An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 994.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.4

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 271. moonlightcowboy:


Trying to stay cool! :) Thanks. Good job, you've had some good, informative posts. Keep it up!


We both deal with that same Maritime/Tropical airmass:
[ mT on this one...

]

between LA and FL, so I feel ya on the hotness!


I see you dropping some nice text + graphics posts as well and would like to tip my glass to you as well, good sir.


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This is not a tropical depression! 11W is more than likely a strong tropical storm right now.
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Looks like we are under 5 days now in terms of Caribbean development.



Farther out in time Texas:



Starting to see a trend towards the Western Gulf though as the system may tuck under the ridge and trough bypasses it to the north.
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Quoting 272. ncstorm:


Im just glad its showing something....


That Euro system looks like a cut-off low and not something that comes off of Africa:


120 hrs





144 hrs




168 hrs

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Fort Pierce/ Port St. Lucie just got the first light rainfall from the ULL. At least it will cut down on the heat for this afternoon.
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The daily SOI is back in positive territory, after being negative for most of the past week.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 09 Aug 2013

Average for last 30 days 6.1
Average for last 90 days 8.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 15.5
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Quoting 276. SAINTHURRIFAN:
Hey pat the real season starts tonight in that lovely building on Poydras street. I doubt they will see much of you on the blog tonight lol? Bless you Boys. Cha-Ching.


Coach Payton Returns to His Haus.


Kansas City Gumbo'


We shall be in dat number.
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Quoting 268. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh don't say that I never find your posts annoying. The longer ones shows you were deep in thought and I enjoy reading those. So in short it is where the collision sets up, makes sense to me. Get ready for some more localized flooding today.


ha thanks! I enjoy reading your posts as well!

But yeah wherever the sea breeze collision sets up, easily 2 to 3 inches of rain will be possible and likely very strong or possibly severe cells.

In fact, already to our south:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
256 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FLC015-071-091945-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-130809T1945Z/
LEE FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
256 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...

AT 256 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
CAPE CORAL...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2654 8206 2651 8206 2651 8213 2661 8215
2665 8220 2664 8222 2652 8218 2668 8228
2677 8227 2694 8237 2694 8226 2701 8224
2702 8168 2644 8168 2643 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 160DEG 15KT 2663 8210

$$
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Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
last frame

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Quoting 235. Levi32:


It's coming. We're probably going to see the central-eastern Atlantic start lighting up by August 20th and onward, after this cold outbreak in the eastern U.S. runs its course. The CFS and CPTEC ensembles are also throwing big signals for a storm north of the lesser Antilles between August 20th and 25th.
fish storm or potentially threatning land?
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Good afternoon fellow bloggers! I've been having intermittent showers through out most of today...it may continue for the rest of the day as well.

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I hope everyone excited for some nfl tonight jets vs lions tonight may be geno smith first game !!
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Hey pat the real season starts tonight in that lovely building on Poydras street. I doubt they will see much of you on the blog tonight lol? Bless you Boys. Cha-Ching.
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Quoting 265. wunderkidcayman:


I don't buy it
It could happen if it gets strong enough. I believe 2004 saw some early recurves as well as 2010, 2 analog years to this year.
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Quoting 237. pottery:
So, lets take the average as posted above by Dr.Masters.
16 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors.

Lets assume that we get the first named on Aug 15.
That leave 11 weeks to the end of October.

For those averages to come to pass, we will need to see 16 named storms in 11 weeks, or one every 5 days or so.
Of which 8 (one every 9 days or so, on average) will be a hurricane, and a major every 3 weeks.

I'm a little dubious.....


I think you're forgetting that we've already had 4 storms so far, so that would leave 12/8/4. Plus, we could always see a storm in November/December.

I think the peak of the season will be interesting. I'm pretty sure we'll have some days where we'll be tracking multiple systems at the same time.
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Quoting 256. WalkingInTheSun:


I understand that. Not trying to argue, but the red zone is not dark & high & low pressure areas wax & wane, and conditions change. If so much is for it, would it not take rather little change in its favor for things to be different?


I think it is in a hostile environment(for TC formation) and posted sources for my thought process.

A great learning tool is to make a forecast yourself(don't post it if you don't want to; But, put it on paper for YOURSELF) and see what happens. Then go back and LEARN why your forecast busted.

That is how each met gets his/her EXPERIENCE. :)

Keep asking and learning, but don't forget the step involving listening...
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Quoting 265. wunderkidcayman:


I don't buy it


Im just glad its showing something....
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Quoting 260. seminolesfan:


Thanks, buddy. How ya doing lately?


(I have been trying to include data and info in my graphics posts to entice both seasoned vets and the yearly newbies to understand what is being shown. Feel free to question or embellish upon my musings. )


Trying to stay cool! :) Thanks. Good job, you've had some good, informative posts. Keep it up!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 262. ncstorm:
Euro
192 hours..due North after Africa




Lisa is that you?
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Quoting 171. 69Viking:
Well as my boys would say, I'm off to go to the Alabama Boondocks for a weekend in the woods without cell phones or computers! Talk to you all on Monday, in the meantime play nice and enjoy the tranquility because we all know it's not going to last much longer!


