An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 648. ncstorm:
last frame on the 18z Navgem

Can't wait for that system to form so I can serve a whole garage full of crow to those downcasters who are calling this season a bust. And I seriously hope Texas gets a Tropical Storm with rain that can fill up their reservoirs that's my biggest wishcast and I don't see it as a bad thing either.
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Quoting 686. SunriseSteeda:


In summer, I miss the cool dry nights of winter and leaving the windows open all the time. And I love driving in this weather. Or rather my beast of a car does.

In winter, I miss the crash of thunder, the wind tangling up my chimes on the back porch and the drenching, cleansing rain. I hate driving in this weather. And my car does too.
We've had only one significant heat wave this summer compared to 2012's never ending of them.We almost crashed the record for 100 degree days recorded but fell I think 4 or three days short.This year a whole different story.We have heat here and there.but not as significant as last year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
Quoting 684. Astrometeor:


As long as you spell correctly (taz is exception) and sound sane (except for your bust forecast, no offence) I'm fine. Perhaps everyone else has had a mediocre day today, not sure.



Whoops...love ya Washi.



By the way "offence" makes you un-American :-) (ha ha)
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Quoting 612. ackee:
Well for those who are saying the seasons is a bust pretty much Do have a strong point the GFS have been on and off with development interesting show no development nearing the end of the month while the EUro has been right so far showing No development. THE FIM is not a reliable model and personal I would not put much faith on that model ultimately mother nature will have the final say
Ackee... the average first hurricane day in the ATL is 10 August; I have personally been in this blog while we had 4 TCs at once in the basin in August, and during a September when we had 8 storms. If you examine the record, you will notice that somewhere around 70% of TCs happen between 10 Aug and 10 Oct. I wouldn't be so quick to say the season is a bust before 30 September.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22071
Quoting 670. washingtonian115:
Well I can't say I've really been interested in this hurricane season from the start..So I could really care less about what happens or not.I just want winter and fall to come all ready.


In summer, I miss the cool dry nights of winter and leaving the windows open all the time. And I love driving in this weather. Or rather my beast of a car does.

In winter, I miss the crash of thunder, the wind tangling up my chimes on the back porch and the drenching, cleansing rain. I hate driving in this weather. And my car does too.


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Quoting 665. Socalmargie:
I'm new to the east coast and would like to know how bad might it get here this month?


It really depends on whether or not your area is in the vicinity of a storm or not. Your particular area has had a lot of tropical storms historically, and a few 'major' hurricanes. Best advice, keep an eye on WU's tropical page for updates, and make sure to do all your hurricane prep now, and have a hurricane kit ready.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 681. SuperStorm093:


Some people take this stuff WAY to serious. I have no goals, its called a blog. I am just talking weather and what I think would happen. This blog would be boring if everyone just agreed with everyone.


As long as you spell correctly (taz is exception) and sound sane (except for your bust forecast, no offence) I'm fine. Perhaps everyone else has had a mediocre day today, not sure.

Quoting 679. washingtonian115:
Please for the love of god STOP quoting him.He's accomplished his goals and by the looks of it as long as people are week minded enough to fall for the trap he will continue to stir up the blog.Stop feeding the dang thing.


Whoops...love ya Washi.
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Quoting 679. washingtonian115:
Please for the love of god STOP quoting him.He's accomplished his goals and by the looks of it as long as people are week minded enough to fall for the trap he will continue to stir up the blog.Stop feeding the dang thing.


You do realize that the "entertainment" comes from not the trolls, but the regulars that freak out about it :)

Kind of like racism and other forms of classification and intolerance, if people stop pointing out the difference, and if people stop pointing out that people are pointing out the difference, it will die away into insignificance, as will the t r o l l s (shhh) ;-)


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Quoting 668. mitchelace5:


Just one question. Where are the MDRs located?
MDR stands for main developement region. This is primarily the Cape Verde area, after the waves have come off africa.
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Quoting 679. washingtonian115:
Please for the love of god STOP quoting him.He's accomplished his goals and by the looks of it as long as people are week minded enough to fall for the trap he will continue to stir up the blog.Stop feeding the dang thing.


