An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 531. Camille33:
Gfs needs to be dropped it is a bad model how many time is ecmwf gona be correct!!


Given it hasn't developed a single tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and has done very poorly at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, I'd say they're both becoming quite as useless since their upgrades this year.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
well 12z pretty much dropped the CV systems, I am telling you, LOTS of people are going to bust high this season with numbers, and the ECMWF doesnt show any developments expect a curve RIGHT off the coast.
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This is a rather nasty and large cell. The tornado has likely passed over Oldsmar as we speak.

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Quoting 523. Camille33:
Gfs has dropped all development!!

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Quoting 532. unknowncomic:
06z and 18z runs do odd things. Not as much data inputted.

it still has satelite and radar data !!
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Quoting 523. Camille33:
Gfs has dropped all development!!
06z and 18z runs do odd things except when they say what I want them to say! Not as much data inputted.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
Gfs needs to be dropped it is a bad model how many time is ecmwf gona be correct!!
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Quoting 525. SuperStorm093:
Dud of a run. Hopefully something pops, this is getting very boring.


Perhaps you should log off and do something until we do get something instead of bellyaching? Watching tropical cyclone formation isn't something that happens spuriously and frequently. Please have patience.
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Quoting 526. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I am under a Tornado Warning!!! xD

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 630 PM EDT for northern
Pinellas and northwestern Hillsborough counties...

At 610 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. Located near westchase... or 5 miles northwest
of Tampa International Airport... moving northwest at 30 mph.

The tornado will be near...
westchase.
Oldsmar.
Lake Fern.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are in the path of the tornado go to a small interior room in
a strong and well constructed building. Cars and Mobile homes are not
safe. If no shelter is available... lie flat in a ditch or culvert and
cover your head with your hands.
Keep your video camera handy. Let's see how good a spotter you are.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
Quoting 474. sar2401:

Mik, I don't think Barry counts as a "deep tropics" storm. The BOC is only barely tropical. Deep tropics would be more like 10-15 degrees.
Quoting 475. wxchaser97:

My guess is that he means we've had 2 storms form south of 20°N and east of the Caribbean before August, which is a good sign of an active season to come.
Quoting 481. Levi32:


I've noticed the NHC tends to define the "deep tropics" in the Atlantic as latitudes south of 21N. I don't know if there is a formal definition. I usually take anything south of 20N as the deep tropics.


From Masters' entry for Monday, July 8th:

Chantal: a likely harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season
Chantal's formation on July 8 is an usually early date for formation of the season's third storm, which usually occurs on August 13. A large number of early-season named storms is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season, unless one or more of these storms form in the deep tropics, south of 23.5°N. According to Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, leaders of Colorado State's seasonal hurricane forecasting team,

"Most years do not have named storm formations in June and July in the tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5°N); however, if tropical formations do occur, it indicates that a very active hurricane season is likely. For example, the seven years with the most named storm days in the deep tropics in June and July (since 1949) are 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All seven of these seasons were very active. When storms form in the deep tropics in the early part of the hurricane season, it indicates that conditions are already very favorable for TC development. In general, the start of the hurricane season is restricted by thermodynamics (warm SSTs, unstable lapse rates), and therefore deep tropical activity early in the hurricane season implies that the thermodynamics are already quite favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) development."

Two of this season's three storms have formed in the deep tropics--Tropical Storm Barry, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche at a latitude of 19.6°N, and now Tropical Storm Chantal, which formed at a latitude of 9.8°N. With recent runs of the GFS model predicting formation of yet another tropical storm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands early next week, it appears that the Atlantic is primed for an active hurricane season in 2013.

Jeff Masters
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Quoting 511. Grothar:


You mean this piddly thing?

I spoke too soon, no Vorticity yet.
Still it looks like a Player.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
I am under a Tornado Warning!!! xD

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 630 PM EDT for northern
Pinellas and northwestern Hillsborough counties...

At 610 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. Located near westchase... or 5 miles northwest
of Tampa International Airport... moving northwest at 30 mph.

The tornado will be near...
westchase.
Oldsmar.
Lake Fern.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are in the path of the tornado go to a small interior room in
a strong and well constructed building. Cars and Mobile homes are not
safe. If no shelter is available... lie flat in a ditch or culvert and
cover your head with your hands.
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Dud of a run. Hopefully something pops, this is getting very boring.
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Cyclogenesis in the southern Gulf of Mexico is slowly becoming a rather likely scenario beyond August 15th.
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Gfs has dropped all development!!
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Quoting 519. nrtiwlnvragn:


The first breath you take walking out of Miami International Airport after a trip say to Denver.