That's how my mother used to refer to (where my sister lived in) Alabama. My sister has since moved and my mother is enjoying where she is now. I have a brother living there too. Have a great time!
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Quoting 259. Jedkins01:


Actually the dry slot has already moved west into the gulf, the PW is back up around 2 inches. But yes the upper low is providing spin, instability, and shear that will aid in the development of strong thunderstorms today. I suspect there is a possibility of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes/waterspouts later today.

The main question is whether or not the sea breeze can penetrate far enough east for this to happen. The southeast flow is pretty strong today, and therefore its tricky as to if the sea breeze will get pinned too close to the coast or if it will make it far enough inland for a collision.

The thing is, even if the sea breeze remains pinned, there exists still a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. However, if the sea breeze collision does occur say over the bay, that's where the tornado threat increases. Also sea breeze collisions lead to ridiculous moisture convergence along with much deeper and longer sustained cells, so rainfall will accumulate a lot more if the sea breeze penetrates.

Yes I know some may find this long post annoying, but I really enjoy local weather analysis. Others are free to blab about local weather analysis as well, the blog is not limited to synoptic scale discussions :)
Oh don't say that I never find your posts annoying. The longer ones shows you were deep in thought and I enjoy reading those. So in short it is where the collision sets up, makes sense to me. Get ready for some more localized flooding today.
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Quoting 262. ncstorm:
Euro
192 hours..due North after Africa





That is not the gfs storm!! That storm that forms later and it doesn't see the gfs storm at all.
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Quoting 237. pottery:
So, lets take the average as posted above by Dr. Masters.
16 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors.

Lets assume that we get the first named on Aug 15.
That leave 11 weeks to the end of October.

For those averages to come to pass, we will need to see 16 named storms in 11 weeks, or one every 5 days or so.
Of which 8 (one every 9 days or so, on average) will be a hurricane, and a major every 3 weeks.

I'm a little dubious.....
greetings Pott. Remember that there will most likely be two or more storms at once to help speed us through the list, but since June, I have scaled back my prediction for the number of storms from 17 to 15. I believe the troughs come October will be frequent, and further south than usual, keeping the northern half of the gulf closed because of shear. I do feel that October will have three named storms, and a couple in November. My crow fork is still in the drawer if I need it..:)
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Quoting 262. ncstorm:
Euro
192 hours..due North after Africa






I don't buy it
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Quoting 249. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Based on what? Danielle, the fourth named storm of 2010, developed in late August. The season ended with 19 named storms. If there was a reason to substantially lower predictions, the forecasting agency would.


Exactly...
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That was a long 21 days, tho!


Quoting Patrap:
There were only like 21 days between K and R in 2005, so things can go downhill fast in Storms in a busy, or Fantastic year.

So they had L M N O P, 5 storms between them.
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Euro
192 hours..due North after Africa




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Quoting 255. Patrap:
There were only like 21 days between K and R in 2005, so things can go downhill fast in Storms in a busy, or Fantastic year.

So they had L M N O P, 5 storms between them.
6 storms forgot Q :P
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Quoting 241. moonlightcowboy:


;) good post.


Thanks, buddy. How ya doing lately?


(I have been trying to include data and info in my graphics posts to entice both seasoned vets and the yearly newbies to understand what is being shown. Feel free to question or embellish upon my musings. )
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Quoting 215. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Interesting well I always thought an ULL nearby would provide lift in the atmosphere. I guess I wouldn't be surprised if we get an isolated tornado or two later in the day as instability increases from some of the drier air it is bringing down on the north side of it.


Actually the dry slot has already moved west into the gulf, the PW is back up around 2 inches. But yes the upper low is providing spin, instability, and shear that will aid in the development of strong thunderstorms today. I suspect there is a possibility of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes/waterspouts later today.

The main question is whether or not the sea breeze can penetrate far enough east for this to happen. The southeast flow is pretty strong today, and therefore its tricky as to if the sea breeze will get pinned too close to the coast or if it will make it far enough inland for a collision.

The thing is, even if the sea breeze remains pinned, there exists still a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. However, if the sea breeze collision does occur say over the bay, that's where the tornado threat increases. Also sea breeze collisions lead to ridiculous moisture convergence along with much deeper and longer sustained cells, so rainfall will accumulate a lot more if the sea breeze penetrates.

Yes I know some may find this long post annoying, but I really enjoy local weather analysis. Others are free to blab about local weather analysis as well, the blog is not limited to synoptic scale discussions :)
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Quoting 242. SuperStorm093:


Yup people can't come to realization that this season will be WAY lower than all the projections.


What if it looks like this in a couple weeks? Sept. 8, 2011
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watch this low!!
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Quoting 243. seminolesfan:

Check #226 again; Seriously, go back up to it...


One thing you have to understand about the graphics posted. Most of them are a 2D representation of 3D environments. They are a slice of the onion of the planet's atmosphere. You have to know which layer your data is focused on and visualize the different layers.

