An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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MAG is still performing updates...if you have a smart phone or other cell phone with internet you will now be able to run html loops.

In Septemeber the GFS, NAM, and RAP will add 925 mb. temperature parameters and enlarge the South Pacific area to include Australia.

Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8151
Quoting 131. 69Viking:


I remember Opal all too well. Spun up in the BOC and then made a beeline towards our area when the front picked her up. I'm afraid something like that could happend this year for some reason. It won't be good for us to even get a small storm with how waterlogged we are already.

We probably would need to be watching through October, as Opal happened then and the pattern is frequently like that in that month. We will be on the lookout!
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Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.
I will send my prayers to you, and they are powerful..:)
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Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.


Live or die? Sounds serious. There is a company called "lef.org" that has lots of good supplements & research info on things for alt. health - some things docs don't always know about. Staying on topic, so as not to get banned, that might help you stay out of the rain some in Florida as it looks like things will be getting wet there again.

I don't know what upper level winds are as to whether this low poses much threat to develop. Anyone got stats on that?
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Quoting 132. weatherlover94:


I mean do you think they will mention the African wave ?....it already has an area of low pressure with it
no
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
Quoting 102. MississippiWx:
Anything that is in the Gulf in 8-10 days will have the opportunity to turn in a NE direction if the 500mb height forecasts from the ECMWF/GFS are to be believed. This is a deep trough for August being forecast.

The Mets here in Mid TN even mentioned some fall like weather next week. Hurricane Charley was picked up by an unseasonably deep trough for August...The trough shows up well on this satellite image..




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Quoting weatherlover94:


I mean do you think they will mention the African wave ?....it already has an area of low pressure with it


There's still some SAL ahead of it though.
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Quoting 8. tornadodude:
"More wetter and stronger" makes a grammar nut cringe.. lol


Thanks for the update, doc!
What a nerd ... ;)
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Quoting 130. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll come out around 2 pm EDT.


I mean do you think they will mention the African wave ?....it already has an area of low pressure with it
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Quoting 122. opal92nwf:

I've been thinking that probably because we have had more rain than the past few summers (during which we didn't get any hurricanes), we have more of a chance of a tropical cyclone to strike since the storm will be drawn into the trough and weakness that is helping to cause all this rain, although unfortunately for parts of the area here who have problems with flooding.


I remember Opal all too well. Spun up in the BOC and then made a beeline towards our area when the front picked her up. I'm afraid something like that could happend this year for some reason. It won't be good for us to even get a small storm with how waterlogged we are already.
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Quoting 117. weatherlover94:
any thoughts about the 2:00 TWO ?

It'll come out around 2 pm EDT.
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Quoting 103. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah, it's actually typically the opposite. If the East Pacific is active, there is typically a warm neutral or El Niño; this increases wind shear across the Atlantic which further precludes activity. And vice-versa.
Very true ...
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The GFS will come around. It isn't run on a Super Computer for nothing! When it does, then it is game on. Or quite possible it won't be game on, but if it is just know I said it could be first. If it isn't just remember I said first that it might not be.

But I think the 50% probability of it being game on after Aug 15 stands around 20%, if I had to guess. That is based on my gut instinct, which has a 60% skill rating when it is right, which is 10% of the time. With that said, it just takes one storm, sometimes two or more, to make a season memorable. Most likely the GOM system won't develop, but there is about a 80% chance that it will, so we will have to wait and see.

The FIM-7 is the FIMiest of them all, and it says something will get going. And then with the clamp ring present in the GOM in the 10- 14 day timeframe, I think the FIM could be right ... unless it isn't.
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12z, 240 hour, I'm sure S. Texas would like the rain.
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Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.


Yikes, that doesn't sound like fun.
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Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.


Unfortunately life is a terminal desease we have all inherited. Just had a biopsy done myself waiting on the results.
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Quoting 114. hurricanes2018:
1007 mb
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
They ain't using a DELL nor any Kind of PC over there.


Maybe someone should do a lil investigating thru NOAA as to how the System actually works.

Maybe,God forbid, sommeone will do a BLOG entry on it.



All the info is there to be seen and disseminated.

The way some toss Model Images around here does no favors to anyone, esp when they start attaching Storm Names to Ghost images.
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Quoting 111. 69Viking:


Oh yay, more rain for NW Florida!