LMHO. I know what you mean.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
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Quoting 514. Envoirment:


They increased the intensity forecast a little while ago



Wouldn't be surprised if they did it again. The same thing occured with Typhoon Soulik. It kept intensifying quicker than forecast, so they had to keep upping the intensity forecast for a few days.


Wow, I must have missed this one. I didn't even know about it, thanks.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Quoting 493. Grothar:
That sort of brings up another question. What is the true definition of deep tropical moisture?


The first breath you take walking out of Miami International Airport after a trip say to Denver.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
Quoting 514. Envoirment:


They increased the intensity forecast a little while ago



Wouldn't be surprised if they did it again. The same thing occured with Typhoon Soulik. It kept intensifying quicker than forecast, so they had to keep upping the intensity forecast for a few days.


The track has moved well south of Hong Kong.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
..WaveZilla !!




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
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Quoting 511. Grothar:


You mean this piddly thing?



Pretty sure it's common practice to let you formally declare the "b" word, but if ever there was one...
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Quoting 509. washingtonian115:
So they finally decided to name it when it's nearing typhoon status?.


They increased the intensity forecast a little while ago



Wouldn't be surprised if they did it again. The same thing occured with Typhoon Soulik. It kept intensifying quicker than forecast, so they had to keep upping the intensity forecast for a few days.
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Quoting 504. redwagon:


Are there any mods around? If not I'll post you some pics of Coppertone and Hawaiian Tropic models. The *other* kind of models.



I'll have you know I am a happily married family man.

(If you have to, send them to my WU mail.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
TORNADO WARNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!...............................TORNADO WARNING
FLC057-103-092230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0028.130809T2204Z-130809T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
604 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 602 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR WEST PARK...OR NEAR TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TOWN N COUNTRY...WEST PARK.
WESTCHASE.
OLDSMAR...SAFETY HARBOR.
LAKE FERN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2817 8271 2817 8254 2812 8249 2806 8244
2795 8252 2797 8262 2798 8262 2800 8264
2799 8265 2801 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 131DEG 21KT 2801 8255

$$
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Quoting 502. unknowncomic:
Looks like the real start to the Season to the right on Africa there.


You mean this piddly thing?

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
going to be another very boring run of the GFS.
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So they finally decided to name it when it's nearing typhoon status?.
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508. beell
Quoting 493. Grothar:
That sort of brings up another question. What is the true definition of deep tropical moisture?


South of 20N, north of the equator. Elevation: -5 m msl
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
Quoting 502. unknowncomic:
Looks like the real start to the Season to the right on Africa there.
yes maybe things have begun..mid august is almost here.
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Quoting 496. mitchelace5:


I'm guessing that it has to do with heavy thunderstorms, and deep convection.


Google is your friend :)


It has a very specific definition. It means that lightning/thunder are occurring, AND precip is falling at a rate of over 0.3 inches per hour, or 0.03 inches per 6 minutes at the time of the weather observation.

FYI moderate thunderstorm would include rain falling at a rate of 0.11 to 0.3 inches per hour, or more than 0.01 and up to 0.03 inches per hour.

So it doesn't imply that there is a tornado, or even that the thunderstorm is severe. It just means it is dumping heavy rain. But if you have a severe storm dropping a tornado, then it's quite likely that it is in a heavy thunderstorm, but not necessarily.
Source(s):
training manual, 7900.5B, chapter 11, and figure 11-4.

Deep Convection:

Tropical CycloneA warm-core, non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.
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Quoting 493. Grothar:
That sort of brings up another question. What is the true definition of deep tropical moisture?


Are there any mods around? If not I'll post you some pics of Coppertone and Hawaiian Tropic models. The *other* kind of models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just turned severe...........................
The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Hillsborough County in west central Florida...
Pinellas County in west central Florida...

* until 645 PM EDT.

* At 557 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
Raymond James stadium... or near Tampa International Airport... and
moving northwest at 20 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
largo... Clearwater... Palm Harbor... Tarpon Springs... Dunedin...
Carrollwood... town N country... Saint Pete Clearwater Airport...
Highpoint... westchase... Safety Harbor... Lake Fern... Oldsmar...
Belleair... Belleair Beach... Clearwater Beach... Crystal Beach...
Honeymoon Island and Caladesi Island.

This includes Interstate 275 between exits 28 and 51.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In addition to large hail and damaging winds... continuous cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors
immediately. Lightning is one of natures number one killers.
Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close enough to be
struck by lightning.


