An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 232. WalkingInTheSun:


So, what's to prevent something similar from happening now? Not to say it will, but what does it moving NW have to do with not building up in such warm waters? Not trying to disrespect your knowledge, as apparently I may be lacking some if you think it cannot possibly do anything. I know it is a low, yet it has strong circulation and is building T-storms quite well. I have seen storms build quite rapidly as if from nothing at times, too. WHY can it not be a potential threat. I'm all ears to learn something.


Follow the NHC,as they are the experts.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NE
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM 28N92W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N TO OVER
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W.

AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 84W INCLUDING W CUBA AND S
FLORIDA
.

THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO SUN.
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Quoting 226. seminolesfan:


Like Patrap said, its an Upper Low.
And there is a decent lower level ridge in place beneath it:


This will keep it as an Upper Level Low because the environment below it is predominantly sinking air and hostile to surface low pressure circulation.


That sounds reasonable. Since it is heading over & into hot water, could that lead then to the opposite: rising air & development in the opposite direction? Also, what is the forecast model on that lower level ridge? The forecast on the wind shear is predicted to change dramatically soon, in favor of less wind shear.
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Quoting 231. redwagon:


Left out the best part oops

Bob Rose, LCRA met


Some changes in the weather pattern look to take place next Thursday and Friday when the ridge shifts further west and a deep trough of low pressure develops over the eastern US.

Note the ridge is forecast to be across the west, taking the deepest red colors (hottest temperatures) with it. A deep trough of low pressure is forecast to stretch from eastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. This deep trough is will help push a cold front a cold front south into Texas. Today’s data indicates this front may reach all the way south into Central Texas, possibly further. There looks to be a chance for rain with the cold front next Thursday and Friday. The temperatures should lower a few degrees into the middle 90s behind the cold front.

It’s interesting to note today’s long-range forecast solutions indicate the ridge will remain to our western weekend into the following week. This should limit the development of extreme heat like we’re seeing this week.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
So, lets take the average as posted above by Dr. Masters.
16 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors.

Lets assume that we get the first named on Aug 15.
That leave 11 weeks to the end of October.

For those averages to come to pass, we will need to see 16 named storms in 11 weeks, or one every 5 days or so.
Of which 8 (one every 9 days or so, on average) will be a hurricane, and a major every 3 weeks.

I'm a little dubious.....
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Live shot of Fort Myers Fl. with building lines of Cumulonimbus clouds and T storms in the area.


A significant weather advisory has been issued for Charlotte... Lee
and south central Sarasota counties for a line of strong
thunderstorms with strong wind gusts valid until 345 PM EDT...

At 238 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates a
line of strong thunderstorms located along a line extending from
Cape Coral to 6 miles northeast of Bonita Springs... moving north at
15 mph will affect Captiva. These storms will affect Fort Myers
Beach... Lovers Key State Park and Bonita Springs.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected which can cause unsecured
objects to blow around... snap tree limbs and cause power outages.
Frequent to continuous lightning is expected. To be safe go indoors
immediately. If caught outside... find a low spot... and stay away from
tall objects. Torrential rains will reduce visibility to near zero
and will cause ponding of water on roadways.

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Quoting 219. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. What about the CV season? When it gets going? The models are not too bullish yet as GFS is back and forth and Euro is timid so far.


It's coming. We're probably going to see the central-eastern Atlantic start lighting up by August 20th and onward, after this cold outbreak in the eastern U.S. runs its course. The CFS and CPTEC ensembles are also throwing big signals for a storm north of the lesser Antilles between August 20th and 25th.
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Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12349
Quoting 227. hurricanes2018:



I see the big high setting up on the east coast!!

Anything that out in the MDR will move W bound for the Caribbean

MJO starting to make its way into are area



And looks like its here to stay


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12349
Quoting 198. Patrap:
Katrina exploded over the Loop Current Mid-Gulf, well away from The Fla Coast.



So, what's to prevent something similar from happening now? Not to say it will, but what does it moving NW have to do with not building up in such warm waters? Not trying to disrespect your knowledge, as apparently I may be lacking some if you think it cannot possibly do anything. I know it is a low, yet it has strong circulation and is building T-storms quite well. I have seen storms build quite rapidly as if from nothing at times, too. WHY can it not be a potential threat. I'm all ears to learn something.
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Quoting 176. Houstonweathergrl:
Wow, I actually see big, puffy clouds in the sky today. What a changee!


...shouldn’t be quite as hot over the next couple of days as the strong high pressure ridge slowly begins to loosen its grip on our region’s weather. The high pressure ridge will still be over our region Friday but the ridge looks to begin shifting to the north and northwest this weekend and early next week...

