An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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I have a friend at work that's from the Philippines. I'm not sure which part, but perhaps he could educate me on the building codes in the area, and the structural vulnerability to major typhoons.
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Quoting 2337. MiamiHurricanes09:
It will definitely get close. We'll have to see. An eye this compact is prone to go under an EWRC.

True, but it doesn't have too much longer to go before hitting Cat-5 strength. I hope it does get to category 5 strength.
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2338. yqt1001
Super typhoon is at 130kts, it's getting very close. The very tiny eye will be clear soon.



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Quoting 2336. wxchaser97:

You wanna actually bet that? :P
Yeah I'd say a very good chance of become a Cat-5.
It will definitely get close. We'll have to see. An eye this compact is prone to go under an EWRC.
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Quoting 2331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Category 5 for $100.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2


You wanna actually bet that? :P
Yeah I'd say a very good chance of become a Cat-5.
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Quoting 2331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Category 5 for $100.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2

It finally analyzed a warmer temperature within the eye.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2

Which is funny considering it still isn't positioned within the absolute center/warmest portion of the eye.

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Quoting 2310. AussieStorm:


Not yet, It's just getting started.

Nah, I'd say Utor is most definitely a beast right now. :)
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I'd definitely say it's undergoing another stage of rapid intensification. I'd probably put the intensity somewhere near 120kts.

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Moonlightcowboy, ya I know what your saying. Trying to get those on opposite sides of the AGW debate to change their minds is like trying to find a consensus between the Right and Left in congress. Sorry if I kicked it off with the Yoboi back and forth. I had made my point, I didn't have to continue the back and forth with him. This monster of a typhoon is much more interesting right now and the Philippines are in for some real hurt. Not to mention it's what the majority here want to focus on right now. Oh and Norway, can't leave it out as a popular subject tonight. Respecting what the blog wants is part of being a good member, so I do apologize to everyone if I started the tension with the Yoboi back and forth.

What's the opposite of Congress? Progress.
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Category 5 for $100.

2013AUG11 051500 4.9 967.8 87.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.84 -77.73 EYE 12 IR N/A 15.09 -124.82 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Wrong system.. that system is late next week!!
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Quoting 2327. Socalmargie:
yeah yeah yeah


Whatever you say
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 2327. Socalmargie:
yeah yeah yeah


ok if you say so
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Quoting 2325. Socalmargie:
does that mean no storm then
?


for now
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting 2311. DataNerd:
Evening all. Really was glad when the dorian mess finally ended several weeks back that storm proved very annoying.


Only got time for a short one so basically I will echo what dr masters said in this post, we are looking at a very dangerous season.

Not going to that many fish storms, and given the current pattern it looks like when the season kicks off it will go fast and furious all at once, possibly up to 6 named storms at once is not out of the question given our current global pattern.

Based on the mjo and moisture changes already occurring I fully expect us to see kickoff around the 15th or a few days later.


Make sure you have reviewed your hurricane plans and emergency supplies, and keep your eyes open for the next couple months.

Gn all.


I've been lucky here in southern Florida for 7 years.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 2311. DataNerd:
Evening all. Really was glad when the dorian mess finally ended several weeks back that storm proved very annoying.


Only got time for a short one so basically I will echo what dr masters said in this post, we are looking at a very dangerous season.

Not going to that many fish storms, and given the current pattern it looks like when the season kicks off it will go fast and furious all at once, possibly up to 6 named storms at once is not out of the question given our current global pattern.

Based on the mjo and moisture changes already occurring I fully expect us to see kickoff around the 15th or a few days later.


Make sure you have reviewed your hurricane plans and emergency supplies, and keep your eyes open for the next couple months.

Gn all.


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New TWO is out and it kills GOM system
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Pensacola Doug at least tries to make a counter argument, basing that urban heating in large cities have unfairly been used to measure the rise in global temps. Stating large cities have been warming at faster rates than rural areas with small populations. That's true. Atlanta has been warming very quickly over the last thirty years for the very obvious reasons Doug stated, while more rural towns haven't warmed as quickly. The warming climate numbers scientists use to measure global temps though is global means, encompassing all towns/cities and every other area on the planet for all seasons. The conclusion is concise, the planet is warming at rates not seen in human times because of CO2 output. The North Pole is a perfect example of this, it's warming much faster than other areas, seas are rising, and the Northern Hemisphere's warming has caused the jet stream to change, and it has nothing to do with the number of large heavily populated cities at the North Pole. More moisture/heat equals more extreme floods and more extreme droughts. It's a pretty simple equation: as more CO2 is released temperatures can but rise. Doug stated CO2 levels are at the low range of where plants can survive. That's true. For many animals, insects, fish, that's not the same story.
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Quoting 2315. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P

What time do the FIM models come out?
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Quoting 2315. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P


Dude - rioting? LOL. When it gets tense I mostly avoid reading the crossfires (posts) until the shooting stops. Easier that way. Avoidance is key :) But yes, coast is clear...I think.
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Quoting 2315. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P

Rioting? Wow. I guess I missed quite a bit when I was away for the day! :P
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Quoting 2314. BaltimoreBrian:


Norway is NOT in the EU. Norwegians voted it down in 1994.


You are quick! Was trying to verify. Good to know Wiki was correct.

On that note, it's past my bedtime. Good night all.
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Is the rioting over and is it safe to come out now? :P
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Quoting 2309. LAbonbon:


So they are in the EU? Huh-Wiki was incorrect.


