on this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL didn't realize there was a new blog...anyways *repost* from last blog...171 hrs. out on the GFS watch BOC for development, hopefully it goes to Texas for obvious reasons.

so

Southwest La could use some rain as well, not much wind though.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 58. washingtonian115:
Lol.How the hell is that not named?.Are the forecasting agencies over there that pathetic?.

Very, very conservative? Yes. They are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It was nice to see that 2004 and 2005 were not analog years today. It is too early to say whether 2013 will be as memorable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 59. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sounds like you are also putting faith in one model run just because it doesn't show development. I am also beginning to wonder if the GFS will have its struggles this year because of it now being on the new supercomputer, obviously when you test new things out on the internet like when there is a new windows operating system there is bound to be bugs in the model. Like CybrTeddy is saying it doesn't make sense for a tropical wave in the far eastern atlantic to stall right over the Cape-Verde Islands. And why does there seem to be a permanent low pressure by Senegal, that doesn't make sense either. It wasn't like that on the old version of the GFS.


Might want to wait until we have an actual Tropical Cyclone that the GFS missed before reaching an opinion on the supercomputer. GFS has not been showing much development and we have not had any.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 45. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I know I did not mean it the way it looked

you do know its to get bad there right

if something comes

there will be nothing anyone can do about it

in nature's hands now


up to her


I would send her flowers and chocolate if I only knew where... I am not above currying favor...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 66. calkevin77:


Maybe they couldn't find the "start" button on that new version of Windows...Sarcasm flag: ON
But you do agree with me right, the GFS has been buggy lately it will run for a few frames stop and then resume and you won't see anything for a few frames and then it picks up after that. Anyways I hope this new upgrade is for the better good in the long run, just not buying what the GFS is and has been showing. By the way the ULL that the GFS said would take 5 days to reach South FL. is now over there, so it got that wrong.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Ahh, the new Friday entry emerged. Thanks, Dr. Masters.
I'll stick to my predicted cane numbers anyway, whatever they were, lol.

Overheated Eastern Europe is starting to get their thunderstorms with the entering cold front now.


Saved screenshot (lightning map with satellite).Source and fresh loop click here



Have a nice afternoon/evening everybody, I have to finish reading a novel now ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CYCLONE 11W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 61. SuperStorm093:
Look at the winds, there like 24-28kt, not strong at all.


The winds are likely to be much higher in actuality than the model, which loses resolution by 240 hours out, is showing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My point in the previous blog entry about starting a 'denialist' blog is simply because I'm not interested in seeing the arguments, pro or con, on climate change on this blog. That does not mean I don't want to see any information that goes against a personal opinion that I may have formed. I for one am all for persons reading all the scientific information available on a subject, that way each of us will be able to make an informed decision on what is or is not credible science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Nothing at the surface:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 63. TimSoCal:
Visible on 11W is even better looking.



Very strong and deep convection associated with TD 11W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 52. washingtonian115:
To my untrained eye that is not a T.D.That is at least a 50mph tropical storm by now.How can they be so conserative.They aren't doing them selves and the public any favors by holding out on others.I feel like they're cheating people.


If that was in Atlantic it would have been at least a 65 mph storm by now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also we could get development without even the models noticing it, it has happened before, most recently with Hurricane Michael of last year.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 55. nrtiwlnvragn:


If the Atlantic had a system that looked like this and was not a named Tropical Cyclone there would be torches and pitchforks out for the NHC.




Looks like a very powerful storm right now, but e inner workings are hard to measure to the naked eye especially with immense structure to this storm. I'd say typhoon by sunrise in the west Pacific Ocean.

Tropical wave over west Africa that is emerging into the Atlantic Ocean shows signs of organization, and signs or a large circulation present. Development is possible of is system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears boarder patrol has stopped yet another crossing into the U.S (T.C).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 59. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sounds like you are also putting faith in one model run just because it doesn't show development. I am also beginning to wonder if the GFS will have its struggles this year because of it now being on the new supercomputer, obviously when you test new things out on the internet like when there is a new windows operating system there is bound to be bugs in the model. Like CybrTeddy is saying it doesn't make sense for a tropical wave in the far eastern atlantic to stall right over the Cape-Verde Islands. And why does there seem to be a permanent low pressure by Senegal, that doesn't make sense either. It wasn't like that on the old version of the GFS.