Lat... Lon 2808 8282 2806 8279 2816 8281 2816 8256
2802 8242 2783 8250 2784 8256 2796 8256
2797 8266 2798 8262 2800 8264 2799 8267
2796 8267 2794 8271 2788 8258 2784 8258
2784 8266 2792 8285
time... Mot... loc 2202z 127deg 17kt 2799 8253



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Quoting 482. LargoFl:
Looks like the real start to the Season to the right on Africa there.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
501. beell
And then there's this for background info anyway.

The Tropic of Cancer, also referred to as the Northern tropic, is the circle of latitude on the Earth that marks the most northerly position at which the Sun may appear directly overhead at its zenith. This event occurs once per year, at the time of the June solstice, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the Sun to its maximum extent. It currently (Year 2013) lies at 23° 26'15.143" north of the Equator.
Tropic of Cancer

tropic (n.)
late 14c., "either of the two circles in the celestial sphere which describe the northernmost and southernmost points of the ecliptic," from Late Latin tropicus "of or pertaining to the solstice" (as a noun, "one of the tropics"), from Latin tropicus "pertaining to a turn," from Greek tropikos "of or pertaining to a turn or change, or to the solstice" (as a noun, "the solstice"), from trope "a turning" (see trope).
Online dictionary of etymology

Scott Joplin-Heliotrope Bouquet
Heliotrope
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
500. tj175
Quoting 458. ProphetessofDoom:
I've been down here in South Florida for every hurricane since Andrew. Thankfully too far north for the truly damaging winds for Andrew, but Frances, Jeanne, and especially Wilma, were truly scary. Not to mention each left us without electricity for at least a week at a time. But the one I remember the most is Irene (1999, I think!) I remember waking up and checking the models, seeing the cone take the storm up the Gulf Coast, and thinking how completely wrong they were. I went in to work and told my boss that they were wrong and we had no business having school that day. She laughed at me and sent me on my way! Three hours later, they called me in to help get the school emptied, seeing that a hurricane was basically overhead! One of the scariest drives ever!It's also part of the story of how I got my handle! :)




Yeah 1999 I will never forget Irene. She was one of the worst forcasts by the NHC ever and luckily school happened to be out on that day. I remember this especially because when the storm started to turn inland and headed for the metro area my grandmother God bless her soul came to pick me and my sister up just before the weather got really bad in the afternoon. Frances and Jeanne were not bad for my area but Katrina was a shocker to with how strong she got just as she came ashore and then Wilma just took the cake. My parents and many of my relatives said that if and when another category 3 or higher heads toward South Florida they will be leaving just because of what we endured with Wilma.
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Well, before things start getting busy on this blog, I would just like to say thank you to all of the regulars who post intelligent and informative comments. You have all taught me so much about these fascinating and terrifying storms over the past couple years. When things get busy your true intentions become evident, you care for the fellow members of the community. I think you represent the best of humanity. God Bless you all.
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my turn now..booming like crazy,wind and heavy rain...
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Quoting 422. ncstorm:
the models have been showing nothing but lows and troughs exiting off the carolina coasts..just great..welcome back rain..

just have to ask..is there a correlation of the wet pattern on the east coast and TC formation in the atlantic?





Looks like Florida and Lake O caught a break from the rain.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
Quoting Grothar:
That sort of brings up another question. What is the true definition of deep tropical moisture?


I'm guessing that it has to do with heavy thunderstorms, and deep convection.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 481. Levi32:


I've noticed the NHC tends to define the "deep tropics" in the Atlantic as latitudes south of 21N. I don't know if there is a formal definition. I usually take anything south of 20N as the deep tropics.


hey levi do you think that tropical wave will be a tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic
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Quoting 491. redwagon:


Thank you, thank you. Not only two weakish storms ~headed to TX (we Texans would be talking about THAT for the rest of our lives) but that little number right off the coast in the EPAC could be donating moisture to us, too. Thank you, Sir. Each piece of good news like that lessens the knot of drought terror for us, and gives us hope.


I knew you and AtHome would get a kick out of that. Hey, I'm doing my best to find models sending stuff your way.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
That sort of brings up another question. What is the true definition of deep tropical moisture?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting 477. Grothar:
Experimental model.



Thank you, thank you. Not only two weakish storms ~headed to TX (we Texans would be talking about THAT for the rest of our lives) but that little number right off the coast in the EPAC could be donating moisture to us, too. Thank you, Sir. Each piece of good news like that lessens the knot of drought terror for us, and gives us hope.
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Quoting 487. Levi32:


I believe it ran for a while, but was experimental and only for the CONUS region. I don't know why it's offline right now.
Ohh ok I didn't realize it had ran before. Thanks Levi!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.