I've been thinking that probably because we have had more rain than the past few summers (during which we didn't get any hurricanes), we have more of a chance of a tropical cyclone to strike since the storm will be drawn into the trough and weakness that is helping to cause all this rain, although unfortunately for parts of the area here who have problems with flooding.
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Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.


Prayers for you Brother.
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Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.


you are not going to die

we are not done tormenting you yet

:)
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Quoting 101. Grothar:


Conditions aren't quite the same, and I don't really see much of a a surface low. Katrina actually formed suddenly right on the coast between Palm Beach and Broward Counties. We were actually hit by a number of small tornadoes as Katrina approached us in Broward County.





True. It isn't quite the same. I was thinking of how it "blew up" so fast once it got off SW FL in the warm water sauna there.
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Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
-- B U T
"There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20."




I wish Doc had used a different subtitle for this paragraph. :( This is the kind information that needs to be disseminated to colleagues, neighbors, friends and family. Conditions should become acutely conducive, meaning ultimately, folks have about week and a half or just so to have plans made and be ready. Pending the B/A high position and any deep troughing, the odds of land-falling systems are increasing substantially now. NOW IS THE TIME to be ready! :)
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any thoughts about the 2:00 TWO ?
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Quoting 90. 69Viking:


Wow, that's a lot of rain that could be going across South Florida this afternoon and evening!


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Oh yay, more rain for NW Florida!


Could skirt south Florida on it's way
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1007 mb
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Just to clear things up as well I am not going to discredit the hard work NOAA puts into developing these computer models, but some on here think it is exact science and built to perfection, things go wrong power outages where the model is being ran, unsecure updates which I had happen to my computer recently and I had to go back and do a system restore and it was a windows update from microsoft's website. All of these can contribute to glitch and bugs in a computer, if not properly checked.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8151
Dookie it is 100% I'll never respond to one of your posts again.
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Quoting 102. MississippiWx:
Anything that is in the Gulf in 8-10 days will have the opportunity to turn in a NE direction if the 500mb height forecasts from the ECMWF/GFS are to be believed. This is a deep trough for August being forecast.



Oh yay, more rain for NW Florida!
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Thank you Dr. Masters, it will be interesting now that we are starting to put our full attention into the peak of hurricane season! The blog is always better when there is something to talk about in the tropics. (:
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Quoting 104. Gearsts:


I'd say this map takes a little heat off of Scott, RE recent comments he made about something for near the Yucatan.
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Will all 3 of these hot spots combine their energy once over water?
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Quoting 73. FIUStormChaser:



Nothing at the surface:





Hmmmmmmm, hmmmm,....and Lake Okeedokee already is full to the brim, eh? Yeow, this won't help.
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Quoting 8. tornadodude:
"More wetter and stronger" makes a grammar nut cringe.. lol


Thanks for the update, doc!


And here I was thinking that maybe the Doc had visited these islands on his last vacation and some of the "Island Speak" had rubbed off on him: "wet, wetter, wetterer and more wetterer..." ;)

Lindy
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Quoting 98. nrtiwlnvragn:


You do realize that every other agency that does seasonal forecasts also has the same wide ranges.


Are you 100% sure about that? I think there is like a 60% chance that you are correct about 80% of those other agencies.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
Quoting 95. LAsurvivor:


Remembering that I am new, is there any correlation between a strong Eastern Pacific season and a strong Atlantic season?

Nah, it's actually typically the opposite. If the East Pacific is active, there is typically a warm neutral or El Niño; this increases wind shear across the Atlantic which further precludes activity. And vice-versa.
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Anything that is in the Gulf in 8-10 days will have the opportunity to turn in a NE direction if the 500mb height forecasts from the ECMWF/GFS are to be believed. This is a deep trough for August being forecast.

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Quoting 84. WalkingInTheSun:


That looks poised to go through the F-Straits in a path similar to Katrina. Is that correct? I saw high water temps & such like data for that area just yesterday. Katrina flared up rather suddenly off the SW tip of FL. Are there much differet conditions now or do you think we should keep a close eye on this?