Some people take this stuff WAY to serious. I have no goals, its called a blog. I am just talking weather and what I think would happen. This blog would be boring if everyone just agreed with everyone.
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Quoting 657. Astrometeor:


I understand that Naga, I'm well aware of how easy it is to change information on Wiki. But my point was more along the line that Wiki has been trying to make it harder for false info to remain on their page, I've seen things last from a few minutes to a couple hours.

Thanks for the tip, though. Not sure why I've never done that before.


Excellent point. All research, related to weather or not, should not stop at the first source, but at least the other sources that it cites from. Else you get a possible skew interpretation of actual fact from the initial author(s). I usually go at least to the citations from a wiki article (if I am not crawling through scholar.google.com that is), and if possible, to any of IT'S citations.


Source: *moan* Grad students have to research and write *alot*.
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Please for the love of god STOP quoting him.He's accomplished his goals and by the looks of it as long as people are week minded enough to fall for the trap he will continue to stir up the blog.Stop feeding the dang thing.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
Evening everybody...

Quoting 610. Stormchaser121:
Would yall quit getting into these childish arguments?? Please?
I love the adjective... "childish"... no actual age imputed thereby.... lol

I admit I am hoping the interesting things hold off for another 5-7 days, because I want to be at home again in my comfort zone so I can monitor things properly. I'm enjoying my travels, but it sure takes a toll on any serious wx watching...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22071
Quoting 673. TheDawnAwakening:



What is an opinion without support? Still an opinion? An opinion has some sort of credence for one to believe in it. Models are there for guidance, and what they show is an increasingly favorable environment for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, MJO is becoming favorable, along with the upper level lows moving out of the picture. The upper low in the central Atlantic will move out with the next trough, eating away at the Western fringe of the Azores ridge. Models are forecasting better ridging to replace the eastern us troughing in roughly 10-15 days, but I think it happens sooner maybe around the 16-20th, where we will see our first signs of development, although there is signs of cyclonic surface turning around 10-20n and 30-40w, however shear still remains high to the east of the Lesser Antilles. So rit now it's a wait and see process, but there are signs a more favorable Troical Atlantic is coming to fruition, it will take a other seven to ten days before its really favorable.


I said we would see first developments after the 20th/
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Quoting 655. ncstorm:
Even though the CMC operational isnt showing anything in the GOM..some of the ensembles are..its not always the operational model that you should be looking at..



Is the CMC seriously trying to get something spinning in the Gulf of California? Pretty sure that would be the first storm of its kind if it happened.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:



What is an opinion without support? Still an opinion? An opinion has some sort of credence for one to believe in it. Models are there for guidance, and what they show is an increasingly favorable environment for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, MJO is becoming favorable, along with the upper level lows moving out of the picture. The upper low in the central Atlantic will move out with the next trough, eating away at the Western fringe of the Azores ridge. Models are forecasting better ridging to replace the eastern us troughing in roughly 10-15 days, but I think it happens sooner maybe around the 16-20th, where we will see our first signs of development, although there is signs of cyclonic surface turning around 10-20n and 30-40w, however shear still remains high to the east of the Lesser Antilles. So rit now it's a wait and see process, but there are signs a more favorable Troical Atlantic is coming to fruition, it will take a other seven to ten days before its really favorable.


Let's not forget the dry air either.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 671. Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN



No surprise.....thinking about taking a couple weeks off and coming back to see if anything has changed...chances are i'll see the same message 2 weeks from now :P
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Quoting 656. SuperStorm093:
Unlike some trolls, even though I am not, I am just an avid weather fan, I will admit when I am wrong if that happens. I am just stating my opinion, not everyone is going to agree on this being a great season, that is what makes the world go round, I am not saying you guys are wrong either, because nothing has happened yet really. Let it play out and in the end we can talk.



