An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 487. Levi32:


I believe it ran for a while, but was experimental and only for the CONUS region. I don't know why it's offline right now.
Ohh ok I didn't realize it had ran before. Thanks Levi!
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 483. pottery:


And mostly on the southern side of the range.
There's been rain in the hills, but not a lot.
Right now the streams and rivers are VERY quiet.
People up there are getting concerned, expecting a Deluge soon, to make up.
Immortelles flowering up there, and yellow poui on the highway and the ~Savanna flowering too !

Back later.
Hey how far you guys live from Caura River?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 430. hydrus:
My parents loved Florida very much. I was born and raised there. 2004 and 2005 was the the straw that broke the camels back so to speak, and they moved here to Mid TN 1500 feet in the air hoping never to see one again.


They don't want to see camels ever again?

I know what you mean hydrus. ;)
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Quoting 485. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey Levi, do you know when the 10 km. FIM-95 will be in operation?


I believe it ran for a while, but was experimental and only for the CONUS region. I don't know why it's offline right now.
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Utor is looking extremely healthy. Could make the jump to typhoon within 12 hours of being named a TS.
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Quoting 481. Levi32:


The NHC tends to define the "deep tropics" in the Atlantic as latitudes south of 21N.
Hey Levi, do you know when the 10 km. FIM-95 will be in operation?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, just like the old days.


Keep dreaming...

runs away>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
Quoting DDR:

Hello Pottery hows the road to Blanchisseuse?
Most of the weather has really been up on this end,north to north east.


And mostly on the southern side of the range.
There's been rain in the hills, but not a lot.
Right now the streams and rivers are VERY quiet.
People up there are getting concerned, expecting a Deluge soon, to make up.
Immortelles flowering up there, and yellow poui on the highway and the ~Savanna flowering too !

Back later.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
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Quoting 474. sar2401:

Mik, I don't think Barry counts as a "deep tropics" storm. The BOC is only barely tropical. Deep tropics would be more like 10-15 degrees.


I've noticed the NHC tends to define the "deep tropics" in the Atlantic as latitudes south of 21N. I don't know if there is a formal definition. I usually take anything south of 20N as the deep tropics.
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Quoting 468. weatherlover94:


could have 3 in a row in 5 days


Yeah, just like the old days.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
next Friday...................
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Experimental model.

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Quoting 467. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's a light show outside and booming like crazy!



Was going to drive over to T. Springs for a meeting tonight but think that is off.!!
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Quoting 464. mikatnight:
"4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season."

But there have been three so far. What about Barry? Did anyone else noticed this?

From Doc's July 8 entry:
"...Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N,..."

Just odd he didn't say 3 of the 4 early season storms...

My guess is that he means we've had 2 storms form south of 20°N and east of the Caribbean before August, which is a good sign of an active season to come.
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Quoting mikatnight:
"4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season."

But there have been three so far. What about Barry? Did anyone else noticed this?

From Doc's July 8 entry:
"...Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N,..."

Just odd he didn't say 3 of the 4 early season storms...

Mik, I don't think Barry counts as a "deep tropics" storm. The BOC is only barely tropical. Deep tropics would be more like 10-15 degrees.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Sorry guys I should have added a C) undecided for that poll.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 455. Grothar:
The models are finally coming around to my way of thinking.



They look like spiders...

Creepy, crawly
Creepy, crawly
Creepy, creepy, crawly, crawly
Creepy, creepy, crawly, crawly
Boris the spider!


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ICMOORE,YOU OK THERE?...right on top of you..wow
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Quoting 455. Grothar:
The models are finally coming around to my way of thinking.



could have 3 in a row in 5 days
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Quoting 459. LargoFl:
wow a repeat of last night..
It's a light show outside and booming like crazy!

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Poll time!

We will see a Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

A)Yes
B)No

I have to create a (C), which is I have no idea. Obviously, anyone who picked A for last seven plus years would have been wrong. I have no idea how long we can go without a cat 5 but, like all averages, there's an outlier. The averages say we should have one this year but we may be in an outlier period of ten or even fifteen years with no cat 5's. We don't have records that go back far enough to show how long an outlier could be, just like we don't have records that go back far enough to really know if a cat 5 is really the biggest hurricane we could ever get. We just have to wait and see, since we are creating a new record with each passing day.
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465. xcool
FIM still onboard quite interesting
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"4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season."

But there have been three so far. What about Barry? Did anyone else noticed this?

From Doc's July 8 entry:
"...Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N,..."

Just odd he didn't say 3 of the 4 early season storms...
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Quoting 455. Grothar:
The models are finally coming around to my way of thinking.

