An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 343. CybrTeddy:


Worth noting that 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 all managed to generate 11+ named storms after this point in hurricane season.
And its worth noting that if this current pattern remains in place, multiple landfalls are possible..I do hope nobody gets whacked with a major.
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I believe Wilma was the fastest forming Cat 5 in the Atlantic Basin (formed in Western Caribbean)





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Quoting pottery:

Currently 92F, humidity 49%.
Some showers yesterday (heavy in some areas)
Rainfall deficit at my location (central T&T) 11'' BELOW average for the year.

There are trees in the hills and valleys that are flowering, that normally flower in the dry season.
It's all very peculiar....

I hope that you'll some well needed rain, so as to wipe out your rainfall deficit.
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Quoting 359. pottery:

Absolutely !
But I kind of strayed off the point I was making originally...

Which is--- 2013 looks to me to be off to a slow start (regardless of the 4 'named storms' so far).
The GOM, the Caribbean sea, the Tropical Atl, are all well below par, in terms of having the potential for Tropical Storm formation right now, and for the next week or so.

I understand the idea that conditions can/will change (we are talking weather, after all) but overall, 12 or so more named storms THIS YEAR will really surprise me.


2013 has gotten off to an above average start. Dorian was historic for when and where He formed. GOM/Caribbean/Tropical Atlantic will all be above average for development soon. All reputable predictors of the season call for an above average to very above average season. These predictors, including the NHC that Jeff mentioned in his blog have been far off before though. Safe to say, more seasons than not, they've been pretty far off from what happens. Off to a slow start, regardless of the four named storms, seems to not mesh. Saharan dust, Caribbean stability, and the quiet GOM currently does back up your statement though. I think 16-20 storms seems likely, but that's the great thing about predictions; anyone can make them and few will be right. We shall see soon enough.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting 384. iloveweather15:
Maybe yellow circle coming 8pm for sw caribbean and a good spin to!!


I doubt that, its about to move right back onto land.
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Quoting 380. Matt74:
I'll say it again. I'll take it up here on the upper Texas coast.

Im right with you
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Quoting 362. Patrap:
Nuttin'..



Pat, wasn't that guy from Frosty The Snowman, narrated by Burl Ives?
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Quoting seminolesfan:


I'm not being too contentious either; But...

Don't you believe that they most likely take the 'improvements in monitoring' into account while making current season forecasts?

I mean we aren't really talking about climatology or past storm numbers or anything. It is a PREDICTION.

It would be silly to base a predictive future dataset on capabilities of the past years' technology, right?
Perhaps we can get Dr.Masters to do a blog on this.
I wonder about the answers to your questions.

I would expect that the forecasters would take into account the tech. improvements. But I have no idea that they do so.
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Lotsa Mojo out mid Gulf.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting 287. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like we are under 5 days now in terms of Caribbean development.



Farther out in time Texas:



Starting to see a trend towards the Western Gulf though as the system may tuck under the ridge and trough bypasses it to the north.
I'll say it again. I'll take it up here on the upper Texas coast.
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Quoting 374. Stormchaser121:

That ULL over in the FL straights....could that develop into a sneak system?


Not showing much spin, but when those things don't move much, anything can happen.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Wave at da Wave everyone..!!


..pushing to Tejas'


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting 358. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You know the next "K" name they retire, they should bring back King. I know of a lot of people name King. Hurricane King has that vibe to it.


Thanks, Caleb, right over my house. :)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Poll time!

We will see a Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

A)Yes
B)No


yes
aug 28 345am
175 miles
south of the isle of youth
heading nnw at 12 mph
max winds 155mph with gusts to 175mph


J/K
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Quoting 371. Grothar:

That ULL over in the FL straights....could that develop into a sneak system?
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373. TXCWC
06Z Hi-Res GFS Ensemble members - not a great deal of gulf storm support yet (have not seen 12Z runs yet)- but the ones that do show seem to show a pretty strong system


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Quoting 359. pottery:

Absolutely !
But I kind of strayed off the point I was making originally...

Which is--- 2013 looks to me to be off to a slow start (regardless of the 4 'named storms' so far).
The GOM, the Caribbean sea, the Tropical Atl, are all well below par, in terms of having the potential for Tropical Storm formation right now, and for the next week or so.

I understand the idea that conditions can/will change (we are talking weather, after all) but overall, 12 or so more named storms THIS YEAR will really surprise me.


I wouldn't say that - 2012 also had even worse conditions for an active season. IMO if the TSR, CSU, and NOAA all combined are still calling for an active season I have difficulty being able to not believe them.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting Tribucanes:


That is very true, the other side of that is past seasons likely had more storms and were under counted.

Probably true as well.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting nigel20:

Hi Pottery! How's the weather in T&T ATM. We've have been having intermittent showers through out today here in Jamaica.

BTW, have you been watching the CPL?

Currently 92F, humidity 49%.
Some showers yesterday (heavy in some areas)
Rainfall deficit at my location (central T&T) 11'' BELOW average for the year.

There are trees in the hills and valleys that are flowering, that normally flower in the dry season.
It's all very peculiar....
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
The leading edge of the ULL is just now moving into Lakeland.


Link
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Maybe yellow circle coming 8pm for sw caribbean for next 5 days not 2 days obviously!!
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Quoting 357. Tribucanes:
Over due for a cat5, I think that'll continue this year though. Wonder what the underlying reasons for lack of cat5 storms is?