Some of this moisture will reach the Texas coast on Friday, spread inland Saturday through Monday. A swirl of clouds associated with an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere can be seen over the Bahamas. This system is forecast to push inland across Deep South Texas Sunday into Monday, enhancing the chance for rain across the far southern part of the state.

Bob Rose, LCRA met
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
155dm iso here is a decent visualization of the lower to middle ridging in place/forecast.
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Quoting 225. wunderkidcayman:


Nah
There may be a bit of SAL to come off but I don't see a big burst of it any time soon
We'll see if you're right or if that model is right, would make all the difference in the world if we get development out there or not.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Yup more dry air/dust getting into the Atlantic, meaning LESS and LESS chances of formation. Told you guys, that is why the GFS was not showing the formation this time, because most likely it was getting caught up with the SAL.
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Quoting 223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
If the model GeorgiaStormz posted at 183 comes to fruition a fresh batch of African Dust is about to emerge into the Atlantic.



I see the big high setting up on the east coast!!
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Quoting 205. WalkingInTheSun:
Not to sound alarmist-like, but I think anyone in the N & NE GOM should begin considering the possibilities for that Florida Low, as it is not going to allow much time for prepping if it builds, IMO. That could be a good thing, as it may not get much time to build, either, if it does do so.


Like Patrap said, its an Upper Low.
And there is a decent lower level ridge in place beneath it:


This will keep it as an Upper Level Low because the environment below it is predominantly sinking air and hostile to surface low pressure circulation.
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Quoting 223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
If the model GeorgiaStormz posted at 183 comes to fruition a fresh batch of African Dust is about to emerge into the Atlantic.


Nah
There may be a bit of SAL to come off but I don't see a big burst of it any time soon
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If the model GeorgiaStormz posted at 183 comes to fruition a fresh batch of African Dust is about to emerge into the Atlantic.
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Quoting 217. EyEtoEyE:
. So if it is abating , then the wave train will really start !

Well it right on time

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Quoting 214. Levi32:


Well the FIM has it, and the NAVGEM has it. The ECMWF doesn't have it yet, but the ensemble mean has a lot of spread in it in the NW Caribbean in 6 days.





Quoting 216. wunderkidcayman:

NAVGEM and NOAA's FIM



I missed the ECMWF mean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12349
Hi Levi. What about the CV season? When it gets going? The models are not too bullish yet as GFS is back and forth and Euro is timid so far.
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Quoting 198. Patrap:
Katrina exploded over the Loop Current Mid-Gulf, well away from The Fla Coast.



My recollection of Katrina was the buzz in her increases about the point your map shows she hit Cat 3, when she seemed to surprise a lot of people. From my point of view in the NW GOM area, that is rather "off the coast of Fl", lol. Sorry, it is simply due to how far away I am, I suppose.
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Quoting 207. mitchelace5:


Looks that way to me too. Shear seems to be weakening too.
. So if it is abating , then the wave train will really start !
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Quoting 202. GeorgiaStormz:



Is there any other support for a system?

NAVGEM and NOAA's FIM

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Quoting 201. mitchelace5:


Not according to the SPC
Interesting well I always thought an ULL nearby would provide lift in the atmosphere. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if we get an isolated tornado or two later in the day as instability increases from some of the drier air it is bringing down on the north side of it.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 202. GeorgiaStormz:



Is there any other support for a system?


Well the FIM has it, and the NAVGEM has it. The ECMWF doesn't have it yet, but the ensemble mean has a lot of spread in it in the NW Caribbean in 6 days. That's the limit of model support right now. We had none 3 days ago. I think we'll get more.



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August for me, 2/1/0.

SAL is going to continue to be a problem and others factors. Slow year.
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Quoting 195. mitchelace5:


Shear seems to be falling too.

Seem that way

Quoting 199. EyEtoEyE:
by. Hello GT , Is that a TS ,or a Hurricane down by Panama ? If it is a hurricane , how strong do you think it gets , and it's movement?

Just a tropical low in 3 days and look at the arrow and X that gives you where it's going mid that would be NW
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Quoting 208. GTstormChaserCaleb:
As of this instant nothing is down there, except the constant showers and thunderstorms provided by the Columbian Heat Low this time of the year. However, in a couple of days that will be the area of focus as the monsoon trough lifts northward and interacts with the TUTT and possibly a weak tropical wave, all a recipe for development.
. Thank You!
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Thats a ULL..it's is not a threat to anyone.