Looks liKE we will have something to watch for sure next week
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geez.........
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting 458. ProphetessofDoom:
I've been down here in South Florida for every hurricane since Andrew. Thankfully too far north for the truly damaging winds for Andrew, but Frances, Jeanne, and especially Wilma, were truly scary. Not to mention each left us without electricity for at least a week at a time. But the one I remember the most is Irene (1999, I think!) I remember waking up and checking the models, seeing the cone take the storm up the Gulf Coast, and thinking how completely wrong they were. I went in to work and told my boss that they were wrong and we had no business having school that day. She laughed at me and sent me on my way! Three hours later, they called me in to help get the school emptied, seeing that a hurricane was basically overhead! One of the scariest drives ever!It's also part of the story of how I got my handle! :)
It seems as though models tend to struggle with storms coming up out of the Caribbean that move towards the west coast of FL. probably because of the movement and timing of troughs.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
wow a repeat of last night..
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I've been down here in South Florida for every hurricane since Andrew. Thankfully too far north for the truly damaging winds for Andrew, but Frances, Jeanne, and especially Wilma, were truly scary. Not to mention each left us without electricity for at least a week at a time. But the one I remember the most is Irene (1999, I think!) I remember waking up and checking the models, seeing the cone take the storm up the Gulf Coast, and thinking how completely wrong they were. I went in to work and told my boss that they were wrong and we had no business having school that day. She laughed at me and sent me on my way! Three hours later, they called me in to help get the school emptied, seeing that a hurricane was basically overhead! One of the scariest drives ever!It's also part of the story of how I got my handle! :)
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Quoting 455. Grothar:
The models are finally coming around to my way of thinking.


Good, then!
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Quoting 452. ncstorm:
12z GFS total precip up to 384 hours



That kinda suggests a Houston landfall, maybe a cat 2 tops.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
The models are finally coming around to my way of thinking.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Gonna Head home but that big ULL in the Gulf is really dominating the area with all of the storms and lots of lightening too per the lightning strike loops.

Stay safe this weekend and enjoy it while you can in between the showers in Florida and on the Gulf Coast.

See Yall on Monday..................WW.
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12z GFS total precip up to 384 hours

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Quoting 408. PalmBeachWeather:
Gro...I bought a 1909 SVDB in Charleston SC maybe 1969....I sold it for $60 way back then when I needed the $$$$. It was fine condition


They were great, I bought a used one in 1910.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
There is an even higher resolution FIM-95 that goes down to 10 km. but I guess it is not in operation yet.

Link
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP NEAR AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES
WITH AN AVERAGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDING A CI OF 3.5 OR 55
KT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/14 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...INDICATING A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
48 HOURS...BEFORE A MUCH WEAKENED SYSTEM MAKES A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD
THE WEST. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK EVENTUALLY TAKES HENRIETTE OVER
INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...WITH HENRIETTE WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.5N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.9N 146.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.2N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.7N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.4N 155.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 12.8N 162.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 144.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The barbs over Honduras and Nicaragua are pointing south meaning we have a elongated low
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Quoting 442. opal92nwf:
For the Florida Panhandle area:

Long term [monday through friday]...
the thin upper level ridge will break down as a trough deepens
across the eastern Continental U.S.. this will result in a wetter than
average period with temperatures at or just slightly below
normal.
Tricky forecast in terms of the Western Caribbean/Gulf development.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
444. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Currently 92F, humidity 49%.
Some showers yesterday (heavy in some areas)
Rainfall deficit at my location (central T&T) 11'' BELOW average for the year.

There are trees in the hills and valleys that are flowering, that normally flower in the dry season.
It's all very peculiar....

Hello Pottery hows the road to Blanchisseuse?
Most of the weather has really been up on this end,north to north east.
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Quoting 434. hurricanes2018:
ridging in the northeast to!

I am certainly no expert but if that pattern holds I think the Carolinas and Georgia could be in trouble
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For the Florida Panhandle area:

Long term [monday through friday]...
the thin upper level ridge will break down as a trough deepens
across the eastern Continental U.S.. this will result in a wetter than
average period with temperatures at or just slightly below
normal.
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Quoting 433. PalmBeachWeather:
hydrus....I have been in Florida for 30 years...2004 & 2005 were the worst years for me. Very stressful.
How'd you guys fare during Andrew?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 430. hydrus:
My parents loved Florida very much. I was born and raised there. 2004 and 2005 was the the straw that broke the camels back so to speak, and they moved here to Mid TN 1500 feet in the air hoping never to see one again.

My aunt and grandparents live there although my grandparents were up in their Connecticut house when all the hurricanes hit. My aunt went through all of them including two near direct hits in 2004. She stayed for some reason.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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