What is an opinion without support? Still an opinion? An opinion has some sort of credence for one to believe in it. Models are there for guidance, and what they show is an increasingly favorable environment for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, MJO is becoming favorable, along with the upper level lows moving out of the picture. The upper low in the central Atlantic will move out with the next trough, eating away at the Western fringe of the Azores ridge. Models are forecasting better ridging to replace the eastern us troughing in roughly 10-15 days, but I think it happens sooner maybe around the 16-20th, where we will see our first signs of development, although there is signs of cyclonic surface turning around 10-20n and 30-40w, however shear still remains high to the east of the Lesser Antilles. So rit now it's a wait and see process, but there are signs a more favorable Troical Atlantic is coming to fruition, it will take a other seven to ten days before its really favorable.
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672. Skyepony (Mod)
Extreme Weather in USA on Friday, 09 August, 2013 at 12:55 (12:55 PM) UTC.
Description
Rescue crews are busy in Cortland Thursday night into early Friday morning. Widespread flooding after massive thunderstorms in the area has forced the closure of several roads. Members of the Marathon Fire Department evacuated people stranded in Wal Mart on Route 13 with an Airboat. So far officials say more than 60 people have been evacuated. We received word at 12:15 am that Route 13 in Cortlandville has been re-opened to traffic. Bob Hutchings and Jeremy Warfield work at the Wal Mart in Cortlandville. "It's scary. I've never seen it this bad. I've lived here all my life," says Hutchings. "I look in the parking lot, you got cars which are halfway underwater. You got cars which are halfway underwater, I parked over there. Walking up there you got the fan boats and you gotta be kidding me. It's not anything you think would happen," says Warfield. Their co-worker Danielle Toussaint was inside when the flooding happened. "It sort of happened really fast, it was raining for only a couple hours and then one of the employees said the parking lot is flooding and the next thing we know is the whole store is flooding and we're evacuating," says Toussaint. The Cortlandville Fire Department, alongside several others throughout the area evacuated 70 people from the Walden Place Retirement Home next to the Wal-Mart and brought them to the Cortland Regional Medical Center where the Red Cross was on stand by to assist them in the sudden transition. Jared Gebel is the Deputy Fire Chief in Cortlandville. "Tonight everything happened all at once. And it spread us out, usually when these instances happen it's on one side of town or the other. But tonight the entire Southern half of Cortland County got it all at once," says Gebel. Everyone has bee rescued in Cortlandville and there have bee no reports of injuries.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
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Well I can't say I've really been interested in this hurricane season from the start..So I could really care less about what happens or not.I just want winter and fall to come all ready.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
I think the rest of the way we will see:

7-9 TS
4-5 Hurricanes
2 Majors ( 1 of which will affect parts of the Us )

Just my opinion, and that is a good season in my opinion, just not as much as the NHC predicted.
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Quoting scott39:
Maps show that Upper level wind shear conditions are going to be very favorable around August 20th in the Atlantic MDR. I think we may come close to breaking a record, of how many TCs form in the last 2 weeks of August through September. Hurricanes are coming.


Just one question. Where are the MDRs located?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 659. TomTaylor:
Cody, this season is a bust.

Evidence:



Heh, the only "evidence" comes December 1st.

Until then, everything is "predicted" or "speculated upon" :)
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Quoting 659. TomTaylor:
Cody, this season is a bust.

Evidence:

Exactly. :)
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664. Skyepony (Mod)
At least six people died as sudden gales and hail hit eastern China today morning, while three others were injured. "From 2 am to 4 am Friday, strong winds and hail battered Dangshan and Xiaoxian counties in Anhui, destroying houses, forcing road closures and disrupting the power supply," Anhui Provincial Civil Affairs Department told state-run Xinhua news agency. Six people died after strong winds uprooted trees that fell onto their houses. Those injured were taken to a local hospital.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting 651. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody who thinks this season is going to be a bust has any evidence on why they think that, I'd like to see it. Otherwise, quit spitting out statements with little reasoning.


You know my forecast Cody. Albeit it was more of a joke forecast than a serious one, but that was because I know nothing about the tropics and I didn't want to roll with the above-average bandwagon.
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Quoting 645. opal92nwf:
Here, this might cheer some of you up:

TWC: Tropics Starting to get Active?