Category 5 hurricanes are uncommon outside of West Atlantic and uncommon altogether. Stronger shear from more potent troughs and just a lack of disturbances in the right place in general have precluded a system of this intensity.
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..I shall miss the "Harping" about Harrp though..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Nuttin'..



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Quoting 357. Tribucanes:
Over due for a cat5, I think that'll continue this year though. Wonder what the underlying reasons for lack of cat5 storms is?

Well, HAARP did shut down for lack of funds, so maybe this year we'll see a cat 5. *ducks and runs for cover
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West coast of Florida is exploding with storms (upper level low helping out a bit)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Worth noting that 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 all managed to generate 11+ named storms after this point in hurricane season.

Absolutely !
But I kind of strayed off the point I was making originally...

Which is--- 2013 looks to me to be off to a slow start (regardless of the 4 'named storms' so far).
The GOM, the Caribbean sea, the Tropical Atl, are all well below par, in terms of having the potential for Tropical Storm formation right now, and for the next week or so.

I understand the idea that conditions can/will change (we are talking weather, after all) but overall, 12 or so more named storms THIS YEAR will really surprise me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know the next "K" name they retire, they should bring back King. I know of a lot of people name King. Hurricane King has that vibe to it.
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Over due for a cat5, I think that'll continue this year though. Wonder what the underlying reasons for lack of cat5 storms is?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting 339. pottery:


I don't wish to be too contentious here, but over the past couple seasons we have had some 'named storms' that were, frankly borderline.
10 years ago (or so) they would never have made the cut.
Our improvements in monitoring and assessing real-time situations within the weather systems have certainly come a long way, and have certainly helped to get us to some of the numbers we have today.

I'm not saying that this is a bad thing, but it certainly is helping to raise the numbers.


I'm not being too contentious either; But...

Don't you believe that they most likely take the 'improvements in monitoring' into account while making current season forecasts?

I mean we aren't really talking about climatology or past storm numbers or anything. It is a PREDICTION.

It would be silly to base a predictive future dataset on capabilities of the past years' technology, right?
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Quoting 350. CybrTeddy:


C) No idea, but if we do it'll be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean as most of them usually are seen.


Agreed - Caribbean or GOM.
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Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Poll time!

We will see a Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

A)Yes
B)No


B: No
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353. TXCWC
Quoting 347. Stormchaser121:

Is the FIM 9 still saying Mex?


Don't know yet - the model only goes out 7 days unlike some other FIM models
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Quoting 334. TXCWC:
FIM models showing a large gulf storm...would bring much needed rains to widespread area if came to Texas...hopefully not that strong

FIM 7 shown at 10 days


FIM 9 shown at 7 days


I like 9 better.. we need a TX/XM landfall to distribute rain all over the state.
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Quoting 343. CybrTeddy:


Worth noting that 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 all managed to generate 11+ named storms after this point in hurricane season.
Or this one.

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Quoting 346. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Poll time!

We will see a Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

A)Yes
B)No


C) No idea, but if we do it'll be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean as most of them usually are seen.
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Quoting 339. pottery:


I don't wish to be too contentious here, but over the past couple seasons we have had some 'named storms' that were, frankly borderline.
10 years ago (or so) they would never have made the cut.
Our improvements in monitoring and assessing real-time situations within the weather systems have certainly come a long way, and have certainly helped to get us to some of the numbers we have today.

I'm not saying that this is a bad thing, but it certainly is helping to raise the numbers.


That is very true, the other side of that is past seasons likely had more storms and were under counted.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Over the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons,

2003 had 12 named storms form after today's date.
2004 also had 12, or 11 if you don't count Charlie since it became a depression on the 9th but a storm later.
2005 had 18.
2006 had 6.
2007 had 12.
2008 had 11.
2009 had 9 (its entire seasonal total)
2010 had 16.
2011 had 13.
2012 had 13, or 12 if you don't count Helene for the same reason as Charlie in 2004.

The average of those is slightly over 12. The lesson from this, of course, is that we have a long way to go this season. Plenty of action to come.

Very nice post, MA...thanks for enlightening the blog.
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Quoting 340. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sometimes those desserts are the actual real deal you know, just ask Mitch and Wilma.

Is the FIM 9 still saying Mex?
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Poll time!

We will see a Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

A)Yes
B)No
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Quoting pottery:


What were we talking about again ???

:):))

Hi Pottery! How's the weather in T&T ATM. We've have been having intermittent showers through out today here in Jamaica.

BTW, have you been watching the CPL?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the stuff Right Under Moss

Oh yeah, thanks !

:):))
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Quoting 323. pottery:


Points taken.

Still, it would be a remarkable season if 12 more named storms were to be generated, etc.


Worth noting that 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 all managed to generate 11+ named storms after this point in hurricane season.
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Quoting 327. pottery:

LOL, fortunately, we dont get crows down here.
Vultures, yes.
Do I get to eat one?

We wait, we watch, we consider recipes....
Its cool...Vultures look like bald turkeys with black paint on them. Slap sauce on it. It is wet here. Would like to give Texas some of our flash flooding..

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Radar - Central and S.W. Florida
I'm in South fort Myers. No wonder I almost got hit by lightning.
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Quoting 333. wunderweatherman123:
the models this year will be little help in the long range. once we actual get a system, the models seem to do alright. most of the season will have to come late august to late september with some dessert in october and possibly november
Sometimes those desserts are the actual real deal you know, just ask Mitch and Wilma.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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