Norway is NOT in the EU. Norwegians voted it down in 1994.
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I hope people know that a major disaster might be happening to the Philippines and then Hong Kong if this is right!!
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We will have massive disaster if this is right wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

New model has a massive hurricane barreling into Hong Kong!! This is the strongest cyclone on the model I ever seen!!
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Evening all. Really was glad when the dorian mess finally ended several weeks back that storm proved very annoying.


Only got time for a short one so basically I will echo what dr masters said in this post, we are looking at a very dangerous season.

Not going to that many fish storms, and given the current pattern it looks like when the season kicks off it will go fast and furious all at once, possibly up to 6 named storms at once is not out of the question given our current global pattern.

Based on the mjo and moisture changes already occurring I fully expect us to see kickoff around the 15th or a few days later.


Make sure you have reviewed your hurricane plans and emergency supplies, and keep your eyes open for the next couple months.

Gn all.
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Quoting Ameister12:
What a beast!



Not yet, It's just getting started.
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Quoting 2307. sar2401:

Norway had two things happen, one good luck and the other smart economics. The good luck was the finding of large amounts of oil and gas in the its sovereign waters in the North Sea. Exporting about $160 billion a year in oil is a big deal for a country the size of Norway, and has allowed to maintain a lot of social programs that would have been impossible without oil revenue. All that oil money and relatively high wages has also allowed the Norwegian government to tax everything that moves. :-)

The smart economic move was joining the EU but not adopting the Euro. The Norwegian Kroner is one of the most stable currencies in the world, and they're not stuck having to pay off the debt of Greece, Portugal, and all the other sick men of Europe. The only cloud on the horizon is a looming real estate bubble that is very large compared to the population. That will be a major challenge over the next 10 years.


So they are in the EU? Huh-Wiki was incorrect.
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Quoting 2301. LAbonbon:


Here you go. Yeah, on the order of 15 in.

Link


Thanks, watched the whole thing. They had it worse than we did, I'd hate to see 15 inches again here in Nashville. The first time was enough drama.


With that I'm off. Good night blog.
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2307. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Norway's looking better and better. No debt. Helipad in every backyard. Humanitarian attitude. And scrumptious ligonberry treats on every table.

Norway had two things happen, one good luck and the other smart economics. The good luck was the finding of large amounts of oil and gas in the its sovereign waters in the North Sea. Exporting about $160 billion a year in oil is a big deal for a country the size of Norway, and has allowed to maintain a lot of social programs that would have been impossible without oil revenue. All that oil money and relatively high wages has also allowed the Norwegian government to tax everything that moves. :-)

The smart economic move was joining the EU but not adopting the Euro. The Norwegian Kroner is one of the most stable currencies in the world, and they're not stuck having to pay off the debt of Greece, Portugal, and all the other sick men of Europe. The only cloud on the horizon is a looming real estate bubble that is very large compared to the population. That will be a major challenge over the next 10 years.
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What a beast!

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whooo hoooo I was able to mow all three acres today in one fell swoop without interruption from rain.
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Quoting 2303. moonlightcowboy:
I tell ya, you folks that non-stop yak about AGW/Climate Change, pro or con, and seem to enjoy your snide comments to one another are going on ignore. Enough already! Make a cognizant civil post and shutup!

I know we're in a lull, but sheesh, give it a rest!

I agree. The snide comments about the models and weather are far, far superior. :)
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I tell ya, you folks that non-stop yak about AGW/Climate Change, pro or con, and seem to enjoy your snide comments to one another are going on ignore. Enough already! Make a cognizant civil post and shutup! Someone might actually enjoy reading commentary and learning something if the comments weren't so danged snarky!

I know we're in a lull, but sheesh, give it a rest!
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Please don't quote the Whackos.

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Quoting 2298. Astrometeor:


No, I might have gone to bed. Can you give me the link? But I did hear they got something around 16 inches. Is that true?


Here you go. Yeah, on the order of 15 in.

Link
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Quoting 2294. unknowncomic:
Utor looks powerful.


It is indeed a nasty looking piece of weather. Best wishes for the safety of all those in its path.
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Quoting 2296. LAbonbon:


Hey Astro - did you see that NWS web briefing I posted last night about the MO flooding? Seemed like something you'd like (non-tropical)


No, I might have gone to bed. Can you give me the link? But I did hear they got something around 16 inches. Is that true?
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Quoting 2293. TropicalAnalystwx13:
UW-CIMSS ADT just went through the roof, courtesy of Utor's "dreaded" pinhole eye.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
You just had to post this a minute before me huh? LOL
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Quoting 2291. Astrometeor:


Hey Astro - did you see that NWS web briefing I posted last night about the MO flooding? Seemed like something you'd like (non-tropical)
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And just as expected, Raw T-values from ADT skyrocket now that we have an eye present.

2013AUG11 040000 4.6 973.7 79.6 4.6 4.6 6.7 MW ON OFF OFF -25.57 -77.84 EYE/P -99 IR 52.2 14.91 -125.05 SPRL MTSAT2 28.9

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Utor looks powerful.

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UW-CIMSS ADT just went through the roof, courtesy of Utor's "dreaded" pinhole eye.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Looks like the best this run can come up with 1012 low in the Central Atlantic. May develop 50-55W.

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The Etn model almost seems like the cyclogenesis run that the other FIMs use for start-points.

FIM seems to be out-running GFS all around.
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