Maybe they couldn't find the "start" button on that new version of Windows...Sarcasm flag: ON
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Superb post by JM!!! Most of the tropical weather prediction agencies are calling for an above average hurricane season. Interesting that he mentioned the Kelvin Waves transversing across the EPAC will be in our region by August 15th. Based on what it was able to accomplished with the EPAC I think 2-4 storms by the end of this month could be possible. Its going to be one of those season where to majority of activity will be around Late August - Late October. The FIM models have been quite consistent with tropical entities brewing in the NW Caribbean and heading into the favorable Gulf that area should bear watching first then shift over to the East Atlantic. It looks to be a busy next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think there's a decent chance we get two cyclones over the next week: a brief tropical storm in the East Atlantic and a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS has at least been pretty consistent on that bit. Given the upper-air pattern, I wouldn't be surprised if the latter disturbance got stronger than the model is forecasting.

I think there will be one in the Gulf but i'm not so sure about the Eastern Atlantic storm.


And Thank You Dr. Masters!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Visible on 11W is even better looking.

Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 781
Quoting 55. nrtiwlnvragn:


If the Atlantic had a system that looked like this and was not a named Tropical Cyclone there would be torches and pitchforks out for the NHC.





WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A
SMALL, TIGHTLY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091048Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE OF
THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING TO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS DUE
TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS FIXING AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 120 HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED BY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT EACH POSITION DUE TO AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE AID INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES LUZON. UPON MAKING
LANDFALL WITH LUZON, TD 11W WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BEFORE IT REEMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS AN OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE SCS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 96.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN VIETNAM AND
CHINA AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT
SPREAD IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TD 11W APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CHINA. THERE IS AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 56. CybrTeddy:


No. It's a moderate tropical storm.
Look at the winds, there like 24-28kt, not strong at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have a nice day blob trackers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 51. SuperStorm093:
And we are back to the quiet runs of the GFS again. To the guy saying last night after the 00z run, hows that feel all the bustcasters, well guess what, were right back at it. 384 hours out and only 1 TS, very minimal at best. Obviously it can change, but I think there are many factors going against development out there. And we will still a continual struggle to get formation of storms.
Sounds like you are also putting faith in one model run just because it doesn't show development. I am also beginning to wonder if the GFS will have its struggles this year because of it now being on the new supercomputer, obviously when you test new things out on the internet like when there is a new windows operating system there is bound to be bugs in the model. Like CybrTeddy is saying it doesn't make sense for a tropical wave in the far eastern atlantic to stall right over the Cape-Verde Islands. And why does there seem to be a permanent low pressure by Senegal, that doesn't make sense either. It wasn't like that on the old version of the GFS.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Lol.How the hell is that not named?.Are the forecasting agencies over there that pathetic?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 38. CybrTeddy:
The GFS again seems content on stalling out this system right over the Cape Verde islands. Doesn't seem very realistic.


That may be a result of a monsoonal low that has been consistently appearing in the model for over a week-and also makes the waves look very nice coming off the coast-and also an issue in separating the waves from the low in the model. Maybe.

If you want, go to the mag.ncep site or your favorite, and run the "850_temp_ht" loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 53. SuperStorm093:
the BOC system is a TD at best.


No. It's a moderate tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 46. TheDawnAwakening:
TD 11W is intensifying rapidly now, but current or initial intensity was last I saw 30knots ten minute sustained winds. I see this rapidly intensifying on satellite imagery, with a CDO region and several convective banding features surrounding the center and radial outlflow is perfect in all quadrants. The 72 hours forecasts from the JTWC indicates that ideal intensification conditions exists for the next 72 hours, and I see no reason, but for land interactions with the Philippines than for intensification into at least a typhoon, and maybe a super typhoon if rapid intensification continues.


If the Atlantic had a system that looked like this and was not a named Tropical Cyclone there would be torches and pitchforks out for the NHC.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 51. SuperStorm093:
And we are back to the quiet runs of the GFS again. To the guy saying last night after the 00z run, hows that feel all the bustcasters, well guess what, were right back at it. 384 hours out and only 1 TS, very minimal at best. Obviously it can change, but I think there are many factors going against development out there. And we will still a continual struggle to get formation of storms.