Conditions aren't quite the same, and I don't really see much of a a surface low. Katrina actually formed suddenly right on the coast between Palm Beach and Broward Counties. We were actually hit by a number of small tornadoes as Katrina approached us in Broward County.



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Quoting 97. Patrap:
The NOAA Team worked for 18 months with the New Puter, so don't go where you don't know..you could be seriously wrong.

Ok I understand, but it still can take longer than that to work out bugs and glitches. Like just the other day the GFS had trouble loading the images it would go out to 120 hrs. stop and resume at 204 hrs.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8151
Quoting 78. GTstormChaserCaleb:
But you do agree with me right, the GFS has been buggy lately it will run for a few frames stop and then resume and you won't see anything for a few frames and then it picks up after that. Anyways I hope this new upgrade is for the better good in the long run, just not buying what the GFS is and has been showing. By the way the ULL that the GFS said would take 5 days to reach South FL. is now over there, so it got that wrong.


I 100% agree. I have wondered if something had been off programmatically over the last few weeks as well. If you compared GFS performance to years past I'm sure you would see some interesting anomalies. What would be interesting is if post upgrade, they retroactively ran previous data models and see if here were major differences to previous runs.
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Quoting 89. DookiePBC:
"They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median."

I admire NOAA for putting themselves out there with such a bold forecast.

I have also updated my forecast. I predict a 95% chance that there will be between 4-40 named storms, 0-36 hurricanes, and 0-36 majors, with an ACE 10% - 900% of the median. Now keep in mind that I'm only about 50% sure of this.


You do realize that every other agency that does seasonal forecasts also has the same wide ranges.
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The NOAA Team worked for 18 months with the New Puter, so don't go where you don't know..you could be seriously wrong.

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Quoting 89. DookiePBC:
"They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median."

I admire NOAA for putting themselves out there with such a bold forecast.

I have also updated my forecast. I predict a 95% chance that there will be between 4-40 named storms, 0-36 hurricanes, and 0-36 majors, with an ACE 10% - 900% of the median. Now keep in mind that I'm only about 50% sure of this.


I heard on radio this AM that someone was lowering their forecast on named storms for the season.
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Quoting 4. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

"NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones."

We've seen Flossie enter the basin, Gil enter the basin, Henriette enter the basin, and the next system is expected to enter the basin. I'm thinking this prediction will probably bust. As it stands, the ACE index solely for the Central Pacific is at 2.97 units, which is the highest in several years.


Remembering that I am new, is there any correlation between a strong Eastern Pacific season and a strong Atlantic season?
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Quoting 52. washingtonian115:
To my untrained eye that is not a T.D.That is at least a 50mph tropical storm by now.How can they be so conserative.They aren't doing them selves and the public any favors by holding out on others.I feel like they're cheating people.


They measure strength differently. They use 10 minute sustained winds, rather than 1 minute sustained winds. Which makes quite a big difference. But I would think that TD11 was a TS by now, even by their standards. I guess we just have to wait for them to update the intensity.
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Quoting 77. barbamz:
Ahh, the new Friday entry emerged. Thanks, Dr. Masters.
I'll stick to my predicted cane numbers anyway, whatever they were, lol.

Overheated Eastern Europe is starting to get their thunderstorms with the entering cold front now.


Saved screenshot (lightning map with satellite).Source and fresh loop click here



Have a nice afternoon/evening everybody, I have to finish reading a novel now ...


Wow, could Spain and Portugal be anymore free of clouds!
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Quoting 80. nrtiwlnvragn:


Might want to wait until we have an actual Tropical Cyclone that the GFS missed before reaching an opinion on the supercomputer. GFS has not been showing much development and we have not had any.
Believe what you want to believe, but all new computers have to work out their glitches and bugs, they don't come as exactly built to work perfect right off the bat. For now I stick to development in the Western Caribbean and would rather go with consistency than inconsistency.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8151
Quoting 85. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow it is already passing through Florida and into the Straits. I just don't know what the GFS was thinking when it forecasted the ULL to take 5 days to reach that region?


I was just thinking the same think -- amazed that it was already in the F-straits. Can lightning strike twice in the same spot? SST's are high there & it looks headed toward LA??
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Quoting 71. Grothar:


Wow, that's a lot of rain that could be going across South Florida this afternoon and evening!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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