Although with a storm comes the risk of damage to life and limb in the worst case, and a nominal bit of preparation in the best case, it would be nice to see a decently-sized storm threaten our area (SoFla).

Before anyone jumps on me, I am not a wish-caster. I do not wish to be hit by, nor anyone else to be hit by, a dangerous storm. (That said, Andrew, Frances, Katrina, Wilma... all thrilling)

However, since this is a danger that is a permanent feature, relative to our time on this planet, it is better if we are reminded of it now and then, so that we are best prepared.

That is... it's been too quiet. Complacency sets in. Complacency is dangerous.

On the light side... I haven't had to cut back my banana trees and inspect/repair my 2nd story roof fascia in quite some time. This is not necessarily a good thing. If we had annual storms, I would have noticed one section of my house that needed repair, instead of become host to 10s of thousands of africanized honey bees for several months.

In any case, a decently strong storm nearby would be an excellent motivation for me to groom my property ;-)



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All the evidence in the world can still be wrong, years in the past, there was PROOF that it would be a slow season, and it was an active one, and the other way around. People have to go with their gut's on this and see things going on.
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Maps show that Upper level wind shear conditions are going to be very favorable around August 20th in the Atlantic MDR. I think we may come close to breaking a record, of how many TCs form in the last 2 weeks of August through September. Hurricanes are coming.
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Quoting 651. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody who thinks this season is going to be a bust has any evidence on why they think that, I'd like to see it. Otherwise, quit spitting out statements with little reasoning.
Cody, this season is a bust.

Evidence:
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Wow, I come on here after a long day, first day back to school for our kids, and I spent it showing five years olds how to jump, skip, etc., to test if they could do it, am exhausted and all I see is grown ups arguing. And yet the one person who asked if there were any vets here gets his post ridiculed and his post deleted. Really? Personally, I'd rather read someone helping one of our veterans out than adults arguing over trolls.

It's down to 99 degrees here now with a chance of rain tomorrow. I'm crossing fingers and toes we get some.
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Quoting 654. Naga5000:


The reason wikipedia is not a valid source is that it can be highly inaccurate, however, I'll give you a good tip. The citations within wikipedia to the actual sources/published papers are great tools when needing to do background research on your topic. :)


I understand that Naga, I'm well aware of how easy it is to change information on Wiki. But my point was more along the line that Wiki has been trying to make it harder for false info to remain on their page, I've seen things last from a few minutes to a couple hours.

Thanks for the tip, though. Not sure why I've never done that before.
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Unlike some trolls, even though I am not, I am just an avid weather fan, I will admit when I am wrong if that happens. I am just stating my opinion, not everyone is going to agree on this being a great season, that is what makes the world go round, I am not saying you guys are wrong either, because nothing has happened yet really. Let it play out and in the end we can talk.
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Even though the CMC operational isnt showing anything in the GOM..some of the ensembles are..its not always the operational model that you should be looking at..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15260
Quoting 644. Astrometeor:


I wish more of my teachers would utter that phrase. Wiki needs a PR campaign.


The reason wikipedia is not a valid source is that it can be highly inaccurate, however, I'll give you a good tip. The citations within wikipedia to the actual sources/published papers are great tools when needing to do background research on your topic. :)
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Quoting 647. LAbonbon:


Astro - I accidentally gave you a 'minus', when I meant to hit the plus button. (My bad!) Interesting link. I was thinking about you w/ all that weather going through your way.


It's okay, it happens to me. I once ! one of Masters posts, my finger twitched the mouse a little two far over, lol.

My church is very close to the severe flooding in those pictures, pastor called to tell my father (runs the church finances) that we had 1 inch of water in our lower level. Not so bad as the Baptists down the street near "Dry Creek". Apparently they got 5 feet of standing water in their basement.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody who thinks this season is going to be a bust has any evidence on why they think that, I'd like to see it. Otherwise, quit spitting out statements with little reasoning.