As its Moving NW.

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Quoting 204. JrWeathermanFL:
My prediction for August is 3/2/0 given the chance for favorable conditions in the latter half all across most of the Atlantic. Maybe even 3/2/1 depending all on the track and speed of the waves off of Africa.
. I look at 4/3/2!
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Quoting 199. EyEtoEyE:
by. Hello GT , Is that a TS ,or a Hurricane down by Panama ? If it is a hurricane , how strong do you think it gets , and it's movement?
As of this instant nothing is down there, except the constant showers and thunderstorms provided by the Columbian Heat Low this time of the year. However, in a couple of days that will be the area of focus as the monsoon trough lifts northward and interacts with the TUTT and possibly a weak tropical wave, all a recipe for development.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting EyEtoEyE:
GT doesn't the SAL look , to abating ?


Looks that way to me too. Shear seems to be weakening too.
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Not to sound alarmist-like, but I think anyone in the N & NE GOM should begin considering the possibilities for that Florida Low, as it is not going to allow much time for prepping if it builds, IMO. That could be a good thing, as it may not get much time to build, either, if it does do so.
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My prediction for August is 3/2/0 given the chance for favorable conditions in the latter half all across most of the Atlantic. Maybe even 3/2/1 depending all on the track and speed of the waves off of Africa.
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Quoting 193. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Three letter acronym...SAL.
GT doesn't the SAL look , to abating ?
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Quoting 182. Levi32:
So far only 4 out of 20 of the GFS EnKF T574 ensemble members show a significant storm in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in 7 days, but the models are gradually picking up on this threat area, as they probably should given the pattern.




Is there any other support for a system?
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Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
With an ULL passing by the straits of FL. I wonder if there is an increase chance of severe weather in south and central FL. today?


Not according to the SPC
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One should go to the SPC page for severe weather threats.
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Quoting 179. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hmm???

by. Hello GT , Is that a TS ,or a Hurricane down by Panama ? If it is a hurricane , how strong do you think it gets , and it's movement?
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Katrina exploded over the Loop Current Mid-Gulf, well away from The Fla Coast.

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Next weekend's attention getter over Sudan/Ethiopia

(didn't know this was going to update to a night picture)
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Quoting 191. Patrap:
With an ULL passing by the straits of FL. I wonder if there is an increase chance of severe weather in south and central FL. today?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=weath er/hurricane&id=8760068







Yep



SAL not gonna be too much of a problem



Shear seems to be falling too.
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Quoting 175. mitchelace5:


Hey wunderkidcayman. What's up, bro?

Rainy thundery conditions here in Grand Cayman and enjoying every moment of it

Quoting 179. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hmm???



Carib storm soon come I'd say it doesn't really pick up till day 6 the NHC should really pick it up

Quoting 182. Levi32:
So far only 4 out of 20 of the GFS EnKF T574 ensemble members show a significant storm in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in 7 days, but the models are gradually picking up on this threat area, as they probably should given the pattern.


Yep

Quoting 183. GeorgiaStormz:
This was a nice 5 Day SAL forecast from GOES





And this is a possible cooldown next week (image by Brad Panovich)




SAL not gonna be too much of a problem

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Quoting 187. wunderweatherman123:
latest run of GFS doesn't show much of CV development, wonder why
Three letter acronym...SAL.
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Quoting 168. Patrap:


If the low develops, there would be a significant differance compared to conditions for Katrina, possibly. Your map shows such hot water temps going in all along the way, fuel for the fire. With Katrina, was that not the case? Katrina began a decline after those hot FL-Straits waters. IF this develops, it might not be so inclined to hold back as it goes further north.
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Quoting 177. PensacolaDoug:




Not likely as a 5.
Coming up the west coast of Florida, shelf waters are shallow and incoming air would have been off of land.

Good point above the shallow continental shelf. With that said a storm to balloon to a category 5 heading towards Tampa or the west coast of Florida (or even taking a Charlie track into Port Charlotte) would likely already have to be a strong or moderate category 4.

With the shallower shelf, the TCHP is subsequently lower there. That is why this time of year the TCHP is always high off the Texas coast south of Galveston down to near Brownsville, TX. That's because the shelf drops over dramatically and will allow a much deeper depth of the 26 degree isotherm.

But with the shallower shelf, the higher the storm surge would be, along with the greater potential damage from a surge. That's why I greatly fear a Isaac like storm barreling into Tampa. Yes, it was only a category 1, but the size of it's wind field was HUGE. A surge from something like that into Tampa Bay coming from the southwest would be hard to comprehend.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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