You are looking at high level circulations and clouds.

Understand there is a lot going on in different layers and that is VERY important to the outcome.

This is why weather is HARD to understand. You HAVE to visualize the different layers of the onion...


I understand that. Not trying to argue, but the red zone is not dark & high & low pressure areas wax & wane, and conditions change. If so much is for it, would it not take rather little change in its favor for things to be different?
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There were only like 21 days between K and R in 2005, so things can go downhill fast in Storms in a busy, or Fantastic year.

So they had L M N O P, 5 storms between them.
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This is a test!
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Watch nw carib next week I think there could be a big storm forming!! Big anticyclone
Big tchp here!
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Quoting 239. WalkingInTheSun:


That sounds reasonable. Since it is heading over & into hot water, could that lead then to the opposite: rising air & development in the opposite direction?

Very few things are absolute. It is more about understanding the factors which COULD have an influence and using experience to FEEL which factor should tip the balance of the scales to one direction or outcome vs the other.

An upper low with surface ridging isn't really anything to get excited about. Anything low pressure-y 'trying' to 'dig down' will get FILLED UP AND CANCELED by the predominant high pressure environment.
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K and R 2005 both found da sweet spots.

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Quoting 237. pottery:
So, lets take the average as posted above by Dr. Masters.
16 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors.

Lets assume that we get the first named on Aug 15.
That leave 11 weeks to the end of October.

For those averages to come to pass, we will need to see 16 named storms in 11 weeks, or one every 5 days or so.
Of which 8 (one every 9 days or so, on average) will be a hurricane, and a major every 3 weeks.

I'm a little dubious.....


You skipped the part where we already have four storms.
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Quoting 242. SuperStorm093:


Yup people can't come to realization that this season will be WAY lower than all the projections.

Based on what? Danielle, the fourth named storm of 2010, developed in late August. The season ended with 19 named storms. If there was a reason to substantially lower predictions, the forecasting agency would.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33308
Quoting 237. pottery:
So, lets take the average as posted above by Dr. Masters.
16 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors.

Lets assume that we get the first named on Aug 15.
That leave 11 weeks to the end of October.

For those averages to come to pass, we will need to see 16 named storms in 11 weeks, or one every 5 days or so.
Of which 8 (one every 9 days or so, on average) will be a hurricane, and a major every 3 weeks.

I'm a little dubious.....


As well as many on here. That given nothing is projected by the models for at least 7 days it would be an insane 11 weeks. The NOAA must know something no one else does!
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...CAPTIVA...DON PEDRO ISLAND...FORT MYERS
BEACH...GASPARILLA ISLAND AND MANASOTA KEY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM BONITA BEACH TO 10 NM WEST OF BONITA BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.
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Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
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Quoting 232. WalkingInTheSun:


So, what's to prevent something similar from happening now? Not to say it will, but what does it moving NW have to do with not building up in such warm waters? Not trying to disrespect your knowledge, as apparently I may be lacking some if you think it cannot possibly do anything. I know it is a low, yet it has strong circulation and is building T-storms quite well. I have seen storms build quite rapidly as if from nothing at times, too. WHY can it not be a potential threat. I'm all ears to learn something.

Check #226 again; Seriously, go back up to it...


One thing you have to understand about the graphics posted. Most of them are a 2D representation of 3D environments. They are a slice of the onion of the planet's atmosphere. You have to know which layer your data is focused on and visualize the different layers.

You are looking at high level circulations and clouds.

Understand there is a lot going on in different layers and that is VERY important to the outcome.

This is why weather is HARD to understand. You HAVE to visualize the different layers of the onion...
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Quoting 237. pottery:
So, lets take the average as posted above by Dr. Masters.
16 named, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors.

Lets assume that we get the first named on Aug 15.
That leave 11 weeks to the end of October.

For those averages to come to pass, we will need to see 16 named storms in 11 weeks, or one every 5 days or so.
Of which 8 (one every 9 days or so, on average) will be a hurricane, and a major every 3 weeks.

I'm a little dubious.....


Yup people can't come to realization that this season will be WAY lower than all the projections.
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Quoting 226. seminolesfan:


Like Patrap said, its an Upper Low.
And there is a decent lower level ridge in place beneath it:


This will keep it as an Upper Level Low because the environment below it is predominantly sinking air and hostile to surface low pressure circulation.


;) good post.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 232. WalkingInTheSun:


So, what's to prevent something similar from happening now? Not to say it will, but what does it moving NW have to do with not building up in such warm waters? Not trying to disrespect your knowledge, as apparently I may be lacking some if you think it cannot possibly do anything. I know it is a low, yet it has strong circulation and is building T-storms quite well. I have seen storms build quite rapidly as if from nothing at times, too. WHY can it not be a potential threat. I'm all ears to learn something.


Follow the NHC,as they are the experts.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NE
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM 28N92W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N TO OVER
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W.

AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 84W INCLUDING W CUBA AND S
FLORIDA
.

THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
MEXICO SUN.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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