Thank you sir!
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
If anybody who thinks this season is going to be a bust has any evidence on why they think that, I'd like to see it. Otherwise, quit spitting out statements with little reasoning.
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Quoting 646. SunriseSteeda:


Heh heh, why do some act like their eyeballs will catch fire and burn out if someone quotes someone considered a troll?

All these years and I do not have a single filter. I haven't hidden or reported a single post nor ignored a single user. And be sure, I have read almost every blog entry over the last many years.

Just like the path of life is entertaining *because* of all the bumps and misdirections and challenges, so it is true for reading in general, and blogs to be specific.

This is not a weather information feed. It is a blog. It would be a good time to read up on what the actual definition purpose of a web log aka "blog" actually is.

"Indeed, bloggers do not only produce content to post on their blogs, but also build social relations with their readers and other bloggers". It is an informal social networking technique. Key words "informal" and "social".



The point being... I personally *like* reading the troll posts and the responses the illicit. It amuses me to no end when I can often tell someone's maturity level by how much they bicker. It's... entertainment. Part of why I lurk here :)

So in one place (this blog), I am able to consume valuable weather information and read interesting discussions, learning an awful lot from those that freely share their knowledge and opinion, but also with some "filler" mixed in to make it less... boring? Educational? Stodgy?

It costs me nearly NO energy to skim or absorb off-topic stuff. I am not sure why others exaggerate, except for wont of drama (is that it??).

It's not like every other message is an advertisement for "Work At Home! Earn Big Pay!" or something.
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Quoting 630. Gearsts:
I have people in ignore and you go and quote them! Please DON'T quote trolls.


Sorry Gearsts, I would do the same thing as Teddy does. Only if the person is especially egregious would I not quote and correct. Plain ignorance is fine by me.

Radar Pic of Rainy City USA:

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last frame on the 18z Navgem

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15260
Quoting 642. Astrometeor:


I've already started. Going to be sad yet happy come May. But right now, hardly any time for WU. Must study and fill out college stuff for them weather schools.

Massive Flash Flood around East Nashville yesterday


Astro - I accidentally gave you a 'minus', when I meant to hit the plus button. (My bad!) Interesting link. I was thinking about you w/ all that weather going through your way.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 630. Gearsts:
I have people in ignore and you go and quote them! Please DON'T quote trolls.


Heh heh, why do some act like their eyeballs will catch fire and burn out if someone quotes someone considered a troll?

All these years and I do not have a single filter. I haven't hidden or reported a single post nor ignored a single user. And be sure, I have read almost every blog entry over the last many years.

Just like the path of life is entertaining *because* of all the bumps and misdirections and challenges, so it is true for reading in general, and blogs to be specific.

This is not a weather information feed. It is a blog. It would be a good time to read up on what the actual definition purpose of a web log aka "blog" actually is.

"Indeed, bloggers do not only produce content to post on their blogs, but also build social relations with their readers and other bloggers". It is an informal social networking technique. Key words "informal" and "social".

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Here, this might cheer some of you up:

TWC: Tropics Starting to get Active?
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Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weather Underground's season maps do not take into consideration post-season changes. Andrew was upgraded to a Category 5 Florida landfall a decade after it dissipated.

They're actually pretty unreliable. I suggest using Wikipedia's.


I wish more of my teachers would utter that phrase. Wiki needs a PR campaign.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Yep is getting annoying and i can't enjoy the blog.


Me too.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 609. whitewabit:


in all states ..


I've already started. Going to be sad yet happy come May. But right now, hardly any time for WU. Must study and fill out college stuff for them weather schools.

Massive Flash Flood around East Nashville yesterday
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
I see a favorable GOM and Caribbean Sea tracking cyclones in late August it no September as high pressure begins to dominate the western Atlantic and eastern US allowing a zone of lower pressures to exist across Caribbean Sea and GOM. Models are showing better upward vertical motion coming into the Caribbean and MDR and East Atlantic regions come late August and I say tropical activity begins around August 16th. This will not be a dull season, and the upper level low over Cuba moving westward is showing signs that this region of the Atlantic will become more favorable for hurricane development. Be patient as this will likely be the only lull in activity until early October.

Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Ah.. no problem
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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