If you're going to set in store by a model run out to 384 hours then you should prepare to be very wrong when trying to set something in stone. The GFS is being inconsistent and even to an extent unrealistic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the BOC system is a TD at best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 46. TheDawnAwakening:
TD 11W is intensifying rapidly now, but current or initial intensity was last I saw 30knots ten minute sustained winds. I see this rapidly intensifying on satellite imagery, with a CDO region and several convective banding features surrounding the center and radial outlflow is perfect in all quadrants. The 72 hours forecasts from the JTWC indicates that ideal intensification conditions exists for the next 72 hours, and I see no reason, but for land interactions with the Philippines than for intensification into at least a typhoon, and maybe a super typhoon if rapid intensification continues.
To my untrained eye that is not a T.D.That is at least a 50mph tropical storm by now.How can they be so conserative.They aren't doing them selves and the public any favors by holding out on others.I feel like they're cheating people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And we are back to the quiet runs of the GFS again. To the guy saying last night after the 00z run, hows that feel all the bustcasters, well guess what, were right back at it. 384 hours out and only 1 TS, very minimal at best. Obviously it can change, but I think there are many factors going against development out there. And we will still a continual struggle to get formation of storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happens on the GFS is that the systems strengthens too fast, and because of that it moves north into the Cape Verde islands. That makes sense, but for whatever reason the 12z GFS stalls out the low pressure directly over the Cape Verde islands and kills it due to a mixture of cooler SST's and upwelling. I've never seen a Cape Verde cyclone stall out over the islands, which makes me think this is nonsensical if it isn't suspect. Getting good model consistency though on a possible BoC system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 31. Grothar:


Well, my mother in law is currently swimming off Miami Beach.


Oh lord. I just read this as I was sipping some coffee. Thanks for the Kona sinus rinse Gro :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I suggest we pay attention to the FIM models, for some reason every other global model has been very inconsistent and so far this year has been performing pretty badly. I can list various examples of model failures with the storms we have had this year.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
I think the EPAC is going to be above "below average" as there has already been eight named storms. Not sure what the average is but 11-16 seems too open. Are we thinking a neutral La Nina setting in place?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD 11W is intensifying rapidly now, but current or initial intensity was last I saw 30knots ten minute sustained winds. I see this rapidly intensifying on satellite imagery, with a CDO region and several convective banding features surrounding the center and radial outlflow is perfect in all quadrants. The 72 hours forecasts from the JTWC indicates that ideal intensification conditions exists for the next 72 hours, and I see no reason, but for land interactions with the Philippines than for intensification into at least a typhoon, and maybe a super typhoon if rapid intensification continues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 30. indianrivguy:


no lol about it Keeper... *cries*


I know I did not mean it the way it looked

you do know its to get bad there right

if something comes

there will be nothing anyone can do about it

in nature's hands now


up to her
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And another opinion/repost from early this morning in the last blog to stay on-topic.


08/09 00Z GFS 850 mb heights and relative humidity-valid @ 114 hrs.

Strong lower tropospheric ridging that has been in place across the northern Caribbean and southern gulf may begin to lift northward next Monday/Tuesday as deep-layer mid-latitude troughing to the north becomes established-allowing a weak to moderately well-developed monsoon gyre to lift north into the western Caribbean, Broad cyclonic flow, lowered pressures and monsoon-enhanced precipitation should provide a favorable environment for tropical storm formation.


08/09 00Z GFS 200 mb heights-valid @ 147 hrs.

GFS still presents some issues with unfavorable wind shear from another TUTT low drifting west across the Gulf of Mexico but as this modeled feature exits to the west it will be replaced by upper-level ridging atop the fertile conditions described above by mid week.

All of this does not guarantee development. Without an existing focus for low level development it may remain a broad monsoon circulation that may not have time to coalesce into a focused surface feature.

The first potential seed may come from a tropical wave that is currently west of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N31W TO 10N31W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. METEOSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR SPREADING OVER
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION.

Stronger easterly trades over the central Atlantic should increase the forward speed of the wave from the current analyzed 10 knots to somewhere around 15-20 knots. A VERY rough estimate would place the wave over the western Caribbean/Yucatan next Thursday. Current steering from the GFS takes a sharp kink in the 700mb isohypse towards Texas or Mexico but speculation beyond what is itemized here is premature. Most of the large scale features described have shown decent modeled consistency and it is that time of year so it's worth watching over the next few days to see if these decent conditions for tropical development continue and are timed well enough to allow development.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think there's a decent chance we get two cyclones over the next week: a brief tropical storm in the East Atlantic and a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS has at least been consistent on that bit.

Is it going to be a coast crawler?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think there's a decent chance we get two cyclones over the next week: a brief tropical storm in the East Atlantic and a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS has at least been pretty consistent on that bit. Given the upper-air pattern, I wouldn't be surprised if the latter disturbance got stronger than the model is forecasting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 27. weatherlover94:


This wave looks serious

SAL and ULLs dominate for now....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 35. MAweatherboy1:
12z GFS 186 hours... TD in the BOC, not much CV action. Still no consistency on anything out there.

Yeah I hate that, meanwhile the FIM has been consistent.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662

Viewing: 90 - 40

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast